FanGraphs Baseball

The analytically minded baseball fan knows all about BABIP. BABIP is essentially a sabermetric disclaimer. It’s something we cite every time we observe something new or different in a player’s game. “It seems like Player X is getting better (or worse), but it might just be BABIP noise.” In a way, HR/FB is a lot like that, especially for pitchers.

Pitchers can dramatically improve their run prevention with a little good fortune in the HR/FB department, even if they’re not really doing much differently. To that end, we’ve updated our HR/FB Library entry to help you better understand how to use the statistic to evaluate pitchers and their runs of good and bad performance.

As always, feel free to ask questions in the comments below or to find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44 if you have other inquiries.

The MLB should be receiving a new crop of far eastern talent in the next year or two, which means it is worth reacquainting ourselves with the standouts and talent levels of these leagues — specifically the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) and Japan’s Nippon Pro Baseball league (NPB).

Let’s start with Korea and Pittsburgh’s potential new infielder, Jeong-ho Kang:

NOTE: I am using wOBA+ here, which is merely my shorthand for wRC+ without park factors and using MLB linear weights. So the numbers are not perfect, but they’re better than OPS or OPS+.

The KBO is a hitter’s league. That is the refrain we hear most often whenever Kang’s surfaces. He slashed a filthy .356/.459/.739 with 40 homers in 2014, and his career stats suggest he’s a middle infielder who hits like he’s from the corner. But how good is he with respect to the league?

Answer: He’s the best. But a wide margin.

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Position: TrackMan/Perfect Game Data & Operations Intern

Locations: Goodyear, Ariz., Jupiter, Fla., LakePoint Sports Complex (Emerson, Ga.)

Description:
Be our hands and eyes on the ground. By this we mean the D&O Intern will be out in the field on almost a daily basis focused primarily on operating the TrackMan system and ensuring data quality measures are effectively in place at the point of capture. As part of the unique partnership between Perfect Game and TrackMan, you will be an integral piece of ensuring the added TrackMan value to players, coaches, college teams, and Major League teams.

At TrackMan Baseball we measure stuff – the speed, spin and movement of pitched and hit baseballs.

We do this using proprietary 3D Doppler radar hardware and software. The majority of Major League teams use our products and services for player development and evaluation. We also work with collegiate, Japanese and Korean teams, premier amateur baseball organizations, broadcasters and equipment manufacturers.

Our business is growing fast. By the start of next season we will have a network of radars installed in more than 100 stadiums on three continents, and dozens of remote systems traveling the US.

Responsibilities:

• Becoming an in-house expert for Perfect Game in the TrackMan Baseball system.
• Setup and maintenance of the TrackMan system per the defined requirements.
• Operate the TrackMan system and ensure all data is being captured effectively and accurately.
• Support the TrackMan and Perfect Game data operations teams in ad-hoc data requests and evaluations.
• Support the Perfect Game event staff in any additional areas to ensure successful event activation.

Preferred/Required Skills:

• Current college student or recent graduate with education focused on Sports Management, Statistics / Mathematics, Operations Management, or similar
• Ideally an individual who is a self-starter with an entrepreneurial attitude who can work individually while also supporting a larger team
• An ability to work through ambiguity and adaptable while working in fast-paced environment
• Strong computer skills (regular use of the TrackMan application)
• Strong knowledge of baseball rules
• Experience in Customer Relationship Management
• Experience in Project Management a plus
• Basic database and/or analytics experience a plus
• Ability to lift upwards of 50 lbs.

Benefits:

• Experience with operations, marketing, project management and statistics within a baseball setting.
• Strengthen your baseball analytics knowledge through access to game data and individual queries.
• Work within two growing companies ingrained in baseball culture.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:

Send a resume to kmy@trackman.dk and/or nba@trackman.dk. No phone calls please.

It’s a fact — confirmed by multiple writers whose nearly sole vocation in this life is to report on such matters — it’s a fact that right-handed reliever Jason Grilli has signed a two-year, $8 million with the Atlanta Braves, with a club option of a third year.

Per the terms of the agreement, one assumes, Grilli will report to the Braves’ facility in central Florida for spring training, where he’ll prepare himself to set up closer Craig Kimbrel. At the beginning of April, he’ll travel with the club to their season opener in Miami against the Marlins, then to Atlanta for a series against the Mets, and continue in this fashion for some time.

“For some time,” I say, but probably a time less than two years — and probably a lot more like three months. For, while any number of outcomes are possible regarding the Braves, the most likely one for 2015 is that they’ll win games at a lower rate than almost every other club in the majors. By way of illustration, consider the table below, which features the bottom-five clubs per this site’s projected 2015 standings.

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Let’s talk about the Twins for a moment. No, you probably don’t want to talk about the Twins, I understand, but it’s Christmas Eve, and the eight or so of you who are unfortunate enough to be in an office right now will probably be happy to talk about something, I think. And the Twins, certainly, are something.

Yesterday, Jeff Sullivan took a look at projected 2015 team defenses, and within that piece was a list of teams that you wouldn’t really want to be included on:

Now, the three worst defensive teams, projected:

• Astros
• White Sox
• Twins

It’s difficult to dispute that from a Minnesota perspective, because while Jeff noted the obvious caveats of attempting to project defense, the 2014 Twins finished 29th in DRS, 24th in UZR/150, and 27th in Defense. One of the teams regularly behind them, Cleveland, will no longer have a left side of the infield that occasionally lined up as Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana. They’ll still be below-average, but they might not be a train wreck. The Twins? The Twins’ main non-pitching move this winter has been to import baseball’s worst regular defender from a year ago, Torii Hunter, and park him in right field.

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The 2014 season was, in no uncertain terms, a disaster for the Texas Rangers. Injuries destroyed a promising club and left them in the basement of the American League West with a 67-95 record, losing more games than even the lowly Astros.

As easy as it might be to write 2014 off to injury, the Rangers as currently constructed don’t appear much better than the club that limped to those 95 loses. With 2015 just around the corner, the biggest move of their offseason so far was the one to acquire Ross Detwiler from the Nationals and decline their contract option on Alex Rios, making him a free agent.

The Rangers front office believes it can better with the some health and the absence of “cursed by a coven of witches” bad luck. Their two huge acquisitions ahead of 2014 — Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder — were both known for their durability and production before coming to Texas. Both players ended up vastly underperforming and managed just 700 plate appearances combined, where they hit a meagre .243/.345/.370 with 16 home runs – replacement level production from two superstars paid $38 million for their troubles.

Both players can’t help but improve on their 2014 seasons but what does that net the Rangers? Three more wins? Maybe four? They used 40 different pitchers (including three different position players) as the wide-ranging injuries pushed green players into positions they were not prepared to fill. They won’t have Martin Perez back until late this season (if at all) but the team as constituted looks like Darvish and Holland and pray for rain.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about the Hall of Fame, the best baseball gifts, GM track records, and more.

Episode 516
Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at FanGraphs. He’s also the nearly willing guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

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There are people who think we make too much of projections, and that’s with regard to hitting and pitching projections. That is to say, the more reliable projections. We pretty much never talk about defensive projections, and there’s enough controversy over defensive non-projections. People can’t even agree on what’s already happened, so it’s asking a lot to expect people to look at defensive forecasts and take them seriously. Also, hey, by the way, it’s not even Christmas yet, so there’s plenty of offseason left to go. We don’t yet know what team rosters are going to look like in April. Projections we have right now are of limited utility.

But, there’s nothing happening. It’s the holiday season, so now baseball’s moving slowly, and one of the things we offer here are team defensive projections, so, let’s look at those. They’re coming from Steamer, as usual, and they’re based on our current author-maintained depth charts, as usual. Following, a big table, which I will try my very hardest to make sortable.

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The holidays are upon us, and transactional activity is about to take a short hiatus, if history is a guide. (Though I do remember Jeff Suppan signing as a free agent on Christmas Eve when I was with the Brewers, but I digress.) Just some fun data for readers to chew on as they sip their beverage of choice over the next few of days.

Today, let’s take a look at the 2014 offensive ball-in-play (BIP) frequency and production leaders and laggards in the American League. Sometime around New Year’s, we’ll check out the NL. Caution: there is a fairly healthy dose of Danny Santana information to follow. Continue at your own risk.

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