Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/8/16

Dave Cameron: Welcome to pre-draft Wednesday.

Dave Cameron: We’ll chat for an hour or so, and then I’ll have to go get ready to prep a piece that ties in to a pretty fun MLB announcement today.

Dave Cameron: So this should be a fun afternoon.

Tom: What was the point of the Nats calling up Trea Turner if they were going to hardly play him?

Dave Cameron: Ryan Zimmerman went on paternity leave, so they needed an infielder for the weekend.

Q-Ball: Has Cub pitching had unusual batted ball luck? BABIP against is .251. While Cubs have a couple noted contact managers (Arrieta, Hendricks) and play good defense, that seems high. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s a combination of talent and fortune. They won’t stay at .251, but they won’t regress to league average either.

Oliver: As a Pirates fan, I understand theres a very real possibility Taillon can be sent down after his start. But 1-10 how mad,sad should I be if this happens?

Dave Cameron: 1. It’s just not that big of a deal.

Jaack: True or False: Madison Bumgarner ought to be in the home run derby

Dave Cameron: True. It’d be a blast.

Big Joe Montferrant: I don’t agree with everything you write, but I 100% agree that its time to do something about Ventura. I also would LOVE to see the Royals fed up and trade him to the NL where he has to stand in the box every game!

Dave Cameron: Or the Royals could just send him back to the minors again. He’s earned it.

Eric: Why has Scherzer become so homer prone? Do you think this will correct itself over more time?

Dave Cameron: He throws a ton of strikes. Could argue that he might throw too many.

Bork: Any predictions for the Machado/Ventura suspensions? Also, if the Royals are making Ventura available what kind of return could he bring? Low stock with a bad attitude, but a very team friendly contract.

Dave Cameron: I bet they’ll do standard suspensions, so 5-6 for Machado and 6-8 for Ventura.

Ronnie: One year ago today Toronto was 29-30. Which currently under .500 team has the best chance to make the postseason?

Dave Cameron: Houston.

Erik: Will the Phillies go best player available, or pick the cheapest of the top tier candidates?

Dave Cameron: I don’t have any inside info, but I’d probably go with one of the hitters and try to save money for later picks.

CameronDaClub: Anything to the idea that Thor’s high BABIP is related to his velocity? Seems like his heater is prone to just rocketing off the bat of those who manage contact.

Dave Cameron: He has the third lowest average exit velocity against in MLB, so nope.

Big Joe Montferrant: Could Delin Betances fetch a better package than Ken Giles?

Dave Cameron: Yes, definitely.

James Shannon: Is Yadier Molina a HOFer?

Dave Cameron: I would vote for him, yes.

Alby: The Phillies signed Jeremy Hellickson hoping to flip him at the trade deadline, but despite improved performance I seldom see his name in trade rumors so far. Any idea why not?

Dave Cameron: The Phillies are busier figuring out who to draft than worrying about trades right now. They’ll shift their focus next week.

JD: Michael Feliz has looked unhittable as a reliever so far this year. What are his prospects as a starter? He’s been trying to use his changeup more but he’s been highly efficient out of the pen. Should he start over Fiers right now?

Dave Cameron: August wrote about him last week, but he still looks like a two pitch guy right now. Probably best to leave him in the pen for this year.

adam: with the weak OF market would it be beneficial for the phillies to shop odubel?

Dave Cameron: It’d be worth listening to offers if people wanted to bid, but it takes a while for teams to warm up to guys who were freely available not that long ago. So I don’t know that they’d get an offer that would make them pull the trigger.

Alex: What should the Dodgers do at the trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the health of the pitchers. If Wood is out for a while, they’ll need another SP. If he comes back healthy, and de Leon or or Urias can solidify the bullpen, then maybe they won’t need to make a big splash.

Marc: Has Aaron Sanchez done enough this year to remove the future reliever label for you?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, at this point, it looks like I was just wrong on Sanchez. The command has come around even over longer outings.

Anonymous Coward: What is Yordano Ventura’s trade value, given his troubles this season and his terrible attitude?

Dave Cameron: Basically zero.

Duke : The Dodgers are a mess. I strongly suspect that without any help at 3b, 2b, sp, and rp, they won’t make the playoffs. Do you think they make any meaningful trades by the deadline?

Dave Cameron: You want to replace Utley, a 2B with a 112 wRC+? If Turner doesn’t find his power stroke again, maybe they can make a move for an infielder, but the narrative around the Dodgers remains insanely negative for a team that is playing just fine without a ton of their best players.

AJ Preller: Wil Myers “cant be a star” at first base? 3rd in positional fWAR, sitting .2 fWAR behind Goldy and .1 ahead of Rizzo now, and is the only one of those 3 mentioned providing positive value on both sides of the ball. You need an editor.

Dave Cameron: Please name all the star first baseman with a 115-120 wRC+. I’ll wait.

Daniel: Biggest thing (injury or transaction) in the past decade that altered the fate of a team/season/franchise?

Dave Cameron: That’s a fun question. It’s easy to say something like drafting Mike Trout, but then again, the Angels haven’t exactly taken advantage of having him. So maybe the Rays passing on Buster Posey to take Tim Beckham.

Dobson: Greater chance to end up at 2B, Swanson or Albies? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Albies.

Erik: How does J.P. Crawford compare to the shortstops who have come up over the past year?

Dave Cameron: He’s in the Lindor mold more than the Correa/Seager group, but he could be really terrific.

Q-Ball: If you had walk-up music, what would it be?

Dave Cameron: A Mitch Hedberg joke.

Dustin: Should I feel bad, as a Braves fan, that I haven’t sat down and watched this team play a full game in over a month?

Dave Cameron: Of course not.

Andrew: What do you make of the Mets refusal to promote Dilson Herrera and shift Walker to 3rd? Is this type of shuffling players around the diamond just uncommon in baseball or is it a Mets org thing?

Dave Cameron: Teams generally don’t like bouncing starters around.

potsdam: What move makes most sense for the White Sox now?

Dave Cameron: If Jay Bruce isn’t the White Sox new DH within a month or so, I’ll be surprised.

Bork: Any hints on the MLB announcement?

Dave Cameron: It’s really good news for fans of the game, I think.

Ed: Will there be a chat during tomorrow’s draft or is there simply not enough interest?

Dave Cameron: Eric is going to chat on Friday morning before day two begins. He’s going to be covering the draft for ESPN for this year, due to the timing of when we hired him. Next year, he’ll do full draft coverage here at FG.

Dan: Do you see the Royals staying in the race? Their rotation is worse than ever, their pen doesn’t look as good as it used to be, and they have like 2 guys that can hit.

Dave Cameron: If they make the playoffs this year, with this roster, then Dayton Moore is legitimately a wizard.

Joe: Kelly Johnson to the Mets again. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I’m amazed how many people care about this.

A. Reitz: Thoughts on JP Crawfords struggles in AAA, heck AA for that matter? Sure, he’s got a nice BB rate, low K rate but that doesn’t mean he can hit either. Curious why he’s considered a Top 5 prospect?

Dave Cameron: He put up a 133 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old. His 75 PAs in AAA include a .204 BABIP. He’s considered an elite prospect because he’s an athletic shortstop with great bat control, a good eye, and enough power to make the package work.

Pete: What do you make of Stanton’s struggles? Should Miami start to worry about that mega-contract?

Dave Cameron: The big drop in contact rate is a concern, no question. This is why the “he’s definitely going to opt-out, it’s not really a 13 year deal” philosophy was not wise.

Daniel: Would you vote for Chase Utley?

Dave Cameron: No, just didn’t play long enough.

Tank: Couldn’t the Yankees reboot the farm system without devastating next year’s team by just trading all 3 of Chapman, Miller and Betances? Maybe that would flood the market too much, but each of those guys should get you a Giles type haul.

Dave Cameron: You’re not getting a huge haul for half a season of Chapman.

Dave Cameron: Miller and Betances have a lot of value, but if you trade both, and don’t re-sign Chapman, now your bullpen is the worst in baseball.

Jean Claude VD: have you ever described something as “lit,” and can you rule it out going forward?

Dave Cameron: If I ever say something is lit, I will light myself on fire.

Dancing Dan Mcgrewww: is beltran a HOF?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Rich: What’s your take on Aledmys Diaz? He obviously won’t sustain his current pace, but, do you think the Cards can expect a guy with league average defense and above average (for a SS) bat going forward, i.e. have they found a solid SS for the next 5+ years?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know about average defense, but the contact/power combination looks pretty real at this point. He might be an Alutve-like contributor, just without the speed.

Jelly: Padres turned down Michael Fulmer for Justin Upton last deadline. That’s looking like a pretty poor decision now. He’s gotta be worth more than the comp pick they got, no?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely.

CubsNerd: Think Aaron Nola stays as a top 10 MLB pitcher for the next few years i.e. until phils are good again?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m in on Nola. He’s legit.

Joe: I’m surprised you’d put Yadier Molina in the HOF. 31.3 career WAR, only one 6 win season (and only three better than 3.3 WAR). Do his pitch framing skills and intangibles really make a big enough difference to overcome his good-but-not-great traditional stats?

Dave Cameron: Catchers need to be judged on their own scale, given the demands of the position and the different career lengths than other positions. And yes, we’re wildly underrating Molina by not measuring the parts of the game he excels at.

Cory: AL central is extremely tight between the top four teams at the moment. Who do you like most going forward?

Dave Cameron: I liked Detroit pre-season, but the back-end of that rotation looks thin again, and the bullpen is still terrible. So probably Cleveland now.

Alex: Did you see the Dodgers piece saying they need to stop trying to outsmart everyone (“overthinking it”) and just use their vast resources to outspend the competition? I believe it was at the Ringer. How bad of a take is that?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t read it, but yeah, it’s stupid.

Timmay: Ventura’s contract seems cheap enough to just put him in the bullpen and turn him into an “ace” reliever, no? He seems like exactly the type of guy that would work for.

Dave Cameron: Agreed, but an immature unlikable bullpen conversion isn’t exactly a great trade chip.

Tristan: What do the Dbacks do with Tomas? Send him down, or try and unload him for anything?

Dave Cameron: No one’s taking that contract.

Jack Conness: Back to Daniel’s question – I would say the signing of Pujols and Hamilton for the Angels. Lost draft picks, hundreds of millions of dollars wasted, worst farm team in the league.

Dave Cameron: Solid contender as well.

Daniel: What is the main difference between bWAR and fWAR? If it can be quickly summarized. (for position players!)

Dave Cameron: Different park effects, different defensive metrics.

Beau: Out of all the stadiums you’ve been to, what’s your favorite and why?

Dave Cameron: San Francisco’s park was great. Pretty tough to beat the location and the size, since you felt like you were right on top of the players.

Christian: When do the Brewers start pulling the trigger on some trades? Lucroy’s value can’t possibly get any higher.

Dave Cameron: Teams don’t make big deals before the draft, usually. Stuff will pick up soon.

Jack: Is this the best crop of young shortstops since the early 90s when Jeter, Nomar, ARod, etc. broke into the league?

Dave Cameron: This crop is better.

CameronDaClub: Was Felix, at any point in time, the very best pitcher in the American League?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, a few years back, when Verlander declined a bit.

Pessimistic Sox Fan: Do you think the White Sox can afford Bruce? With the shortage of OF around the league and the Sox lack of prospects to trade I have assumed they would be outbid.

Dave Cameron: Bruce isn’t really an OF anymore, so only AL teams will be interested. He’s a salary dump, which is perfect for Chicago .

Ray : “It lit” and “it me” are two of the most annoying things on Twitter.

Dave Cameron: No, that’s still “nice”

kevinthecomic: mlb.com just announced that RBI16 is now available in stores. was that it?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Much better.

JR: If you had the #1 pick in the draft who would you grab?

Dave Cameron: Probably Corey Ray, but I’m not any kind of draft expert.

R: Your pick for best team GM/President over the past 10-15 years? If you could pick, who would you want to blow up a team like the Braves/Padres and turn it around fastest or best through the draft/trades?

Dave Cameron: Don’t know how you argue with Theo, right?

Snarfle: Which Mitch Hedberg joke?

Dave Cameron: I’ve always had a fondness for the “If you have a pulse and legs, you are never blocking a fire exit” joke, but that would be a weird one to use as walkup music.

hscer: Wasn’t “vast resources to outspend” the entire Yankees 2002-2010 strategy? Or was Cashman enough of a check on Steinbrenner? At least they got one championship in that time period.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the people advocating for “just spend money” approach are ignoring the fact that the teams that have done just that have failed miserably.

Al: Do you see the Jays’ window of opportunity lasting until Donaldson can become a free agent after 2018? Or perhaps a bit shorter?

Dave Cameron: Not sure how good Toronto will be next year, honestly. If Bautista and Encarnacion leave, and Martin/Tulo don’t bounce back, it might be time for a step back year.

Martin: Ignoring salaries, who has the greatest trade value between Betances, Chapman and Miller?

Dave Cameron: Trade value does not ignore salaries.

klof: Why not let Kershaw/Arrieta/Thor/Fernandez throw their bullpen day as a reliever 3 days after their start? Why waste it off the field?

Dave Cameron: Guys are not throwing at the same intensity as they do when trying to get hitters out.

Rupert E’ert: What’s your favorite punctuation mark

Dave Cameron: I’m a big fan of the semi-colon; it is very underrated.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to go load up a post in the queue that I think you guys will like. BAM should have their announcement out in a few hours, and the post will go up at 3 pm eastern. Stay tuned for a fun afternoon.