FanGraphs Baseball | Page 2012 | Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary

Hyun-soo Kim Might Look Familiar to Orioles

December 17, 2015

Wednesday, the Angels quietly picked up Daniel Nava. They did so quietly because there would be no way to do so loudly, and after it was announced, some people started talking seriously about a potential platoon between Nava and Craig Gentry. I don’t know if that’ll happen — I don’t think that’s going to happen — but the mere possibility suggests the Angels aren’t thrilled with the options. It’s a curious thing to consider at the same time as the Orioles agreeing to sign Hyun-soo Kim for two years and $7 million. Kim will be coming from the KBO, so there are the usual questions, but he turns just 28 in a month, and this is middle-reliever money.

For reference, Chad Qualls signed for two years and $6 million. Oliver Perez signed for two years and $7 million. Jonathan Broxton signed for two years and $7.5 million and a no-trade clause. Perfectly useful relievers, all of them, but Kim is lined up to be a starting outfielder, and he’s right around peak age. Without even knowing anything about Kim, the potential value is obvious.

When I first started analyzing Kim, I thought about Nori Aoki. Some people would call that a lazy comp, but I do think it’s within reason. Also, I’ve just had Aoki on my mind lately, so I’m biased. As I’ve thought about this more, though, I’ve arrived at something else. What could Kim turn into in Baltimore? A very familiar-looking player. The Orioles know this skillset.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Revitalization of Trevor Cahill

by Owen Watson

December 17, 2015

We had a pretty good idea of who Trevor Cahill was: owner of a career 4.13/4.27 ERA/FIP, back-end starter, ground ball pitcher. He lost his rotation spot while pitching for the Diamondbacks in 2014. During 2015, he was released by the Braves after a failed transition to the bullpen, and, after opting-out of a minor league contract with the Dodgers, there was the possibility that this might be the end of any meaningful career for him. Still only 27 years old, he wouldn’t have been the first fringy starter to flame out of the league.

In late August, however, he signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, and two weeks later they called him up to the major league bullpen. Something pretty drastic had happened over the course of his time in the bullpens of the three teams he was employed by during 2015, and it all seemed to culminate in his 17 September and October innings for Chicago: he posted a stellar 27% K-BB% during that stretch, returning successfully to his ground ball ways (61.8%) and a 2.12/3.13 ERA/FIP.

Those 17 innings were, of course, a tiny sample size. But in those innings, as well as his successful work during the playoffs, we glimpsed who the new Cahill might be, and it was the pitcher the Cubs think they just signed to a low-risk, one-year, $4.25 million deal last week.

First, we saw a big velocity jump from Cahill in 2015. He almost exclusively throws a sinker as his main fastball, and he increased its velocity in 2015 by about two and a half mph from its highest point in 2014. Take a velocity look at a chart for his sinker for the months of 2014 and 2015, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Cahill_Sinker_Velo

Read the rest of this entry »

Proposing a Dodgers Trade for Chris Archer

by Dave Cameron

December 17, 2015

Yesterday, the Dodgers were involved in the three team trade that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox, presumably because the Reds preferred a different type of prospect than what Chicago could offer. Andrew Friedman and his gang essentially acted as brokers for the other two teams, and took a commission for helping facilitate the trade, upgrading their own stock of prospects in the process.

But when a win-now team chooses to upgrade their prospect stock over simply just acquiring a guy like Frazier for themselves, it raises questions about what the overarching strategy really is. And when Andrew Friedman says stuff like this, the questions seem to be even more legitimate.

Friedman, asked if he is any more comfortable trading elite pitching prospects today than he was yesterday: "Yeah."

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 16, 2015

Of course, to be fair, Friedman also said this.

Friedman said he knows some teams are interested in players Dodgers acquired today but trade is not necessarily precursor to another.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 16, 2015

Ken Rosenthal, the most connected guy out there, published a piece not long after suggesting that this deal might help the Dodgers pursue Jose Fernandez. Based on what the asking price was during the winter meetings, however, perhaps we should actually be looking at the other Florida team when looking for a partner in a mega-trade for the Dodgers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Report: Hisashi Iwakuma Failed Physical

by Jeff Sullivan

December 17, 2015

UPDATE

“Inaccurate” to say #Dodgers are out on Iwakuma, I’m told. Perhaps they’re reworking the contract?

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 17, 2015

—

ORIGINAL

Let’s make one thing clear: I don’t know how to read Japanese. So I can’t confirm what this says, personally, but I don’t see any compelling reason to doubt the report. That report: Hisashi Iwakuma has failed his physical exam with the Dodgers, after the parties came to an agreement on a three-year contract worth $45 million.

Jiji Press reporting the Dodgers backing out from Iwakuma after failed physical. https://t.co/JJ3MMEmWxI

— Kazuto Yamazaki (@Kazuto_Yamazaki) December 17, 2015

For some context, the Mariners openly talked about how re-signing Iwakuma was Priority No. 1, and they extended to him a qualifying offer. Presumably, they’d given Iwakuma a physical of their own. But in talks, the Mariners didn’t want to go to three guaranteed years, so the Dodgers swooped in and lured Iwakuma away. Yet now it appears they see something they don’t like, something that might be more of a long-term concern. Could be Iwakuma projects well for 2016, but things get murky beyond that.

The Dodgers could now turn to Mike Leake, or Scott Kazmir. Or they could tweak the Iwakuma contract. When Matt Kemp had some physical issues discovered, that failed to scuttle his trade to the Padres. When Grant Balfour failed a physical with the Orioles, he eventually signed with another team. And when Mike Napoli had something discovered in his exam with the Red Sox, a three-year deal worth $39 million was re-worked to a one-year deal worth $5 million, with incentives. Those are basically the options, here. It reads like the Dodgers are backing away entirely, but maybe they try to offer Iwakuma a one-year deal to see if he bites.

Down the stretch last season, Iwakuma did lose a bit of velocity. Granted, he also threw a no-hitter, and his August/September/October ERA was 2.63. So, nothing caused his performance to suffer. But he missed a lot of time earlier with a strained right lat, and he had some shoulder problems back when he was pitching in Japan, so it’s not like this comes as a total surprise. Iwakuma would’ve never been described as a workhorse. There have always been some concerns about his durability, and now the Dodgers see something they wish they didn’t. Maybe Iwakuma still has three healthy years left in him, but he’ll have to prove it, and the Dodgers will have to sniff around for improvements to a rotation they already wanted to see get a bit better.

If you want to be an optimist, maybe this could turn Iwakuma into a bargain. That’s spin, though. Because it’s never good news for a pitcher to have an agreement negated because someone didn’t like what they saw in his arm. The pitcher needs the arm to pitch.

Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 12/17/15

by Eno Sarris

December 17, 2015