Strikeouts are up! That sentence is obvious enough that the exclamation mark is probably unnecessary. After all, strikeout rates have been trending upward for a long time. Just take a look at the league’s K% over the last two decades:

For a variety of reasons, things really started to trend upward around 2005, but we settled around 20.4% in each of the last two years. Strikeouts appeared to be plateauing. Or, at the very least, their growth rate was starting to taper off. The red line, however, shows the increase from 2015 to 2016. The MLB strikeout rate entering play on Wednesday is 22.0%, a full 1.6 percentage points higher than the previous zenith and a year-over-year jump similar to the 2011 to 2012 spike.

In other words, the preceding exclamation point might be warranted. Strikeouts are indeed up(!) in 2016.

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We all know by now about velocity being up league-wide and strikeouts having been on the rise for more than a decade. If you didn’t: welcome to baseball in 2016! Everyone throws 95 and there’s darn near 20 strikeouts a game now.

The inverse of that, naturally, is that walks are harder to come by. Pitchers are working outside the zone more than ever and hitters aren’t adjusting, and they’re having a harder time catching up to the heat even when it’s inside the zone. Hitters are finding themselves behind in the count far more often than we’ve seen in the past, and in the last two years, we’ve seen the two lowest league-wide walk rates in almost 50 years.

Which brings us to this year’s Chicago Cubs, who aren’t playing by those rules. They’re off to a ridiculous start, with a 6-1 record and a league-best +29 run differential. Their pitchers have struck out 56 batters and walked just nine. Thus far, they’ve looked every bit the powerhouse folks envisioned in the offseason. And there’s another part of this Cubs team that’s staying true to preseason expectations, an important part of the team’s DNA that hasn’t been given much publicity. It’s not a sexy characteristic, which would explain the lack of fanfare surrounding this trait, but it’s an important one. The 2016 Cubs have a very real chance to be the most disciplined lineup we’ve ever seen.

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When I first talked to Delino DeShields, he was 20 years old and finishing up a season in which he hit .287/.389/.428, with 12 home runs, between Low-A and High-A. More notable is the fact that he stole 101 bases. Hardly anyone noticed. That same year, Billy Hamilton swiped an unprecedented 155.

The introduction to the 2012 interview included the following suggestion: “DeShields may ultimately prove to be the better player.”

The jury is still out. Three-plus years later, the Reds’ jackrabbit has the edge in the running game. However, the more well-rounded Ranger has been better with the bat. In last year’s rookie campaign with Texas, DeShields slashed .261/.344/.374 with a team-best 10 triples. His 25 thefts weren’t anything to write home about, but the son of former big-league speedster Delino DeShields, Sr. isn’t too concerned with stolen base numbers. His primary focus is the Runs Scored column.

———

DeShields on his overall development: “I’ve come a long way [since 2012]. A lot of that is just maturity and being around the game more and more. Here, I’m around veteran guys who are taking me under their wings and showing me the ropes. These are guys who have been there, done that, and they have your back. They’re always pushing me.

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In the aftermath of a series of high-profile fan injuries at major-league ballparks this past summer, a federal class-action lawsuit — Payne v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball — was filed against all 30 Major League Baseball teams this past July. The suit sought to force all MLB franchises to implement additional safety mechanisms to help protect fans from foul balls and broken bats, asking the court in particular to order the league to ensure that foul-pole-to-foul-pole netting was installed in all 30 of its stadiums to protect fans all the way down the foul lines from the dangers of flying objects.

As I noted at the time the lawsuit was filed, the plaintiffs’ odds of winning the case appeared to be slim, as MLB had a number of potentially strong defenses to assert on its teams’ behalf. It was not particularly surprising, then, that MLB formally asked the court to dismiss the Payne lawsuit last November, relying on several of these arguments in the process.

MLB’s legal efforts were rewarded this past Friday when Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers — the California federal judge presiding over the case — ruled that 25 of the 30 MLB franchises should be dismissed from the Payne lawsuit. Moreover, because Judge Rogers’ opinion also suggested that the five remaining MLB teams may eventually be dismissed from the case as well, it appears MLB’s partial victory in the lawsuit could soon become a complete triumph in the not-too-distant future.

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For a good long while Monday night, Reds fans had reason to be encouraged. The team was already off to a strong start, and then it took a lead on the road against the Cubs, with Brandon Finnegan working on a no-hitter. It promptly came undone. Not only did Finnegan not complete the no-hitter — the Reds didn’t complete a shutout, and actually the Reds didn’t even win the damn game, with the Cubs rallying against the vulnerable bullpen. Reality blows, and it probably wasn’t the last time the Cubs will put the Reds away in some kind of dispiriting fashion. In the span of a few innings, Reds fans were reminded that, yeah, the playoffs probably aren’t going to happen.

I mean, I don’t know. The Reds are still 5-2. Bully for them. They don’t seem like a good team, but teams like this have surprised before. I don’t want to step on any playoff dreams, so I’ll go with this: Perhaps my main positive takeaway has been the work of Finnegan as a starter. I don’t think he’ll be pitching this team into October, but he’s pitched like someone who could do that down the road. That young Reds rotation is starting to take some shape.

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With just over a week of the regular season in the books, it’s high time we concluded our division-by-division, ball-in-play-based analysis of 2015 starting-pitcher performance. Last time, we considered the AL Central. Today, it’s the AL West.

First, some ground rules. To come up with an overall player population roughly equal to one starting rotation per team, the minimum number of batted balls allowed with Statcast readings was set at 243. Pitchers are listed with their 2015 division mates; those who were traded during the season will appear in the division in which they compiled the most innings. Pitchers are listed in “tru” ERA order. For those who have not read my previous articles on the topic, “tru” ERA is the ERA pitchers “should” have compiled based on the actual BIP frequency and authority they allowed relative to the league. Here we go:

Starting Pitcher BIP Profiles – AL West

	AVG MPH	FB/LD MPH	GB MPH	POP %	FLY %	LD %	GB %	ADJ C	K %	BB %	ERA –	FIP –	TRU –
Keuchel	85.78	90.55	83.52	2.4%	17.2%	18.7%	61.7%	83	23.7%	5.6%	62	73	69
McHugh	86.16	89.25	85.12	3.9%	30.7%	20.0%	45.4%	85	19.9%	6.2%	97	89	78
F.Hernandez	88.81	92.10	87.70	2.0%	24.9%	16.9%	56.2%	92	23.1%	7.0%	88	95	79
Gray	88.85	91.89	87.55	2.5%	28.2%	16.6%	52.7%	86	20.3%	7.1%	68	86	80
Iwakuma	88.71	91.87	87.20	2.1%	29.0%	18.5%	50.4%	100	21.5%	4.1%	88	93	82
McCullers	89.16	92.62	85.87	3.0%	28.8%	21.8%	46.5%	99	24.8%	8.3%	80	81	83
Richards	87.48	92.35	85.20	2.9%	25.1%	17.1%	54.9%	88	20.4%	8.8%	91	96	85
Weaver	86.82	91.59	82.47	6.0%	40.5%	19.0%	34.4%	86	13.5%	4.9%	116	120	89
Shoemaker	87.37	91.81	83.55	3.9%	38.5%	18.5%	39.2%	101	20.4%	6.2%	111	114	90
Happ	89.72	91.82	89.71	4.1%	30.0%	24.3%	41.6%	104	21.1%	6.3%	90	85	91
Hahn	86.56	90.70	84.23	1.3%	21.6%	24.5%	52.6%	92	15.8%	6.2%	84	88	92
Kazmir	87.67	92.37	84.43	2.6%	34.7%	19.8%	42.9%	101	20.3%	7.7%	77	99	93
Santiago	89.38	92.96	85.73	5.9%	47.7%	16.5%	29.9%	99	20.9%	9.2%	90	119	94
Elias	88.40	91.68	86.41	3.3%	33.1%	19.4%	44.2%	98	19.8%	9.0%	103	113	94
T.Walker	90.60	92.96	88.48	3.9%	35.1%	22.4%	38.6%	115	22.2%	5.7%	114	101	95
CJ.Wilson	90.07	92.52	88.70	3.4%	31.6%	21.9%	43.1%	103	19.9%	8.3%	97	100	96
J.Chavez	89.21	93.11	85.85	5.4%	28.6%	22.9%	43.1%	110	20.2%	7.1%	104	96	99
Gallardo	88.53	89.92	87.69	2.4%	26.3%	22.0%	49.3%	96	15.3%	8.6%	85	100	102
C.Lewis	89.47	92.22	86.47	3.5%	40.8%	22.0%	33.7%	111	16.5%	4.9%	116	104	104
Feldman	88.34	90.80	87.63	1.7%	25.8%	23.6%	48.9%	101	13.5%	6.0%	97	108	105
Heaney	89.95	93.39	86.67	4.0%	35.5%	22.2%	38.3%	117	17.8%	6.4%	87	93	109
Graveman	90.07	93.10	87.59	1.3%	27.3%	21.4%	50.0%	115	15.3%	7.6%	101	115	116
N.Martinez	89.04	91.44	87.38	3.6%	30.1%	24.0%	42.3%	109	13.8%	8.2%	99	124	116
AVERAGE	88.53	91.87	86.31	3.3%	30.9%	20.6%	45.2%	100	19.1%	6.9%	93	100	93

Most of the column headers are self-explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and traditional ERA-, FIP-, and “tru” ERA-. Each pitchers’ Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Again, for those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Unadjusted Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from opposing hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each pitchers’ individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.

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Yesterday I published my annual reminder that it’s never too early to look at the standings. That is, even though we’re through just one week, the Orioles have done themselves a hell of a favor by starting out 6-0. Now, on the flip side, it can be too early to look at the leaderboards. Like, Tyler White is first in baseball in WAR. If you want to find some real signal, you just have to be patient. But sometimes I just can’t help myself. I mean, I practically live on this website, so of course I’m going to go exploring. And, related to that — it’s been just six games, but the Rays are already up to something.

It’s not something entirely new. I wrote about this when the Rays traded for Corey Dickerson, but during last season, the Rays switched to taking a more aggressive offensive approach. So if you were curious, no, that hasn’t been abandoned. The Rays hitters remain aggressive today, and based on the early indications, they’re going to be more aggressive than anyone else.

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Previous editions: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati  / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles (AL) / Los Angeles (NL) / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York (AL) / New York (NL)  / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / St. Louis.

Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Tampa Bay Rays. In this companion piece, I look at that same Tampa farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Rays have the eighth-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.

There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

*****

1. Jake Bauers, 1B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 8.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Bauers spent his age-19 season squaring off against High-A and Double-A pitchers, and more than held his own. Bauers didn’t show any glaring weaknesses offensively, and rode a 14% strikeout rate to a .273/.347/.422 batting line. Bauers doesn’t have the power of a traditional first baseman, but he excels in every other offensive area. Considering how young he’s been for his level, that’s quite an accomplishment.

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