Paul Sporer Baseball Chat — 3/27/15

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, we’ll get going soon! I know there are a number of drafts coming up this weekend, so I’ll be here for quite a while taking your questions today!

Comment From Jon
Who do you like more for this year and forever Shane Greene or Chase Anderson in a deep dynasty league?

Comment From Baseball Lover ATX
Cant wait!

Paul Sporer: Probably Greene, but it’s really close between those two.

Comment From neal
more WAR in 2015: Bartolo Colon, or Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips combined?

Paul Sporer: Hahaha, that’s a great question. Gimme Sizemore & Phillips (I’m not expecting anything from Lee).

Comment From Brian
How do you rank Wainwright, Carrasco, Alex Wood and deGrom?

Paul Sporer: Carrasco, deGrom, Wood, and Waino

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Should I be worried about Ryu?

Paul Sporer: Yes, at least somewhat.

Comment From Vslyke
How many months of the 2015 season do you think Carlos Martinez is in the rotation? 4?

Paul Sporer: 2

Comment From Greg
I have Mike Trout as a keeper, and I’m deciding between Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez as my 1B in a points league. Does having Trout give Pujols a boost at all, or am I overthinking it?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I mean there could be some nice chaining of scoring when LAA is rolling. I have Gonzalez and Pujols v close so if you wanna exploit the potential of one guy driving in another so Pujols’ RBIs are often your guy’s Rs, then by all means. There isn’t a big enough split to where I’d say you must take AGonz.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Nice to meet you Paul.. I’m kind of a big deal around here..

Paul Sporer: Don’t know what that means. I googled you, but not sure what’s going on.

Comment From Scrapper
Better long-term keeper: Gausman or Snydergaard)?

Paul Sporer: Syndergaard

Comment From Meat Cart
Paul! How do you feel about punting saves in head to head leagues? Daily moves, IP SV ERA WHIP K/9 and QS as cats

Paul Sporer: Yeah that can definitely be done

Comment From Bill
Please tell me your updated rankings will be available today!

Paul Sporer: Mine will. I don’t know that the other rankers will have updates or not.

Comment From Scrapper
Can you name one or two high standard deviation guys? In other words, they may not be anything but if they put it together the sky is the limit.

Paul Sporer: Arismendy Alcantara, Alex Guerrero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Anderson

Comment From Baseball Lover ATX
Very excited for the rankings, Paul. Really hope you will follow through on that.

Paul Sporer: Oh is that right? You’re eager for those rankings, are you? 🙂

Comment From Shawn
Does Brady Aiken’s surgery change the perception of how the Astros handled the situation last summer? This seems to validate their concerns about injury, but im sure there was much more to it than that.

Paul Sporer: Somewhat. I still don’t think they handled it *great*, but they aren’t the clowns they were made out to be when it happened.

Comment From Scrapper
Some scouts and analysts focus on velocity while others say that it is overemphasized. What do you think?

Paul Sporer: It can be overemphasized, but it’s REALLY important. It correlates well to success and can give a pitcher a big margin for error.

Comment From Will
How many games do you think Kris Bryant plays at 3B this year? At LF?

Paul Sporer: 100 and 20.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Do you feel as though Bryce Harper is being under valued this year? Peolpe forget he is still SOOO young and still has all the tools that made him a Mega prospect

Paul Sporer: No. I’m among the biggest believers, but he’s finally being appropriately valued and maybe even still a touch over-valued given what he’s done. I realize the ceiling is sky-high at Troutian levels (with more power and less speed), but we haven’t seen it and his GP total is going down year-to-year

Comment From Shawn
Also, does the aiken surgery change how teams approach this situation in the future?

Paul Sporer: No doubt, but Jeff Hoffman still went 9th overall with a TJ on the docket so it’s not like Aiken will be some 5th round pick

Comment From Ben175
what order would you draft these OFs: J.D. Martinez, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Holliday, Mark Trumbo, Alex Gordon, Shin Soo Choo, and Marcel Ozuna. Thank You.

Paul Sporer: JD, Holliday, Ozuna, Choo, Zimm, Gordon, and Trumbo. They’re in a pretty tight band, though, from like OF 18 to 35

Comment From Mikey Schmidt
https://youtu.be/WYNbp0u8Wj…

Paul Sporer: My girlfriend and I are really liking that show!!

Comment From Mikey Schmidt
They alive dammit!!

Paul Sporer: females are strong as hell

Comment From Eric
Thoughts on Homer Baily after his 29 pitch outing on Saturday? It sounds like his control was pretty good (throwing F bombs when he missed spots a few times), 20 of 29 pitches were strikes. He was sitting 90-91 mostly, and its his first real outing. Sounds like he may be ready in April. What are you throwing at him in say a 12 team mixer auction?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Bailey guy, but the injury has me worried so I’ve dropped him quite a bit. If I can get a huge discount, I’ll take a chance. I dunno, $9 or less?

Comment From Greg
You would take Carrasco over Wood, Wainwright and deGrom even though you threw him into your article of wet-blanketing three SPs?

Paul Sporer: Yes. I was wet-blanketing them to be sure we understood the risks. The wet-blanket guys doesn’t mean I dislike em or won’t draft em. I’ve got several Rendon & Springer shares and they were in the hitter wet-blanket club

Comment From Please Help
My AL-only auction is tomorrow and I’m looking to target some 8th inning guys who have the best shot at closing some time during the season. Can you name a bunch of guys I should be targeting? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’ll take a minute to plug the SP Guide (thespguide.com) which includes an Excel file of tiered ranks of the bullpens. But I’ll still give you a few names – Soria, Joe Smith, Fujikawa, Mujica, A.Miller obviously, Farq, and Qualls

Comment From The Big Dipper
Haven’t been here much since the playoffs ended. Who are you?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From HBHB
What do you like more: Devon Travis or Odubel Herrera?

Paul Sporer: Herrera

Comment From Curtis
Jesse Hahn get 20 starts with a sub 4 era?

Paul Sporer: Yes.

Comment From Ben
JD Martinez > Gerrit Cole > Matt Holliday…True or False?

Paul Sporer: True. Though team makeup to that point would sometimes have me taking Cole over JD. Like if I had two OFs or zero SPs or something.

Comment From Mr. Anderson
Team A gets J.Up/Teheran/C. Tillman, Team B gets Yelich/Hamels/A. Escobar. Who wins?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think there’s a clear winner. That’s a really fair trade, IMO. I prefer Team A only because J.Up is my highest rated player among the six

Comment From Lance
Which fantasy team name do you like best?

Paul Sporer: I use Beagz in the Trap a lot because of Curtis (instagram.com/curtisthebeagle/) and this awful, awful song https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From Joe
Samardzija or Salazar? 4×4, K’s don’t count.

Paul Sporer: It’s still Shark by light years. Unless one of the categories is Not Being White, then Shark destroys Salazar across the board.

Comment From Shawn
Beagz in the Trap is a plus-plus team name

Comment From JP
What 2 or 3 non closers would you target in a keeper NL only auction (5×5)?

Paul Sporer: Ken Giles, Adam Ottavino, and Brandon Maurer (he’s my flier of the group bc he still has to leapfrog Quackenbush, but I really like him)

Comment From Ryan
Was hoping you guys would address Daniel Norris in the podcast, but I realize you can’t get to everyone in two hours. Where are you at with him?

Comment From Baseball Lover ATX
beagz in the trap is hilarious. im a huge minaj fan

Paul Sporer: Ryan, I think the Aaron Sanchez analysis can mostly be applied to Norris. I think we’ll see a lot of ups and downs. He’ll look great for spells, but still have rookie struggles.

Paul Sporer: We’ll talk about that when you get home, Baseball Lover.

Comment From Pop
Every get Rolling Stones fans on your website?

Paul Sporer: LOL. Probably. Finally a website dedicated to my favorite song!

Comment From The Boat
Why is everyone low on Waino this year?

Paul Sporer: Sharp K drop, late-season elbow issues, early-2015 abdomen issues, and lots of mileage on that arm. For me, he HAS to log that massive innings total to be a fantasy ace because I don’t see the K rate returning and I don’t believe he will log another 220+ so he’s just not a fantasy ace for me.

Comment From Scrapper
Cubs’ brass continues to rave about Kyle Hendricks’ makeup. Can he be better than a 4th starter?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really think so, but there’s a lot of value in a quality 4th starter. He lives on command and control to induce poor contact from groundballs and I think we could see his K rate jump from last year’s 15%, but not too much higher. He’s going to be a low-K kinda guy (17-18%)

Comment From Max Power
Indians just demoted Salazar Slytherin. Boom.

Paul Sporer: Same issue that had me staying away last year remains – homers. He can’t regularly command his stuff right now and it’s a problem.

Comment From Shawn
Ughhh Salazar optioned to AAA. Bauer or Gausman a a good replacement?

Paul Sporer: Well Gausman might be in the bullpen, so take Bauer for now.

Comment From Pop
Phil Hughes, bearish or bullish?

Paul Sporer: You really don’t know who I am, I guess! LOL. I love Hughes.

Comment From Ben
Early in the season is it better to have pitching depth or hitting depth in a standard roto league?

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league-type to be honest, but I’d prefer to have some hitting depth because pitching is more likely to come into the league as the season wears on.

Comment From Tone
Should Desclafani be rostered in a 14 team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Yes!

Comment From Pauly
Your thoughts on this rotation in a 12 team mixed league:

Paul Sporer: I think you forgot to include the rotation

Comment From Pauly
Your thoughts on this rotation in a 12 team mixed league: SStrasburg, DPrice, SGray, MShoemker, DKeuchel, TJ House Could I afford to not pick an ace and spend more on a bat

Paul Sporer: This is a fantastic rotation! Are you asking about buying an ace in addition to these guys?

Comment From neal
hughes would be a lot more likable if he had living, breathing human beings in the outfield behind him instead of a collection of statues

Paul Sporer: Completely fair. And he needs to sharpen his command a bit in the zone to allow fewer hits, but I buy the gains from last year (not that we’ll see another 2% BB rate)

Comment From H2H is easier
I’ve only ever done H2H points but this weekend am doing a roto draft. How would you suggest changing strategy?

Paul Sporer: I’d pound hitting early whereas I feel pitching goes fast & furious in H2H

Comment From Pauly
No- was asking if I should not go after a David Price and spend more money on a bat. (That is a staff I think I can get at my auction keepers like Strasburg included)

Paul Sporer: You can probably get away with not buying Price.

Comment From Jason
What pitchers other than the obvious (Tanaka) are particularly likely to break down during the course of the season?

Paul Sporer: Impossible to answer really, but the best indicator of an injury is previous injury so just look at guys who have already been hurt. Brandon Morrow and Brett Anderson.

Comment From Haymaker
Keeper league where we keep 5 as long as we like with no draft/salary attachment–keepers are essentially the first 5 rounds of the draft. It is a 12 team mixed 6 x 6 roto w/6th O cat being Walks. It seems crazy to consider Kris Bryant with my first pick (equivalent of #69), but is it really? He will not yield that value this season but is it worth it to gamble that he will be a top 60 pick going forward for years to come? Is there not a reasonable chance that within the next couple years he could be Giancarlo Stanton with 3B eligibility? BTW, it is a 3 OF league, 1 C, & 2 Utility (no CI/MI). Risky? Sure. Crazy? You tell me.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I mean it’s definitely risky and I don’t think I’d do it, but even if he does nothing substantial this year, it won’t kill your team so if you’re feeling it, go for it

Comment From mymaus
Is there anyplace on the web where I can find ADP for a 10 team 5×5 OBP league or a rough estimate of such?

Comment From JP
Josh Harrison – top 3 thirdbasemen in NL or a mirage?

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately not that I’ve seen. I’ve looked for the same. This is an OBP league, so maybe you can glean a little something from it: http://www.rtsports.com/bas…

Paul Sporer: Well JP there’s a lotta wiggle room between top 3 and mirage, so I’ll say in between. I don’t think he finishes top 3 again, but I think he remains a strong asset.

Comment From john
5 hours. Let’s go!

Paul Sporer: Hour one in the books!

Comment From JP
AJ Burnett – is he worth rostering in an NL keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. People get too focused on the keeper aspect and avoid older guys. You’re still trying to win ’15 and I think AJ will be solid

Comment From pete
Name 4 players who will be probably be on the DL to begin the year who you think are under rated as they’re being drafted right now.

Paul Sporer: Nova, Corbin, Reddick (although latest news says he might actually make OD), and the two Nats (Span & Werth) are coming at sharp discounts

Comment From Victor
What will Jace Peterson’s stats look like at season’s end?

Paul Sporer: .250 AVG, 5 HR, 25 SB

Comment From Buck Showalter
Am I just trying to mess with Gausman fans, or will I actually roll out Ubaldo as my 5th starter come the regular season?

Paul Sporer: Ugh, it’s still TBD it seems. But on Gausman’s end, his breaker is still not ready for primetime it seems which caps his upside some. The fastball-splitter combo is still hot, but he needs something with a wrinkle.

Comment From john
Chance Daniel Hudson cracks the rotation this year? Would you trade a $13 m. Montero for a$1 Hudson in an NL only dynasty roto league with 13 teams

Paul Sporer: I thought I’d seen that he was going to be a reliever all year, but now it seems they’re wavering on that and could start him. I still won’t do that deal. He’s coming off of 128 TJ surgeries. I think Montero will be fine for $13

Comment From JP
Darin Ruf – Over/Under 400 PA this year?

Paul Sporer: under

Comment From Rodonculous
Coming to the end of a 12-team mixed points league slow draft. How would you rank these guys:

Comment From Rodonculous
Shoot, how would you rank these guys: Jesse Hahn, TJ House, Desclafani, Matt Garza, Jaime Garcia, Nathan Eovaldi, Barolo Colon

Paul Sporer: thespguide.com …. 🙂

Latest ranks are: Garza, House, Hahn, Eovaldi, Desc, Garcia, and Colon.

Comment From Nick
How much are you buying Taijuan Walker this year? Would you rather have Drew Hutchison?

Paul Sporer: I love Taijuan, but I’m still going with Hutch. Taijuan has rocketed up the board, though, as he moves closer and closer to securing a spot

Comment From fatdog
CJCron worth keeping at $10 with the LAA great unknown on the horizon?

Paul Sporer: League type really matters here.

Comment From Down South
If I submitted questions 30 – 40 minutes ago, any chance they will be answered or have you moved past those questions?

Paul Sporer: They will still be answered

Comment From zurzles
pour one out for my auction last night. i’m here to come out against the philosophy that the worst thing ever is leftover money. i’d rather have finished with an extra $15 than literally lose out on every one of my late-draft targets. it’s good to have a bit of wiggle room at the end.

Paul Sporer: I hear you, but I’d rather get my high and mid dollar guys than my late-dollar ones. Chances are you’ll get more value out of those more expensive guys.

Comment From Mr. Sporer…please lend me your ear
Hi Paul. Thanks for doing the chat. I’m in a 12 team, 5×5 and have the 12th pick. I’m debating between Bautista, Rizzo, Tulo, Donaldson and Scherzer with my 1st two. Wanted to know which of those 2 you’d go with or if there was someone else I should target among players usually available around there. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: That’s a great group. I like going double Jays with Bautista and Donaldson, though there is a strong case for Tulo in a 12-teamer because when he inevitably misses time, you won’t have the worst time replacing him. So gimme Tulo and your favorite Jay between Donaldson & Bautista (flip a coin).

Comment From Eric
What do you expect from Rusney Castillo this year. It looks like his playing time will be dependent on a Victorino trade/injury. If Boston is really in it, maybe they just bench Victorino for him? It seems to me that stories of his speed being 70 grade may be overhyped a bit. But his power looks good. What are your projections on AB, AVG, HR, SB?

Paul Sporer: Skill plays and he’s very skilled. Plus it helps that he’s being paid $10mil. You don’t want too many $10mil guys in Pawtucket. I think he gets the PT for a 15 HR/20 SB kind of season with a .275 kinda average. I really like him.

Comment From JP
Are there any young 2B to target in NL or are they all glove first?

Paul Sporer: Scooter Gennett, Arismendy Alcantara, DJ LeMahieu, and Joe Panik

Comment From Bier Hier
Dynasty league with on base – could you rank Springer, Betts, Pederson and Polanco? Keep forever

Paul Sporer: Springer, Betts, Polanco, and Pederson

Comment From zurzles
do you share Eno’s enthusiasm on DeScla?

Paul Sporer: I mentioned on the pod yesterday that he’s sold me on him, but that’s his guy so no, Eno is still higher. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From john
How many ab do you see alcantarra getting? LA Stella? They can’t really bring Baez North right now, can they?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s their super-utility guy and gets at least 500 PA.

Comment From Jason Austin
Votto $29 dollar keeper 10 team NL only with OBP instead of average?

Paul Sporer: You’re just bragging, aren’t you? That’s a fantastic price in an NL OBP.

Comment From Buck Showalter is high
…if he puts Ubaldo in the rotation at the expense of Gausman. Don’t Chen and Gonzales still have minor league options left?

Paul Sporer: They can’t justify sending out Chen or Gonzalez. That’d be terrible. I don’t think Gausman should lose out to Ubaldo, either, but if they feel he needs more seasoning, they aren’t necessarily wrong. I just think his on the job training would still net better results than anything Ubaldo could do

Comment From Scott
What is your current and keeper outlook on Sean Doolittle as a closer?

Paul Sporer: I’m still pretty high on him even with the built-in missed time

Comment From Yosh
How many for PAs this year for Hector Olivera of the Dodgers?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I have no idea. I couldn’t even foster a guess. I’m not drafting him at all.

Comment From Matt
Where do you currently rank Betances among closers given that he hasn’t been formally annointed?

Paul Sporer: I still have him second to Chapman. I’m not worried about the lack of a formal announcement or the lame Spring Training.

Comment From Nolan H
Your take on Joey Votto this year? Rebound?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From Hipster Beard
You and Joe Pisapia got along pretty well on dmfantasy. Perhaps just a little too well… Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Paul Sporer: Aren’t you though? Aren’t you? Tighten it up.

Comment From adam
A number of fangraph writers suggest that DHing is a skill. What statistics or otherwise back this up?

Paul Sporer: The studies have shown a 10% decrease in production as DH so it’s pretty clearly a skill to do the job. It’s not easy to just hit. A lot of guys like to be engaged throughout the game. It all checks out for me. Edgar for HOF!!!!

Comment From adam
Who would it be smarter to sell on if you had to: Freeman or Rendon?

Paul Sporer: Freeman. You’d be selling low on Rendon right now. Wait until he plays and gets going to assuage the fears.

Comment From Pop
AL only, Can you rank this pitchers? House, Pomeranz, Greene, Miley and Warren. THanks

Paul Sporer: Greene, Pomeranz, Miley, House, and Warren

Comment From Jolly Roger
Hi Paul. In a no-costs dynasty league, I can keep one (maybe two) of Segura, Semien, and Flores to back up Castro at SS. How would you rank them? And do you see Semien or Flores playing 3B enough (i.e. 10 games) to gain/maintain eligibility there?

Paul Sporer: Segura and Flores would be my choices. I can definitely see Semien hold 3B elig.

Comment From Shawn
Is Salazar now droppable in 10 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely.

Comment From Marty
Arrietta or Gerritt Cole in a QS K/BB league?

Paul Sporer: Cole

Comment From Dave
Do you share a brain with Jason?

Paul Sporer: No, we’re both just hella smart

Comment From in+the+ATX
Is Sam Fuld a sneaky SB option?

Paul Sporer: No more than previous years. We’ve seen a couple 20 seasons and we could see another, but I still prefer Rajai, Gentry, and Dyson over him

Comment From Mikey Schmidt
(traditional 16 team 5×5 – waited on SS and now stuck) please rank for me: Asdrubal Cabrera, Brad Miller, Jung-Ho Kang, Andrelton Simmons, Jed Lowrie

Paul Sporer: Miller, Cabrera, Kang, Lowrie, and Simmons

Comment From adam
Would any teams buy Baez right now given his apparent K issue?

Paul Sporer: Probably all 29

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
In a NSH league, is it even worth drafting a top closer in your opinion??

Paul Sporer: Definitely. Save totals are still much higher than Hold totals and the top closers offer much more than saves – amazing ratios and a ton of Ks that can help you cover a lower-K guy later in your rotation like Fister or Alvarez

Comment From Shawn
10 team roto 5×5- I may have waited too long on SPs and while I like my staff of Wood, Carrasco, Wacha, Salazar, McCarthy, and Hahn I feel like im behind the other guys who all seem to have 2 or more studs. Do I need to make a trade or are you comfortable with that staff? Also have Chapman/Betances/A.Miller at RP

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I can understand you feeling that way, but you probably made up for it with hitting and of course your RPs are insane. You might be a little behind, but I don’t think you need to trade right now. Sit tight and see how it plays out. If Carrasco, Wacha, and Wood pan out as I believe they can, you’ll be just fine.

Comment From Jolly Roger
Hi Paul. Who do you think will be the better fantasy pitcher this year, Salazar or House? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: House, even before Salazar’s demotion.

Comment From Dave
Pick 5 in 10-team with OBP, TB, QS, K/9. Kershaw okay at 5th overall? How should I adapt my overall strategy for this kind of shallow, sabermetric format?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, he’s fine there, but I might prefer a big power bat because they really get a boost with OBP and TB. You should be willing to take on more risk in this format bc the wire can cover you if it flops. Guys like Harvey, Carrasco, Tulo, Cargo. High volatility. I’d open with the biggest power bat available. Probably Cabrera, Stanton or Goldy will make it to you

Comment From john
I told eno how long you chatted last week, and planned to this week. He sounded nervous that hell be losing folks to the sporer chat!

Paul Sporer: Hahaha, I think Eno will still have a full queue ANY time he chats.

Comment From Eeephus
Elias, Chase Anderson, Shane Greene, TJ House, Desclafani, Despaigne, Graveman. Long term 20 team, 18 keeper, Who do you like? Am I missing anyone?

Paul Sporer: I gotta punt here a bit since we did 2 hours on these guys yesterday – http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… Almost all of them are mentioned in great detail!

Comment From Joey V
Marte or Nelson Cruz in a keeper league that counts OPB and SLG on top of the normal 5 offensive categories? Do you believe in Marte’s 900+ OPS in the 2nd half of last year?

Paul Sporer: I really like Marte!! I do believe he is a potential superstar. Cruz is no slouch, especially with SLG counting, but his OBP isn’t special and of course Marte has him in the other categories like AVG, R, and SB

Comment From Cronut Burger
What do you expect the outcome to be with Josh Hamilton? When is the next time we see him play a regular season game?

Paul Sporer: Ugh, I really don’t know. I’d just like to see him get back on track in his personal life. I don’t think he’ll play until the summer.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
In a very deep NL only W,K,ERA count – Matzek, Wieland, or Webster for a gambler?

Paul Sporer: Matzek for upside. Wieland for floor. Eno really likes Webster.

Comment From johnny rotten
best available 3B for me in the draft was Ryan Zimmerman. Any super sleeper 3B’s that could be potentially better?

Paul Sporer: I think Zimm will be really good this year. Lawrie, Castellanos, and Plouffe are late-round 3B I like for strong seasons.

Comment From Shawn
We know you’re the SP guru, but who are some hitters you like to breakout this year?

Paul Sporer: Grandal, L.Martin, S.Castro, and I think Carlos Santana is poised for a career year (.270, 30+, 100+)

Comment From Scott
Extensions due tomorrow, what do you do with a $3 Doolittle, for $5 per additional year? THank you!

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t extend him. Just keep him at $3 for this year. Closers are too volatile for extensions.

Comment From Pochemole Cameron
Miggy, Goldschmidt, or Stanton with the 6th pick in a draft? Non keeper (avg and OPS league)

Paul Sporer: Miggy, Stanton, and Goldy. Razor-thin difference between ’em.

Comment From Titegraine Cameron
Who is your “Dead Cat” bounce back candidate this year??

Paul Sporer: ARod.

Comment From Do you have NL only rankings on the site?
Do you have NL only rankings on the site?

Paul Sporer: No, you’d have to parse the mixed. The positions have AL/NL distinction so it’d be easy to get the NL guys. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From AL Pitching Coach
Please rank: Greene, Eovaldi, House and Pomeranz. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I feel like I have about 11 times in this chat alone.

Comment From Rookie
How long does Nathan keep his job?

Paul Sporer: Maybe until Tax Day. Soria and Rondon are worthy gambles, IMO.

Comment From adam
gut feeling about wacha?

Paul Sporer: I ranked him 20th in my SP tiers. I’m expecting a lot.

Comment From Thomas
Is Sal Perez overrated? Miggy Montero is on waivers, should i pick him up and then flip Sal for a nice profit in dynasty, or is Montero that much worse?

Paul Sporer: Yes he is. if you can flip Sal for a nice profit, I’d do it.

Comment From Mea Culpa
Can you please rank the following for a dynasty league?… Jose Peraza, Devon Travis, A. Alcantara, Dilson Herrera, Brandon Drury and Rob Refsnyder

Paul Sporer: Alcantara, Peraza, Travis, Herrera, Ref, and Drury

Comment From Jolly Roger
Hi Paul. If Travis is the opening day starter at 2B for the Jays, is he a better fantasy play than Gennett?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I still prefer Gennett.

Comment From Guest
Who are you and what are you doing here?

Paul Sporer: Both of those answers should be quite obvious at this point.

Comment From Michael
Odds that Chris Davis is a top-12 first baseman? How about top-8?

Paul Sporer: Pretty high I’d say. But he should qualify at 3B in all leagues, so I’d really focus on him there as he gets more value being deploy there.

Comment From Vslyke
Dang, that low on C-Mart? Is that a reflection of the strength ahead of him or concerns about his ability to start? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m concerned about his ability to start. Not close to giving up, but definitely concerned.

Comment From Dave
Was Drew Hutchinson’s slider adjustment (and simultaneous bump in swinging strike rate) at the end of last year real? Repeatable?

Paul Sporer: I think so. http://www.thespguide.com/b…

Comment From With a C
What’s your best guess on C. Davis HR/RBI/OBP?

Paul Sporer: 34, 98, .323

Comment From LaRussas Ghost
Waino last of that group (Carrasco, DeGrom, Wood)? Can you elaborate?

Paul Sporer: Comment From The Boat

Why is everyone low on Waino this year?
via·about an hour ago

Paul Sporer

Sharp K drop, late-season elbow issues, early-2015 abdomen issues, and lots of mileage on that arm. For me, he HAS to log that massive innings total to be a fantasy ace because I don’t see the K rate returning and I don’t believe he will log another 220+ so he’s just not a fantasy ace for me.

via·about an hour ago

Comment From Hop Head
What do you expect from Miguel Castro? Latest talks are he will break camp with the Jays.

Paul Sporer: I think he could be a solid high-K RP. Not quite Aaron Sanchez ratios from last year, but more Ks than he had.

Comment From hack
Does Billy Burns make the team?

Paul Sporer: Probably not.

Comment From What are some NL pitchers that would be valued under $8 that could return value?
NL relief pitchers: some targets for K’s and great ratios?

Paul Sporer: 12:39
Comment From JP
What 2 or 3 non closers would you target in a keeper NL only auction (5×5)?
12:39
Paul Sporer: Ken Giles, Adam Ottavino, and Brandon Maurer (he’s my flier of the group bc he still has to leapfrog Quackenbush, but I really like him)

Comment From Dave
Shallow 10-team 6×6 league with QS, IP, K/9. I want to draft Kershaw at #5 overall and then wait forever to get my #2 SP. Like 10 rounds. Smart or dumb?

Paul Sporer: Not dumb, but probably unnecessary. Just not that much must-have hitting that you need to pass on pitching that long.

Comment From Tim
Rate Fiers, Odorizzi, Kuechel, and Shoemaker for 2014

Paul Sporer: Fiers, Shoemaker, Keuchel, and Odorizzi

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Re Ryu: If there are still good SPing on the waiver wire (Breakout type pitchers), would you recommend dropping Ryu before these guys get picked up? Or patience is key

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league size.

Comment From Chris
Cashner and LaRoche for JD Martinez and Jesse Hahn – which side do you want – H2H standard 5×5.

Paul Sporer: Cash/LaR. I really like JD, but I don’t think his advantage over LaR is as big as Cash over Hahn.

Comment From Guest
His name was Robert Paulsporer

Paul Sporer: And don’t you forget it

Comment From hack
Hi. Can you rank the potential closers for owning in 2015: Miller, Ottivino, Soria, McGee, Cecil, R. Soriano.

Paul Sporer: Well Cecil is a closer so he’s the #1. Miller, Soria, McGee, Ottavino, and then Soriano way low bc he doesn’t have a team and he’s a million years old

Comment From Pop
PaulSporer virgin chatter here….do you do ludes like Eno?

Paul Sporer: Like ludes ludes? https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From Tommy
How many years of top-14 fantasy SS does Jimmy Rollins have left?

Paul Sporer: 1?

Comment From Haymaker
Where do you put Mookie Betts on your OF list in a league that has Walks as a 6th offensive cat? Can you give me a few names you have him grouped among?

Paul Sporer: Around these guys in late-20s, early-30s — Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Kole Calhoun, Alex Gordon

Comment From Con
Pollock or Eaton this year?

Paul Sporer: Pollock bc he has a little more pop, but it’s close.

Comment From drassel
what to expect from Ryan Zimmerman in a full season?

Paul Sporer: 19 HR, 84 RBI, .286 AVG

Comment From Guest
Do you make your own projections or use a particular projection system/hyrbid?

Paul Sporer: I don’t do a full proj system of my own.

Comment From Tony G.
I expect Koji to either be hurt or ineffective for much of 2015. Much like Eno, I’m all over Tazawa deserving to get the first shot, even though most are in Mujica’s camp. Who does Paul Sporer see getting the first shot at replacing Koji?

Paul Sporer: I think Mujica gets the first shot, but I don’t know that he holds it which bring Tazawa into play. Brandon Workman is a darkhorse for me.

Comment From zurzles
Fair to say Wood’s getting overrated because everyone’s overlooking wins? Will any draftable pitcher get less run support?

Paul Sporer: No. Wins are vastly overrated. Draft skills. Yeah, he and Teheran could get the Hamels/Lee treatment with like 9 wins, but the ratios and Ks will be enough to cover it. And we just can’t predict Ws. The Braves will probably win at least 65-70 games and Teheran & Wood could easily get 13 of ’em which is fine.

Comment From Ryan
I’m fairly new to fantasy baseball and need some help. I’m keeping Brantley, Kipnis and Kluber in a keep seven. Good chance I can get Carrasco as my #2, and I still love House, Salazar, etc. Is it a problem to have so many Indians in a head-to-head points league?

Paul Sporer: Don’t get Salazar. It’s fine getting multiple guys from the same team, but don’t overdo it.

Comment From Alex
What are the chances that Starlin Castro has a SB resurgence with Joe Maddon as manager, and he’s a top-5 fantasy shortstop? He’s only 25, I can’t imagine the speed is all gone…

Paul Sporer: I expect more pop than speed – http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Paul Sporer: Gonna slow down for a little as I eat lunch, but I’m not going anywhere!

Comment From daneyko
Kevin Gausman will really start in the pen?

Paul Sporer: Could be. Which sucks!

Comment From hack
Kazmir or Keuchal for this year? gracias mr. sporer.

Paul Sporer: Kazmir, but same tier.

Comment From L. Scott
Can Marlon Byrd hit 30 HR if he plays nearly every day? Great fit for him in CIN.

Paul Sporer: Sure, he could, but I’d still just look for him in the 23-25 HR range that we’ve seen the last two years. It’s not like Cincy is a much better park for HRs than Philly so I don’t see any reason to project a jump for him.

Comment From Dude
What’s for lunch? An Eno-like sangwich?

Comment From Kris
whats for lunch

Comment From Baseball Lover ATX
What are you going to eat for lunch, Paul?

Paul Sporer: Tacos!!!

Paul Sporer: My girlfriend thinks I’m going to turn into a taco soon.

Comment From JWR
What do you set in your roto leagues as the balance between hitting $ v. pitching $?

Paul Sporer: I don’t usually have a hard-set split as I like to adjust in auction. I feel confident enough to dive deep into the pitching pool if necessary so if I miss out on my upper-tier arm targets, I’ll shift that money to hitting and leverage the middle and late tiers of pitching.

Comment From Aaron Cline
Rank ’em Dynasty league: Chase Anderson/Shane Greene/T.J House/Anthony Desclafani/Danny Salazar. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I honestly feel like I’ve ranked these exact guys about 42 times in this chat. 🙂

Comment From DBacks Make Me Rage
NL Only, 12 teams, 4 SP slots, 5 RP slots, 1 P slot. Should I try to compete this year with a staff of Harvey, Wood, McCarthy, B Anderson, Cosart, C Anderson, Jaime Garcia. Giles, Quackenbush, Strop, Janssen, Will Smith, or should I try dealing the bigger names away and go for next year when I have Corey Seager and Addison Russell as 2 of my 8 keepers and not Jhonny Peralta and Wilson Ramos.

Paul Sporer: you should always try to compete in the current year unless you take over some piece of shit dynasty team that has ZERO hope. you have an ace in Harvey, a great #2 in Wood and then solid specs that could pan out behind ’em. Go for it this year. In fact, don’t be afraid to move Seager or Russell to improve your chances this year.

Comment From willy
43

Comment From Jolly Roger
Hi Paul, I need to pare down my prospects in dynasty. Would you keep D.J. Peterson or Maikel Franco? How about Jesse Winker or David Dahl? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Can you keep Dahl and Winker or is it just one from each pair?

Comment From Alex Cobb
Can people feel more confident in me now? Do you see a TJS in my near future?

Paul Sporer: I love your talent, but no, we can’t feel confident until you actually throw a full season.

Comment From JWR
Do you think that Aroldis Chapman could successfully be converted back to starting?

Paul Sporer: no.

Comment From Southcoast
Who’s got the more accurate pitching forecasts for ERA and WHIP between Forecaster or BP Prospectus Player forecast manager?

Paul Sporer: I honestly don’t know. I think there are some reports out there that judge accuracy of each outlet.

Comment From hack
You buying into Steve Pearce’s good spring? Belt or Pearce for a late 1b grab?

Paul Sporer: I think Pearce is a perfectly fine cheap power source, but Belt is a much better investment

Comment From Dallas
Ortiz or Pearce

Paul Sporer: Def Ortiz

Comment From Dallas
Devon Travis or Jace Peterson

Paul Sporer: Travis.

Comment From Jonny
You mentioned that you don’t keep closers because of year to year volatility. Does that also trend over to AL/NL only leagues as well?

Paul Sporer: I’ll keep em for a year, but I won’t extend ’em. I’ve got cheap Melancon and Betances in several leagues. But no long term deals.

Comment From John Stamos
Dynasty Trade Q: Trade Mesoraco for Grandal + David Dahl?

Paul Sporer: I’d do that. I worry about Meso health.

Comment From Joe
Any idea what position Yoan Moncada will play? Is he the real deal?

Paul Sporer: I think I heard 2B. No idea if he’s for real.

Comment From Cleveland Indians
We have sent Danny Salazar to AAA.

Paul Sporer: I mean, I get it. He’s a HR machine.

Comment From ManBearPuig
By the way Paul, you’re a beast for this chat and all the S&tB pods. Thanks dude.

Paul Sporer: Well thank you!

Comment From john
Where are all my questions?

Paul Sporer: Hell if i know. I don’t delete questions.

Comment From Scrapper
Jose Frernandez was brought up ridiculously early but proved he could handle it? Could Urias do likewise?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, he reasonably could. Big difference is where LAD is on the win curve compared to MIA when they brought him up so they’d have to be REALLY sure about Urias.

Comment From HBHB
Looking to stash a prospect in my NA slot (redraft roto), who would give the most production? Drury/Moya/AJ Cole/Bundy

Paul Sporer: Drury has the best angle at PT. Bundy still carries the highest upside.

Comment From Matt
How do you deal with tiers? I’m doing the valuations for my draft and I just see massive cliffs of about $10 at 1B after Votto and SS after Tulo. Would you be willing to double dip in an Auction? It seems even harder in a draft…

Paul Sporer: I will double dip in a tier if the value is there for sure. I don’t worry about getting a CI when I don’t have a starting 2B and stuff like that. Or even my UT slot if there’s a stud available.

Comment From Johnson
What are your thoughts on Teheran? Do you think he is primed to have a similar season to last year?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I love him. I think there is K upside, too. Wins could be tough obviously, but I don’t let that drive my valuation.

Comment From Ryan
What did Carrasco change last season that made his K rate jump so high, and why is it sustainable?

Paul Sporer: he ditched a delivery and went stretch all the time, plus his stuff has always been nasty!!!

Comment From Baltese Falcon
Schoop or Everth, who starts the season as Baltimore’s 2B? Who has the job midway through the season?

Paul Sporer: I’m picking Cabrera. They obviously offer different things fantasy-wise, but I prefer Everth.

Comment From Mike
Hi Paul

Paul Sporer: Hi Mike

Comment From Ryan
I miss Jeff; I also hate change. These things may be related.

Paul Sporer: I’m just subbing for Jeff for two weeks and then I move to Sundays

Comment From Mikey
Thoughts on Morneau this year? Is he a more than viable corner infield option?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. As long as he’s in COL, I’m buying

Comment From Randall
What’s your level of concern over Alex Cobb?

Paul Sporer: I’m concerned enough to drop him a bit, but I still love the talent. We need to see a full season though

Comment From Mike
Over/under on 25 SB, 7 HR, and top-35 OF from Adam Eaton?

Paul Sporer: those are great O/Us, I’d go over on the SBs… under on the HRs (but by like 2)

Comment From Larry
Is Choo being undervalued? Before his injury riddled season in 2014, wasn’t he something like a low end OF2? Can’t imagine THAT much has changed since then…

Paul Sporer: Very. I love Choo. He needs to stay healthy obviously, but I’m in.

Comment From Vottohhh
Like the music switch on the podcast! Where is Votto in a 12 team 6×6 OPS league? Round? Overall 1b?

Paul Sporer: Thank you! I don’t think OPS changes him THAT much since it’s not just his OBP, so he’s in that tier w/Freeman, VMart, AGonz, Carter, Pujols

Comment From Willie
Big money league 5×5 roto – Miggy, Stanton or Goldy at pick #3?

Paul Sporer: Razor-thin margin between those three. I’m still taking Miggy, though.

Comment From Rotation-Woetation
Wow. This is still going? Awesome.

Paul Sporer: We’re just getting going.

Comment From ManBearPuig
not strictly fantasy but how do you feel about J Hey in a Cardinals uniform? I can’t wait to see him patrolling that outfield.

Paul Sporer: I’m still a full believer. And I know people are annoyed with all StL stuff about their fans and how great it is to play for them, but I think there is at least something to it and I think he will flourish there. I like him for real-life and fantasy!!

Comment From Dude
Desmond Jennnings, Coco Crisp, or Michael Saunders?

Paul Sporer: Des!

Comment From Nick
How many innings do you think Pineda can throw this year? How high would you rank him in a league that uses pitcher BBs as a negative category?

Paul Sporer: That’s a tough one. I really wish we could get a buck eighty outta him, but it’s hard to bet on. I’d bump him a tier or two in that kind of league, though. Plan for 130 IP and take anything else as gravy.

Comment From 2+legit
In a dynasty league with minor league draft this weekend. Best minor leaguers to target for holds and saves this year?

Paul Sporer: OMG, I’m sorry but that’s so hard. I’d take a different approach w/my minor leaguers

Comment From JWR
Is there a report anywhere on fangraphs where you can compare a pitcher’s velocity in a given year against his velocity the year before?

Paul Sporer: I don’t *think* so. Just on their player page: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Chris
Is a SP staff of Cueto/Carrasco/Archer/Cashner/Hughes/Shoemaker/Hutchinson enough? 12 team – 5×5 H2H league…Feel like I need to upgrade one more if I can.

Paul Sporer: Stop bragging! That’s great IMO!

Comment From Grainedanslepeteux Cameron
For non auction drafts, would you ever do a draft with a 10 second draft clock? Seems like it could make things a little more challenging and interesting

Paul Sporer: Makes thing unnecessarily more difficult.

Paul Sporer: things*

Comment From Bobbo
Longterm…. Bryce Harper or Yasiel Puig? Points league where a BB = a 1B

Paul Sporer: I’m a Harper guy

Comment From guest
NL only 5×5 with 2 C’s – 7 player keeper so added inflation. Must cut one of the following 3: J.Nelson($1), H.Alvarez($3), C.Bethancourt($4). Was going to keep the pitchers, but having second thoughts – especially seeing Bethancourt hit 5th all spring. I know Atl hitting looks awful but any starting catcher goes for $10+ in this league. What would you do and if you only kept one of the pitchers, which one?

Paul Sporer: You seem to make your own case to keep Bethancourt, though I don’t know that he’ll bat fifth all year. I’d personally keep the two arms, but if you’re only keeping one, go Alvarez. I know he’s K-deficient, but you can make it up.

Comment From John Thomas
How baller do the Astros look now?

Paul Sporer: Because of Aiken? I mean, I doubt they’re giddy that a kid has to have TJ.

Comment From zurzles
Can QS be added to the points half of the auction calculator?

Paul Sporer: Hit the Contact Us here – http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Paul Sporer: and I don’t mean to punt there, but I just don’t have any control over it.

Comment From JWR
Where do we go to see your most current rankings?

Paul Sporer: Well I haven’t updated these yet – http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… but I will be by this evening

Comment From Scott
Polanco or Marte for 2015?

Paul Sporer: Marte, by a lot.

Comment From Baseball Lover ATX
what time this evening?

Paul Sporer: Ideally before my girlfriend gets home.  

Comment From Floyd
Better NL Only rotation hopeful stash – RMontero or RDelgado?

Paul Sporer: Montero, but I do really like Delgado. Just not sure they’re gonna let him start.

Comment From schmesh
What is/was your job before FG? Also, any chance Corey Dickerson > Harper this year in 5×5?

Paul Sporer: I was at BP. Before baseball I was at Tableau and Dell. Yes there is a chance. He SMASHED him last year so I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Harper catches up this year. Love Harper’s talent, but he’s more promise than performance at this point. Dickerson has a full beast season under his belt.

Comment From Victor
Does TJ House have staying power for a dynasty league, worth of $3 in $90 salary cap?

Paul Sporer: Yes. I think he’s more high-floor than high-ceiling but that has value and if my math is right, that’s still single digits in a $260 cap league.

Comment From Dude
Are you and Doug Thorburn still going to be doing TINSTAPP this year?

Paul Sporer: Probably not as a separate podcast. We do once a week on the Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Podcast (I actually just recorded that during this last hour of the chat) and so that might function as a makeshift TINSTAAPP. We don’t want to quit it, but time is becoming an issue and so it might have to fall by the wayside as a result.

Comment From Cal
House and Desc are both available as free agents in my league. I’ll have a spot opening up once I get to stash Doolittle on my DL. Who should I pick ip? League is H2H and counts losses as well as wins.

Paul Sporer: House for me.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Pomeranz or Descalfini?

Paul Sporer: Pomy

Comment From boysofsuma
what is your take on Anthony DeSclafani Eno likes him

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna kill the next person that asks about DeSclafani, lol!

Comment From Marty
Thoughts on Yasmany Grandal this season? Serviceable C in a 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: Yes. I love him. Big boost in OBP, too.

Comment From Ryan
Approve the move in 12-teamer? Speculative add of Rodon, and drop Salazar

Paul Sporer: Approved! :stamps paper:

Comment From Adam
are you speculating on anyone for saves with the White Sox due to Robertson’s injury?

Paul Sporer: Nah. Maybe Zach Duke, but they don’t have any obvious options and I’m not even sure Duke would be the guy being a lefty. I just think since they paid him and no one really did great for em last year that he’d get a shot.

Comment From Streamer
Pomeranz or Hahn? They seem pretty close to me

Paul Sporer: Pomy!

Comment From Guest
Other than baseball, Eno has beer,Jeff has Volcanos, Dave has financial planning, other than baseball, what is your major interest?

Paul Sporer: I feel like someone asked me this last week, too. I love TV (Broad City, Bob’s Burgers, Archer, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Workaholics, At Midnight, Kroll Show, etc… for comedies; not invested in a lot of dramas right now bc of the time of year, but I love Mad Men and Suits)

Comment From Scott
Kevin Gausman to the bullpen? How long before he claims a spot in the rotation? Is he worth a stash?

Paul Sporer: Not long if Ubaldo is the guy to take his role. Yes worth a stash in most leagues.

Comment From Tom
Is it just me, or could Scooter Gennet be a possible top 10 2B for super cheap?

Paul Sporer: You’re right. I think he’s really underrated for some reason. I know he’s a platoon guy, but it’s the strong side.

Comment From G
I like Grandal too, but how many ABs do you think he’ll get with Ellis still there?

Paul Sporer: Still most of em. Ellis is a zero w/the bat so he might be a once-a-week guy, maybe twice. I know Kershaw supposedly loves throwing to Ellis.

Comment From Steven Seagal
Dalton Pompey is a bad ass name. Do you think he has legit upside down the road or mostly a 1 or 2 category bro?

Paul Sporer: I think he has 2015 upside. Huge speed potential and even a bit of pop so he’s not that one-trick pony like Revere (or two trick, SB & AVG).

Comment From david
what would you add to McCann in a trade to get Santana?

Paul Sporer: That’s REALLY vague and tough to answer. I’d ask the Santana guy what he wants.

Comment From JP
how much benefit does Shields get moving to NL and getting Petco for half his starts?

Paul Sporer: A pretty good benefit. I think it can mask some skills fade and keep him at least where he was last year (top 30)

Comment From Ballpark_Frank
How many games does Evan Gattis play at 1B?OF?C?

Paul Sporer: That’s impossible to answer, I’m sorry. Not many at C is the best I can give ya. Most in LF.

Comment From JP
Any reason to hold on to a $1 T Roark in a NL only 4×4?

Paul Sporer: Sure. Last time a team made it through the season with just five SPs was 2003 (Seattle).

Comment From Dave
Is there any reason left to roster Lincecum in an NL only league?

Paul Sporer: Nope

Comment From West307
Hi Paul, How do you see the Indians approaching Salazar? Maybe a month in the minors and then he comes up a bumps Mcallister/Tomlin back to a relief role? Do you see Mcallister or Tomlin locking up the 5th spot now?

Paul Sporer: Only if he performs. The simple fact is, he doesn’t deserve a spot right now and McAllister or Tomlin could reasonably wrest that from him for quite some time. The HRs need to stop.

Comment From Kris
Do you subscribe to the quantity over quality for pitching in H2H leagues? I have enough trust in you and Eno to pick out some guys late in the draft and have a stacked offense, am I off base?

Paul Sporer: I think your thinking is right. If you trust yourself to do the work for late SPs and waiver pickups, then by all means stack your O and stream away!

Comment From Guest
Why shouldn’t I punt Net SB in a H2H league where OBP and SLG are categories? It seems like I should just load up on the slow sluggers

Paul Sporer: You are right. I would punt it, too.

Comment From Alan
Role with Baez as your only 2B and play for upside, or drop him for Utley, Prado, Odor, Semien, Gyorko, or J. Ramirez and limit downside? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think I’d get someone else. His power is immense, but I think the upside is being overrated because he isn’t magically going to stop striking out. Odor is my choice if you’re desperate for upside.

Comment From Ryan
My points league emphasizes R/RBI. I’m waiting at shortstop and catcher until late in the 12-team draft. Give me some guys that would be good to target.

Paul Sporer: Don’t boss me.

Paul Sporer: Grandal, Norris, Jaso; Crawford, Miller, and Kang.

Comment From Big Fan
You don’t have to post this, but I wanted to let you know that you’re an amazing addition to the Fangraphs team. I can’t get enough of the podcasts, and your articles are top notch. Thanks for giving us die hard fantasy players a leg up on the competition.

Paul Sporer: Like hell I’m not gonna post this! Thank you!!!

Comment From Jason
If I take Betts over Marte in a keeper league, OPS is 6th cat, am I crazy?

Paul Sporer: No, not crazy. I wouldn’t, but that’s just my valuation. I think it’s close enough to be done. Just a difference of valuation and it’s not like I hate Betts or anything

Comment From Southcoast
4×4 NL only. please discuss who you like out of B MCCarthy, Morrow B., and Brett Anderson. Also, do you really think B. Maurer, will get save opps with SD? Thanks,

Paul Sporer: McCarthy. He’s shown the ability to stay healthy way more than the other two with a 200 IP season last year. I don’t see a repeat, but I’m nervous about getting 100 from either of the other two. And yes, I think Maurer can get save opps. It’d most likely come from a Benoit injury as I don’t think he’ll be bad when he does pitch, but he’s old

Comment From Dude
Better end of roster stash- Gausman, Hahn, Bauer, Hammel, Rodon?

Paul Sporer: Hammel has a job and has excelled in two different seasons. There may be higher ceilings for others in that group, but he’s a cut above them for 2015 for me.

Comment From Jason
Do you think that the balance between pitching/defense and hitting should be “tweaked” to allow for more hitting? How would you do that? Would lowering the mound an inch or two be a realistic option?

Paul Sporer: I prefer that more than some of the other ideas like banning the shift. I’d be OK with juicing the balls up a little, too.

Comment From Curtis
Zach Walters pull 15 hrs and SS eligibility this year?

Paul Sporer: It could happen. The PT isn’t there right now, but it’s a looooong season. Worthy stash in hella deep leagues.

Comment From Clay Suchholz
Is Mookie Betts at pick 60 in a keeper league, OPS is 6th cat too high? I don’t want to miss him.

Paul Sporer: If you don’t wanna miss him, then take your guy. I wouldn’t take him that high and I’d like to think you could still pop him in the 75-85 range (since he’s usually going in 90s or early-100s)

Comment From IP
What’s your confidence level in Wacha’s shoulder and his ability to say go 180+ ip this year?

Paul Sporer: Pretty high. I’ve ranked him 20th among SPs.

Comment From meatballsfly
in H2H, i was in a 12 team mixed auction, and spent all my money on hitting, so i have trout, stanton, tulo, bautista, braun, and abreu, but my pitching is mchugh, hutchison, greene, house, cecil, giles, ottavino, graveman, wacha, walker, am i in trouble, or can my no pitcher money strategy work?

Paul Sporer: You’re not in trouble. You’ll just need to be SUPER active on the wire. At some point, you’ll wanna move some hitting, though. Winning HRs 19 to 7 every week (or whatever reasonable H2H numbers would be… I have low experience in that game compared to roto) is useless. But it’s easy to trade star bats

Comment From Duuuuuuuudaaaaaaaaa
Auction Calc using depth charts has Lucas Duda ranked around 34th overall in in a 5×5 OBP league! How high would you have him?

Paul Sporer: I don’t do a lot of overall ranks as I much prefer position by position, but that feels pretty high to me even for OBP.

Comment From another from the bar
Hello! A loyal podcast listener wants to know: I realize you love your Cecil, but I’d like a Toronto hedge. With Delabar (“from the bar,” I think?) sent down, would you maybe try Osuna? In a keeper AL league? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Miguel Castro, this hot young prospect who is looking to make the club.

Comment From Dave W
The Chicken and Waffle Cone at minute maid park looks amazing.

Comment From Dave W
https://pbs.twimg.com/media…

Paul Sporer: Oh shit.

Comment From adam
Fangraphs should add a predictive WAR projection for 2-3 years out

Paul Sporer: Send it up the flagpole! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Southcoast
I have read lots of favorable predictions for Fiers. How do you think he will do this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m quite high on him, too. It’s a command and control based approach as opposed to raw stuff, but I believe.

Comment From Ryguy
Other than top of draft players, who are some players you are “all in” this year?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From FantasyJaxon
I was just gunna ask about an O/U for ABs on Alcantara… which side would you take?

Paul Sporer: I really like him. He’s going to be a super-utility and basically any injury besides one to Montero instantly benefits AA. I think he can pop 500 PA at least.

Comment From john
Where does Guerrero get his chances in LA, given the current infield and their signing of olivera

Paul Sporer: He might just be a bench bat to start. Honestly, they might be best off working a trade to acquire some SP depth to cover Ryu, Anderson, and McCarthy (Anderson & McCarthy aren’t currently hurt, but…) because there’s no room at the inn. Otherwise, he’s gotta wait for injury.

Comment From Dominic
Re Alex Guerrero- How much value in dynasty leagues? Should he be owned in a league that rosters 180 minor leaguers? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: yes he should. he can negate an assignment to Triple-A so that could force a trade where he might actually get PT.

Comment From Nate
Who is the better prospect: Ryan Boldt who was a hyped prep bat or Nick Banks who seemed to come out of nowhere?

Paul Sporer: Are those real people?

Comment From Brad
In a 20 team league, is Teheran, Tillman, Bailey, Cobb, Hughes a good quintet to head my rotation? Or should I be looking to get a Hamels or Greinke type to anchor the rotation?

Paul Sporer: Teheran is a perfectly strong anchor. You’re absorbing some big risk with Cobb & Bailey, but if one pays off, you should be pretty good for your front-end. You’ll obviously need to hit on some later guys, but that’s gonna happen if you read thespguide.com 🙂

Comment From john
I agree with Shawn. Last year when the situation happened with Houston, I was ridiculed on these chats for supporting the Astros. Who’s laughing now?

Paul Sporer: You?

Comment From Victor
What kind of faith do you have that Dillon Tate can stay as a starter once he is drafted?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that person. I don’t have the bandwidth to really know guys who aren’t drafted yet.

Comment From Mo
If Tulo is gone, is Hanley a good pick at 15? thanks

Paul Sporer: If you want a volatile SS, sure! I’d prefer Desmond. 20-20 three straight years

Comment From Victorious
Any pitchers out there that you think might be one mechanical tweak away from truly breaking out?

Paul Sporer: I know I’m doing this a lot, but Doug Thorburn and I spent 2.5 months writing about everyone with this very thing in mind! thespguide.com

Comment From Ballpark_Frank
Is Matt Harvey all the way back? Im thinking about taking him in the 4th in a standard 5×5 12 team roto.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’ve put him in my top 15

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Who do you like better in a dynasty league, Yan Gomes or Travis D’Arnaud? Points league that punishes Ks.

Paul Sporer: Gomes for sure

Comment From Brock Sampson
What’s more likely: Chris Davis hits >40 home runs or Tulo has >600 PA?

Paul Sporer: Davis for sure!

Comment From Mike
Best website to go to for Dynasty advice?

Paul Sporer: http://dynasty-series.blogs…

Comment From Jim
Hey Paul, this 12-year-old in the local little league has great stuff. Should they move him to reliever?

Paul Sporer: yes, let him close this year and then shift him back after he has TJ at age-14

Comment From Mike
I have Ryu, Nova, and Cobb, and not much roster room, but I can’t DL any of them yet, because their teams haven’t legitimately DL’d them yet. I get waiting on Cobb and MAYBE Ryu, but seriously, Nova? When are they going to get officially put on the DL so I can pick up all these awesome guys you’ve mentioned?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s annoying af. If you get in a situation where you need the spot, you might just have to cut Nova. I don’t think they need to officially DL guys until the season starts.

Comment From sn4k3rjaker
Are you interested in Jace Peterson in an NL only league? What’s reasonable to expect this year?

Paul Sporer: Meh. He’s fine. It was a while back so here’s this:

12:59
Comment From Victor
What will Jace Peterson’s stats look like at season’s end?
1:00
Paul Sporer: .250 AVG, 5 HR, 25 SB

Comment From Matt
Final roster spot: A-Rod, Vargas, Teixeira, or Castellanos?

Paul Sporer: I really wanna say ARod, but I think Castellanos has enough upside to be the guy here. If it were just the three oldies, I’d say ARod.

Comment From Hughes the Force
Make me feel better about owning Baez and Miller. Do I need to get a backup in a really deep league… that rook Blue Jay guy, Panik and Jace “maybe he steals” Peterson.

Paul Sporer: I can’t with Baez. He just might not make enough contact to really be all that great fantasy-wise this year. I buy Miller, though. He had some issues last year, sure, but he was also a bit unlucky,too. I expect a much better effort this year.

Comment From Andy
Do you think OF will help Hanley stay on the field this year? Or will he miss his usual 30-ish games?

Paul Sporer: I could see it helping, but I’m still building in some missed time.

Comment From zonieinit
Thoughts on Odubel Herrera? Worth a late round flier?

Paul Sporer: A speed-only flier, definitely. He’s skipping Triple-A so there will be some bumps, but he’s old enough to make the transition without getting destroyed. *Could* be an AVG asset if it all breaks for him. But I’d expect .265 and 25 SBs at most right now.

Comment From Shawn
Michael Saunders a potential 20/10 guy if he doesn’t miss too much time?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. We’ve seen nearly 20-20 before. I’m with you on dropping the SBs, though, for the obvious reason of a knee injury keeping him out. But the power should be nice in that park!

Comment From Down South
How do you think Mejia and KRod will do as closers this year? WIll they be able to hang on to the role all year? Next year?

Paul Sporer: I think both will hold the roles all year, KRod more because of a lack of options behind him, but he won’t have an infinite leash and he does have a HR issue. I like Mejia more for short and long term. I wouldn’t bet on KRod beyond this year. Just don’t know.