Minor-League Trading Arsenals – Pre-Deadline Update

Last week, we took a look at each AL and NL club’s arsenal of minor-league prospects, with which they could pursue coveted established big leaguers at the deadline. A number of transactions have been made since then, so an update would be useful in advance of the anticipated storm of moves likely to take place before the sands run out of the hourglass on Friday. Which teams are best positioned to acquire the remaining plums on the market?

As we did last week, we’ll rank the 30 minor-league systems based upon my midseason position-player and starting-pitcher rankings. If you aren’t familiar with my minor-league lists, here is a brief refresher. They aren’t pure top-prospect lists; they basically serve as follow lists, after which traditional scouting methods are used to tweak the order. Qualification for my lists are based upon a combination of performance and age relative to league/level. The younger a prospect is at each level, the less production is required to get him onto the list. At level-specific “optimal ages” (22 at AAA, 21 at AA, 20 at High-A, 19 at Low-A), a player qualifies regardless of performance. At level-specific, much older ages (26 at AAA, 25 at AA, 24 at High-A, 23 at Low-A), you can’t qualify for the list no matter how loud your performance. Only full-season league prospects are considered.

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Start Speculating: David Price is Available

After a few weeks of will-they-or-won’t-they speculation, the Tigers have reportedly decided that 2015 just isn’t going to be their year after all, and are going to start taking offers for pending free agents David Price and Yoenis Cespedes, among others. Price should be expected to command an equal (or likely somewhat better) return to what Johnny Cueto fetched from the Royals, while Cespedes becomes another option in an outfield market that is suddenly looking a little bit crowded.

The teams in the hunt for rent-an-aces have been pretty clearly defined, with the Blue Jays and Dodgers mentioned the most frequently, and the Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Astros also a possibility. With Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir at the front of their rotation, the Astros might not be as inclined to pay for a third lefty, which might make them a little too easy to match up against in a postseason series, so I’d probably put them on the outer edges of the Price market, but they reportedly made a run at Cole Hamels, so it’s not impossible to think they’ll pivot to make a run at Price as well.

I still don’t think the Cubs really should be in the market for a frontline starter not under control beyond this season either, as they have both Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta as legitimate options to start a Wild Card game and Game 1 of a postseason series if they reach those spots. Giving up significant long-term assets to bump one of their best players out of the only playoff game they might appear in doesn’t seem like a good risk-reward balance.

So for my money, the front-runners should be Toronto, LA (if they don’t get Hamels), San Francisco, and New York. But the deadline is often full of mystery, and no one saw the Jon Lester/Yoenis Cespedes trade coming a year ago, so perhaps we’ll see another surprise entry into the market to give Detroit the kind of short-term package they’re looking for. With Dombrowski stating that this is a “reboot” towards making their 2016 team better, this isn’t going to be about getting the best prospect package back, but about who can offer the most short-term help for the Tigers roster next year.

The Cespedes market isn’t as clear cut, as a number of teams could use another good outfielder. Considering that he’s having a better season than Justin Upton and the Tigers don’t have a qualifying offer to use as leverage to demand a certain minimum return in order to make a deal, teams interested in Upton may do well to pivot to Cespedes instead. The big losers in this news are likely the San Diego Padres, who might have just seen their interested buyers get distracted by newer and shinier objects up in Detroit.


Marlins Flip Mat Latos to Dodgers for -1 Prospect

The headline isn’t the way the Marlins would put it. It’s not the only way to interpret Wednesday’s trade — it’s just one way to do so. The Dodgers, who’ve been in the market for rotation help, convinced the Marlins to sell them Mat Latos. The price for Los Angeles: accepting, along with Latos, Michael Morse. To soften that blow, the Marlins have thrown in a competitive-balance draft pick, to be made after the end of the first round. Now, technically, the Dodgers are sending the Marlins three minor-league pitchers. So it’s not a pure sale, and we don’t know who those players are, so maybe a conclusion shouldn’t be jumped to, but this one feels pretty safe. Those pitchers are presumably the equivalent of nothing. They won’t be as valuable as the player that draft pick turns into. The Marlins sold an asset at the deadline, and they’re the ones effectively losing the best prospect.

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Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez: Twin Trade Chips

The market has moved forward as we approach the trading deadline, but its shape is still difficult to make out, especially in terms of hitters. We have seen the mega-deal, with franchise cornerstone Troy Tulowitzki moving from the Colorado Rockies to the Toronto Blue Jays. We have seen the rental, with Ben Zobrist helping the already strong Kansas City Royals. There appear to be solid outfielders remaining on the market, including Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Gerardo Parra all available as rentals. Even so, it still looks to be a sellers’ market on the hitting side. The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies are in a decent position to move two hitters, neither of whom are rentals nor franchise cornerstones. Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez are remarkably similar players and both could provide a jolt of offense for a team needing help this season and in the future.

Both Bruce and Gonzalez were called up to majors in 2008, and while Gonzalez has played some center field, both are good-hitting corner outfielders. Both are left-handed hitters with platoon splits that make them just good enough to hit everyday. Both have contracts lasting potentially through 2017, with Bruce carrying a reasonable $13 million team option in 2017 after a $12.5 million salary in 2016 and Gonzalez owed $37 million over the next two years. In addition to being cheaper, Bruce is also slightly younger, at 28, compared to the 29-year-old Gonzalez. In Gonzalez’s favor is slightly better production over the course of their respective careers. Their career lines are below.

PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+ BsR OFF DEF WAR
Carlos Gonzalez 3471 .292 .349 .520 120 20 101 -14 20.5
Jay Bruce 4343 .252 .325 .468 111 9 62 -19 18.6

Even factoring in Coors Field, Gonzalez has been the better hitter than Bruce, who plays in a decent hitters’ park himself. The pair have both been adequate on defense while losing some overall value due to the negative positional adjustment produced by a corner-outfield spot. Gonzalez has been the better runner, as well, but Bruce has closed the gap in overall value by staying healthy and recording nearly 1,000 more plate appearances than Gonzalez. They have accumulated their WAR in a very similar manner, though, both breaking out in 2010 and having very good years in 2013 before experiencing major struggles last season. Their cumulative WAR chart below is remarkable for the singular progression between the two players.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Note: this edition of the Five contains new restrictions regarding eligibility for inclusion. Any player is excluded from eligibility whose name has appeared among the midseason prospect lists of Baseball America, Keith Law, or John Sickels.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) absent from the midseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Keith Law, and John Sickels, and also (c) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Projecting the Prospects the Angels Traded for Outfielders

Just one day after they acquired Shane Victorino to sure up their outfield, the Angels brought two more outfielders into the fold in separate deals. First, they acquired David Murphy from the Indians in exchange for infielder Eric Stamets. Minutes later, we learned they also acquired David DeJesus from the Rays for pitcher Eduar Lopez. Here’s the skinny on the prospects the Angels gave up to add these Davids into their outfield mix.

Eric Stamets

Stamets is a glove-first shortstop with very little power to speak of. He’s hit a weak .248/.306/.360 in Double-A this year, which is actually a modest improvement over his .235/.293/.314 showing from the same level last year. Stamets’ one strong suit is that he puts the ball in play quite often. His 10% strikeout rate is among the lowest at the Double-A level. The problem, though, is that those balls in play rarely result in good outcomes. His consistently low ISOs and BABIPs suggest he hits the ball without much authority.

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Baseball’s Antitrust Exemption: Its Uncertain Scope

This is the second installment in an occasional series examining baseball’s antitrust exemption. The first piece in the series looked at the historical evolution of the exemption, and in particular the U.S. Supreme Court’s evolving justification for baseball’s antitrust immunity. A future, final post will consider the practical impact that the exemption has had on Major League Baseball’s operations.

While many fans are aware that baseball is generally exempt from antitrust law, fewer realize that courts have adopted widely divergent views regarding the extent to which MLB’s operations are actually shielded from the law. For instance, just because MLB is generally immune from antitrust law does not mean that a court would necessarily give the league free reign to engage in anti-competitive practices in areas completely unrelated to professional baseball (such as if, for example, MLB Advanced Media — the league’s digital content distribution company — were to enter into a price-fixing scheme with other non-sports-related, Internet-streaming-video service providers).

Courts have traditionally disagreed regarding where to draw the line between MLB’s exempt and non-exempt conduct, and thus are deeply divided over the extent to which they will allow antitrust lawsuits to proceed against MLB. As a practical matter, then, anyone wishing to sue MLB under antitrust law may be able to do so – despite the league’s antitrust exemption – so long as they file their case in the right court.

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Wittenmyer: Dodgers Acquire Latos/Morse

The Dodgers were known to be in the market for starting pitching, and this morning, it looks like they’ve added an arm to their rotation.

Latos always seemed what likely to land with an analytically-inclined club, given his mediocre ERA but solid FIP/xFIP numbers, and his reputation for being a bit of an issue in the clubhouse, so perhaps we should have anticipated LA as a likely destination. What this means for the team’s reported pursuit of Cole Hamels remains to be seen, but the Dodgers probably shouldn’t stop trying to acquire another pitcher, given Brett Anderson’s health track record.

Morse being included in the deal doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective, given that the Dodgers already have a strong bench that includes a bunch of guys who are better than him, but keep in mind that the Dodgers have been aggressively using their financial resources to buy prospects, and I’d guess that this is just more of that trend continuing; rather than giving up talent to get Latos, perhaps the Dodgers convinced the Marlins to take a nothing return if LA took the remainder of Morse’s contract, which has $3 million left this year and $8 million next year.

In fact, Wittenmyer’s report makes it sound like the Dodgers are actually the ones potentially getting prospects here, with the “at least one competitive balance pick” comment. If the Dodgers are getting multiple picks back with Latos, then adding Morse’s salary might simply be the cost they were willing to pay to do so. And of course, the Marlins seem to be continually more interested in cost reductions than putting a good team on the field, so this would fit their M.O. perfectly.

We’ll have a full write-up of the deal when all the details of the deal are known.


Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/29/15

11:40
Dave Cameron: The trade deadline is two days away, and there’s obviously plenty to talk about. Get your questions in now, and we’ll start in 20 minutes or so.

12:04
Dave Cameron: Alright, we’re already one trade in today, and it sounds like a bunch more are coming. This is a crazy week.

12:04
Comment From marc
with the most recent dodgers trade, latos and morse, does that make Van Slyke more available? How would he fit with the PIrtaes?

12:05
Dave Cameron: I don’t think Morse ever plays for the Dodgers. They took his contract to not have to give up good prospects for Latos and the comp pick they bought. I bet they’ll DFA Morse straight away, then ship him to an AL team who wants a cheap DH, with LA still covering most of the costs.

12:06
Comment From Guest
is this all posturing from the tigers? they cant possibly think buying is smart when theres 5 teams ahead of them for the 2nd wild card

12:06
Dave Cameron: A week ago, I didn’t see why the Tigers should sell, but they’ve been garbage ever since, and now I’m on board. Break it up.

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Projecting Nick Pivetta, Philly’s Return for Papelbon

The floodgates are wide open, my friends. The latest trade to come down the pike is between the Phillies and the Nationals. This one has Jonathan Papelbon headed to the Washington Nationals in exchange for 22-year-old pitcher Nicholas Pivetta. Here’s what the data say about Mr. Pivetta and his future.

Pivetta holds a 3.02 ERA and 3.96 FIP through 101 innings this year, with most of those innings coming at the High-A level. The Nationals bumped Pivetta up to Double-A a couple of weeks ago, where he’s gotten shellacked in three starts. Both his ERA and FIP are north of 7.00 through 15 Double-A innings.

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