On Monday, I aimed to identify the ideal candidate for the five-man infield, inspired by the radical defensive alignment implemented by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller of the Sonoma Stompers in their new book, The Only Rule Is It Has to Work. I’ve since finished reading the book, and discovered Lindbergh and Miller also deployed the five-man infield’s cousin: the four-man outfield. A follow-up only makes sense.

The Stompers play a four-man outfield against the Pacifics’ Jake Taylor in San Rafael. (Source)

The boxes to check for our five-man infield were this: lots of ground balls, lots of ground ball hits, ground balls sprayed all over the infield, fly balls with predictable tendencies (either extreme pull or extreme oppo).

For our four-man outfield, it’s essentially the inverse. We want all of the following to be true of our batter:

1. He hits a bunch of air balls
2. He sprays those air balls all over the outfield
3. He has very predictable ground-ball tendencies

I didn’t use OPS on fly balls as a box to check because OPS on fly balls includes homers, and those can’t be defended against anyway. Remove homers, and the sample gets real noisy, and to me, it didn’t help us in our search. The hitters we’ve identified ended up being good hitters anyway.

So, the hitter that appeared at the very top of our five-man infield spreadsheet was Howie Kendrick, and he checked every box. Made plenty of sense. He was the only hitter to check every box, and I was a bit surprised there weren’t more. Spoiler alert: I’m not totally convinced by any of our four-man outfield candidates. At least not as convinced as I was about Kendrick. But it’s grounds for some interesting discussion nonetheless!

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Huston Street isn’t an expert on analytics. Nor does he claim to be. But he’s by no means a neophyte. The veteran closer is more knowledgeable about advanced stats than the average player. He also has some strong opinions.

A little over a year ago, Street shared his negative view of FIP in one of my Sunday Notes columns. This past spring, I approached him at the Angels’ spring-training facility, in Tempe, to get his thoughts on shift strategy. I ended up getting a lot more than that. A simple question segued into what might be best described as a stream-of-consciousness look at the state of analytics, in classic Street style.

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Street on defensive shifts: “I’m a big believer in match-ups when it comes to shifts. When they’re done really well, they’re based on the individual match-up and not on a general approach to shifting. Half the league throws 96 and the other half throws 93. Then there’s me, who throws 90.

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Ben, Sam and FanGraphs writer August Fagerstrom banter about the allure of Kelly Johnson and the Indians’ plan for winning without Michael Brantley, then talk about big league candidates for untried defensive alignments.

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This past Monday, against Cleveland, Seattle left-hander James Paxton recorded the highest single-game average fastball velocity of his career, at just under 99 mph. While sources differ on the matter, it was at least a mile per hour harder than his previous single-game high, which he’d established in his previous start (and season debut) at San Diego about a week earlier. Jeff Sullivan described that appearance against the Padres as “horrible and promising,” because Paxton had allowed eight runs in just 3.2 innings, but also exhibited a sort of arm speed he hadn’t previously. Monday’s start wasn’t horrible, at all. And even more promising.

There’s a mechanical explanation for why Paxton threw harder on Monday than he’d ever thrown before. But there’s also a change in pitch mix that led to one of the best starts of his life, too. And with those new mechanics and that new pitch mix also came a new mindset. It might be fair to say this is a new James Paxton.

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Tonight, the 2016 MLB draft kicks off, with the first couple of rounds being broadcast on MLB Network (and MLB.com) starting at 7 pm eastern. For the next few days, teams are going to make their best educated guesses as to what players might develop into in four or five years, and down the line, we’ll look back at these few days as a big turning point for some organization. Someone is going to hit a home run in the draft tonight, and end up with a franchise-altering class of talent that could propel them forward for years to come. Teams put a lot of resources and energy into trying to make their picks as effective as possible because the long-term impact of quality drafting can be tremendous.

But the reality is that we’re not going to know, tonight, who is hitting a home run as they’re taking their swings. The draft is an exercise in forecasting, but it’s the most difficult kind of forecasting to do; projecting long-term futures based on incomplete or unreliable information. At the very top of the draft, there’s usually enough information to provide some confidence that the players being picked are the cream of this particular crop, but beyond those first few picks, it becomes very difficult to parse the differences. This isn’t a knock on scouts or scouting; it’s just that this particular job of identifying future production so far out is just really hard.

But, interestingly, even with the tremendous uncertainty that goes along with these picks, one term has stuck in the draft and prospect lexicon that suggests that we know more than we actually do, and you’re going to hear that term a lot tonight. For almost every pick, you’re going to hear about a players “ceiling”, or upside, or some other term for the upper limit of his potential. Big guys with big fastballs are given heigh ceiling grades, and diminutive college hitters with contact skills but lacking in power will be labeled as role players or utility guys, and by and large, you’ll find a lot more high-end players in the first group than the latter one.

But when you look at the current major league leaderboard, it should become pretty clear that the idea of an actual ceiling for any player is a significant overestimation of our ability to project their skills this far out.

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It doesn’t take much with the bat for Billy Hamilton to be a great player. He’s a world class defensive center fielder. Of course he’s a world class base-runner. Just between his defense and base-running, Hamilton can be worth like something up to three wins without adding anything at the plate, and the list of major-league players with that kind of ability is a short one.

Problem is, Hamilton hasn’t just added nothing at the plate, he’s subtracted, and last year he took those subtractions to a nearly unbearable level. Hamilton was one of the very worst hitters in 2015 with a 52 wRC+ that’s either right at or perhaps even below the lowest acceptable level for any hitter, regardless of what other contributions he offers. Hamilton was teetering on the verge of wasting his preternatural athletic abilities due to what he could (or rather couldn’t) do at the plate.

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Nos. #30 – #21
Nos. #20 – #11

Roughly four years ago now, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing project designed to place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams. The results weren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site.

The results of that original exercise have been useful as a complement to the dumb NERD scores published by the author in these pages. Four years later, however, they’ve become much less useful. In the meantime, a number of the broadcast teams cited in that original effort have changed personnel. It’s possible that the tastes of this site’s readers have changed, also.

Recently, the author published an updated version of the television rankings according to the site’s readership. This week: the results of that same exercise, but for radio broadcasts.

Below are the 10th- through 1st-ranked radio-broadcast teams, per the FanGraphs readership.

But first, three notes:

• Teams are ranked in ascending order of Overall rating. Overall ratings are not merely averages of Charisma and Analysis.
• The author has attempted to choose reader comments that are either (a) illustrative of the team’s place in the rankings or (b) conspicuously amusing.
• A complete table of ratings will appear in these pages on Friday, unless they don’t appear then.

10. Oakland Athletics
Main Broadcasters: Ken Korach and Vince Cotroneo
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.8, 3.7, 4.1

Representative Reader Comment
“Ken Korach has a beautiful radio voice and a great meal [sic] for conveying the emotion of a big moment.”

Notes
There isn’t much in the way of specific praise among readers for Korach and Cotroneo — not the sort, at least, which clearly separates them from the teams which appear either a few places above or below this one. Generally, respondents cite Korach’s voice and cadence as the main attraction. Which, this is sufficient to render a broadcast enjoyable, certainly.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Tomlin (61.0 IP, 101 xFIP-) vs. Karns (61.2 IP, 95 xFIP-)
Cleveland last appeared in a proper postseason series in 2007; Seattle, in 2001. Currently, the clubs possess a 69% and 45% probability, respectively, of qualifying for the divisional series. The odds, then, of one or the other of them ending their plaoyff drought would appear strong. Much better than the reader’s odds, certainly, of escaping the darkness that devours us all.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Seattle.

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