Giants Invest In Jeff Samardzija, Dave Righetti

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December 5, 2015

Want to know an easy way to provoke someone into complaining about how all professional athletes are overpaid? Tell this person there was a pitcher last year who led all of baseball in both hits and runs allowed. And I mean “led” in the bad way, not the good way. Let that sink in, then tell the person the pitcher was a free agent, and finally tell the person that pitcher signed for five years and $90 million. More often than not, a rant is going to follow. It’s going to be a weird rant, that misses the point about how much money there is floating around in baseball these days, and the reality is that players are getting less of the league revenue than they used to. But you already knew it would be a weird rant. That’s why you targeted this given individual in the first place.

There are people who like to say that free agency is about rewarding players for what they’ve already done. To some extent it’s true — free agents score when they’ve proven they can be good. But of course, free agency is really about investing in the future, and I’m not sure it gets more clear than it is right here, with the Giants paying pretty big money for a pitcher coming off a conventionally disappointing season. This isn’t about what Jeff Samardzija’s done, certainly not what he’s done most recently. This is about what the Giants think Samardzija is going to be. Heaven knows they weren’t alone.

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Zack Greinke and the Importance of 2016

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December 5, 2015

Zack Greinke looks to be worth what the Diamondbacks will be paying him. We still don’t have a complete idea of the structure of his contract, so it’s not like everything can be nailed down precisely, but he’s one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball, and he’s going to get paid like it. When you factor in everything he does — pitch, hit, defend — Greinke’s projected contract comes out looking a lot like his actual contract. So, based on our usual estimates, this is a totally acceptable free-agent deal. Good for Greinke, good for Arizona.

Here’s where it gets more complicated: those usual estimates don’t do much to account for team context. Let’s say the going rate for a win in free agency is $8 million. The specific number doesn’t matter. That’s what any team should expect to pay. But you can’t pay everyone free-agent money — that would mean, to expect 40 team WAR, you’d need a payroll of $320 million. $8 million might be the cost of a win in free agency, for every team, but not every team has the same total $/WAR target. As always, the biggest-spending teams have an advantage. Teams like the Diamondbacks need to be more careful.

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Giants Sign Jeff Samardzija

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December 5, 2015

A day after missing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants quickly turned to their secondary plan.

Even coming off a miserable season, Samardzija was still able to land a deal for $18 million per year, $3 million more per season than I predicted, and well north of the $64 million the crowd projected. The Giants, like the other suitors, chose to look beyond his 2015 performance, and are paying for the expected future value that lies in a right-arm that still owns premium stuff.

Even with the lousy 2015 season on his track record, Steamer still sees roughly a +3 WAR pitcher going forward, so this deal isn’t nearly as crazy as one might think by just looking at most recent season.

Jeff Samardzija’s Contract Estimate — 5 yr / $77.4 M
Year Age WAR $/WAR Est. Value
2016 31 2.8 $8.0 M $22.4 M
2017 32 2.3 $8.4 M $19.3 M
2018 33 1.8 $8.8 M $15.9 M
2019 34 1.3 $9.3 M $12.0 M
2020 35 0.8 $9.7 M $7.8 M
Totals 9.0 $77.4 M
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

Dan Szymborski put up the ZIPS forecast for Samardzija on Twitter, and it’s even more optimistic.

While $90 million isn’t cheap, Samardzija doesn’t project dramatically worse than Jordan Zimmermann going forward, and this is the price range the market is establishing for above average pitchers. And by signing Samardzija for $90 million, the Giants likely have room to add a second starter as well while still coming in under the total amount they would have had to pay Greinke over the next five or six years.

While there will likely be lots of criticism of this deal from those who simply look at Samardzija’s disaster season in Chicago, the stuff and the longer track record suggest that he’s still a quality arm who just had a bad year. $90 million isn’t a bargain, especially when you factor in the cost of the draft pick surrendered to sign him, but Samardzija’s a good pitcher who will help the team win, and this isn’t a dramatic overpay for a team looking to win in the short-term.


The Best of FanGraphs: November 30-December 4, 2015

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December 5, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke, NL West Gets More Interesting

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December 4, 2015

Tonight, we saw the internet trolled by a fake account saying that Zack Greinke had signed with the Giants. Just when those foolish enough to fall for the troll (note: this includes me) were calming down, real reporters announced that Greinke had in fact signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The marvelous Ken Rosenthal has the deal at six years, $206 million, which would be a record for pitching average annual value (though he notes that some of the money may be deferred).

While this might not be truly astounding, as the Dbacks have indicated a desire to land an ace this offseason and shown a particular interest in Greinke, it’s still a little unexpected. The signing brings the Dbacks a modicum of respectability, and opens up the possibility that the 2016 National League West will be more than the two-horse race it’s been in recent years.

Through much of Friday, the Dbacks starting rotation depth chart looked like this:

SP Diamondbacks

Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Patrick Corbin 187.0 7.9 2.3 1.0 .301 73.8 % 3.47 3.65 3.0
Rubby de la Rosa 174.0 7.5 3.1 1.1 .301 71.4 % 4.08 4.14 1.7
Robbie Ray 148.0 8.8 3.7 1.0 .299 72.6 % 3.88 3.95 1.8
Chase Anderson 137.0 7.4 2.6 1.2 .299 72.9 % 3.95 4.15 1.4
Archie Bradley 122.0 7.6 4.1 0.9 .302 70.4 % 4.32 4.31 1.0
Zachary Godley 100.0 7.2 3.6 1.1 .301 70.5 % 4.40 4.43 0.7
Josh Collmenter 47.0 5.8 2.2 1.4 .295 73.8 % 4.15 4.63 0.2
Andrew Schugel 28.0 6.1 3.0 1.1 .302 70.7 % 4.32 4.44 0.2
Total 943.0 7.6 3.1 1.0 .300 72.1 % 3.98 4.10 9.9

That 9.9 WAR wasn’t really blowing anyone’s skirt up. Let’s add Greinke to the mix:

SP Diamondbacks

Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Zack Greinke 222.0 8.2 2.0 0.9 .301 75.3 % 3.18 3.39 4.2
Patrick Corbin 187.0 7.9 2.3 1.0 .301 73.8 % 3.47 3.65 3.0
Rubby de la Rosa 145.0 7.5 3.1 1.1 .301 71.4 % 4.08 4.14 1.5
Robbie Ray 139.0 8.8 3.7 1.0 .299 72.6 % 3.88 3.95 1.7
Chase Anderson 119.0 7.4 2.6 1.2 .299 72.9 % 3.95 4.15 1.2
Archie Bradley 75.0 7.6 4.1 0.9 .302 70.4 % 4.32 4.31 0.6
Zachary Godley 27.0 7.2 3.6 1.1 .301 70.5 % 4.40 4.43 0.2
Josh Collmenter 28.0 5.8 2.2 1.4 .295 73.8 % 4.15 4.63 0.1
Andrew Schugel 28.0 6.1 3.0 1.1 .302 70.7 % 4.32 4.44 0.2
Total 970.0 7.8 2.8 1.0 .300 73.0 % 3.75 3.89 12.6

Let’s be clear — adding Greinke to the mix doesn’t instantly make the Dbacks World Series favorites, but they’ve leapfrogged from the bottom of the starting pitching pile into the middle of the pack. Greinke’s inclusion represents a projected upgrade of 2.7 WAR, as the majority of the innings that he will be taking were from near-replacement-level pitchers. (Also, this is just a quick and dirty projection of how the innings for the rest of the staff will shake out. It might not be 100% accurate, but you get the idea — some incumbents not named Patrick Corbin will see fewer innings next season.)

Before, Arizona was in a dead heat with the Marlins for the 24th-best projected rotation. Now, they’re in a dead heat for 14th overall with the Rangers and Mariners, and eighth in the NL. That’s a lot better than where they were 24 hours ago.

Dave delved into why Greinke is worth $200 million earlier today, and we’ll undoubtedly have more on this deal in the coming days, but Dbacks fans can be elated tonight. The Dbacks had to give up the 13th pick in the coming draft to net Greinke, but that is a small price to pay for landing one of the top pitchers in the game. And again, he’s not just good at pitching. As Dave mentioned and as Jeff has covered before, he is good at hitting. Oh, and fielding, too.

Not everyone is a big fan of the second wild card, and I count myself in the camp of those who are critical of it. But one of the effects of adding a second wild card is that the barrier to playoff entry is lower than it was in the past. With Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke, and A.J. Pollock leading the way, and good supporting players like Ender Inciarte, David Peralta, Jake Lamb and Corbin, the Dbacks as contenders is no longer far fetched. As August noted earlier this week, the Dbacks have shown the ability to hang around the .500 mark. Now, they may show the ability to get to 85-88 wins, and if they can, the NL West is going to be really fun to watch.


Cubs Link Up With Lackey

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December 4, 2015

This afternoon, the Chicago Cubs found their free-agent pitcher in right-hander John Lackey. According to the marvelous Ken Rosenthal, the deal is of the two-year variety, and will pay Lackey $32-34 million. There are a few interesting things to dissect here, but right off the top it fills up the Cubs rotation, so let’s start there.

Lackey comfortably slots in behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, and perhaps Kyle Hendricks, depending on how you feel about him. But given Lackey’s veteran presence, let’s assume that he will be the Cubs number-three starter, with Hendricks and Jason Hammel slotting in behind him. That’s a solid rotation. It has star power, and it has legitimate depth in Travis Wood and prospect Carl Edwards. All of the five starters project to be worth at least 2 WAR. Of the remaining free-agent pitchers, Lackey was tied with Wei-Yen Chen for fifth in projected 2016 WAR. Lackey was significantly cheaper than Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, and comes with a longer track record than Hisashi Iwakuma or Chen. In other words, it’s the sort of signing you would expect from Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Co.

This also marks the second time that Epstein has signed Lackey, as he was still in command of the Red Sox baseball operations when Boston brought Lackey aboard in December of 2009. It’s not hard to see why Epstein would have a fondness for the Texas-bred righty. Aside from 2012, which he missed due to injury, Lackey has tossed 160 innings or more in every year since 2003. And in most of those years, he’s been average or better. In his first full season in Anaheim, he only logged 1.9 WAR, as he hadn’t ratcheted up his strikeout percentage quite yet. In 2008, some trouble with the long ball limited him to 1.4 WAR. And then in 2011, when he pitched hurt, he logged a paltry 0.9 WAR, though in retrospect it was sort of amazing that he was pitching at all. In the other nine full seasons of his career, he’s been worth at least 2.4 WAR, and at least 3.1 in seven of the nine.

Over the last year-plus, he proved that he was completely adaptable to the National League. In fact, little seems to faze Lackey outside of boneheaded plays by his fielders or being pulled out of a game mid-inning. On Slack, Jeff Sullivan described him as “boringly consistent,” and if you don’t believe him, just look at Lackey’s average fastball velocity — 91.5-91.7 mph for each of the last four years. Over the last two years, Lackey has junked his slider for a two-seamer (at least, according to PITCHf/x), but other than that he’s not much different.

If you’re thinking that $32 million is a lot of coin for a pitcher entering his age-37 season, well, I suppose you’re not technically wrong. And if we were to look up the pitchers who netted contracts of $10+ million per year heading into their age-37 season, it’d probably be a short list. But if you think Lackey is between a two-and-three-win pitcher and that a win on the market costs between $7 and $8 million, well then this is a pretty fair deal given our current market conditions. And perhaps there is some extra synergy in Lackey being back with old friend Jon Lester. Epstein and Hoyer clearly aren’t afraid of another chicken and beer scandal.

The Cubs don’t necessarily need to be done working on their starting rotation. But if they are done, they should not only have a good starting rotation, but a stable one. Contrast that to the health question marks in that rotation to the southwest (Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Jaime Garcia) and the defections in that rotation to the east (A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ) and the Cubs may just head to spring training as the favorites in the National League Central.


A Market Correction for Arbitration-Eligible Sluggers

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December 4, 2015

In Major League Baseball, the market tends to correct itself as clubs gain greater knowledge of players and their value. If aging players are less successful, the market for that group might slow a bit. Bullpen arms become more or less desirable depending on their scarcity. Increased revenues tend to move everyone up the pay scale. It is important to understand how and when to make adjustments in value as run-scoring environments, finances, and aging patterns change.

That is all well and good for those who run organizations and those who follow the game closely, but the arbitration process is much less nuanced. The non-tendering of contracts to Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter, along with the trade of Mark Trumbo, are all the result of a failure to adjust — within the arbitration process, specifically — as the market slowly corrects for the overpayment of defensively- (and sometimes offensively-) limited home run hitters whose overall effectiveness has dimmed.

The arbitration process tends to favor the traditional stats that place like FanGraphs have tried to de-emphasize. Closers get big paydays in arbitratio, regardless of overall performance. As a result, the St. Louis Cardinals opted to let Steve Cishek go instead of moving to arbitration where he would receive a salary of around $7 million. Home runs and RBI tend to get paid as well, causing an overpayment for those players who rack up those numbers, but have big deficiencies in other areas.

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Coming to Terms with Carlos Carrasco’s Trade Value

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December 4, 2015

The rumors began back in July, and they’ve persisted since. “Cleveland has been willing to listen on pitching, particularly Carlos Carrasco,” read Jeff Passan’s tweet. That came a week before the July 31 trade deadline, and during that week, Carrasco was linked strongly to the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. The deadline came and went, and Carrasco remained an Indian, yet the rumors haven’t stopped.

On October 11, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo wrote “There’s no question the Indians are going to deal a starting pitcher for a hitter this offseason,” invoking the names of both Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Two weeks later, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times expected the Cubs to reengage the Carrasco talks over the offseason. Then, earlier this week, ESPN’s Buster Olney reignited the Carrasco rumor storm by bringing to light a Carrasco for Brandon Belt and Joe Panik framework that was discussed, but ultimately shot down by the Giants.

Wrote Olney:

“…[that] might seem outrageous until you place the value of a pitcher like Carrasco — more to the point, the value of his contract — in an era in which No. 4-type starters like J.A. Happ are getting $12 million a year in multiyear deals.”

Say, what’s Carrasco worth, anyway? There’s no definitive answer, of course — everyone’s got their own opinions. But the best you can do is use all the information at your disposal and figure out a ballpark estimate.

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The Demise of Peter Bourjos in St. Louis

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December 4, 2015

If you are a frequent user of this website, you likely know that on our player pages, you can find the five most-recently cited articles about a player — a mix of FanGraphs and RotoGraphs articles. Generally, a regular player will be written about at least five times a year. But when I sat down to write this piece, when I went to Peter Bourjos‘ page, the fifth article was Dave Cameron’s piece from Nov. 22, 2013, reacting to the news that Bourjos had been traded from Anaheim to St. Louis along with Randal Grichuk, for David Freese. That in and of itself is a bad sign. While we once thought of Bourjos as one of the game’s premier defenders, Bourjos — who was claimed this week via waivers by the Phillies — is an after-thought.

In that 2013 piece, Dave noted how Bourjos had basically become the best defensive center fielder in the game:

Since 2010, here are the top 5 center fielders in UZR/150 among players who have spent at least 2,000 innings in center field.

Peter Bourjos, +20.2
Carlos Gomez, +18.2
Jacoby Ellsbury, +13.7
Michael Bourn, +9.9
Denard Span, +9.5

The deal seemed like a great one for the Cardinals — and thanks to Grichuk, it may still be — but Bourjos never really held up his end of the bargain. In his four seasons with the Angels, he played 405 games — effectively two and a half seasons — and piled up 9.2 WAR. Not bad, right? That’s something between three and four WAR over a full season. Full seasons were hard to come by for Bourjos, though, which is why the playing time was spread out over four seasons. Still, hope sprung eternal when he landed in St. Louis.

Of note, Bourjos set a goal of stealing 40 bases in his first season in St. Louis. (Hat tip to Scott Perdue for the reminder) This was always going to be a bit of a stretch, as Bourjos, to that point, had just 41 stolen bases over his four-year career, against 13 times caught stealing. Clearly he had the speed, and a knack for stealing bases, but when your career high is 22 steals, shooting for 40 is a lofty goal.

That’s not really the point. The point is that he was excited. And the Cardinals appeared excited, as well. Bourjos started on Opening Day, and eight of the first 10 games in center. And then… he stopped playing. After those 10 games, Bourjos was hitting just .207/.258/.310, and while it was just 31 plate appearances, manager Mike Matheny had seen enough to know that he didn’t want Bourjos to be his everyday center fielder. Bourjos would start just six of the next 17 games in center, with Jon Jay logging the other 11 starts. And then Grichuk was called up. He and Jay would start the next five games, and then Bourjos reclaimed the job, as the Cards optioned Grichuk back to Triple-A. If this seems like an odd playing time pattern, well, let’s just say it wasn’t an isolated incident for Matheny.

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Mike Pelfrey Gets Two Years from the Tigers

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December 4, 2015

The Tigers just signed Mike Pelfrey to a two-year deal worth $16 million. The big right-hander has a good fastball, a penchant for licking his fingers, and a split-finger that’s decent for grounders, but he still shows up on the bottom of an important leaderboard. Despite that, he’s been an average major league player four times in his career, and he’s projected to be worth the deal.

Turns out, he has one ability that is elite. And if he continues to display that skill, the Tigers will have made out on this short deal.

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