Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/24/15

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. The queue is now open, and we’ll start around noon.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this thing going.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Do you think the Sox actually WILL shop Sale?

Dave Cameron: No. Teams are extremely reluctant to trade their franchise players these days, even if it could make their team better. It’s risk aversion, mostly. I don’t think Sale or Abreu or going anywhere. I could maybe see them moving Quintana.

Comment From Sully
Why did anyone ever think Joe Kelly has value as a starting pitcher?

Dave Cameron: Because he’s thrown 392 innings as a big league starter and has a 3.92 ERA, 4.19 FIP, and 4.20 xFIP. The idea that he’s not a capable big league starter is an overreaction to a few bad months.

Comment From Gage
What do you think the Dodgers should do before the deadline?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably trade for at least one and maybe two solid middle-of-the-rotation starter types. Maybe Samardzija and Leake, or something like that.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Which contender do you think actually SHOULD give up what it would take to get Sale. For example, if you were the Dodgers, would you be willing to part with a package that starts with Urias or Seager?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Dodgers actually need another ace. In terms of which team should probably be motivated to most overpay for Sale, maybe Toronto. Their window to win is only getting smaller, and he would have a dramatic impact on their postseason chances.

Comment From Dude
According to wRC+ and WAR, Pujols is having his best year since 2010. One would think he’ll come down to earth eventually, but one thing that strikes me is that his BABIP is only .232 – the lowest of his career. Could that mean he might actually improve, or at least see his batting average go up? Is a year-end line of .290/.350/.570 with 40 HR possible?

Dave Cameron: He’s morphed into a low-BABIP guy, and some of his current low number is a result of more of his hard hit balls going over the wall and not getting counted in the BIP denominator. He’ll probably bounce up towards .260 or so, but that will be offset by his HR/FB going down.

Comment From Chris
Thoughts on the Pirates and Mets hitting situation moving forward? Both teams have bats in the minors (Conforto/Josh Bell) who are seemingly polished and also have plenty of pitching assets to make moves. Wouldn’t either move (callup/trade) be a rather large difference over Cuddyer/Alvarez for the ROS?

Dave Cameron: There’s no reason to think either Conforto or Bell are ready to be significantly positive contributors in the big leagues right now.

Comment From Dude
Bryce Harper keeps partying like its 1999 – he’s not slowing down, and we’re almost in July. Do you think his 90s-esque batting line is sustainable?

Dave Cameron: This is Ruth-in-his-prime stuff, so the reasonable answer is no. But he’s a special hitter, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the year with a wRC+ over 200

Comment From joe
cueto pushed back again… how much trade value is he losing/will continue to lose before he is dealt?

Dave Cameron: This definitely isn’t going to help. He’s had these intermittent arm problems before and has been able to pitch through them, but this is adding a lot of risk to the proposition, and I’d imagine teams are starting to think about alternatives already. He’ll still bring a good return, but definitely less than he would have a month ago.

Comment From Sven
Hi Dave! What are your thoughts on Dylan Bundy? do you see him as a true ace? Seemed like he was doing really well in the minors this year until his minor setback recently.

Dave Cameron: I doubt Dylan Bundy has any significant major league career.

Comment From Dude
What’s more likely: Jered Weaver rediscovers his fastball or Bernie Sanders becomes president?

Dave Cameron: Jared Weaver is elected president.

Comment From Sven
Machado or Bryant…who do you take for the next ten years?

Dave Cameron: Bryant.

Comment From BDF
Not a White Sox fan, but I thought your post this morning was insane. Aside from the fact that trading 3 really great pieces for six potential pieces is dubious (although there’s a rational quantitative argument), fans just don’t want to see a horrible team with no stars, even if mean a lower chance of winning the World Series over the next 12 years. The team I’m a fan of (they rhyme with “Billy’s”) is horrendous … and I still don’t want them to trade our star pitcher. I’m going to watch them. I want to want to watch them. Both become much more difficult if they’re, you know, ess.

Dave Cameron: And this is why organizations aren’t run by fans.

Comment From Kevin
Do the Cubs really plan on Schwarber being a Catcher? Why not throw him in left right now and let him just hit?

Dave Cameron: Well, Chris Coghlan is actually having a pretty decent year, for one.

Comment From DCH
I thought league average wRC+ was 100. But looking at historical data on your site, you find that the highest ever league wRC+ was 99, achieved four times in the 1870s. http://www.fangraphs.com/le… average league average wRC+ seems to be somewhere in the mid-90s. This season, league wRC+ is 96. So is wRC+ not scaled to *actual* league average? Or what am I missing?

Dave Cameron: League average wRC+ is 100, for hitters. The league totals you’re looking at include pitcher hitting, which isn’t included in the totals, since no one ever wants to know how much better a hitter a position player is relative to a pitcher. Click on the NP (non-pitchers) tab and you’ll see it’s 100 for every year.

Comment From Brett W
FG Playoff Odds doesn’t love the Giants. Do you see them as a Wild Card team? Why/why not?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re a step behind PIT/CHC. They’re in the mix though.

Comment From Xolo
Buster Olney just posted an article said that the Padres should trade Upton, Kimbrel and Shields and try to regroup but aren’t they stuck on the path they’ve chosen? Is anyone really going to take on the $60M Shields has left and give San Diego a prospect worth a damn?

Dave Cameron: You won’t get a great talent in return, but you also won’t be on the hook for a declining pitcher who you don’t need while you’re rebuilding. The Padres screwed up; the sooner they admit that, the better.

Comment From Sean D
This Dodgers offense has tanked lately, when will Olivera get the call and what kind of production should be expected?

Dave Cameron: You know who doesn’t need to be replaced in the Dodgers lineup? Justin Turner. There’s nowhere for Olivera to play.

Comment From C.J.
Is it crazy to think Correa could outperform Tulo (well, all shortstops) for the rest of the year?

Dave Cameron: Could? Anything is possible. But 95 times out of 100, Tulo will significantly outperform Correa the rest of the year. At least, when he’s healthy.

Comment From John
Any chance JP Crawford gets to the majors this year? What do you think his ceiling is?

Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t be surprised if he got a September call-up. He looks like a future star.

Comment From Doug
Fill in the blank: The Pirates should seek to buy/trade for ___________.

Dave Cameron: A first baseman and another good reliever.

Comment From Bob Your Uncle
Any inkling on who grabs the closer gig in Toronto?

Dave Cameron: Osuna’s their best reliever.

Comment From Forsyth
Mookie now has a 4.3 WAR in his first 121 games. Bogaerts this year has a 1.7 WAR (on pace for about a 3.8-4.0 win season). So, perhaps the Sox prospects aren’t overrated and there is just an adjustment period? Call me crazy….

Dave Cameron: Mookie didn’t even really have an adjustment period; he ran a .250 BABIP for a few months and people who were embarrassingly wrong on him tried to call scoreboard. They’re being quiet again.

Comment From Ryan
Mookie Betts, Brian Johnson and Manuel Margot for Abreu and Robertson, who says no?

Dave Cameron: Red Sox would have no interest.

Comment From Dave
A few chats ago you said the Dodgers would win the west by 10+ games. Still confident in that prediction?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Norm
What are the chances Amaro screws this up and Papelbon does not end up being traded?

Dave Cameron: Slim. There are enough teams out there interested that they’ll move him.

Comment From hscer
Encouraged by the Strasburg start?

Dave Cameron: His velo was back up to the 96 range, which is encouraging.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Could you see Samardzija heading to the Cubs in a trade this summer?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. Cubs probably aren’t going to give up a lot for a rental who wouldn’t even participate in a Wild Card game.

Comment From Yack
Which player is most likely to bring back a stupid return at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Aroldis Chapman. Everyone wants bullpen help, and he’s about as good as it gets.

Comment From Mr. Jones
What are you going to do with your mutual funds when our debt-based monetary system collapses under its own weight? Think I’ll stick to buying physical gold and silver.

Dave Cameron: Because you know what people really want when the economy collapses and everyone is starving? Big heavy metal with no practical use. If you actually believe the economy is on the brink of total destruction, invest in guns, food, and get yourself a private source of clean drinking water. If you have those things when an apocalypse occurs, you’ll rule your little neighborhood. Of course, you have to hope that some other prepper in your area didn’t buy a bigger gun…

Comment From Joe
Why do teams need to scout known commodities? It would seem like teams should already know what they might be getting in a player such as Ben Zobrist with a long track record.

Dave Cameron: Health, mostly.

Dave Cameron: They want to see how well he’s moving or whether there are physical signs he might be playing through an injury.

Comment From Ari
After the Cespedes trade, the A’s really lost their identity and fell apart. How can they find it again?

Dave Cameron: By BaseRuns, they have the third best expected record in baseball. Unless you think Yoenis Cespedes caused their bullpen metldown this year, this is a silly opinion to hold.

Comment From Ms Fan in Phoenix
What should I be thinking about Mr. Cano in Seattle? One could expect him to drop off as this contract went on, but being the 7-8th best hitter in the Mariners lineup is a bit more of a drop off than expected this quickly. Can I have hope that he will trend toward his career numbers?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s not this bad. It’s a slump. It happens. He’s on the downside of his career, and you shouldn’t expect any more 140 wRC+ seasons, but he’ll be above average for the next few years.

Comment From Bret
Curious as to why you view Toronto’s window as getting smaller. I think the makeup of the team is changing – Bautista and Edwin will most likely be gone after 2016, and obviously Jose Reyes is in decline – but they have a lot of interesting young pitching (Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez and Norris, if you like them, form a nice cheap rotation core in ’16 and beyond) and they should have a lot of money to spend. Obviously, not opposed to a move for Sale though!

Dave Cameron: Young pitching is fool’s gold. Out of those four, you should be happy if two turn into anything reliable long-term, and only hitting on one of them would be totally normal.

Comment From MotorboatJones
What pitcher is the best fit for the Cubs, either via trade or FA next year?

Dave Cameron: David Price, next winter.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
but would conforto be less negative than cuddyer? at this point i find it hard to believe that conforto couldnt out perform CUddyer ROS even if slightly overmatched at the plate

Dave Cameron: You’re putting too much weight on 2015 data.

Comment From Phil
Jays have to trade for a closer. No contending team would feel secure going into the post season with a 20 year old rookie closer, right?

Dave Cameron: They have bigger problems.

Comment From Bridgeport Joe
To get Sale, the Dodgers would have to do Pederson, Urias, Holmes, one of De Leon and Anderson, and take Cabrera and LaRoche back.

Dave Cameron: And we found the White Sox fan.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Baez, Alcantara and C.J. Edwards for Hamels. Who hangs up?

Dave Cameron: Depends how much money the Phillies are picking up.

Comment From Ross G
Assuming this performance continues, would the Orioles be wise to give Machado a 8/200 million (not including arb years)?

Dave Cameron: He’s a tough one, because he’s obviously got superstar ability, but there are serious health risks there too. I don’t know that I’d be in a huge hurry to lock him up unless he wanted to give a discount.

Comment From Josh G
When a pitcher throws a pitch that is within the strike zone but is called a ball by the ump, how is that dealt with in Zone%? Does zone% ignore human error and strictly go by the “true zone?”

Dave Cameron: Yep, it’s just based on location, not call.

Comment From rustydude
Why aren’t more pitchers experimenting with the jump forward pitch delivery that Carter Capps is using?

Dave Cameron: Because it’s probably very hard to learn how to do that and maintain a consistent arm slot. Eno wrote about this a while back, and it seemed like there was a potential loss of command for guys who do this.

Comment From Bridgeport Joe
One slight correction to your Hot Sports Take re: trading Sale. The 2018 and 2019 years are team options. So if he gets hurt in the next 2.5 years, they can opt out. Meaning that you’re actually understating how team-friendly his contract is.

Dave Cameron: I ranked him as something like the 7th or 8th most valuable trade chip in baseball last year. Trust me, i know how valuable Sale is, and I know those last few years are team options.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Enjoyed the Justin Turner article. Do you think he may be a legit reverse platoon split guy? 487 Career PA vs. LH: .255/.324/.358; 943 career PA vs. RH: .302/.364/.447

Dave Cameron: Reverse platoon splits for hitters are basically not sustainable in any scenario.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
remember when Golden Boy Alderson let Justin Turner walk for nothing because they didn’t like his attitude?

Dave Cameron: Well he was also a replacement level scrub in NY, so there’s that.

Comment From Dude
I agree that the Padres screwed up, but they’re 4.5 games out of first place with 87 games to play. Cashing in their chips would be a slap in the face to their fan base.

Dave Cameron: They’ll be further out in a month.

Comment From Tom
Before the season started, the Nationals and the Dodgers were the consensus best of the NL with the Cardinals a step behind. How are the Cardinals so far ahead of the pack, even with all of their injuries?

Dave Cameron: They’re outperforming their BaseRuns by six wins.

Comment From Joe
With all the rumors of the Cubs trading Castro, what would they be looking to get in return? Are they really prepared to give SS to Baez before he proves himself in the bigs?

Dave Cameron: If they traded Castro, Russell would move back to SS. But I don’t see them trading pieces off their big league roster in-season.

Comment From Oren
This has been a topic of debate in Toronto: If the Jays only have the resources to upgrade one area, should it be the rotation or the bullpen?

Dave Cameron: Rotation.

Comment From Raindog
A week ago Beltre and his thumb were unable to even grip a bat. Yesterday he’s playing. Break it down: what percent “Beltre is a physical wonder who heals like magic” and what percent “this is a bad idea for a guy who’s not healthy”?

Dave Cameron: 20/80.

Comment From Catoblepas
What team is most likely to both finish below .500 this year and make the playoffs (not WC) next year?

Dave Cameron: Mets, maybe? Nationals going to lose a lot of pieces this winter, and the NL East is garbage, so they wouldn’t even have to be great to potentially be a division contender.

Comment From kid
Why are you down on Maikel Franco? He’s got that 5% walk, 15% strikeout profile with the high contact and high power. Adam Jones, Arenado and Beltre have made that work, to name a few.

Dave Cameron: And Delmon Young, Tony Batista, and plenty of others have failed with. It’s a very high-risk profile. It can work, but given that he’s not a good defender, the power has to be there for him to be a top tier player. If he turns into a .180 ISO guy instead of a .250 ISO guy, he’s below average.

Comment From Guest
Does a Steve Pearce trade to the Cardinals make sense?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if STL went after a guy like Pearce.

Comment From rhayex
How badly are the Reds screwing the pooch right now? Chapman’s trade value has got to be down due to issues with his command, Leake has been lit up (although he’s been better recently), and teams have to be concerned about Cueto’s health at this point. Besides Frazier (who I predict they don’t trade regardless of the offer), the Reds trade assets have dropped in value fairly significantly.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Chapman/Leake have lost much value, if any. Cueto’s the only one who has taken a hit, and he has time to get it back. But they’re definitely playing with fire.

Comment From Raindog
Can the A’s get someone more valuable than a compensatory pick for two months of Kazmir?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, but they’re also starting to play well the last few weeks, and the better predictive numbers suggest this is still a good team. I wouldn’t assume they’re going to move him just yet.

Comment From Joe
Who do you start in a Cubs wild card game today? Do you trust the stronger season performances by Arrieta and Hammel or the stronger career by Lester?

Dave Cameron: Depends on who I’m facing. Lean towards Lester, but if it’s a RH heavy time, I might go Arrieta. Zero chance I go Hammel.

Comment From Josh I
Is there a suitor that would take most of Billy Butler’s contract?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. He’s just not very good. That’s a move I don’t think I’ll ever understand.

Comment From primantis
Why isn’t Preller getting more heat? The Kimbrel move looked dumb at the time and he has underperformed. Kemp looks like a complete disaster. Grandal is cheap and raking.

Dave Cameron: He had a terrible off-season, but it was his first one. No one is going to fire a new GM after one year.

Comment From Dave
Back to the Dodgers… what makes you so confident? Can this roster as is, win the division by 10 games, or are you assuming they will achieve that with some trades?

Dave Cameron: Both. This is a very good team that will get even better in July.

Comment From Alex
Dave, enjoyed the Turner piece. I know you said that Turner has earned a starting job, but how legitimate do you think his breakout is? Do you think he can sustain this level of production over hte rest of the season?

Dave Cameron: No, he’s not going to keep this up, but he doesn’t have to; even if he’s just a 115-120 wRC+ guy, that’s still easily worth starting.

Comment From Andrew
Does Alex Guerrero’s contract really keep him from being moved? I know he can become a free agent after he’s been traded but he’s set to make 15 million over the next 2 years and he hasn’t really shown that he’s worth more than that. The only reason teams should be scared of his contract is if they think he’s gonna break out and have an amazing year. Seems like the dodgers should be able to sell him as part of a package as a decent bat to a team with the chance to compete this year.

Dave Cameron: If he’s good after you trade for him, he’s a free agent and you probably lose him. If he’s bad after trade for him, then you wish you wouldn’t have traded for him. Lose-lose.

Comment From Matt
How many players move from the hardest position(SS) to one of the “easiest”(LF) and put up career worst defensive numbers like Hanley? Any off the top of your head?

Dave Cameron: No, I think this is mostly unprecedented.

Comment From MSW
It was obvious this would be the case when the deal was announced, but the Cuddyer signing is the worst deal off the offseason, right?

Dave Cameron: Kemp for Grandal and stuff isn’t just the worst trade of the last winter; it’s the worst trade since Bedard for Adam Jones and stuff.

Comment From The Big Dipper
We’re 2.5 months into the season. Isn’t the most recent data more reliable than previous data, especially when a player is as far along the aging curve as Cuddyer?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Dave Cameron: You add the most recent data to the overall picture and adjust, but you don’t ignore past data.

Comment From Brian
Phillies pick up half in the Baez, Alcantara, Edwards trade?

Dave Cameron: If they’re picking up half the contract, they can do better.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Speaking of Machado Dave. Didn’t he come up as a shortstop? Is there any thought he moves back there to replace Hardy? You mentioned health issues with him. Would the health issues keep him at 3B?

Dave Cameron: Two knee surgeries by age-22. I don’t think he ever plays SS again.

Comment From Nobody Impotant
Who has a bigger resurgence in the second half, Kemp or Cano?

Dave Cameron: Cano, easily.

Comment From thatoneguy
If you were in the Phillies spot, would you prefer to eat a lot of the Hamels contract in a trade in order to obtain a very strong prospect return, or would you eat little money for a lesser return but use that money for future rebuilding moves? Or is it just dependent on the buyer?

Dave Cameron: I’d prefer to get more talent back and eat the money, but you take the best deal you can get; you don’t eat $50 million to get a $10 million talent upgrade.

Comment From lunch
if young pitching is fool’s gold, you must not be a fan of the braves’ plan to get every young pitcher who is breathing and has at least one arm, right?

Dave Cameron: I’d rather build around bats, but they’ve done a pretty good job of getting value in most of their deals.

Comment From Dave
What do you think is the most undervalued skill in baseball right now?

Dave Cameron: Throwing a plus change-up.

Comment From TB
Is there a ‘secret’ for outperforming BaseRuns? Can we extrapolate anything from the Cardinals and A’s, given their bullpens, or their run-scoring environments, or rotations, or fielding performance, or anything else? I don’t mean literally extrapolating from 70-some games of two teams, but I think you know what I mean.

Dave Cameron: Nope. The only real way to beat your BaseRuns expectation is to constantly cluster your hits together, to strand all your opponents runners, or to perform exceptionally well in high leverage situations. There just isn’t a meaningful difference between players abilities to do these things, so over large samples, everyone comes out mostly the same.

Comment From Sean
I’ve asked a few of the online scouts and the consensus on Goldschmidt was that the industry missed “how hard he works” and “how good he is at making adjustments.” Are you able to clarify on those statements? It blows my mind that so many people missed out the best hitter over the last two years (though, Harper slightly better this year).

Dave Cameron: The hit tool is the most difficult tool to scout, by a lot. It’s just very hard to figure out how good of a hitter a guy is going to be by watching him swing the bat. This is where data > eyes.

Comment From Warrior
Dave, I put about$750 per month into a whole life policy (a bad decision from 2006, but whatever, it isn’t the worst investment, just not optimal) and have a monthly mortgage payment of about $2700. Combined, that represents about 55% of my average monthly net income. Does that represent enough investment in long-term savings (albeit illiquid savings)?

Dave Cameron: You don’t want to consider your mortgage payment “savings”. A huge chunk of that is interest, taxes, and insurance, and assuming you’re in the early part of a 30 year loan, you’re probably only “saving” a few hundred dollars per month in paid-down principal. And a lot of that will get eaten up by realtor commissions when you sell.

Dave Cameron: Savings consists of enough cash in the bank to not live paycheck to paycheck, a significant emergency fund for if you lose your job or have a medical problem, and retirement plans (401k/IRA, and your whole life plan can fall in here even though it’s not a great one). It’s better to view housing as an expense rather than a savings vehicle.

Comment From Ben
Aaron Sanchez for Javier Baez who says no?

Dave Cameron: I’m low on Aaron Sanchez. I don’t know why the Cubs would want him.

Comment From ManielDurphy
OK, Arrieta is better than Hammel, but zero chance implies he isn’t in the conversation, when in fact Hammel have been very good.

Dave Cameron: Has been very good is not the same thing as will be as good going forward.

Comment From Dan
Why do you say the Bucs need relief help? What they have is pretty good now and the cost to add someone better doesn’t seem like it would be worth it. I’d rather see them spend their energy and resources on first base help.

Dave Cameron: Watson has been worked very hard this year. They need another good setup guy to make sure he doesn’t break down in September.

Comment From Reminder
I think you’re forgetting Vernon Wells and his massive contract for Mike Napoli as worst trade of the last few years.

Dave Cameron: Kemp for Grandal was the exact same trade, essentially. Highly overrated and overpaid OF for an underrated slugging C.

Comment From Jimmy Johns
Is it pretty much a guarantee that the Cubs will be trading for an Ace this year? Hamels, Cueto? Or wait until next year? Price?

Dave Cameron: When you’re likely heading towards a WC game and already have Lester/Arrieta, the marginal upgrade of adding an “ace” isn’t that high. They should focus on getting a guy who can play in that game without displacing one of their best players.

Comment From Shawn
More shocking: Estrada is perfect through 4, Karns has a no hitter against the Jays through 4.2, or that it is happening in the same game?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to guess there’s a big strike zone today?

Comment From Jordan
In the comments of the Sox article it seemed like most people thought the Cubs package you suggested for Sale was way too low which was my initial reaction too, although I’m sure you developed it based on a reasonable surplus value calculation. Do you think that most fans are overrating the value of an ace type of pitcher like Sale, or is it just underestimating the surplus value of legit prospects?

Dave Cameron: The general public’s reaction to nearly every star-for-young players trade has been “WTF? how did he only go for that??????” At some point, people will have to realize they’re vastly overrating the trade value of star players.

Comment From Guest
Would you consider a house purchase with a 50% down payment and a 15 year morgage ‘savings’?

Dave Cameron: No. Your housing is an expense.

Dave Cameron: You’re likely to get a worse ROI on that house than you would if you took that 50% down payment and invested it. You won’t get back zero, but it’s still costing you something to buy the home versus

Dave Cameron: putting it into an actual savings vehicle.

Comment From Ryan
Curious on the Kemp/Cano comparison. Cano has been below average all season while Kemp has at least show flashes of his old self (134 wRC+ before May). What leads you to believe Kemp is done for good and Cano isn’t?

Dave Cameron: Don’t evaluate players by their in-season performance only.

Comment From CB
Why do you say Hammel won’t be good going forward? His success this year seems very much backed up by his peripherals. This isn’t a case of a guy having a lucky year.

Dave Cameron: Things like FIP and xFIP aren’t perfect estimators of true talent level either. You can be overperforming even while posting very good BB/K/HR/GB numbers.

Comment From Robert
RE: Goldschmidt. His first full year in the majors he was average vs RHP and a monster vs LHP. Looked much like the reports said

Dave Cameron: Except there’s basically no evidence that platoon splits are predcitive.

Dave Cameron: (For hitters)

Comment From Ajay
But you didn’t have an emergency chat for the Kemp/Grandal trade like you did for the Napoli/Wells one.

Dave Cameron: I didn’t have a kid then.

Comment From Jimmy Johns
I am putting away 9% of every paycheck into the my Roth 401k because my employer matches 6%. That totals 15%. I am currently 26yo and I have a 11,000 Car loan for 4yr. Should I take that 9% of every paycheck and instead of it going toward retirement, start applying it toward that loan to get my car paid off sooner?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the interest rate on the loan. If you’re under 5% (which you should be if you have decent credit), then I’d keep saving, probably. If you’re in the 5-6% range, it’s probably a toss-up. If you’re over 6%, get rid of the debt.

Comment From Warrior
Do you think parents’ desire to have their kids in a good school district blurs that distinction between housing as an expense and as savings? After all, savings are an investment for future benefit, as is education.

Dave Cameron: Sure, “your house is an expense and not savings” is a pretty broad generalization, and life is more complicated than that. But in general, you’re probably better off viewing it as an expense.

Comment From Bobob
A little confused on your evaluations of Kemp/Hammel. You say don’t judge guys based on their surface stats, and that peripheral numbers don’t tell the whole story. Okay… so what exactly are you basing your poor evaluations of these two off then? Gut feelings? How is that any more predictive?

Dave Cameron: Multi-year projections including past performance, aging curves, injury history. You can find two very good projection systems here on the site. Use those.

Comment From Michael
Platoon splits for hitters are predictive, you just have to regress them to the mean a lot more heavily than pretty much any other stat. But if you’ve got some 2000 PAs or more of data you definitely know something.

Dave Cameron: And by the time you have 2,000 PAs, almost everyone’s platoon split is within the same range.

Dave Cameron: There are variances, sure, but they’re far smaller than most people think.

Comment From Brian
keep contributing at least 6% though unless the car loan is at a usery rate. Gotta get that employer match.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s free money. Never go below that.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out today.