Criticisms regarding the length of games and pace of play are likely to continue being a focus for commissioner Rob Manfred as he continues to court a younger audience. Baseball games themselves remain MLB’s main product. Increasingly, however, access to that product has become an issue — an issue that could dwarf any pace-of-play problems in the coming years. As more consumers ditch cable, the lifeblood of Major League Baseball television revenues, fewer fans will have access to MLB games. Access is particularly important in the playoffs, where games receive the most national attention, and MLB’s decision in recent years to broadcast multiple games from it own MLB Network have limited viewership. However, MLB’s decision this season to offer a free preview of the network during the first week of the playoffs appears to have paid off.

There was once an outcry when playoff games moved from network television to cable, but that battle — to the degree that it ever existed — has been long lost. The World Series still airs on FOX, but both League Championship Series now appear exclusively on cable, as does the Division Series. Baseball isn’t alone in this regard, either. While the NFL, with its relatively light postseason schedule (only 11 games total), has managed to avoid moving games to cable, the NBA broadcasts both of its conference finals on cable networks. The NCAA’s championship games for both basketball and football, meanwhile, are found on channels that require a cable subscription. MLB’s decision to use its own network represents a bit of a difference case, however, than either of these.

MLB Network has been carrying playoff games for multiple years now, but with just 30-some posteason games available, the decision to remove two of them from wider circulation on standard cable packages — in essence to promote the league’s network — is a bit of a gamble, representing the equivalent of a healthy advertising investment. Broadcast networks are available in roughly 95% of television households, so putting a game on FOX renders it almost universally accessible to all baseball fans. Moving from FOX to say ESPN, TBS, or FS1 lowers that number to around 75-80% of television households. While that number might not be ideal, the number of subscribers approaches 100 million and reaches a vast majority of fans — both those who already fans of the game, as well as those who might be in the future. MLB Network lacks those numbers.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2016-17 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including more corner outfielders.

Other Players: Erick Aybar / Jose Bautista / Rajai Davis / Ian Desmond / Dexter Fowler / Carlos Gomez / Matt Holliday / Austin Jackson / Jon Jay / Matt Joyce / Brandon Moss / Mike Napoli / Angel Pagan / Wilson Ramos / Kurt Suzuki / Justin Turner / Chase Utley / Luis Valbuena / Neil Walker / Matt Wieters.

Steve Pearce (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Pearce:

• Has averaged 337 PA and 2.4 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 4.3 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 2.0 WAR in 302 PA in 2016.
• Is projected to record 2.7 WAR per 600 PA**.
• Is entering his age-34 season.
• Made $4.8M in 2016, as part of a deal signed in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Pearce.

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Let’s pick it up in the bottom of the sixth, shall we? In a decisive Game 5, the Nationals held a 1-0 lead, and they were looking to stretch it. With two outs and someone on first who can run faster than you can, Ryan Zimmerman knocked a double to the left-field corner, and the Nationals’ third-base coach got aggressive. He waved Jayson Werth around, figuring that an insurance run would be absolutely massive. An out and, well, you tried, and you’ve still got the late lead. Werth gave it what he could.

That’s Werth at the bottom, running his tail off. Coach Bob Henley isn’t even looking anymore, now that the matter would be out of his hands. By this point he must’ve had a suspicion. Based on my calculations, the break-even rate here was 35%. That is, it made sense to send Werth around third if you thought he’d be safe at home at least 35% of the time. With the throw coming from just past third base, it looked like Werth would be safe at home about 0% of the time.

The camera has panned, and you don’t see the baseball. That’s because the baseball is in the glove of the catcher, and Werth is maybe, what, two-thirds of the way to the plate? Less than that? Werth is out. He’s so out. Baserunners are practically never this out. Werth is so out he might’ve given brief consideration to turning around. Until just a few years ago, a play that developed like this might’ve at least resulted in an exciting collision. Collisions are easy sells to the members of an average audience. Runners used to have one way out. That way was dangerous, and sometimes electrifying.

Werth stopped. He didn’t stay stopped — he went to the trouble of closing the distance. But Werth gave up. He was out, and he knew it, and he accepted it, and the Nationals still had the lead. So concluded a thrilling baseball sequence, by which a casual baseball viewer might not have been thrilled.

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This is the follow-up to the poll post I just ran. In that post, I surveyed the audience — that’s you! — to see which 2016 playoff teams you think are most likely to not make the playoffs a year from now. That goes toward addressing a question we get very often in late-season chats. There’s a related question we get almost as much: Which bad teams will make the playoffs a year from now? That’s what this poll post is about. Once again, there’s a poll at the end, and it allows you to select multiple options if you so choose.

I expanded beyond the usual group. Frequently, when I get this question, I’m asked about the teams that finished in last place. I wanted to include more teams, mediocre teams, so I set my cutoff at .500. The way I figure, it wouldn’t be a surprise if some half-decent 2016 team made the 2017 playoffs. It’s more surprising when you’re talking about a team or two that most recently lost more often than they won. Below, there are 14 teams, with small captions. When you’re through that, please vote! I’m not asking for your specific playoff odds. I just want to know who you think is most likely to make the playoffs, if any of these teams should make it at all. Forward we march.

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We run a lot of chats and live-blogs around here, and I find that there’s one particular question that consistently comes up every September and October. By that late in the season, either the entire playoff field has been determined, or it’s been almost determined, and there are always people wondering which playoff teams we think are due to struggle in the following summer. People seem to love teams in transition — those transitioning from bad to good, and those transitioning from good to bad. Maybe especially those transitioning from good to bad.

I’m going to tell you right here: This post isn’t about my opinions. I haven’t thought this question all the way through, and I probably won’t until we’re at least a part of the way through the winter. As far as my work responsibilities are concerned, the 2016 season is still alive, and I need to mostly focus on that. But I wanted to run this post for you, because I’d love to see what the audience thinks. At the end of this post is a poll, a poll that allows for multiple answers. I want to see which playoff teams the community thinks *won’t* make the playoffs in a year. I love to crowdsource, and it feels like it’s been a while since I’ve done it.

Before we get to the poll, of course, I’ll list the 10 playoff teams from 2016, along with a few sentences about what could lie ahead. I want to remind you again that the poll will allow multiple answers. I’m repeating this because our polls almost never do that, and I don’t want people to vote with the wrong idea about what they’re doing. Onward! To the playoff teams!

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Over time, teams take on the characteristics of some of their key players in the minds of analysts and fans. The Rays are eternally linked with Evan Longoria, known for power taking precedence at the plate, with a focus on defense. Similarly, Ryan Braun is the poster child for the Brewers, a bat-oriented player without a material defensive presence.

This week and next, let’s allow the players themselves to fade into the background, and draw some conclusions from a simple set of numbers — namely, each of the 10 playoff clubs’ team ball-in-play (BIP) statistics, broken down by exit speed and launch angles. We’ll examine what made these teams tick during the regular season and allowed them to play meaningful October baseball.

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Earlier this morning, I wrote about the exploitable advantage the Indians’ offense ought to have against Blue Jays pitching in the ALCS, in that Toronto’s been notoriously susceptible to allowing stolen bases this season, while Cleveland’s notoriously successful in stealing bases themselves. And, while it’s not always true that good base-stealers are also good baserunners, it’s the logical line of thinking, and in this particular instance, it’s true.

We host a stat here on FanGraphs called Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which filters out stolen base attempts and focuses just on a player’s ability and efficiency in taking the extra base on hits and tagging up on fly balls. As a team, the Indians rank second in baseball in this measure, behind only the historic Padres. On an individual level, Jose Ramirez was baseball’s best baserunner. Rajai Davis ranked seventh, among 268 batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin, and Carlos Santana were all soundly above-average, and in fact, Mike Napoli and Chris Gimenez are the only members of Cleveland’s postseason roster that were soundly below-average at taking the extra base.

For more context, the league-average in taking the extra base on a hit is 40%. Cleveland ranked second, successfully taking the extra base on 45% of their hits, when possible. They led baseball in scoring from second on a single, doing so 129 times in 184 opportunities. Ramirez did this 18 times, while taking the extra base in 60% of his opportunities. Francisco Lindor scored from second on a single 17 times. There’s either speed, baserunning instincts, or a combination of both, all throughout Cleveland’s lineup.

This is simply one of the tents of this Cleveland team. Been that way all season. Nothing new here. Like the stolen bases, it only becomes interesting in the context of the upcoming series when you consider the opponent.

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