Christian Yelich Has More of His Angles Covered

The consistency of Christian Yelich throughout his first three major-league seasons, each with identical wRC+ figures of 118, was both promising and, in some ways, perhaps maddening. On the one hand, a hitter with a 118 wRC+ is a good hitter. Especially at such a young age. On the other hand, Yelich has been a ground-ball machine, and with his 6-foot-4 frame, the adjustment to bump up the production a few ticks has seemed so obvious. He doesn’t have to be a slap hitter, and yet he largely has been. And, as with Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer, that inability to adjust — to hit the ball in the air with even slightly greater frequency — has been somewhat confounding.

Unlike Hosmer, Yelich has taken a step forward this year. Our own Jeff Sullivan took early notice of some changes back in May. Yelich was laying off low fastballs, getting himself more good pitches to hit. He was doing a better job of turning on the inside pitch, and a better job of using those offerings to create loft. For the year, Yelich has dropped his ground-ball rate by six points, and while that’s one of the larger decreases across the game, Yelich’s still putting the ball on the ground more than almost anyone.

But then this past week, Yelich showed something else new. You’ll be able to see it rather clearly in this image. Yelich’s already doubled his career-high in home runs, with 18. Here’s the first 15, from before last week, and then you’ll see three new ones pop up in the week since:

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Danny Duffy on Pitching (and Not Overthinking)

Danny Duffy has had his ups and downs since being drafted by Kansas City in 2007. Many of the former have come in the past 12 months. The 27-year-old southpaw made three relief appearances for the Royals in last year’s World Series and has a ring to show for his efforts. This season, he has emerged as a dominant starter. Duffy is 11-2 with a 3.13 ERA, and his game log includes a 16-strikeout gem.

His resume includes rocky moments, as well. He’s undergone Tommy John surgery, shoulder woes, and more than a little inconsistency. The issues have been mental as well as physical. Duffy admits to having gotten inside his own head at times. He’s put too much pressure on himself, and an early-career soul-searching session even resulted in him walking away from the game for a few months.

Duffy talked about the road he’s traveled, and where he is today, when the Royals visited Fenway Park in late August.

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Duffy on why he’s been able to take a step forward: “That’s an interesting question. I’m just trying to keep it simple, man. It’s that battle I’ve tried to conquer for a while. When you don’t make the game so difficult… it’s hard enough already. I’m kind of just trying to use my stuff for what it is and not trying to be better than I am.

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Jose De Leon Looked Exactly as Advertised

Jose De Leon made his debut over the weekend and he allowed four runs in six innings to a mediocre Padres lineup. Though he came away with the win, it would be easy to scan the box score and conclude that he probably didn’t deserve it. Just another amped-up rookie going through some major-league jitters. It’s not an uncommon course of events. The first time for everyone ought to be a freebie.

The Dodgers, though, would tell you that De Leon pitched better than that. And even the box score itself would tell you that De Leon pitched better than that. Along with the four runs, De Leon whiffed nine without issuing a walk. Of course, yeah, it was just the Padres. And you don’t ever want to allow four runs. No one’s quite sure when De Leon is going to start again. But the reality of his debut is that he looked exactly as advertised. There are reasons why De Leon has never been traded.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/6/16

9:02
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02
Paul Swydan: Jeff may be late, but we’ll get started.

9:03
Paul Swydan: Trying out my Gamechanger priority list. It has me on STL-PIT right now, I assume because the LI > 2.

9:03
Spenny: Bottom of the ninth, down one, you can send up one batter to lead off: Trea Turner or Billy Hamilton?

9:04
Paul Swydan: Turner, easily. I want the guy who has the higher chance of getting to first base. I’ll worry about the rest after.

9:04
Carrotjuice: Does Dan Szymborski no longer do chats for Fangraphs?

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FanGraphs Audio: A Shrine to Incompetence with Dayn Perry

Episode 680
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the idiot guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 54 min play time.)

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Effectively Wild Episode 949: 2016’s Contract Turnarounds

Ben and Sam banter about MLB’s copycat comedians, then discuss players whose big contracts seem much more movable (or unmovable) after perception-altering 2016 seasons.


NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, September 06, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Sanchez (162.1 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Cessa (36.2 IP, 109 xFIP-)For much the same reason these same two teams were featured yesterday, they appear here again — largely owing, that is, to the considerable consequences of each of Toronto’s games right now. The author has expressed this previously in terms of the club’s probability of winning their division (51%) or qualifying for a wild-card spot (37%) or doing neither. At his site, The Baseball Gauge, Dan Hirsch provides another means by which to understand the same concept — namely, by championship leverage index (CLI). Just as leverage index measure the import of a particular moment in a game (where 1.0 is average and greater than 1.0 equals greater import), CLI measures the import of a game relative to a club’s chances of winning the World Series. The Blue Jays currently possess the league’s highest mark by this measure, a 2.31. Boston is second (2.28). And even Toronto’s opponent tonight, the Yankees, feature a slightly above-average figure (1.04).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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It Doesn’t Get Much More Exciting Than Trea Turner

I read new baseball stories every day, and I forget most of them the instant I’m finished reading them, but I remember many of the players and anecdotes that taught me something I hadn’t thought about before. One of the stories that’s stuck with me is the tale of Carlos Gomez’s transformation. Gomez has always been fast, and because Gomez has always been fast, he was instructed earlier in his career to try to put the ball on the ground. Gomez, eventually, figured out he’d be better by tapping into his power, instead of trying to be a speed-only player. Fast players commonly end up being trapped. They run well, so that just ends up the focus.

You’re not going to find Trea Turner in a trap. An excerpt from an enjoyable article by Jorge Castillo:

[College coach Elliott] Avent isn’t the only confidant to relay this kind of advice to Turner. If not bunt, at least focus on putting the ball on the ground, the consultants advise. If the Washington Nationals’ rookie sensation can do that, he can leg out a few extra hits, the theory goes. And the more he’s on base, the more he can terrorize defenses with his speed. Turner listens and scoffs.

“People tell me that,” he said. “And I’m like, ‘Shut up.’?”

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An Early Look at Middle Infielders in the 2017 MLB Draft

This is a series of scouting thoughts on high-school prospects eligible for the 2017 MLB Draft based on observations from summer showcases. Today’s positional group is middle infielders. Links to other positional groups appear below.

Previous editions: Catchers / Left-Handed Pitchers.

If this is the first post in the series that you’re checking out or just need a refresher, the players who have full paragraphs below are listed in the order I prefer them based on my summer looks. That order will very likely undergo changes between now and June. This year’s group of middle infielders is a little cloudy. The top two prospects for me who are arguably capable of playing SS/2B are likely to be picked at other positions; other than those two players, the group lacks a splashy talent worthy of top-10 or -15 consideration.

Scarce though quality shortstops may be, we’ve been fortunate to have at least one talented enough to merit top-20 consideration in each draft this decade (’10: Manny Machado, ’11: Francisco Lindor: ’12: Carlos Correa and Addison Russell, ’13: J.P. Crawford, ’14: Nick Gordon, ’15: Brendan Rodgers, ’16: Delvin Perez would have gone top 10 if not for failing his pre-draft drug test and Gavin Lux went 20th overall), but that streak may end this season. Players “of note” in the second section are listed in alphabetical order.

Royce Lewis, ATH, J Serra HS (CA)

Height: 6’2, Weight: 188, Commitment: UC Irvine

Lewis played all over the place throughout the summer and is such a good athlete that I think, with time, he could make it work at whatever position he was asked to, save for maybe shortstop. I like him best in center field but also saw him work at second base, where his actions, especially around the bag, are raw but workable. Regardless of position, I think his bat is worthy of first-round consideration. I’ll talk more about Lewis when we cover the outfielders because that’s where I think he ends up, but there’s a non-zero chance he’s drafted as an infielder and I wouldn’t disagree with it.

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An End-of-Summer MLB Legal Update

Like any multi-billion dollar business, Major League Baseball is consistently defending itself from at least a handful of different lawsuits at any given time. And while we at FanGraphs attempt to keep you, the loyal reader, appraised of any major happenings in these cases, throughout the year a number of less noteworthy developments occur in these suits that, while potentially significant, nevertheless do not warrant a standalone write-up of their own.

The purpose of this post is to update you on several such recent developments in two ongoing lawsuits against MLB, those challenging the league’s minor-league pay and fan-safety practices, respectively.

Minor-League Wage Litigation

Back in July, I discussed the significant victory that MLB secured in the litigation challenging its minor-league pay practices under federal and state minimum-wage law. Specifically, as I noted at the time, the court refused to certify the case as a class-action lawsuit due to several important differences between the work experiences of, and compensation received by, minor-league players.

Given the significant setback that this decision represented for the minor-league players — removing more than 2,000 players from the case — it appeared inevitable that the plaintiffs would seek to have the decision overturned on appeal. Rather than immediately pursue an appeal to a higher court, however, the plaintiffs have instead opted to take a second crack at convincing the trial court to approve the case for class-action status.

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