How the Reds’ Season Has Actually Gone According to Plan

Out of all the sports, it’s got to be toughest for a baseball fan to endure a rebuild season. During a baseball rebuild season, the suck lasts 162 games. Every fan of every team begins the year with enthusiasm — it’s meaningful baseball again, all the teams are tied, and there’s both fresh faces and the ones you’ve grown to love — but for fans of those rebuilding clubs, the enthusiasm wears off the quickest, and the suck grows exponentially as the season goes on.

The enthusiasm has well worn off for fans of the 2016 Cincinnati Reds. They’re 22-36, better only than the Braves and Twins. Their playoff odds officially flatlined back on April 30. Their best player, Joey Votto, hasn’t even brought much in the way of excitement, and perhaps worse than all that, they’ve played 58 games, and 57 times they’ve had to endure a historically bad bullpen.

Not much to cheer for in Cincinnati this year! Cincinnati fans: I’m sorry I just made you relive all that. But I’ve got good news! In this one way, your team’s season can actually be a success! I’m serious! See, in years like these, with the 162 games of suck and whathaveyou, you’ve got to maintain perspective. This season was never about winning games. It was never about being better than the Braves and the Twins, or having playoff odds, or not having a bullpen that makes your eyes bleed. It was about learning, and it was about acquiring future assets.

The Reds have learned. Oh, the Reds have learned. The Reds have learned that nobody in their current bullpen will be in their next good bullpen. You’d prefer to learn positive things about your team, but there’s value in knowing ahead of time which fat to trim. For a positive thing, the Reds have learned that Adam Duvall might really be a player. There’s value in knowing which pieces might be here to stay.

But beyond just some learning, this Reds’ season has gone to plan in that their two most encouraging comeback stories just so happen to be their two most sensible trade chips.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/8/16

12:03
Dave Cameron: Welcome to pre-draft Wednesday.

12:03
Dave Cameron: We’ll chat for an hour or so, and then I’ll have to go get ready to prep a piece that ties in to a pretty fun MLB announcement today.

12:03
Dave Cameron: So this should be a fun afternoon.

12:03
Tom: What was the point of the Nats calling up Trea Turner if they were going to hardly play him?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Ryan Zimmerman went on paternity leave, so they needed an infielder for the weekend.

12:04
Q-Ball: Has Cub pitching had unusual batted ball luck? BABIP against is .251. While Cubs have a couple noted contact managers (Arrieta, Hendricks) and play good defense, that seems high. Thoughts?

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Projecting the Cubs’ Albert Almora

With Jorge Soler headed to the disabled list with a hamstring injury, the Cubs have summoned outfielder Albert Almora from Triple-A. It seems Almora, who bats right-handed, will play primarily against left-handed pitching for the time being. The 22-year-old gives Joe Maddon yet another talented hitter to work into his endlessly deep and potent lineup. Almora was hitting .318/.335/.444 in Triple-A with 10 steals and a 13% strikeout rate.

The Cubs selected Almora sixth overall out of high school back in 2012, and he immediately began generating prospect hype. Baseball America deemed him the 33rd- and 36th-best prospect in baseball in 2013 and 2014 respectively. However, he didn’t crack Baseball America’s list in either of the two most recent years, likely because he’s moved slowly through the Cubs system while putting up unspectacular surface stats. He hit .270/.291/.392 between High-A and Double-A in 2014 and then slashed .272/.327/.400 in Double-A last season. Those aren’t exactly knock-your-socks-off numbers.

Yet, despite his flaws, KATOH’s maintained hope in Almora. Over the winter, my system pegged him for 5.2 WAR over the next six years, making him the 46th-best prospect in the game. Adding his 2016 numbers into the mix, Almora’s projection jumps up to 7.4 WAR.

Almora’s projection is primarily driven by two factors: age and strikeout rate. Although it feels like we’ve been hearing about him forever, Almora’s still just 22; and he just turned 22 a few weeks ago. Furthermore, he’s kept his strikeout rate between 10% and 13% the past few years, which suggests he isn’t getting fooled often.

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MLB Should Throw the Book at Yordano Ventura

Last night, Yordano Ventura once again lived down to his reputation. The video at MLB.com shows not just the 99 mph fastball that drilled Manny Machado in the back in the 5th inning, but the 2nd inning pitches that led Ventura to decide to throw at the Orioles best player. If you haven’t seen the context that precipitated the brawl, this is worth watching.

As referenced by the announcers, this is nothing new for Ventura. Last April, he was unhappy with Mike Trout, and caused the benches to clear by mouthing off after pitching poorly. He was then ejected from his next start for hitting Brett Lawrie with a fastball, and in the start after that, he got the benches to clear by yelling at Adam Eaton after a groundball back to the mound.

As Jeff Passan — who lives in Kansas City and knows more about the Royals than most national writers — noted this morning, Ventura’s act has worn thin, not just with everyone else in baseball, but his own organization as well.

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Scouting Debutants Jameson Taillon and Albert Almora

It’s been a long, strange trip to the major leagues for Jameson Taillon. Sandwiched at second overall between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the 2010 draft, Taillon missed all of 2014 and 2015 while recovering from Tommy John and inguinal hernia surgeries, respectively. His stuff flashed last fall during instructional league and there was hope coming into the season that he would be able to pick up somewhere close to where he left off in 2013 when he had a brief and wild but effective stint in Triple-A.

This year, Taillon has exceeded all hopes and expectations and laid waste to the International League. In ten starts (61.2 innings), Taillon has struck out 61 and walked just six, while generating a ton of ground balls. Per MLBfarm.com, 83 of the 168 balls put in play versus Taillon this year have been on the ground. He debuts for the Pirates tonight against Noah Syndergaard and the Mets.

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NERD Game Scores: Jameson Taillon Belated Debut Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Syndergaard (70.2 IP, 50 xFIP-) vs. Taillon (MLB Debut)
The author is quoting his own grotesque self when he declares that Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard has produced the lowest adjusted xFIP among qualified pitchers since the entire time during which that metric has been available. The author is quoting other people when he notes that Pirates right-hander Jameson Taillon, who’s scheduled to record his major-league debut tonight, is one of baseball’s top prospects. Or, is quoting other people from 2013, at least — i.e., the most recent season before this one during which Taillon accumulated even one professional inning. Taillon, now 24 years old, has been excellent this season after a two-year hiatus, producing the top strikeout- and walk-rate differential among all Triple-A qualifiers while also sitting at 94-96 mph.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: New York NL.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron on Buying, Selling in Bulk

Episode 658
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he discusses what cognitive biases might be at play in the assessment of aging players, generally, and Jacoby Ellsbury, specifically; evaluates the organizational health of the Padres relative to recent Astros and Phillies clubs; and, as part of the Practical Analytics series, examines the proper variables to consider before purchasing months’ and months’ worth of deodorant.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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The Team With the Friendliest Strike Zone

We all know that the strike zone isn’t always called correctly, and we all know that the mistakes aren’t just randomly distributed. Have you ever stopped to think about how weird that is? The zone is at the core of the entire game, and for as long as baseball has existed, some teams have gotten more generous zones than others. It’s like if some football teams only needed to gain nine and a half yards for a first down. It’s like if a hockey team, or a basketball team, or a soccer team got to shoot at a slightly larger goal. These adjustments wouldn’t make all the difference, but they would make a difference, and they’d be weird, too. Inequality is weird.

On the other hand, it’s not like the other sports don’t have their own areas of subjectivity. Football penalties. Hockey penalties. Basketball fouls. Soccer fouls. Fouls, basically. Those might not be randomly distributed, either. I don’t know enough about that research, but thankfully, I’m about at the end of this introduction, so we can get back to the baseball stuff.

Known fact: not all strike zones are called the same.

Question: so how have teams benefited or been hurt by the strike zones this year?

Analysis: to follow.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/7/16

9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01
TheDudeofNY: Peanuts are not nuts.

9:02
Paul Swydan: Picky, picky, picky.

9:02
Dave in London: Thoughts on Leonys Martin this year and going forward? Is he due for a significant regression, or is he as good as he’s looked this year?

9:03
Paul Swydan: Well, he’s on the shelf right now, but I think he has a good chance to be this good, assuming he comes back healthy.

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Jose Altuve Scared Them Away

It was a strange start to the season, you’ll remember. Even though the Astros, as a whole, were completely disappointing, Jose Altuve came out absolutely on fire. He put up numbers you’d expect from some elite-level slugger, and on May 5, he bashed his ninth home run. That put him on pace for something like 50, and though Altuve was never going to get all the way to 50, he was impossible not to notice. He already had the remarkable bat-to-ball skills. To that, he was adding selective strength. Call it a superstar turn.

It’s overly simplistic, but when you look at Altuve, you don’t see a home-run hitter. I shouldn’t need to explain why. The extent of the power was hard to believe, and now you could say things have calmed down: Last night, Altuve hit his first dinger in a month. I want to talk about that dinger, but more importantly, I want to talk about the process that led to that dinger. It’s not that Altuve’s start was a mirage. It’s that he was getting opportunities they’re not giving him anymore.

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