August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 7/26/16
| 12:07 |
: hey!
|
| 12:07 |
: let’s chat
|
| 12:07 |
: while listening to Beck’s Mellow Gold
|
| 12:13 |
: OK, sorry. Let’s start for real.
|
| 12:13 |
: Hello, friend!
|
| 12:13 |
: Hi, Bork!
|
Projecting Rockies Power-Speed Threat David Dahl
Before debuting yesterday for Colorado, 22-year-old outfielder David Dahl had recorded a smooth .307/.389/.562 between Double-A and Triple-A this year, including a torrid .456/.508/.886 showing in his short stint at Triple-A. Dahl possesses an exciting combination of power and speed. The former 10th-overall pick belted 18 homers in the minors this year while also swiping 17 bases. Dahl’s 20-plus-homer power is a relatively new addition to his skill set, but it’s not as though he hasn’t shown glimpses of it before.
Dahl has plenty going for him in the power and speed departments, but his strikeout numbers are some cause for concern. He whiffed in 25% of his plate appearances in Double-A last year, and didn’t really improve in that area this season. Much this year’s improvement can be traced back to his sky-high .388 BABIP, while the underlying contact issues linger.
Dwelling on Dahl’s contact rates almost feels like nitpicking, however, especially since his strikeout numbers are trending in the right direction. All in all, Dahl has an awful lot going for him. Whether you look at his stat line or his scouting reports (such as the one published today by Eric Longenhagen), it’s very easy to envision him sticking as a quality everyday center fielder.
My newly revamped KATOH projection system is a big believer in Dahl. My stats-only model rates him as the #12 prospect in baseball, while my KATOH+ model — which also integrates Baseball America’s prospect rankings — placed him at #14. They foresee 9.0 WAR and 11.1 WAR, respectively, over Dahl’s next six seasons.
Scouting Rockies Call-Up David Dahl
Outfielder David Dahl’s (dahl?) ascent to the major leagues, at which level he debuted last night for Colorado, has been relatively swift considering he missed just about all of 2013 with a hamstring injury and a huge chunk of 2015 with a ruptured spleen. That missed development time — in concert with Colorado’s unenviable affiliate situation — has made Dahl difficult to evaluate and project. In four pro seasons, Dahl has spent time with clubs in Grand Junction, CO; Asheville, NC; Modesto, CA; Boise, ID; New Britain, CT; Hartford, CT (but not actually in Hartford because that club doesn’t actually currently possess a home park); and Albuquerque, NM.
Pro scouts with area- or league-based coverage had a difficult time getting in-depth looks at Dahl because of the unusually nomadic nature of his career. His tools haven’t been difficult to evaluate (and they’re impressive), but what has been hard to grasp are Dahl’s secondary skills. He came into this season with a career walk rate around 5%, but Dahl has doubled that this season and it’s hard to discern if those improvements are real.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument and in effort to discern his floor, that Dahl’s newfound plate discipline is a mirage. Steamer has him regressing to a walk rate just shy of 6%. We’re still talking about a plus runner with a plus arm (his throw to nail Josh Naylor at the plate in the Futures Game was particularly impressive) who projects as a plus defender in center field. Impact defense at a premium position is often sufficient to justify playing everyday, even if the bat is light. Punchless though they may be, black-hole center fielders like Ender Inciarte (.242/.309/.319), Billy Hamilton (.251/.299/.351) and Kevin Pillar (.259/.390/.382) are all comfortably above replacement level this season. Dahl’s defense, though not on the elite level of Hamilton and Pillar, is strong enough that the offensive bar he’ll need to clear to play every day is relatively low.
Dahl sports plus bat speed and good bat control, but his ability to hit is undermined by some of the effort in his swing and inconsistent pitch-tracking. His swing can get long at times because of how early he extends his hands, which causes some tardiness. I’ve also gotten some reports that question Dahl’s ability to hit anything on the outer half with authority, though he’s adept at taking those pitches to the opposite field and his bat path aids in that. There’s above-average pull power here — and it will undoubtedly play up in Denver. It just remains to be seen how much of it Dahl will get to if I’m correct about his swing-and-miss issues.
NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, July 26, 2016
July 26, 2016
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at New York NL | 16:10 ET
Martinez (114.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (111.1 IP, 59 xFIP-)
When a dream is deferred, it dries up like a raisin in the sun. When your cousin Ezra’s admission to Columbia is deferred, he cries while playing Call of Duty for like five or eight hours. When a major-league game is deferred, the clubs frequently schedule it as part of a doubleheader the next day. Hence, the Cardinals-Mets game — postponed last night by inclement weather — will be played as part of a doubleheader today.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL.
Do the Rays Have a Special Home-Run Problem?
by Eno Sarris
July 26, 2016
Home runs are up! Okay, you’ve noticed that. But here’s a wrinkle: the Rays’ starters have been hit especially hard. Especially in the starting staff. Only the starters for Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh have suffered a greater increase in home runs per nine innings — and those staffs had more turnover. These Rays starters were supposed to be the club’s strength, but the gopher ball has eaten a hole into their value. Why?
To answer, we’ll have to look at the tendencies of the team and the league and the pitchers themselves. I asked Drew Smyly and Chris Archer for help figuring it out, too.
“We’ve all noticed. We’re all talking about it,” said Smyly. “Max Scherzer is giving up 22 home runs, and he’s filthy! Our whole staff has given up like 20 a piece. It’s weird.” I agreed.
But even just establishing as fact that the Rays have been harder hit than other teams is tricky. If you look at home runs per fly ball for the starters, for example, the Rays’ starters have improved actually, from 19th in the league to 23rd this year, even as their HR/FB has risen. It hasn’t risen as badly as other teams have seen around the league!
If you look at the starters with the biggest difference between their projected home-run total and actual, though, the Rays zoom to the top. Smyly is fifth, Archer ninth, Moore 17th, and Odorizzi 34th. They were projected to give up some home runs, but then they got it much worse than the projections suggested they would.
Projecting the Prospects in the Aroldis Chapman Deal
You’ve undoubtedly heard about the Chapman blockbuster by now. Yesterday, lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen gave his take on the prospects involved. Below, I outline what my newly revamped KATOH projection system thinks about the youngsters headed to the Yankees. I also go on to compare that group to the group the Yankees sent to Cincinnati last December in exchange for Chapman’s services.
Note that I’ve included two types of KATOH projection. KATOH denotes the newest iteration of my projection system, outlined yesterday. KATOH+ denotes a version of that same thing which also accounts for Baseball America’s prospect rankings.
*****
Gleyber Torres, SS (Profile)
KATOH Projection: 5.6 WAR
KATOH+ Projection: 7.1 WAR
Although he’s just 19, Torres has been one of the more productive hitters in High-A this year. The Venezuelan shortstop is slashing .275/.359/.433 on the year, with an impressive nine homers and 19 steals. In addition to his offensive exploits, Torres plays an uber-premium position and plays it well.
Effectively Wild Episode 931: Cubs Add Aroldis, Chris Sale Slices Laundry
July 25, 2016
Ben and Sam banter about the Hall of Fame and Jon Lester, then discuss Chris Sale’s jersey tantrum, Shelby Miller trade rumors, and the Cubs-Yankees Aroldis Chapman deal.
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Scouting the Prospects in the Aroldis Chapman Deal
I first laid eyes on Gleyber Torres in 2014 at the Rookie-level Arizona League. He was just about a year removed from signing a $1.7 million bonus the year before and, along with Eloy Jimenez, was that summer’s headliner in Mesa. Torres was polished for his age but he was slight of build and his tools were relatively muted compared to some of the other players from the 2013 J2 class. I put a 45 on him at the time, lacking confidence in his ability to find that happy medium where he could become physical enough to do some damage with the bat while also remaining at shortstop. Since then, things have gone about as well as anyone could have hoped. Torres’ body matured rapidly and he began to make more authoritative contact while retaining a contact-oriented approach and enough range to remain at shortstop. For now.
Torres has above-average bat speed and makes good use of his hips and lower half throughout his swing, allowing him to make hard ground-ball and line-drive contact to his pull side and back up the middle. He can also drive fly balls the other way, though doing so sucks some of the torque out of Torres’ swing and he doesn’t have the raw strength in his wrists and forearms to poke balls into the right-field bleachers regularly. He has solid feel for the barrel and, despite some effort, finds a way to make hard contact with pitches in various parts of the zone. He’s hitting .275/.359/.433 in High-A ball at age 19 (he turns 20 in December) and all signs here point to a future plus hit tool.
Is Odubel Herrera a Good Defensive Center Fielder?
A year ago today, baseball fans outside of the Delaware Valley were first introduced to a rookie outfielder on the worst team in baseball. His name: Odubel Herrera. You may recall that Herrera was a Rule 5 pick who had been a second baseman in the Rangers organization only to find himself named the Opening Day center fielder for the Phillies due to the, how shall we say, less than ideal nature of their 2015 roster. He didn’t find immediate success and received inconsistent playing time during the first half, so it wasn’t until July 25th that he appeared on the national stage. In what ended up being Cole Hamels’ final start in Phillies red, Herrera made one of the more iconic final outs in a no-hitter.
When the ball was hit, I remember knowing it would be a home run. When I realized the wind was going to keep it in the park, I remember knowing Herrera wasn’t going to be able to backtrack and make the catch. When I saw him make the catch, I remember knowing that baseball is unknowable and I should really stop pretending otherwise.
Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat 7/25
| 2:01 |
: Good day, sirs and madams. I’m just finishing writing up the prospects in the Chapman deal so give me a few minutes… |
| 2:01 |
: I also require liquid refreshment. |
| 2:01 |
: Also, holy crap there are a lot of you here. |
| 2:07 |
: OKay, let me start by plugging some stuff and letting you know that, after hitting Chicago for the Under Armour game and getting back home to AZ last night, I was forced to eat salad for breakfast. It was really terrible. |
| 2:08 |
: So here’s the link to my Bregman callup piece: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-astros-call-up-alex-bregman/ |
| 2:08 |
: Dahl callup piece has been filed and is just waiting for editing. Same goes for the reports on the Cubs prospects sent to NYY in the Chapman deal. |