Dave Stewart’s Misguided Comments on Market Value

Over the weekend, the Diamondbacks made a pretty controversial trade, selling Touki Toussaint to the Braves in exchange for $10 million in salary relief. I wrote up my thoughts on the deal on Monday, noting that while it’s certainly possible that the Diamondbacks have more information about Toussaint than other teams, it still seems like they simply misread the market value of a prospect in making this deal.

If you didn’t think that’s what happened a few days ago, you can be sure of it now, because in Ken Rosenthal’s latest column, Stewart says some things that, for a baseball executive to say publicly in 2015, are absolutely remarkable. And should scare the crap out of Diamondback fans.

Per Rosenthal’s column, here’s the entire text of what Stewart said in regards to trading Toussaint.

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NERD Game Scores: War of the Actual Roses Curiosity Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Houston | 20:10 ET
Warren (77.0 IP, 111 xFIP-) vs. Keuchel (107.1 IP, 77 xFIP-)
A flawed algorithm constructed by the author indicates that this game is today’s most compelling one for much the same reason that other recent games have been designated as those other days’ most compelling ones — namely, because of how it features the Houston Astros. As a club, Houston possesses the fourth-highest odds of qualifying for the divisional series among all major-league clubs — this, despite also possessing the league’s youngest collection of batters. Famously, American boxer Muhammad Ali announced at a press conference that he was young, handsome, fast, pretty, and couldn’t possibly be beat. At least one — but probably also fewer than all — of those descriptive elements apply to the current incarnation of the Astros.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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Stephen Strasburg’s Return In Just a Few Pictures

Used to be, people would argue about whether Stephen Strasburg was really an ace. There was no right or wrong answer, since there is no consensus definition of an ace starting pitcher, but aside from that, where Strasburg was concerned, there was disagreement. Some people thought he was amazing; some people thought he was a letdown. Some people could squint and see both. That all concerns past Stephen Strasburg. There was no disagreement over 2015 Stephen Strasburg. That version sucked, and by some measures he was one of the very worst pitchers in baseball. It wasn’t like him, and after a start in late May, Strasburg hit the DL. He didn’t feel great. He also needed to work on his mechanics. The DL stint was a chance to work on both.

And a few days ago, Strasburg came off the DL and threw 94 pitches against the Braves. Many of them were pretty good pitches, and while this was a Braves lineup without Freddie Freeman in the middle of it, I’d still say it wasn’t easy for Strasburg to throw his five shutout innings. That was still a major-league opponent, so the outing was positive from start to finish. What sorts of things was Strasburg up to? We can make this easy, with just a few pictures. In some ways, Strasburg was his classic self. In some ways, he was completely different.

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How Badly Do the Royals Really Need a Starting Pitcher?

You remember how the last year went, and ended. It was devastating — not only because the Royals came so close, but because no one could be sure when the Royals would have another opportunity. The following season didn’t appear so bright; while the team could survive losing, say, Nori Aoki and Billy Butler, it would be tougher to lose James Shields. The guy the Royals signed to replace Shields was Edinson Volquez, which is to say the Royals didn’t really get around to replacing Shields at all. Preseason opinions of the team were mixed, but everyone agreed it would be a struggle to get back to the playoffs.

Now, almost halfway through, the Royals have the best record in the American League. Practically their entire lineup is in position to be voted into the All-Star Game, and only a few of those selections would be terrible ones. The team’s done well to shake off last year’s defeat, and with their eyes set ahead, the future will soon bring the exhibition, and the trade deadline. Like every team, the Royals could stand to be better. Like every team, the Royals could use another one or two arms. Without question, the starting rotation is far from a strength. But as the Royals gauge the market, it’s worth asking — how bad is their need for another starter, really?

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How the 2015 Rays Have Overcome

Last year’s Rays were, objectively, a disappointment. Forecast to do pretty well, the team ultimately lost more games than it won, finishing fourth in a surprising division. Beneath the surface numbers, though, there was something a little more positive — by BaseRuns, the Rays should’ve gone 83-79. Over the course of the year, the Rays underachieved what they arguably deserved, so the team was more competitive than it looked. But hey, 2014 was 2014. Those Rays traded David Price. They traded Ben Zobrist. They lost Joe Maddon. Early this year, the Rays lost Alex Cobb. They’ve been without Drew Smyly. They’ve been without Desmond Jennings. Last year, the Rays were borderline competitive, and they moved forward without the same talent.

And now they’re 41-32. They’re leading the East by a couple games, and the only bad team in that division has been the Red Sox. BaseRuns puts the Rays closer to 39-34, but that’s not a meaningful difference, the take-home message being, the Rays are fine. They’ve survived a massive talent loss, and if anything, now they’re playing better. Per usual, the Rays have had to overcome a number of obstacles in order to remain a relevant team. What, precisely, has taken place in Tampa Bay?

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2016 MLB Salary Obligations and the Plan in Arizona

Since Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart took over baseball operations for the Arizona Diamondbacks last year, their moves have come under considerable scrutiny. Questions have been raised about the Diamondbacks plan, but not with as much regard to its execution. The questions surrounding the Diamondbacks’ moves have been confusing enough that some wondered if the Diamondbacks had a plan in mind at all. The club looked to be attempting a quick rebuilding process. How they plan to achieve that goal is finally becoming a little more clear.

When the Cubs and Astros took bad teams and completely deconstructed their rosters, choosing to lose for a while and re-stock the organizations, their plans were easy to see. After a full offseason, multiple in-season trades, and the recent major-league draft, the Diamondbacks’ plan, or at least their goal, has come into focus. The Diamondbacks are not interested in a long, drawn out rebuilding process. Their main interests look to be cutting salary and adding players who are ready to contribute now or will be ready to contribute in the near future. They might not be ready to win now, but they appear to be attempting a swift rebuild to make the team competitive.

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College Team USA Loaded with Draft Talent as Usual

As dependably as Earth orbits the sun, so too does USA Baseball stack its Collegiate National Team with premium talents that later find themselves atop teams’ draft boards. Each summer, Team USA plays a few tune-up games against various teams from the summer collegiate Coastal Plain League before embarking on a multi-week schedule competing against Chinese Taipei, Cuba and other international squads. For major-league clubs, this summer tour and the Cape Cod League are the top destinations to scout the best college talent available in next year’s draft.

I’m going to compile a ranking of the top prospects on Team USA once its season is over, but having seen the first three games and the preceding batting practices/infields, I have enough notes to share in advance of a more comprehensive and penultimate post. Let’s do three hitters, three pitchers and a bonus round of 2017 guys. All of these players appeared in Kiley’s 2016/2017 draft rankings.

Corey Ray, CF, Louisville

Ray has been the most impressive position player over Team USA’s first three days, and if I was forced to rank all these guys now, he would slot in as my top hitting prospect and No. 2 overall behind Georgia RHP Robert Tyler. The quick-twitch center fielder has taken loud batting practices with a fluid, lefthanded stroke that produces above-average raw power and has shown a deliberate approach in games, using plus speed to set the Team USA single-game steals record with five in the first contest against the Holly Springs Salamanders of the CPL. He’s still developing instincts for his position, but his range, solid average arm and controlled aggression fit the center-field profile.

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JABO: Justin Turner Has Earned a Starting Job

Over the past 365 days, Paul Goldschmidt has been the best hitter in baseball, posting a .331/.458/.610 line that is good for an absurd 184 wRC+. Do you know who the second best hitter has been over the past year? It’s not Bryce Harper: He’s third, at 167. And Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are tied for fifth, each putting up a 161 wRC+ during that span. So who’s the mystery man who has put his name among this elite group of hitters?

Dodgers infielder Justin Turner. Yes, the same Justin Turner who began the year as LA’s second-string utility guy, as he wasn’t even the team’s top infield reserve. Despite a very strong 2014 season of part-time work, the Dodgers glut of infield talent put Turner behind not only the starting trio of Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and Juan Uribe, but also saw him slide in behind Alex Guerrero for playing time at third base. Turner didn’t get his first start of 2015 until April 22, the Dodgers 14th game of the year.

But just as he did a year ago — when he’s been placed in the line-up — Turner has done nothing but hit. In fact, while his 157 wRC+ a year ago looked like a total fluke — given that he’d put up marks of 96, 98 and 99 the the three years prior — he’s actually hitting even better this season, cutting his strikeout rate while also hitting the ball in the air more frequently and with more authority, leading to a 169 wRC+ in the first few months of 2015.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Turner’s breakout, of course. He didn’t have his first above-average hitting season as a big leaguer until last year — when he was 29 — and even dating back to the beginning of 2014, Turner has only hit 503 times, less than most players get in a full season. Most of Turner’s track record suggests that he’s not really a great hitter, but a guy with good contact skills and some power who is on the hot streak to end all hot streaks. It’s also somewhat telling that the Dodgers watched him destroy opposing pitchers last year, but still weren’t interested in expanding his role for 2015, then also went out and spent $63 million to sign infielder Hector Olivera this spring.

But while there are plenty of reasons to not believe in Turner’s breakout, it’s not like this career arc is entirely without precedent. For some historical context, here are five recent hitters who were, like Turner, essentially useless at the big league level through age-28, then turned into quality big leaguers later in their career.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/24/15

11:40
Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. The queue is now open, and we’ll start around noon.

12:00
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this thing going.

12:00
Comment From Eminor3rd
Do you think the Sox actually WILL shop Sale?

12:01
Dave Cameron: No. Teams are extremely reluctant to trade their franchise players these days, even if it could make their team better. It’s risk aversion, mostly. I don’t think Sale or Abreu or going anywhere. I could maybe see them moving Quintana.

12:02
Comment From Sully
Why did anyone ever think Joe Kelly has value as a starting pitcher?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Because he’s thrown 392 innings as a big league starter and has a 3.92 ERA, 4.19 FIP, and 4.20 xFIP. The idea that he’s not a capable big league starter is an overreaction to a few bad months.

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Drew Storen Finds His Strikeouts

A little over a month ago, I wandered into the depths of the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards, looking to see who had the most increased movement on their breaking pitches through the first month of the season compared to last year. As you might imagine, increased movement doesn’t always mean increased success, and so many of the names that turned up were interesting but inconclusive: seeing names like Rick Porcello and Ross Detwiler leading best-of lists tells us that the article was a fun exercise, if not a totally meaningful one.

However, there were a couple of interesting names when it came to right-handed pitchers with increased horizontal movement on their sliders. First, there was Sonny Gray, who is now the proud owner of a top-three slider by run value this year. Then, coming in a close third after Seth Maness, was Drew Storen. Unlike Gray and Maness, Storen has been around for a while, so the prospect of him tinkering with pitches (especially after four mostly successful years), drew some attention.

That attention was, and is, warranted: Storen’s slider (PITCHf/x calls it a slider; some say it’s a cutter. For ease, we’ll go with slider) now has over two inches of greater horizontal movement than last season, and at least one inch more than his previous career-high. Take a look at the horizontal movement change of his slider over his career, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Storen_Slider_Movement

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