Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/28/15

12:07
Dan Szymborski: I’m here! Sorry, Papelbon fighting on Twitter

12:07
Comment From RotoLando
If Dueling was an acceptable form of conflict resolution, would we have more or less idiots in the world?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Oh, more I’m more I’m sure. You’d see all sorts of excessive lawsuits stemming

12:08
Comment From Zen
bigger choke job: nationals season or papelbon?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I think the Nats. We all expected the Nats to be good. We never really expected Papelbon to not be an asshole.

12:08
Comment From Phillies113
If I were the Nationals manager and, as a Phillies fan, was actively trying to sabotage the team, would I still be a better manager than Matt Williams?

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, September 28, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
McCullers (114.2 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Elias (107.1 IP, 106 xFIP-)
There are probably reasons to continue following the outcomes of National League games over this final week of the season, but nearly zero of them concern the influence of those same games on what might be called the “postseason landscape.” Indeed, so far as postseason landscapes are concerned, the American League has developed a monopoly on them. The Western division, in particular, is not unlike a mountain road populated almost exclusively by scenic vistas of postseason landscapes.

Regard, the current playoff odds of the three relevant clubs, rendered into a handsome table:

The American League West, Currently
Team W L GB EXPW EXPL DIV WC POFF
1 Rangers 84 71 0.0 87.5 74.5 81.4% 12.7% 94.1%
2 Astros 82 74 2.5 85.4 76.6 8.9% 56.6% 65.5%
3 Angels 81 74 3.0 84.7 77.3 9.7% 25.0% 34.7%

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Adrian Beltre on Hitting

There is no one single way to be good at baseball, which is part of why it’s so amazing. Just last week we peeked into the mind of a man with one of the lowest swing rates in baseball when we asked Joey Votto how he does it. And this week? Let’s ask Adrian Beltre.

“I’m probably the opposite,” Beltre laughed when he heard Votto’s name. “I’m thinking swing first and take second. I don’t have that discipline.”

It’s hard to argue with him, but he has been a top-ten all-time third baseman. “It’s probably not the way to do it,” he said with that trademarked smile, “but it has worked for me.”

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NERD Game Scores for Sunday, September 27, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 14:10 ET
Perez (65.2 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Keuchel (219.0 IP, 68 xFIP-)
Houston’s win Saturday (box) — on the strength largely of a combined four home runs from their middle infield alone — allowed the club to reclaim a game in the standings from Texas in the AL West and, more importantly, to retain a half-game lead over Los Angeles for the second wild-card spot. With seven dates left on their schedule, however, basically nothing has been resolved wherein the Astros’ postseason future is concerned. According to the methodology used at the site, they possess a 60% probability of qualifying for the playoffs in some form and 32% probability of advancing to the divisional series. The suspense, not unlike a cave-aged gruyère or cave-aged some other sort of comestible, is delicious.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Sunday Notes: Forsythe’s Breakout, Britton’s Aim, Bullpen Banter, more

Logan Forsythe isn’t sure he can explain his breakout. At least not definitively. The Tampa Bay infielder points to consistency, but that’s more byproduct than causation. He indirectly cites BABiP – “I’ve had some balls fall this year” – but it’s not as though his .323 mark is outlandish.

Opportunity might be a bigger factor. His high-water mark for seasonal plate appearances had been 350 – with the Padres in 2012 – and he’s already come to the dish 606 times. He’s taking advantage of the increased playing time. A .235/.343/.303 hitter coming into the campaign, Forsythe is slashing .282/.359/.446, and his 17 home runs are nearly double his career total. He’s been worth 4.1 WAR.

The 28-year-old second baseman was fielding a familiar question when I inquired as to why he’s having a good year. He’s been asked that a lot – not a bad problem to have – and his response suggests it’s largely the regular reps.

“The biggest thing is being consistent,” Forsythe told me. “That’s the recurring word I keep using. I expected to be that super-utility type again, but we had a few guys go down with injuries. That sucked, but it did give me an opportunity. I’ve had stints in my career where I’ve taken a simpler approach – I’ve just stayed in a routine – and the consistency of my play took over. This year reminds me of when I was playing every day in the minor leagues.”

It’s hard to say whether the Rays expected this type of production when they acquired Forsythe from San Diego in a seven-player deal prior to last season. His versatility was his calling card, but he possessed other qualities as well. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Kiley McDaniel Analyzes All AGMs

Episode 598
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses recent debuts by Cubs prospect Carl Edwards and the other (Houston’s) Matt Duffy, the likely forthcoming debut of German-born Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler, and varying roles of the league’s assistant general managers.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 3 min play time.)

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NERD Game Scores for Saturday, September 26, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 13:05 ET
Holland (47.1 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. McHugh (190.0 IP, 98 xFIP-)
Now possessing merely a half-game advantage over Los Angeles for the AL’s second wild-card spot, it’s fair probably to state that Houston is likely to qualify for the postseason only by the “skin of their teeth.” Were it not for this rare medical condition — which is known medically as dermadentosis and affects literally dozens — the Astros’ odds might be even worse. This afternoon, they endeavor simultaneously to separate themselves from the Angels while advancing on the division-leading Rangers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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The Best of FanGraphs: September 21-25, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre Remain Conspicuously Delightful

Besides the fact that they’re natives of Latin America and play baseball and haven’t died ever, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre are basically carbon copies of mid-century comedy duo Burns and Allen. What the footage here — from, like, five minutes ago — what the footage here reveals is another installment in their ongoing series of amusing scenarios. In this particular case, Beltre (first) feigns as though he intends to catch Jon Singleton’s pop-up but then (second) doesn’t catch that same pop-up. The premise is simple; the effect, nevertheless, profound. Andrus and Beltre for president? No one hasn’t not said it. No one hasn’t ever not said it real hard.


Effectively Wild Episode 732: Andy McCullough on A-Rod, the Royals, and Rock

Ben and Sam talk to Kansas City Star Royals beat writer Andy McCullough about Alex Rodriguez, several Royals-related topics, and 1990s music.