The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.
In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.
*****
Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
This represents now Allen’s eighth appearance among the Five proper, the best such mark among all players besides Sherman Johnson, for whom the author has exhibited irrational exuberance and for whom the author will likely continue exhibiting irrational exuberance. As for Allen, on the other hand, most exuberance for him at the moment can be supported reasonably well. Since his promotion to Double-A Akron in late July, his plate-discipline numbers have eroded in the way one would expected of a batter who’s facing more difficult competition. His isolated-power figure has actually increased, however.
Regard, those last two sentences in the form of a table:
Greg Allen, High-A vs. Double-A
| High-A |
432 |
13.4% |
11.8% |
.104 |
| Double-A |
65 |
6.2% |
13.8% |
.155 |
| Difference |
— |
-7.2% |
+2.0% |
+.051 |
A brief examination of the facts reveals that the league-average ISO marks for the (High-A) Carolina and (Double-A) Eastern Leagues are .128 and .129, respectively — basically identical, in other words — which indicates that Allen’s greater number in the latter isn’t merely a product of a more potent run environment.
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