Ben and Sam discuss the Shelby Miller trade between the Diamondbacks and Braves, and the Cubs’ Starlin Castro trade and Ben Zobrist signing.
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Check out the MLB Trade Rumors page for Justin Upton, and you find something strange. Since a report on November 13 that the outfielder had been extended a qualifying offer, Upton has been invoked just three times there — in one case, with the Angels, merely to note that “nothing is happening” between Upton and the club. Los Angeles was merely engaged in “ongoing conversations” with Upton’s representatives. Whether those conversations are about a possible contract or fondue, no one knows. They’re having conversations.
Now check out the Ben Zobrist page. Even before signing last night with the Cubs, his name was ubiquitous across the site.
And that’s weird. One is 34 and was worth two wins last year. The other is 28 and was worth almost twice as much. You’d think the rumor count would be reversed.
Earlier today, I published a post profiling a few of the hitters whom KATOH likes and who will be available in this week’s Rule 5 draft. Below, I repeat that exercise for pitchers.
As I did earlier, I will once again note that KATOH’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. In other words, this compilation of names is skewed more towards guys on the young end of the spectrum, and not necessarily towards guys who are most likely to contribute in 2016.
Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite pitchers who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven pitchers who are relatively close to being big league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.
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Seven Big League Ready(ish) Pitchers
Miguel Sulbaran, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR
Sulbaran pitched mostly at the Double-A level last year, where he turned in a solid 3.62 FIP. Sulbaran doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, but he’s allowed very few homers in the minors. The end result was a perfectly acceptable performance as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He’s also a lefty, which might appeal to teams looking to add one of those to their bullpen.
| 11:48 |
: So, this will probably be a boring chat, since nothing is really going on. No big trades last night or anything.
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| 11:52 |
: Obviously, the Shelby Miller trade is probably going to dominate the day, but we’ll work on getting to other stuff too. Maybe. I don’t know. The Shelby Miller trade!
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| 11:52 |
: We’re going to start a few minutes early today, since the queue is already full, so let’s get this fired up.
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| 11:53 |
: Think we’re done with major moves for the Winter Meetings? Seems quiet, like some folks may have found earlier flights home.
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| 11:54 |
: Some GMs might catch the last flight out tonight, but probably only the ones who are sure they’re not going to do anything. I’d imagine every team in baseball is trying to figure out how to call Dave Stewart and do something today, so even if they don’t have something obvious, they’re going to be trying.
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| 11:54 |
: Did you see the ZiPS projections on Adam Warren? Do you really think he’s a mid 3 WAR SP, and a 1-1.5 WAR RP?
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The Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville, which means all 30 GMs are under the same roof for a few days. As you’re probably aware, this has already resulted in a few high–profile transactions. Less interestingly, this also means the Rule 5 draft is upon us.
Below, I touch on a few of the available hitters who catch KATOH’s eye. Keep in mind that KATOH is designed to identify the best prospects overall, so it’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Carlos Tocci, who features an interesting profile but is unlikely prepared for the majors, is this year’s embodiment of that phenomenon.
Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. Some prime examples from this year’s class are Jabari Blash and Balbino Fuenmayor. Yes, I chose those two as examples due to their double-plus names. I didn’t touch on players like Blash or Fuenmayor here, though, since they’re slightly outside of KATOH’s wheelhouse. If they’re selected, I’ll take a look at them after the draft.
Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite hitters who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven hitters who are relatively close to being big-league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.
*****
Seven Big-League-Ready(ish) Hitters
Todd Glaesmann, OF, Arizona (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.0 WAR
Glaesmann hit a powerful .278/.316/.540 in the minors last year, with most of those reps coming at the Triple-A level. The 6-foot-4 outfielder has struggled to make contact in the past, but slashed his strikeout rate to a respectable 19% in Triple-A last year. Glaesmann has succeeded at the Triple-A level, but his lack of consistent contact still makes it unclear how much he’ll hit in the big leagues. His atrocious 2014 campaign is also a blemish on his otherwise encouraging statistical track record.
As everyone reading this is by now undoubtedly aware, Monday’s proposed blockbuster trade that would have sent Aroldis Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds to the Los Angeles Dodgers is on hold, following reports that the star closer was allegedly involved in a domestic incident with his girlfriend back in October. Although the Reds remain free to trade Chapman pending Major League Baseball’s investigation of the incident under the league’s new domestic violence policy, the market for Chapman is reported to have predictably dried up as teams wait to learn what type of punishment the pitcher will face.
It remains unclear how much, if anything, the Reds knew about the allegations against Chapman prior to Monday’s media reports, or if the team took any steps to notify potential trade partners of the incident. Nevertheless, the episode has raised questions regarding the extent to which teams are expected to disclose unfavorable information of this sort to one another during trade discussions.
As is so often the case, this is an area in which MLB operates a bit differently than most other industries.
After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City / Toronto.
Batters
Reason dictates that the 2016 season is unlikely to be a successful one for the Phillies in terms of “wins” on the “field” — nor do the forecasts produced by ZiPS contradict that notion. It’s rare, for example, for a starting position player to receive a negative WAR projection. This is precisely the case, however, for the club’s expected first-base platoon. After consecutive seasons and over 1,100 total plate appearances of below-average offensive production, Ryan Howard is projected once again to record a batting line roughly 10% worse than the league. Darin Ruf offers similar limitations from the right side of the plate.
The roster isn’t without some promise, however. Center fielder Odubel Herrera, a Rule 5 selection from just last year, is expected to continue converting batted balls into hits at an uncommon rate. That, along with above-average defense, conspires to render him a nearly three-win player. Maikel Franco, for his part, appears likely to compensate for his defensive limitations at third base by means of an advanced bat.
The reliever period of the offseason is over. We can now move on. Most of the league, it seemed, was waiting on Ben Zobrist’s decision before kicking their offseason into high-gear. Zobrist has made his decision. He’ll be going to the Cubs, on a four-year deal worth $56 million dollars. With Zobrist out of the way, you’ll soon begin hearing Yoenis Cespedes rumors, and Justin Upton rumors, and Alex Gordon rumors. Zobrist was the domino that needed to fall to set the rest of the offseason into action. That much is true for the Cubs, too.
With Zobrist in the fold, the Cubs held an obvious surplus of talent. Too many players for too few positions. The Starlin Castro rumors and the Javier Baez rumors had persisted for so long, and it was clear the Cubs had something else lined up when they agreed to terms with Zobrist. Within the hour, Castro had been shipped to the Yankees for righty Adam Warren and veteran utility man Brendan Ryan.
Castro is simply the fallout from the Zobrist move. Castro’s owed $37 million over the next four seasons, and no longer had a position in Chicago. That’s pricey for a backup. Something had to give. The Yankees needed a second baseman, and the money isn’t much a factor to them, and so they were willing to part with a 28-year-old swingman with eye-popping projections and a utility man on the last legs of his career. Castro should be fine as the starting second baseman in New York, and it’s easy to forget he’s still just 25 years old. Between Castro, Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder, the Yankees shouldn’t need to worry about second base. But the Yankees aren’t the interesting part of the action, here. The Cubs are.
Just yesterday, we thought the Wade Miley trade might’ve been lopsided. And, you know, maybe. But now we’re on another level. Forget the Wade Miley trade. Now we have the Shelby Miller trade. Kudos to the Diamondbacks — they got Miller, who they wanted. They also got Gabe Speier, who is a player. But Miller didn’t come for free. In exchange, the Braves got Ender Inciarte. Also, the Braves got Dansby Swanson. Also, the Braves got Aaron Blair. Inciarte being a quality, cost-controlled outfielder. Swanson being last year’s first overall pick. Blair being possibly or probably a top-100 starter prospect who’s close to the majors. Don’t get me wrong, Miller is plenty interesting. He ought to help Arizona. Yet the trade looks like a clear, obvious mistake.
You always want to let the first impression settle. You always want to think these things through, to try to make sense from both sides if you can. Sometimes, though, you remain feeling how you initially felt. There’s a parallel you can draw here — the last time I felt like this about a trade, the Royals picked up James Shields. At this point, the Royals don’t regret what they did. There was a way for that to work out for them, just as there’s a way for this to work out for Arizona. But the Shields trade went almost as well for Kansas City as possible. And there’s no Wade Davis in this move. Inciarte might play the part of Wil Myers. Swanson might play the part of Wil Myers. There are two options, with Blair more or less playing the part of Jake Odorizzi. This could easily be a bigger haul, for very probably a lesser return. Occasionally there are bad trades. This is among the worst of them.
The Braves have reportedly sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for 25-year-old outfielder Ender Inciarte, 23-year-old right-hander Aaron Blair, and last year’s number one overall pick, 21-year-old shortstop Dansby Swanson. The Diamondbacks get a good pitcher under control for three years, and the Braves continue their rebuilding process.
