FG on Fox: A Possibly Troubling Trend for Chris Davis
Let’s face it — there’s no way not to feel uncomfortable about the Chris Davis sweepstakes.
I’m not just referring to how the Orioles and Davis seem to be at something of an impasse. I’m not just referring to how Davis has to this point been unable to drum up much of a market. It’s just, this is going to require a lot of money, and it’s hard to know what Davis is going to be. He’s as much a boom-or-bust player as you can find: Last year, he hit as well as Jose Bautista; the year before, he hit as well as Jed Lowrie. He’s been bad and he’s been an MVP candidate, and there’s a whole lot of space in between.
I don’t think player comps can be much help. For one thing, there just aren’t very many. Davis is an unusual player, historically speaking, given his massive power and his massive strikeout side effect. Maybe the two best comps are Jim Thome and Ryan Howard, and their careers went in completely opposite directions. Those comps are as unhelpful as Davis’ recent track record. He could turn out really amazing. He could be a disaster. This isn’t particularly illuminating.
Davis is 230 pounds of uncertainty. The extent of his success will be determined by what happens with a handful of swings every season, and there’s a lot of room for that to go right or wrong. Basically, there’s no achieving actual comfort. There’s only pursuing artificial comfort. That comes out of just learning more information — more knowledge has to be a good thing, right? — so let’s take a look at something that’s been going on under the hood. Let’s learn more about Davis, even if it might not ultimately help to understand what his future’s going to be.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
More like Chris DIVA.
Interesting piece. My recollection about Thome was that he waited on his swings and hit the ball to left center with great power. As to the Thome/Howard comparison, I always thought it was fascinating that the Phillies made what was the smart move by trading the then 34 year-old Thome, who was coming off a terrible year/elbow surgery, to play their new star, Ryan Howard, who was turning 26. Thome tacked on another 182 HR and about 17 bWAR. Howard has managed only 13 bWAR since.
Agree, interesting indeed. David’s problem is , I think, there just isn’t anything above average about him to hang your hat on such that you can live with some of the inconsistency. He is an average defender and an average base runner and and inconsistent masher at the plate. You may sign him to a 6 year deal and get 2 years of .275/.320/.650 and 4 years of .225/.255/.400…..One of those slash lines is easily worth 25m and the other is replacement level if the defense isn’t anything special. Personally, if I was looking for a bat I would take Cespedes or Upton over Davis . I know neither of those two can mash like Davis, but they won’t be so volitile either.
I don’t know about that. Cespedes has a pretty piss poor OBP. If his power goes, he’s pretty worthless at the plate. He’s also heading into the years where his speed will likely diminish as well.
Justin Upton would have, IMO, been the best pick.
Chris Davis pulled 2% of his fly balls in 2011?
*looks it up*
Gosh.
He reminds me of 2011-12 Josh Hamilton. He’s slightly younger but he may be about to hit the same wall. Obviously Hamilton had more wear and tear from the drugs but had played fewer games, for what that’s worth.
I’d be extremely wary of signing Davis for more than three to four years.
For what it’s worth, I believe RotoGraphs had a quick blurb about effectiveness following injury. Chris Davis was listed as a player who came back early from an oblique injury and his performance in 2014 suffered for that.
$161 million. Ugh. As fun as it has been to watch Chris Davis on the Orioles, I’m depressed about this contract.
One hypothesis is that the money going to Chris Davis is money that would have have been otherwise spent on the team, so this could be not a disaster.
Wow, a triple negative in the first sentence? You had me right there.