FanGraphs Baseball

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/24/15

5:47
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! We’re baaaaaack. Join Jeff and myself tonight at 9 pm ET and we can talk some baseball. Or we can talk about The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2016, on sale now! Or whatever else you want to talk about.

9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everyone, let’s get started. It’s good to be back.

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Good evening everyone.

9:01
Comment From Scott
Does Neil Walker get traded?

9:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I don’t see the rush

9:03
Paul Swydan: I think they’re in a tough spot with Walker. They can’t afford to trade him for prospects. If they deal him, they’ll have to get a major league ready piece back. And that may be tough to procure.

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Job Postings: Cincinnati Reds Manager of Baseball Analytics, Baseball Operations Analyst

Just to be clear, there are two job postings here.

Position: Cincinnati Reds Manager of Baseball Analytics

Location: Cincinnati

Description:

The Cincinnati Reds are seeking a Manager for the team’s Baseball Analytics department. The Manager of Baseball Analytics will work closely with the Senior Director of Baseball Analytics and Manager of Baseball Systems to implement the department’s research and development efforts and statistical models within new and existing applications. We envision the person in this position to play a major role in the creation of new baseball analytics concepts with the ultimate goal of enhancing on-field performance.

Responsibilities:

  • Work with our Analytics staff to integrate new statistical analyses, models and data visualizations into existing and new applications.
  • Design stored procedures and views for baseball operations database systems using Microsoft SQL Server.
  • Work closely with front office, coaching and scouting personnel in the compilation, analysis and visual representation of baseball information, including professional, amateur and advance scouting, player development and in-game strategy.
  • Conduct research related to baseball strategy, player evaluation and sports science by performing ad-hoc database queries and analysis.
  • Assist Director in prioritizing the implementation of new initiatives and continued evolution of existing applications by identifying present and future needs of Baseball Operations staff.
  • Serve as project manager for all Baseball Operations analytics projects.
  • Ensure that Baseball Operations staff is fully informed of statistical and technological research related to the game and identify new trends.

Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree in computational field, such as Statistics, Mathematics, Engineering, Quantitative Social Sciences or Analytics strongly preferred.
  • Experience with Major League front office, sabermetric website or related work.
  • Ability to design and implement complex database structures using SQL Server tools.
  • Strong understanding of typical baseball data structures, plus knowledge of current baseball research and traditional baseball statistics and strategy.
  • Working familiarity with advanced mathematical and statistical concepts, including experience implementing statistical models, simulations, derivations, and graphical representations into software applications.
  • Experience with Javascript, R, Python, Perl, and/or other languages a plus.
  • Experience with statistical software, programming languages and/or machine learning techniques is strongly preferred.
  • Ability to communicate effectively with all aspects of Baseball Operations, Scouting and Player Development staffs, and understand their job functions and subsequent software needs.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

…

Position: Cincinnati Reds Baseball Operations Analyst

Location: Cincinnati

Description:

The Cincinnati Reds are seeking an Analyst for the team’s Baseball Analytics department. The Analyst will work closely with the Senior Director of Baseball Analytics to enhance the department’s research and development efforts with respect to statistical models and applications.

Responsibilities:

  • Create and enhance predictive models by integrating data from all available sources, including advanced statistical feeds.
  • Work closely with the Director and Major League coaching staff to identify trends gleaned from statistical data feeds and develop systems to automate these processes.
  • Work closely with front office, coaching and scouting personnel in the compilation, analysis and visual representation of baseball information, including professional, amateur and advance scouting, player development and in-game strategy.
  • Conduct research related to baseball strategy, player evaluation and sports science by performing ad-hoc database queries and analysis.
  • Ensure that Baseball Operations staff is fully informed of statistical and technological research related to the game and identify new trends.

Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree in computational field, such as Statistics, Mathematics, Engineering, Quantitative Social Sciences or Analytics strongly preferred.
  • Experience with Major League front office, sabermetric website or related work a plus.
  • Proficiency with SQL and relational databases, using SQL Server tools.
  • Strong understanding of typical baseball data structures, plus knowledge of current baseball research and traditional baseball statistics and strategy.
  • Working familiarity with advanced mathematical and statistical concepts.
  • Experience with R, Python, Perl, and/or other languages a plus.
  • Experience with statistical software, programming languages and/or machine learning techniques is strongly preferred.
  • Advanced knowledge of Microsoft Excel, Access and Visual Basic for Applications.
  • Strong analytical, problem-solving skills, interpersonal and communication skills.
  • Ability to communicate effectively with all aspects of Baseball Operations, Scouting and Player Development staffs.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.


The Season’s Biggest Upset

Before every game, we publish estimated game odds. The odds consider the identities of the starting pitchers, and as the first pitch draws closer, the odds update to factor in the actual starting lineups. I’m not saying it’s an infallible system or anything, but it’s a neat little feature we have, even if it doesn’t get all that much use. And though this is by no means a rigorous test, consider the top 100 most seemingly lopsided games from the season past. Based on the calculated odds, the favorites in those games should’ve won 70 times. The favorites actually won 71 times. So things check out.

The favorite won the game with the single most lopsided odds. Max Scherzer and the Nationals were projected to have 78% odds against Sean O’Sullivan and the Phillies. The favorite also won the next-most lopsided game, and the next-most lopsided game, and the next-most lopsided game, and the next-most lopsided game. The five games with the most imbalanced odds all went to the team expected to win. We find our first upset in sixth. Which would then qualify this as the season’s greatest upset, taking into consideration only pre-game odds. It was an upset when the Royals rallied past the Astros in the playoffs, but that wasn’t a lopsided game at the start. It only became that way later. The biggest upset, considering pre-game outlook? We rewind to June 17, and we go to Los Angeles.

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Job Posting: Texas Rangers Baseball Operations Intern

Position: Texas Rangers Baseball Operations Intern

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
Interns assist in the day to day operation of the Baseball Operations department. Duties will include some of the following (depending on background): compiling and maintaining data, writing reports, developing visualizations, SQL queries, player evaluations, independent research. We’re looking for unique profiles and perspectives – how can your strengths complement our organization?

Possible Profiles/Majors/Backgrounds:

  • Scouting
  • Applied mathematics, statistics
  • Engineering, computer science/software development
  • Psychology
  • Physics
  • Kinesiology
  • Economics, business management
  • You tell us – how can your specialty contribute?

Qualifications:

  • Must be an excellent communicator.
  • Must relocate to the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
  • Passion for baseball.
  • Must be very organized.
  • Must be willing to work long hours, weekends and holidays.

Compensation:
This position is compensated. An in-person interview is preferred.

To Apply:
Please email resumes and cover letters along with links to any baseball research, blog posts, software or other projects here.


FanGraphs Audio: Jeff Sullivan’s Monthly Appearance

Episode 611
Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at FanGraphs. He’s also the periodic guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 23 min play time.)

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01:22:45

Seeking Clarity on Gerardo Parra’s Defense

Gerardo Parra’s out there right now as a free agent and soon, a team will sign him to play somewhere in the outfield. Plenty of teams have been linked to Parra, and understandably so. He’s entering just his age-29 season, he’s something like a league average hitter who started to lift the ball to the pull field and hit for some power last year, he’s played all three outfield positions in the past and, at times, he’s played them exceptionally well! He won’t kill you on the bases, and he should come reasonably cheap, especially considering his lack of draft pick compensation. Most everyone can afford Parra, and most everyone would have a spot for him on a roster.

The first team to emerge as a potential landing spot for Parra were the Nationals, who made a push to acquire him at the deadline. Lately the talk has shifted toward the Cubs and Mets being interested in Parra’s services. Between these three teams, a common thread exists in the outfield.

The Nationals’ only outfield opening is in center field. The Cubs’ only outfield opening is in center. The Mets’ only outfield opening is in center. The Cubs have been vocal about prioritizing their outfield defense, and we saw in the World Series that the Mets could benefit from a defensive upgrade at just about any position. So the question becomes: would signing Gerardo Parra to predominately play center field help a defense, or hurt it?

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Mike Trout, Four Years In

We are living in a golden age of youthful, historic talent, especially among position players. This was the case even before 2015, when the likes of Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor — all 23 years old or younger — joined the party. Previously, the Cubs had run out a slew of young stud position players on a daily basis, and Manny Machado and Bryce Harper have been around enough to truly be called veterans at this point. All of these greats all reside in the shadow of the best young player of them all, however: some guy named Mike Trout.

With a little luck, or perhaps some better judgment among voters, Trout could very well be celebrating an unprecedented fourth consecutive MVP award right about now. He’s got one of those on the mantle, along with three relatively controversial second place finishes. While I did predict in an ESPN Insider article this past March that Josh Donaldson would win the 2015 AL MVP, there is no doubt that, if I had a ballot, I would have slotted the Blue Jay third sacker on the second line, behind the Angel center fielder.

How great is Trout, and where might all of this be headed? Let’s take a somewhat unorthodox look at his first four seasons relative to some of the game’s all-time inner-circle superstars, and see where he fits in.

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Effectively Wild Episode 773: The Aroldis Chapman Trade Discussion

Ben and Sam banter about Lloyd McClendon’s new managerial job, then talk about Aroldis Chapman being on the block.


Win a Free Copy of THT 2016!

Have you heard? The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2016 is now available for sale. You can check out the table of contents and read some excerpts from the book. When you finish that you can purchase it from our independent publishing platform, Createspace, in print form, or from Amazon in print form (the Kindle version should be available later this week).

But wait, there’s more! Because we’re giving folk, and since it’s the beginning of the holiday season and all, we want to give you a chance to win yourself a free copy of the book. So today and tomorrow (and yesterday), we’ll be running a trivia contest based on one of the articles in the book. The first person to post the correct answer in the comments will win a free physical copy of the book (sorry, no free Kindle version). It’s just that simple!
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Finding the Next Bargain Relievers

Scan the leaderboard for the best relievers this past season, and sure, there are plenty of homegrown young studs with triple digit fastballs. For clubs in the market for bullpen assistance, however, they’ll take a decent prospect or two to pry loose from their current teams.

But there are also players like Darren O’Day, Hector Rondon, and Luke Gregerson — guys who, in the recent past, have been available at a lesser cost.

One was claimed off of waivers, one was a Rule 5 pickup, and the other took $19 million over three years to snatch up. How can your favorite team find one of those guys?

It’s all a sliding scale, obviously. The signs that point to a good three-year deal have to be stronger than the ones that point to a good camp invite. That said, let’s find the relievers who are most compelling relative to their likely cost.

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