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The not-so-breaking news is this: at various points in this year’s offseason, the Twins came to terms with Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, the Orioles did the same with Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim, and the Dodgers signed Japanese starting pitcher Kenta Maeda.

The actual breaking news, depending on your definition of the word breaking: those guys now have FanGraphs player pages! Technically, their player pages appeared on the site late last week, but now they’re equipped with their own unique 2016 Steamer projections and have been factored into our depth charts.

Projections for any player should be discussed, questioned, and mentally tweaked when seen fit, because they’re not meant to be taken as gospel, they’re meant to be used as a guide. For all players, especially those with unique circumstances, the projections come with error bars. “Never having played in America” certainly counts as a unique circumstance, and so of course the projections for Park, Kim, and Maeda fit the bill.

Steamer does what it can. It starts with international league stats, and adjusts them based on estimated quality of league, just like it does with minor leaguers transitioning to the bigs. There’s also an adjustment for the frequency of events between leagues — for instance, there are slightly more strikeouts in the MLB than the NPB, and way more strikeouts than in Cuba. Jared Cross, creator of Steamer, wrote about some of these adjustments for ESPN when Jose Abreu came to America.

Below, I’ll reveal the projections for each of the three players, spend a bit of time discussing what we know about each guy and their expected role in the major leagues for 2016, and I’ll leave a poll to crowdsource the opinions of the projections. I don’t see the need for a follow-up post on the results, it’ll just be nice to know the public opinion for these guys, seeing as they come with more uncertainty that most any other player, and it might be something that gives us a chuckle when we look back at it.

Let’s begin!

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Only three batters last year recorded both 300-plus plate appearances and also a .300 isolated-power figure: Chris Davis (670 PA, .300 ISO), Bryce Harper (654 PA, .319 ISO), and Giancarlo Stanton (318 PA, .341 ISO). That’s merely one of the many possible ways to state an obvious thing — namely, that the Marlins’ right fielder is among the most impressive power hitters in the league. What else that set of criteria reveals, however, is that Stanton was limited by injury. Because if the plate-appearance threshold were raised to 319, his name would disappear.

In his five years as a regular, Stanton has averaged 512 plate appearances per season. Not the worst case scenario, certainly, but not ideal — and the results have been fantastic, regardless. If his projection (499 PA, 4.9 zWAR) seems a bit light relative to his prodigious talents, however, it’s the result of a somewhat modest plate-appearance forecast.

Examining Miami’s field players as a whole, one finds a group well equipped to produce wins at an average rate in 2016, with Dee Gordon (606 PA, 2.6 zWAR), Martin Prado (578 PA, 2.6 zWAR), and Christian Yelich (596 PA, 3.2 zWAR) all complementing Stanton. First base, meanwhile, appears to be the most immediate area of concern: even in a platoon, Justin Bour (501 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and Chris Johnson (443 PA, 0.2 zWAR) might exhibit some difficulty in separating themselves from replacement level.

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Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Indians, Orioles, Reds, Red Sox, White Sox.

The Rockies’ system is a long list of potential major league contributors, topped by nearly a full team of 50+ overall grade prospects. They haven’t had the best luck developing young pitchers, but Jeff Hoffman and Jon Gray give them a chance at building a cost-effective pitching staff in the near future as they try to retool, while a stable of younger hurlers may arrive in three to four years. I don’t see any huge surprises on this list for people, though having Brendan Rodgers number one may be debatable. Gray gets bumped down a bit for command concerns, though obviously his upside is apparent. Catcher Dom Nunez and starting pitcher Peter Lambert may be higher on this list than you will hear elsewhere, and Carlos Estevez‘ relief potential bumps him into the 50-grade territory for me.

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Mitch Harris is known for his back story. The 30-year-old righthander was drafted by the Cardinals in 2008, but he didn’t throw his first professional pitch until 2013. The interim years were spent protecting Uncle Sam. Harris did two tours of duty in the Persian Gulf and another off the coast of Colombia, where his ship helped curtail drug-smuggling operations.

Last year, Harris became the second graduate of the Naval Academy to reach the big leagues. (Nemo Gaines pitched in four games for the Washington Senators in 1921.) Harris came out of the St. Louis bullpen 26 times and put up a 3.67 ERA over 27 innings.

A 6-foot-4, 235 lb. power pitcher, Harris relies heavily on a mid-90s fastball and a cutter. He began throwing the latter during his sophomore season with the Midshipmen, on the recommendation of his pitching coach.

Keeping your deliveries sharp isn’t easy when you’re on a boat halfway across the world, although Harris did occasionally throw to a cook on the flight deck. Following the MLB hitters he hoped to one day face was also a challenge. As Harris put it, “It’s not as though I could turn on the TV and get any channel; it was more of whether the ship was in the right direction to get a satellite.”

Now that he’s in the big leagues, the righty has access to all the video he could possibly want. Initially, he used ignorance to his advantage. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Earlier this week, I read an article on Philly.com about Jason Groome, a left-handed high school pitching prospect thought to be in the mix for the first overall pick in this upcoming draft. In addition to being the local-ish prospect, Groome got a stamp of approval from Cole Hamels, who saw him do a workout for the Phillies last year before Hamels was traded to Texas.

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Ben talks to former Baseball Prospectus editor-in-chief Steven Goldman and Banished to the Pen’s Darius Austin about how Warren Spahn avoided the 1950s Dodgers and what we can learn from the way managers used their pitchers when rotations weren’t rigid.

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Previous editions: Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati .

Earlier this week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Cincinnati Reds. In this companion piece, I look at that same Cincinnati farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors. Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies aren’t projected to be a very good team this season. If you’re familiar with our internet pages, that certainly doesn’t come as breaking news. The Phillies rebuild has been a long time coming, and it’s good that they are finally committed to that process. And when I say committed, I mean committed. In a good way. The process is working, and working faster than many have anticipated. But while the process can be ghastly to the point where it isn’t really fun to watch, the Phillies don’t figure to be that kind of team. In fact, they should be fun.

Among the projected starting rotation and starting lineup, there will only be three players over 30 — Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz and Charlie Morton. Ruiz is a fan favorite, and Morton is a still interesting pitcher who doesn’t have the mileage on him a 32-year-old normally would. Watching Howard might not be pretty, but we’re suddenly in the last year of his contract (assuming Philly isn’t going to pick up his 2017 club option). Hopefully, the season can be spent celebrating all the good things he did in a Phillies uniform — like how he’s still just one of 24 players who has ever hit 40 or more home runs off of right-handed pitching in a single season. Or perhaps the three home runs he hit in the 2008 World Series, or his MVP performance in the 2009 NLCS. There were good times to be had. And hey, at least he got back to hitting righties at an above-average clip last year. That was nice.

Aside from those players, this is not a team that is going to be populated by retreads like last year’s version of the club. In addition to Howard and Ruiz, last year’s Phillies also gave run to 30s-aged players Jonathan Papelbon, Cole Hamels, Jeff Francoeur, Grady Sizemore, Chase Utley, Aaron Harang, Kevin Correia, Jerome Williams and Andres Blanco. Blanco — who oddly produced a 136 wRC+ campaign — is back, but the rest have been excised. The only other potentially prominent 30-something is Matt Harrison, if he can get healthy again. And if he does, his comeback will be a heartwarming story.

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