Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/15
July 16, 2015
| 11:59 |
: We’re live. I know we’re starved for baseball, but just one more day. What’d y’all think of the Home Run Derby?
|
| 11:59 |
Pence or Puig ROS in OBP league? |
| 12:00 |
: Puig for me. Plus I think he’s coming at a relative discount right now.
|
| 12:00 |
Springer or JD Martinez ROS? |
| 12:00 |
: JDM and I think that’d be the case even if Springer were healthy
|
| 12:00 |
Keeper Trade: How much longer to you expect Garnder to be better offensively than Yelich. Obviously ROS this year, i think next year too, then it flips? |
| 12:00 |
: Yeah, I can see it playing out that way. Honestly, Yelich might take over in ’16, but for rest of ’15, I’m with Gardner
|
| 12:00 |
Josh Donaldson. Continue or Collapse? Should i look to sell high? |
| 12:01 |
: Continue, but you shouldn’t be averse to selling high
|
| 12:01 |
Is this a fair deal? Which side do you like better ROS? Carlos Gomez + Daniel Murphy for Chapman + Lorenzo Cain + Kendrick |
| 12:01 |
: i think the Gomez-Murphy is better overall, but I’d take the other side if saves were a sharp need
|
| 12:01 |
I know you love Avisail Garcia but would you consider dropping him for Plouffe if you’re worried about Freeman’s return? |
| 12:01 |
: I wouldn’t hate that. I do like Avisail, but I recognize he may take a little to be a consistent producer
|
| 12:02 |
Thoughts on a possible innings limit for any of the CLEV SP? Seems like Bauer, Salazar, and possibly Carrasco could all be in line for that. |
| 12:03 |
: Bauer had a 199 last year, Salazar had 171. Carrasco only had 134, but he’s also 28 and has logged big totals in the past. I dont’ worry about any of them right now
|
| 12:03 |
Paul Sporer- The Brock Holt of Fangraphs |
| 12:03 |
: Woo, I’m an All-Star!! But everyone mocks me
|
| 12:03 |
Jeremy Hellickson’s K/9 jumped from 6.2 before June 1 to 9.7 after June 1 which coincided with him nearly eliminating his sinker. He has a 2.96 SIERA over the last 30 days. Are you buying him as a potential second half breakout? |
| 12:04 |
: I recently noticed that, too, tbh. I almost discussed him on Tuesday’s pod. I’m a little skeptical, but I’m going to investigate the surge
|
| 12:04 |
Best home run derby ever going to 4 minutes worked out great ..prob could go to three minutes in later rounds was the most exciting all star event in history |
| 12:04 |
: Agreed. Said the exact same on the Tuesday pod.
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| 12:04 |
Soler or Pederson RoS in a redraft? |
| 12:04 |
: Pederson, but it’s close
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| 12:04 |
P-Spor (can I call you that?), I’m looking to buy Kris Bryant in a keep 5 league. I figure the only chance I have is by overpaying. Does an offer of Rendon, Brantley and Syndergaard get it done? Am I being foolish? Should I wait until Rendon is back in the line up or can I try this already? |
| 12:04 |
: That would constitute foolish. I realize you’ll have to overpay, but at some point it gets to be too much and you found the too much point
|
| 12:05 |
I’ve gotten very little production from 1B this year. I just grabbed Chris Carter, so who do you think my best bet will be between him, Trumbo, Brandon Moss and Adam Laroche? Or should I be looking elsewhere all together? |
| 12:05 |
: Moss
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| 12:05 |
Matt Harrison – think he’ll offer any 12-team AL only roto value in second half and/or next year? |
| 12:05 |
: Ehh, I’d be surprised. We’re three years from his last quality work and he’s thrown 32 IP in those three seasons.
|
| 12:05 |
Starting De La Rosa tomorrow in San Diego? |
| 12:05 |
: Jorge? Sure. I really don’t know which DLR, though
|
| 12:06 |
Thought I would hate the HR Derby, so I didn’t watch until the final round, I regret my decision. |
| 12:06 |
: Yeah, you at least gotta go DVR with it just in case. I was excited for the new format and it played well!
|
| 12:06 |
Is McHugh droppable in 12-teamers or are there signs hes more than a streamer? |
| 12:06 |
: Solid since SEA ripped him. I’d *at least* stream him in that format, but he’s definitely on the cusp of being an all-time starter. I think he irons it out for a nice 2H
|
| 12:07 |
If Clay Buchholz has his rotation spot filled by Brian Johnson, does that make him Bon Scott? |
| 12:07 |
: I don’t get that. Sorry.
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| 12:07 |
Harper / Frazier for Posey / Blackmon / Cruz / Matt Harvey – which side would you want? |
| 12:07 |
: Wow, that’s a HUGE deal. I actually think the quantity is pretty good. I usually prefer the best guy in the deal, but this is good for both sides with a slight lean toward the quantity
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| 12:07 |
Sporer doesn’t need Eno for the podcast and then takes his chat spot. #PowerPlay |
| 12:08 |
Are comments on articles down for everyone? Or is it just a problem for me? |
| 12:08 |
: Lemme look
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| 12:08 |
: I’m working over here
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| 12:08 |
When would you expect Syndergaard to get shutdown? |
| 12:09 |
: Don’t know that he gets flat-out shutdown, but rather massaged throughout to make it to the finish line.
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| 12:09 |
considering trading for Kluber in a keeper league. Kluber wouldn’t be kept by me. worth trading betts ($13), pederson ($20), or springer ($10) for him? |
| 12:10 |
: I trust you have a strong SP need? I wouldn’t just trade them for Kluber for fun, but as long as I need a stud arm, I’d do it. I’d prefer to give Springer since he’s not playing and ideally you’re contending
|
| 12:10 |
Redraft league- Correa/Longo too much for Puig? I have Tulo/Bryant at SS & 3B now and could use a power hitting OF |
| 12:11 |
: It’s a lot, but the context of you not starting either of them (although I assume they are in your MI and CI?) makes it easier to do. Honestly though, I think you need to get a little something with Puig there, even in a redraft
|
| 12:11 |
likleyhood that one or both of springer and stanton dont return this year? |
| 12:11 |
: i’d be pretty surprised
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| 12:11 |
I have a chance to trade for Latos or Cashner in dynasty at a decent price. Who you prefer this year and long term? Categories QS/K/ERA/WHIP. also I who would you prefer to deal for them, Moss or P. Alvarez. OBP league. thanks! |
| 12:12 |
: I prefer to keep Cashner. I prefer Moss as an acquisition
|
| 12:12 |
Best guess at B. Hamilton OBP and Ellsbury SB ROS. |
| 12:12 |
: .285 OBP, 20 SBs
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| 12:12 |
Do you see a solid second half from Kole Calhoun or the same average production? |
| 12:13 |
: Maybe a couple ticks better, but not enough to be substantially different than his 1H
|
| 12:13 |
No pitching available in my AL-only league so I had to trade for Ubaldo and Hutchison. I’m terrified. Should I be bracing for the worst, or could they possibly turn in good second halves? |
| 12:14 |
: Ubaldo is avoiding the walks and looks good. Hutch is a total wildcard. I’d actually be more afraid of Hutch right now, oddly enough
|
| 12:14 |
Is the high BABIP sustainable for Kipnis ROS? Or are we looking at more of a .280 hitter? |
| 12:15 |
: Maybe not at .369, but we’ve seen him drop a full season of .345 so it’s not out of the realm. He’s a line drive hitter with some decent speed. I’d bet on a .300 or so AVG before I’d bet on a power spike
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| 12:15 |
Should the Mets go out and get some help or just see what the team they’ve assembled can do? |
| 12:15 |
: Gotta get some hitting. It’s too bad.
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| 12:15 |
Whats your take on Banuelos and Gausman for the rest of 2015 and then beyond….. |
| 12:16 |
: Banuelos needs to stay upright. That’s really been his issue throughout. The talent is good. I’d be willing to gamble, but the health is tough. Gausman is someone I adore talent-wise, but the yo-yoing of him between the pen and rotation has definitely impacted him. if they just leave him in the rotation rest of way, I’m in
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| 12:16 |
You are the high man on Panik. What do you see him doing ROS? |
| 12:18 |
: Not too dissimilar from his 1H where nothing jumps out as elite, but the whole pack adds up to a plus player. Maybe 5 HRs, .285 AVG, 35 R, 30 RBI
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| 12:18 |
I’ve grown to accept and like you Paul. |
| 12:18 |
: Sweet
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| 12:18 |
Is Kinsler in your top 2 second baseman rest of season? |
| 12:18 |
: He’s never been in my top 2. But we just did the 2B ranks yesterday
|
| 12:18 |
Kipnis/Jace Peterson or Jose Reyes/Travis. All players can be kept. No restrictions |
| 12:19 |
: Prefer to the Kip side.
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| 12:19 |
Sano doesn’t seem to be getting the kind of love as some of the other call-ups. Do you think he hits another 10-12 homers this year? What do you think of him beyond this year? |
| 12:19 |
: I’m a fan – http://www.rotowire.com/blo…
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| 12:19 |
Scribner or Pomeranz if Clippard goes? |
| 12:20 |
: I’m a Pomeranz fan, but I’m not sure they let him close. I’d go Mujica as a wildcard option
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| 12:20 |
Tyson or Joe Ross in keeper league? |
| 12:20 |
: Still Tyson, but both Ross brothers are damn good pitchers
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| 12:20 |
What do you make of Matt Moore ROS and next year? hang on for now? |
| 12:21 |
: I’ve been out for ’15 from the jump. Just don’t expect anything of note in the TJ return espec. since command and control are the last pieces to return and he never really had much in the way of those two things to begin with
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| 12:21 |
Should i expect Cruz to continue his success against lefties ? Is a plug and play in dfs vs lefties till he faulters? |
| 12:22 |
: Nelson Cruz? Absolutely. He’s raked lefties for years.
|
| 12:22 |
Any news come out over the past week in regards to when Berrios will be called up? I don’t want to have to wait much longer! |
| 12:22 |
: Nope. Still unsure. Could be any time really. He is their last stud prospect to get called up this year and pitching is their biggest need
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| 12:22 |
Who says no … JD Martinez and Price for Joc Pederson? |
| 12:22 |
: Hopefully the guy offering the two Tigers. That’s too much for Joc and I’m a huge Joc fan
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| 12:22 |
You’re my favorite writer Paul. Could I get an ROS on DeSclafani? Also, as a Tigers fan, is David Price in a DET uniform next season? |
| 12:24 |
: Thanks! I’m skeptical about Price returning right now, I think it kinda depends how the season plays out. Handicapping right now, I’d say 35%. DeSclafani is likely to be similar to his 1H with some of the inconsistency we’ve seen. Maybe a little better if he can avoid the blow up start, but mostly the same
|
| 12:24 |
Who are some guys you think are in line for a big 2nd half? Hitters or Pitchers |
| 12:24 |
: Did a whole pod on pitchers. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… Not sure on hitters yet. I haven’t done a full breakdown. Maybe the guys I’m higher in the rankings would be my standout potentials
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| 12:24 |
Any update on Latos’s injury? I need to set my roster soon for the long week. |
| 12:25 |
: Nothing different than expected to return this weekend.
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| 12:25 |
Dexter Fowler or Gregory Polanco as a bench bat? |
| 12:26 |
: Wow didn’t realize Fowler has been trash for three months. I’ll go Polanco because he has more upside and they’re otherwise doing the same thing
|
| 12:26 |
Any signs that G Polanco will have a breakout 2nd half? Or is he more of a hold until 2016? |
| 12:27 |
: Nothing screams breakout in the numbers so while he could, it’d be unexpected. There’d be some previously unforeseen change
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| 12:27 |
Deep AL only, I’m short on pitching. Is JD too rich for either Pineda or Carrasco? And of those two, who do you like more? |
| 12:28 |
: I’d go for Carrasco. I’d push to get a little something with the pitcher for JDM, but if my trade partner balked, I think I’d still do a 1-for-1 there.
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| 12:28 |
Thoughts on Yahoo’s new DFS? Have you tried it out? |
| 12:28 |
: Haven’t tried it yet. Will dive in post ASB
|
| 12:29 |
Paul, you’re the freakin’ man. Any thoughts on Brian Johnson going forward? Looks like he has some impressive minor league numbers, but nobody seems too hyped on him. |
| 12:34 |
: Thanks! Johnson is more of a solid-if-unspectacular guy. He could catch fire and surprise, but he’s more likely to be just OK. (low-4.00s kinda work)
|
| 12:35 |
Hi Paul! Fantasy question here…I’m in first in an H2H league, standard cats except for QS/OBP replacing W/AVG. I’ve been offered Sonny Gray (not keepable) for my Miguel Sano (keepable for three years at a 17th rounder, 15th, and 13th each year. My team is already pretty strong but Gray would be a big addition. I’m just worried that Gray regresses to a 3.00 ERA or so while Sano busts out sometime in the future. Thoughts on whether this is fair value for him? I have one available keeper slot for Sano with my others tied up but I could opt to just keep Cueto at an 8th instead. Thanks! |
| 12:35 |
: Focus on ’15. You’re in 1st, but nothing is promised after a half in first. I like Sano, a lot in fact, but Gray is still a much better asset for ’15. Even if he regresses to a solid 3.00 ERA pitcher, that’s still a LOT of good IP. I think you gotta do it
|
| 12:35 |
In a dynasty league, would you trade Keuchel for Soler? Maybe I need to ask for more? |
| 12:36 |
: Similar to a deal we covered earlier in the chat wherein you could ask for more without being a punk, but if your trade partner wouldn’t budge and he/she said it’s gotta be this 1-for-1, then you could do it.
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| 12:36 |
Hey Paul, what side ya got: Blackmon for Sano, Familia, Gallo. 12-team redraft |
| 12:37 |
: I can take the trio there, even in redraft.
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| 12:37 |
If Chapman gets moved, does Cingrani become the main 8th inning guy? |
| 12:39 |
: Perhaps when healthy. That pen is a mess without Chapman, though
|
| 12:39 |
AC/DC singers Paul, sheesh |
| 12:39 |
: Ah, not in my purview musically.
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| 12:39 |
Sorry to hear about Curtis, Paul. I enjoyed the pics you always posted of him on Instagram. Growing up I had a Beagle that we lost after 8 years. No need to post this, just wanted to give my condolences. |
| 12:39 |
: Thanks, Shawn, I really appreciate it
|
| 12:40 |
Why on earth is Oswaldo Arcia still in the minor leagues? He’s crushing it. |
| 12:40 |
: Not really sure. Doubt he lasts down there, though. I’m an Arcia fan
|
| 12:40 |
when’s the right time to pick up berrios? would you drop chavez, e. ramirez or karns for him now? |
| 12:41 |
: I really don’t know. Predicting call-ups is legitimately impossible without being in a front office. I wouldn’t drop any of those for him, thoguh
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| 12:41 |
You called Carson Smith taking the job long before it was fashionable, so I’m gonna hit you with a number closer speculation question. Best shot at saves ROS: Siegrest, R. Soriano, Tazawa, Hawkins? |
| 12:42 |
: Sieg if Rosy is hurt. So stay tuned there for sure. Hawkins probably has the best shot at just getting raw saves regardless of performance surrounding them, but my top pick is Tazawa in anticipation of a Uehara trade
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| 12:42 |
Thoughts on D. Hutchison ROS? Awful ERA, solid FIP |
| 12:43 |
: Total wildcard, IMO. Still learning on the job clearly as he’s basically an inverse of his ’14. Could click and go on a run, but the risk is substantial, still.
|
| 12:43 |
Any projections or thoughts on Heaney ROS. He is a top ________ pitcher ROS |
| 12:45 |
: Not sure on the top ___th pitcher yet as I haven’t done my midseason SP ranks, but Heaney is good. The hype all died after his lame 29 IP last year, but that’s good for sure because he was easy to acquire this year. Obviously he will regress from a 1.32, but he could reasonably be a 3.32 the rest of the way without any sort of crazy leaps in skill. I’d project him closer to 3.75, but low-to-mid 3.00s is in play. a good upside gamble.
|
| 12:45 |
should i look to add an OFer? have Soler Gardner and Maybin with Stanton and Springer on the Dl and was offered Pollock for Odorizzi |
| 12:45 |
: That’s a good deal, so I’d be OK doing it. you’re down two VERY good OFs already with Soler having already missed time to injury and Maybin hardly being a bastion of health himself so yeah I’d be keen on getting another OF and Pollock rules
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| 12:45 |
Thoughts on Jeff Samardzija for the second half? He’s quoted saying he was pressing early with a new team, but it certainly didn’t seem to be an issue with the A’s last year. Looks like a different pitch mix than in the past, throwing the cutter a lot more than the two-seamer. Do you buy into his recent success from the last month or so? |
| 12:46 |
: I do buy his recent success. Huge on him coming into the season and haven’t really wavered there (though it’s been easier with the improved performance). He was in the 9 pitchers I really like for the 2H podcast, too
|
| 12:46 |
Crawford for Chris Davis? Need 1B (Freeman DL) with Sano at SS |
| 12:46 |
: That’s a good deal
|
| 12:46 |
Brad Miller or Elvis Andrus in an OBP league? |
| 12:46 |
: Miller
|
| 12:46 |
deshields or gose ros? |
| 12:46 |
: DeShields
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| 12:47 |
Would you rather have Lance Lynn or Jordan Zimmerman ROS? Is Billy Hamilton enough or too much to get either of them? |
| 12:47 |
: Lynn. Not as long as you have other SBs or enough SBs from Hamilton that you won’t lose a ton of points without him
|
| 12:47 |
What potential team gives Hamels the biggest fantasy boost? |
| 12:47 |
: Dodgers
|
| 12:47 |
I just keep getting a white screen that says “There was a problem processing your comment” |
| 12:47 |
: That’s weird. Have you restarted your browser?
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| 12:47 |
Man I love Watermelon. So good. |
| 12:48 |
: Solid 55-60 grade fruit
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| 12:48 |
Where is Jacoby Ellsbury worth the most, being traded away or kept? |
| 12:50 |
: Likely being traded away. I heard someone comp him to Johnny Damon the other day and that seems perfect from a statistical standpoint. Maybe Johnny Damon with lesser health is a better way to say it
|
| 12:50 |
Please rank ROS: Shoemaker, Peavy, Velasquez, Chavez, Nelson, Jungmann. Thanks! |
| 12:51 |
: Chavez, Nelson, Peavy, Shoemaker, VV, Jungmann, I think… subject to change upon further investigation when I post my SP ranks
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| 12:51 |
Do you see Ryan Zimmerman being useful ROS? |
| 12:51 |
: I’m skeptical. Injuries in a player’s base can sap his power and plantar fasciitis is a bish. It just worries me a lot as a nagging injury
|
| 12:51 |
Why isn’t anyone expecting a second half bounceback from Cano? |
| 12:54 |
: Seems everyone but me is – http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… But honestly, a bounceback to what? Yankees-era Cano isn’t coming back. If he bounces back to last year, that’s fine, but far from special and probably needs an OBP league to maximized. I just think after 1034 PA in Seattle, we have to accept he’s a different player. Maybe not the slug he was in the 1H, but we also learned that there were some medical issues tied to it and i’m not sure those are cured
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| 12:54 |
Should Padres deal jupton ? And if so who is likely to grab him? |
| 12:55 |
: They can still make a run, so I don’t necessarily think they should, but maybe it’s more of a retooling trade where they move him for something that helps this year. Perhaps a useful MI or 3B. Not sure who’d get him, tbh
|
| 12:55 |
Where does Olivera play when he comes up, doesn’t seem like the Dodgers have a spot for him at this point. Do you think they’ll keep him down in the minors rest of the seaosn becuase of that? |
| 12:57 |
: Great question, but who really knows? They’re so stacked with talent that it seems like it’ll take injuries for some of these guys to break in, like Olivera or Seager. Or of course Guerrero who still lingers. Maybe his age helps him since Olivera is already 30. If he keeps raking, I could see him by passing Seager for the call with Turner moving to SS to take some of Rollins’ PT
|
| 12:57 |
Let’s say Papelbon, F Rod & Chapman are all traded. Please rank their replacements along with Soria and Clippard (2 closers I own). |
| 12:57 |
: Soria, Giles, Clippard, MIL, CIN
|
| 12:57 |
Drop Lackey Gio McHugh or Moore (who could be kept next year) for Heaney, who could also be kept for next year? |
| 12:57 |
: Moore.
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| 12:57 |
When will I Be Back? #crushingAAA |
| 12:57 |
: Sooooon!
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| 12:57 |
:
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| 12:57 |
Hey Paul, deep points league and need to solidify back end of my rotation. Going forward, can you rank Beachy, Jungman, Montgomery, Banuelos, and Brian Johnson? |
| 12:58 |
: Monty, Banuelos, Jungmann, BJ, Beachy
|
| 12:58 |
One more question if you don’t mind…I want to start a full (keep entire roster) dynasty with full farm, the works |
| 12:58 |
: OK, I’ll let you.
|
| 12:58 |
Do you think its in the Tigers best interest to trade who they can and retool on the fly? It seems as if there’s too many holes to fill with out gutting an already bottom of the barrel farm system. Plus missing the playoffs might help by letting our aging stars rest for a winter. |
| 1:00 |
: Can’t sell 3.5 out with this team composition. Even the 9 game deficit in the division is attainable. They’re far from perfect, but they’re still only a bullpen arm or two from really competing, especially if Feliz somehow pans out. In theory, I understand why some suggest they should sell, but in practice, I just don’t see it
|
| 1:00 |
10 team keeper league: trade Gallo (on my farm and 6 years control) and the #1 pick next year (my #8 overall pick this year was Gio Gonzalez, hope next year will be #10) for Hanley (1.5 years control). What do you think? |
| 1:01 |
: flags fly forever. even with shoulder looking like it might be a major thing, Hanley has still easily been the best SS in baseball (fantasy-wise, obv since he doesn’t actually play SS)
|
| 1:02 |
Hey Paul, Where do you see the Mets finishing this season? Will they get a wild card? |
| 1:02 |
: I picked them for a WC at the start of the season and I’m sticking with it
|
| 1:02 |
Watched Verlander’s last start… touched 97 with a tight breaking ball, does he still have a chance to be a good amount of what he once was? |
| 1:04 |
: Yeah I mean, to hear folks bury him is a sure sign that they’ve watched very little of him in the past year-plus. He’s clearly not what he was at peak, but the stuff still shows and when he’s commanding it, he can be very good. He’s no longer a frontliner (sub-3.00s) and I’d be surprised he returned to that level for any significant amount of time (several months), but he can be a firm mid-rotation (mid-3.00s) with spurts of greatness. health has been the biggest factor here. he didn’t just lose his ability to pitch
|
| 1:04 |
Pablo Sandoval or Plouffe ROS? |
| 1:04 |
: Plouffe
|
| 1:06 |
Innings capped league, roll with Kyle Hendricks or stash Nola? |
| 1:07 |
: Hendricks
|
| 1:07 |
Can Rubby still deliver on his potential this season or is it time to move on? |
| 1:08 |
: With a .958 OPS v. LH, I think he’s a stream guy against righty-heavy lineups only right now
|
| 1:08 |
Who is the one hitter that you feel will have a great 2nd half who would be categorized as a ‘buy low’ right now? |
| 1:11 |
: Does Brandon Belt count? He’s actually been pretty good, I guess, but I don’t think he really costs much since it’s 1B. I could see him hitting 15 HRs in 2H
|
| 1:11 |
Thoughts on Dozier and a CI sweetner for Bumgarner? 5×5 Roto, 16 teamer. I’m in serious need of MI help, and I’m sweeping pitching. With the trade though I’d be left really thin with Archer, Syndergaard, Anibal Sanchez and a bunch of streamers. I’m in second place right now. Thinking about Dozier’s second half decline in 2014… |
| 1:13 |
: Career is only 20 points lower on OPS for his 2Hs career-wise. He wasn’t really THAT bad in the 2H of last year, just that the HRs went from 18 to 5. the 6% HR/FB was the big reason, skills were solid otherwise. I’d do that deal
|
| 1:13 |
One more question if you don’t mind…I’m wanting to start a full dynasty (keep entire roster!) with full farm, the works. Any tips on the best way to incorporate contracts with the entire roster being kept? Thanks again! |
| 1:14 |
: I feel like those objectives run counter to each other. If it’s dynasty, you keep without contracts. If you want contracts, it’s more of a keeper league, where you have to make cuts
|
| 1:14 |
Roto 5×5, 5-player keeper – Marte and Bumgarner for Trout. Too much? But…but…it’s a chance to get Trout… |
| 1:14 |
: No, that’s probably the required fare to get Trout, as it should be
|
| 1:14 |
Anything to see in Adam Morgan? |
| 1:15 |
: Ehhhhh, probably not. He was a one-time prospect and he is just 25, but it looks pretty fringy. Living on a 94% LOB rate right now
|
| 1:15 |
Boston is projected to play better in second half…do you think I should target Han ram or mookie? |
| 1:15 |
: Mookie
|
| 1:15 |
Do you have a problem with acquiring a guy you gave up for next to nothing six months ago for more now? Or is it all about value |
| 1:15 |
: All about value. The market changes and you should be willing to as well. I disliked guys in draft season that I’m now seeking out in trade (MadBum for example).
|
| 1:15 |
Hypothetical Situation – An elite once-in-a-generation player will sign with your team at league minimum for a ridiculous amount of time, but wants the power to change the team name, jerseys, pretty much everything. Do you say yes? Which MLB teams would say no? |
| 1:16 |
: Very interesting hypothetical. I don’t know that I’d say because controlling all of that would take away from his game.
|
| 1:16 |
Montero’s hurt and Schwarber’s been mashing. Make the switch now before the rest of the league scrambles to the waiver wire or hold tight with Montero? |
| 1:16 |
: If you have a chance to get Schwarber, do it now while there’s a chance folks aren’t really paying attention bc of the break
|
| 1:17 |
apperently my questions don’t pass the eye test I’m outta here |
| 1:17 |
: Whattya mean?
|
| 1:17 |
: I’ve answered all the questions to the point of your comment, so if you sent one, it was answered
|
| 1:17 |
Would you be shopping Stanton now or do you think the power will return immediately when he does and best bet is to hold right now? |
| 1:17 |
: It really depends what you can get. I’m fine shopping him, but you’re selling low just by the virtue of the fact that he’s injured. I’d probably just hold personally
|
| 1:17 |
Any reason for optimism regarding Kris Medlen when he returns? |
| 1:18 |
: Sure, I mean he is a talented pitcher and it’s not like you CAN’T return from 2 TJs. Could be a lotta five-and-dives on KC, though. He’s on the perfect team bc they don’t need him going 6-7 with any regularity bc of their pen
|
| 1:18 |
Who could the pirates add that makes them serious WS contenders? |
| 1:19 |
: I think they are serious contenders as-is, tbh. Any deadline improvements would be on the fringes. bullpen arm here, bench bat there, that kinda stuff. Pittsburgh is v. good.
|
| 1:19 |
Team who I could help win this year, keeper league with inflation…I give Freeman, McCutch, Lynn, A Wood (all FA to be) and O Herrera for Tomas, Chapman and Thor, fair? |
| 1:20 |
: No, you need more back. Even with them becoming FAs, you’re still giving a TON. Your big returns are both pitchers and they’re terrifying to keep. I want a better centerpiece hitter over Tomas.
|
| 1:20 |
Is there anything that might suggest that Carlos Santana will have a good second half? or is it sell time with him |
| 1:21 |
: I remain a fan and actually almost said him for that guy who asked for a 2H buy low breakout. Skills aren’t terribly different from last year except the power is a big lower. he could regain that pop and still reach 25 Hrs
|
| 1:22 |
Do you think Ian Kennedy can cure his homeritis and have a productive 2nd half? |
| 1:23 |
: Cure it? No. It’s been a long-term issue for him. But push it down some? Sure. HRs are the devil for pitchers, though, so it’s still a risk. He could realistically cut the volume of HRs, but see little difference in results if the HRs he’s giving up are still more than solos. It can’t be this bad for another half, but I still think we might only get like a 3.60 ERA
|
| 1:23 |
Looking to sell M Sano in a 1 year keeper league where he can be kept next season as a 23rd round pick. What would be a decent return for him? Position doesn’t matter. |
| 1:24 |
: That’s REALLY difficult to answer. A gillion factors are in play, the most important of which is whether or not you’re contending. I’d probably just hang onto him, tbh
|
| 1:24 |
Who do you like ROS and long term in a points league, Flores, Schoop, Odor? |
| 1:24 |
: Odor
|
| 1:24 |
Thanks Paul. appreciate you letting us nerds pick your brain…… |
| 1:24 |
: No problem!
|
| 1:24 |
Who should be some of the Mets targets, approaching the NW Deadline |
| 1:24 |
: Milwaukee’s hitters
|
| 1:24 |
severino or hoffman? |
| 1:25 |
: Sev.
|
| 1:25 |
What is your belief in Arismendy Alcantara? |
| 1:26 |
: Still pretty high long-term. He’s doing alright in AAA (although he cooled just before the break). The Zobrist Swiss Army Knife comparisons are apt, though I’d say he has a lower AVG ceiling right now with a higher speed ceiling when comparing to prime Zobrist
|
| 1:26 |
Brian Johnson replaced Bon Scott as lead singer of AC/DC. |
| 1:26 |
: I need to bone up on classic rock, I guess.
|
| 1:27 |
Career WAR: Rodon or Springer? |
| 1:27 |
: Springer
|
| 1:27 |
Better ROS and/or better 2016: Wood or Quintana |
| 1:27 |
: Q
|
| 1:27 |
I have Grandal and Schwarber in an 11-team keep-forever. When/if Schwarber is called up, who do I keep and who do I trade? |
| 1:27 |
: I’m a huge Grandal guy. If Schwarber is catching, I do believe that can stunt the bat some as teams want Cs to focus on handling the staff even at the expense of some bat production.
|
| 1:27 |
Sano is a man child |
| 1:27 |
Do you like the idea of buying Miggy for the playoffs in a H2H league? And how much is too much to give up at 1B? |
| 1:28 |
: Yes, I do because I think he’ll be great upon returning. However, you gotta be careful not to pay so much that you don’t make the playoffs altogether
|
| 1:28 |
Who gets traded first: Papelbon, K-Rod, or Clippard? |
| 1:28 |
: Pap
|
| 1:28 |
Who is the best player the Mets can acquire for Jon Niese and one of their non-elite top 100 prospects? (Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki, Dom Smith, etc…) |
| 1:29 |
: Aramis? I’m not sure Niese is bringing in a game-changer
|
| 1:29 |
What are your expectations for Matt Wisler ROS? Usable in a 12 team mixed league? |
| 1:31 |
: He could be, but that’d be if things break right for him. I think just a streamer in those leagues
|
| 1:31 |
Who do you prefer for ROS, Taylor Jungmann or Matt Moore and would you drop either for Ken Giles in anticipation of a Papelbon trade? |
| 1:31 |
: Jungmann. I would if i needed SVs badly
|
| 1:31 |
My 2 cents: loved the derby, 4 minutes would be ideal |
| 1:31 |
Rollins or Zobrist ROS? |
| 1:31 |
: Z
|
| 1:31 |
What are your thoughts on Cain and Corbin ROS? |
| 1:32 |
: Matt Cain I presume since we’re talking SPs. Those two are close. I think Corbin will have flashes of ’13, but w/only a half left, it only takes a couple of clunkers to tank an ERA and he’s going to have them as every TJ returnee does so I’ll lean Cain ROS
|
| 1:32 |
Drop A. Russell who can be kept for next year only for a non-keepable Odor? |
| 1:33 |
: Depends on your contention status. I like Odor, but I don’t know that his ROS is worth Russell ROS+2016
|
| 1:33 |
Where do you see the innings limit being set for T. Walker? Seems that with the team out of it, and coming off an injury plagued season, he’s a prime candidate to be shut down |
| 1:34 |
: Maybe if they are out of it come September, but their fate can change on a dime still and he could be a huge key. They probably have another 60 IP for him which could get us to the finish line
|
| 1:35 |
Is Melky someone who may have a nice bounceback 2H? Seems to be hitting much better in the past 30-45 days |
| 1:36 |
: Yes, that’s a fantastic name for a buy-low 2H guy. I loved him coming into the season and he’s been a nightmare, but rebounding of late as you suggest. Last calendar month: .879 OPS, .330 AVG with 3 HR and 14 RBIs
|
| 1:36 |
Does Jim Johnson get traded with Vizcaino taking over? |
| 1:36 |
: I can definitely see it.
|
| 1:36 |
“Going for it” in a keeper league: give McCullers and Strickland, get Anibal and AJ Ramos? |
| 1:36 |
: Love that even if you weren’t going for it, TBH
|
| 1:37 |
Hey Paul. Will you rank these MI options for the ROS in an OBP league: Odor, DeShields Jr, Andrus and Segura. Thanks! |
| 1:37 |
: Flip Andrus and Segura
|
| 1:37 |
Best site for Keeper leagues is???? |
| 1:37 |
: they’ve all got their plusses and minuses, but I like CBS
|
| 1:37 |
FYI Banuelos will hit his innings limit in another ~30 IP. Might move to the bullpen before that. |
| 1:38 |
: They put a firm limit on him? I missed that. That definitely changes some of my Banuelos hyping from earlier questions
|
| 1:38 |
Where do you think Dustin Pedroia slots in when he comes back? Is he worth trying to trade because of his name value? |
| 1:38 |
: In the batting order? back at 1 or 2 for sure.
|
| 1:39 |
Doing a podcast by yourself has to be REALLY tough. Keep up the good work! Next time your stuck alone, what if you did a podcast like a chat – fans submit questions you answer rapid fire? What do you think Rendon’s line will be ROS? |
| 1:39 |
: I considered getting a bunch of Qs from listeners for the solocast, so I will do that next time I roll solo
|
| 1:39 |
What’s going on with Colabello’s playing time or lack of it in Toronto/ |
| 1:40 |
: Just a lot of mouths to feed there and he’s Chris Colabello so he doesn’t exactly have clout to play every game even over guys like Smoak and Valencia
|
| 1:40 |
Do you think Montas stays up after their doubleheader? |
| 1:41 |
: Maaaaybe, though he might just be a pen arm for them this year
|
| 1:41 |
Give up Carlos Martinez and Michael Brantley for Gerritt Cole and Lorenzo Cain? |
| 1:41 |
: That’s hot. I’d say the slump is busted. :sunglassesemoji:
|
| 1:41 |
Who says no: Yelich for JD Martinez, real life? |
| 1:42 |
: IRL probably the Marlins, but I don’t think the Tigers want to trade JDM at all right now. So maybe both clubs
|
| 1:42 |
In a keep forever which five would you choose: Bryant, Sano, Correa, Sale, Syndergaard, Cole, Rendon, Freeman, Donaldson? |
| 1:43 |
: Bryant or Correa. Really close between them. I favor hitters in this kind of scenario and then Bryant & Correa not only have the overwhelming talent, but also filling a prime position
|
| 1:43 |
Do we see K Schwarber at any point before September? |
| 1:43 |
: Probably, but who really knows?
|
| 1:43 |
Is Ian Kennedy this bad? |
| 1:43 |
: Not *this* bad, but HRs have always been an issue so this is just the running bad version of that.
|
| 1:43 |
What do you expect the rest of the year from Ian Desmond? |
| 1:44 |
: I feel like he can’t possibly stay this bad, but maybe he’s just really hurt and trying to play through bc of a contract year? it’s insane how bad he’s been
|
| 1:44 |
Hey Paul. Made this trade this morning: I gave Heaney and Posey for Lucroy and Pineda. Redraft league, pretty standard scoring. Who wins?? Thanks |
| 1:44 |
: That’s a pretty even up deal. I’m expecting LuCroy to bounce back and I love Pineda so I can get behind it even though you gave the best player
|
| 1:44 |
Does Rodney hang up the quiver after this year when his contract expires? |
| 1:45 |
: Unless someone hits him with a “I just can’t turn this down” offer, then yes
|
| 1:45 |
What do you think about the long term prospects for Ruby De La Rosa? |
| 1:46 |
: Still quite high. He needs to figure out lefties, but his changeup has some promise
|
| 1:46 |
ROS on Deshields please |
| 1:47 |
: Maybe 230ish PA of what we saw in the first half? I like him
|
| 1:47 |
Corey Seager for Jorge Soler in dynasty fair? |
| 1:47 |
: Yes it’s fair. I want Soler
|
| 1:47 |
Better RoS points league, V-Mart or Pujols? |
| 1:47 |
: Still Pujols, but I think VMart will be huge in 2H
|
| 1:47 |
Kyle Hendricks and C.J. Cron. Do you like either for the 2H? |
| 1:48 |
: Hendricks could be this year’s Shoemaker in that he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but when his command and control are on, it works and works well.
|
| 1:48 |
: Cron could be a decent power source, but I think the 406 PA we’ve seen to date are more or less what we’re going to get
|
| 1:48 |
The Joc for the two Tigers trade was a real baseball question! The Tigers can only keep JD relatively cheap for two more years, while they could keep Joc cheap for 5 more years. So in essence .. Price for 3 cheap years of Joc |
| 1:49 |
: That’d be something else if they pulled that kind of massive deal at the deadline. i think LAD might say no, though
|
| 1:49 |
when do you decide to throw in the towel in a keeper? im 7th place in an al only w 56 pts and the top 3 have 80 80 70. my team is decent but has underperformed. not sure when/if to start selling |
| 1:51 |
: You gotta go through the standings and try to get a realistic handle on how many points you can gain if your guys just play well. Not ELITE and well above expectations, but just play well. If you only see 7-8 attainable points barring MAJOR changes or performance surges then you can start to shift focus toward next year. But if you see 9-10 attainable points just with good, solid performances, then you gotta keep fighting and make the moves to extract those extra coupla points that could bring home the title
|
| 1:51 |
Has Tony Cingrani figured anything out or is he going to stink it up again as a starter? |
| 1:51 |
: I’m skeptical. Just doesn’t have a deep enough arsenal
|
| 1:51 |
what do you expect out of Refsnyder ros? |
| 1:53 |
: I think he can be a solid producer. Like a Joe Panik-type perhaps. They said he’ll stick if he’s hitting
|
| 1:53 |
Actually going back to Olivera, when do you see him getting called up? What’s a reasonable ROS projection? |
| 1:53 |
: No idea. I’m sorry. Just an impossible situation to figure out right now
|
| 1:53 |
10 team keeper league, trade Gausman and Dickerson for Puig; and don’t want to wait for Dickerson this year |
| 1:53 |
: Yeah I’m cool with that for sure
|
| 1:53 |
What do you think of Aaron Judge? Can he be a top 50-60 OF next year? |
| 1:55 |
: Yeah that’s not a bad upside for next year. a top 60 OF isn’t AWESOME (Mark Canha is 60th in ESPN’s player rater, Yelich 59, Byrd 61), but it’s still a solid producer and that doesn’t put overwhelming expectations on Judge.
|
| 1:55 |
Should I be worried about Howie Kendrick? Hit batted-ball profile is terribad, save for the LD% and the very inflated HR/FB |
| 1:56 |
: I think he’s fine. Terribad greatly overstates even with the 6-year low in Hard%. I think he’ll continue to be a solid top 10 2B
|
| 1:56 |
Is Jason Hammel this good? Or am I missing something? |
| 1:56 |
: I think he is. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…
|
| 1:56 |
What is Yahoo DFS supposed to have to set it apart? |
| 1:56 |
: Not sure
|
| 1:56 |
Does Chapman get traded to Toronto for Osuna & someone else? |
| 1:57 |
: He could get moved there, but I wouldn’t know for what. They might prefer to get Pap who could come cheaper
|
| 1:57 |
Hey, there used to be a guy named Eno, on this chat. Just realized he was missing. Hahahaha, nice pinch hitting job! |
| 1:57 |
: Thanks! Eno’s on vaca
|
| 1:57 |
Taylor Jungmann: smoke and mirrors or is there something there? |
| 1:59 |
: Loved him coming out of college, but I’ll admit that was because he went to the University of Texas which is where I went and i saw him a bunch. He isn’t gassing fools or fooling them with great stuff, but he seems like a capable backend type with his groundball tendencies carrying the load. BBs were a major issue in his last two MiLB stops and he’s curbed them in his short pro stint. If he isn’t giving out free passes, he’s got some use
|
| 1:59 |
What are the chances the Red Sox stage a massive sell-off if they are around 8 GB as we get close to the 7/31 deadline? |
| 1:59 |
: Slim, IMO
|
| 1:59 |
Will increased competition in DFS eventually result in lower vigs? It’s hard to see how it wouldn’t absent illegal collusion between DFS platforms. |
| 1:59 |
: You’d think. A lot thought Yahoo! might come in lower
|
| 1:59 |
concerned about Hahn or does he come back soon? |
| 2:00 |
: I’m concerned. Forearm strain is often bad news. Big fan long-term, but his short-term value is severely dinged for me
|
| 2:00 |
Hey Paul! In our keep-forever league where I’m contending and he’s not, I’ve been offered Liriano for Stroman. My DL is overflowing and I could use some SP help right now, so it makes sense on that level. But I’m worried I’d rue the deal for the ten years after this one. What would you do? |
| 2:00 |
: Don’t worry about 10 years after. You’re looking to bring home the crown and this GREATLY helps you do that. I’m in on that deal
|
| 2:00 |
Seager too much for JD Martinez in Dynasty? |
| 2:01 |
: No, not too much. I assume dynasty leaguers overhype prospects, though, so maybe you could get a tack-on piece even w/JDM’s electric run of late
|
| 2:01 |
Paul – In a H2H league (I know, not ideal) I just traded David Price, JD Martinez and Lucroy for Miggy, Hanley and Grandal. I’ll be in the playoffs so really just trying to stack up for the stretch run. How’d I do? |
| 2:02 |
: You did pretty well, IMO. Obviously it depends on Miggy’s return, but if he’s back in a month, you’re golden
|
| 2:02 |
What are your thoughts on Karns and Fiers for the second half? |
| 2:03 |
: Fiers will prob be more of the same; Karns should be too now that I think about it and that works since he’s been pretty good this year. I’d lean Karns
|
| 2:04 |
HI Paul, huge fan! League owner is offering me JZ or Cashner + Yelich for Adam Jones. I have Jones. Your thoughts on the offer? |
| 2:05 |
: I’m doing that. The pitcher choice is tough. Cashner has the talent to be elite, but we just haven’t seen it this year, meanwhile JZ is basically back at ’13 levels with great ratios, but modest Ks. I think you gotta go JZ rest of season, but JZ-Yelich for Jones works!
|
| 2:06 |
Thinking about cutting Sandoval ($15) to get under my salary cap. Only other move would be to shop a $35 Cano. If I can’t move Cano, will cutting Panda come back to bite me? |
| 2:06 |
: What kinda league setup?
|
| 2:06 |
Kind of in a pinch for a SS, since Desmond has been so poor. Would you take A Escobar or Segura, or hold out hope that Desmond finds his groove again? |
| 2:07 |
: Where is Alcides’ speed? I’ll go Segura. I loved Desmond coming in, but you gave him a half. I’m ok making the move
|
| 2:07 |
Ben Zobrist will certainly out-earn Jimmy Paredes ROS, right? |
| 2:07 |
: I think so
|
| 2:07 |
Segura for Latos in a 5×5 NL only league/ reasonable? |
| 2:07 |
: Perfectly. For both sides.
|
| 2:07 |
Does Aoki have the type of injury that’ll prevent him from running when he returns, or will he pick up where he left off? |
| 2:08 |
: I mean, it is a leg injury so it definitely could. Only 71% success rate prior to injury so they might yellow light him a bit
|
| 2:08 |
Lance Lynn or Tyson Ross ROS? |
| 2:08 |
: Lynn barely, but I like Ross for a big 2H so it’s more an endorsement of Lynn than anything against Ross
|
| 2:08 |
Are Dickerson and Springer reliable enough to be # 2 and #3 OFs RoS in a H2H league, or would you want to go get some top-notch reinforcements? Currently have Mekly and Revere as backups. |
| 2:09 |
: They’re really good 2-3 OFs when healthy, but it’s scary right now with their health profiles. Melky might end up covering one of them if he’s true Melky rest of way like the guy we’ve seen over the last month-plus
|
| 2:09 |
Desperate for steals in a 15 team mixed. Stash Peraza? Or don’t wast the bench spot… |
| 2:09 |
: I like it.
|
| 2:10 |
Need and upgrade at pitcher. What can I expect to get for Liriano and Hutchinson? 12 team H2H |
| 2:11 |
: Well Liriano is a beast, but if you’re pairing those two, you could maybe get a Lynn or Carrasco. I doubt they’d bring in the top level like Cueto-Price. Honestly, I’d rather just hold because Liriano could outperform Lynn or Carrasco pretty easily again in the 2H
|
| 2:11 |
I’ve somehow ended up with 3 elite shortstops on my roster – Tulo, Hanley, Peralta. Didn’t draft any of them and am looking to move at least one. Who’s a 1-for-1 guy you would target for each of those guys? Any position (or pitching) will do. Who would you prefer to trade? |
| 2:12 |
: I’d look to get a big return for one of the first two since Peralta doesn’t have the name value. Fill your biggest need. You can ask for just about anything in a 1-for-1 with those guys. It’s a really big ask to just ask for 1-for-1 targets with very little context.
|
| 2:12 |
From time Werth is back at MLB level in an OBP league would your rather have him and Puig or Bruce and Pence? |
| 2:12 |
: That’s pretty even up, but I’ll take Puig & Werth
|
| 2:12 |
Arcia or Melky RoS? |
| 2:12 |
: melky
|
| 2:12 |
You’re on fire today, Paul. That is all . . |
| 2:12 |
Thoughts on Kang ROS? Playing everyday now at 3B, will his talent show up? |
| 2:13 |
: Yes, I’m a fan. I think we’ve already seen some nice bursts of his talent and the everyday PT will help. I’m buying.
|
| 2:13 |
No incentive to lower vigs when every company is doing it. One DFS platform is going to need to get massive by buying everyone else before they can afford to lower it |
| 2:13 |
Would you drop any of Brandon Moss, Melky Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, or Avasail Garcia for Eddie Rosario? |
| 2:14 |
: Nah.
|
| 2:14 |
Thoughts on Marco Estrada 2nd half? Do you like him better than Kyle Hendricks? |
| 2:15 |
: Nah. They have similarly non-overpowering stuff, but Hendricks keeps the ball in the yard while Estrada is still pretty HR prone (even his good year is a 1.0 HR/9). I think at best, we get an Estrada repeat. That’s if everything breaks right.
|
| 2:15 |
Roster Crunch needed… do I drop Yan Gomes (I have McCann) or Headley (I have A-Rod and Seager)? |
| 2:15 |
: Headley
|
| 2:15 |
How long will it take for a pitcher to be inducted into the HOF as a Rockie? |
| 2:15 |
: OMG. Another 25 years.
|
| 2:15 |
Lance Lynn and Yan Gomes for Thor and C Maybin? Who wins? |
| 2:16 |
: I think the first side still wins
|
| 2:16 |
Hey Paul seriously thanks for answering so many questions. It means I stay through all your chats just in case I think of something an hour in. |
| 2:16 |
: Thanks!
|
| 2:16 |
Moss and Maybin for Sano and Melky, redraft |
| 2:17 |
: Fair deal. I don’t have a strong lean. Maybin’s health counters Sano’s lack of track record. Moss and Melky have both been below expectations, but shown signs of coming out of it
|
| 2:17 |
Would you trade Keuchel and Desmond for Justin Upton? My OF is Puig, Gomez and B. Hamilton, and MI is Pedroia and Travis. My staff is excellent, and Puig/Gomez could bounce back, so I’m hesitant. What say you? (keeper league) |
| 2:19 |
: Probably not, even as an Upton diehard. If you’re only starting 3 OFs, then you could get into a real pinch where you’re leaving Hamilton on the sidelines and I know his OBP is like five… as in .005… but he’s still stealing like crazy. I buy Keuchel a good bit. Sure, we’ll bake in some regression, but this might also just be his dream season and he goes out for another 90 IP of a 2.50 ERA en route to at least receiving Cy Young votes.
|
| 2:19 |
I dropped A.J. Ramos for Capps in a points league just because of his K Rate. Silly? Also I’m not really competing this year for $$$ |
| 2:20 |
: Yes. I prefer Ramos. I think Ramos is going to be an elite level closer
|
| 2:20 |
: Assuming he’s not already
|
| 2:20 |
maybe desmond stays so bad, the cheap mets can afford to sign him in the offseason! |
| 2:20 |
: Better than giving Syndergaard for him!
|
| 2:20 |
Do you see Marcus Semien bouncing back this season or is his current play indicative of who he really is? |
| 2:21 |
: more the latter. Solid first two months but it’s not like he had amazing skills so his June swoon that has carried over into July isn’t that surprising. he’s OK, but his position(s) are where the value comes from
|
| 2:21 |
Is Jake McGee droppable in 12-team re-draft? Seems like Box has nailed down that closers job. |
| 2:21 |
: Yeah i think you can drop him in that format
|
| 2:21 |
No hard limit on Banuelos, but 120-130 is what they’ve said. He’s at 94 now |
| 2:22 |
: Word. So yeah that curbs his 2H value quite a bit
|
| 2:22 |
Random player rankings for 2H: Odor, Melky, DeShields |
| 2:22 |
: i think that’s probably the order, though if i need speed, DeShields trumps Melky
|
| 2:22 |
Do you think CarGo can have a big 2nd half? The batted ball velocity and fly ball distance are still elite and the plate discipline similar to his productive seasons. |
| 2:23 |
: he could, but it’d only be against righties so the volume might not be there. he’s become nothing v. LHP
|
| 2:23 |
Colabello or Napoli ROS? |
| 2:24 |
: Can’t believe I’m saying Colabello.
|
| 2:24 |
Drop Soler for Melky? |
| 2:24 |
: NO!
|
| 2:24 |
Votto and a Keepable Buxton for Rizzo |
| 2:24 |
: Prefer the pair
|
| 2:24 |
i hate cbs |
| 2:24 |
yuck, CBS’s interface is god awful, you can’t see stat ranges on your roster oage, the add/drop function defaults to the FA list, transactions are muddled with news/advice, It still doesnt display double headers, and worst of all, lineups lock 5min before the 1st game of the day. |
| 2:25 |
: Word. I play at all of the sites, maybe I’m just more comfortable w/CBS bc I have several lgs there
|
| 2:25 |
If Aramis is all you can bring in if your the mets, you arent winning a wild card. |
| 2:27 |
: Except they got to 47-42 already so I disagree that they can’t eek out a WC with only adding one piece like Aramis. They’re not going to make wholesale changes. Adding Aramis w/Duda recapturing his early season form and Cuddyer even being league average or a couple ticks above (like a 108 wRC+ or something) would be enough with this incredible pitching.
|
| 2:27 |
Just traded Kipnis and Vogt for Marte. Good deal? |
| 2:27 |
: It’s not a *bad* deal.
|
| 2:27 |
As a Tigers guy canyou shed some insight into bruce rondon’s value going forward? I’ve got himon a dirt cheap contract and would keep him if he might be in line for saves in the future |
| 2:28 |
: I think he will eventually get a shot to close, though not this year. Still raw. Still learning to put hitters away. He’s learning that his stuff alone won’t shut down MLB hitters all the time. Gotta sequence better and hit your spots, even at 100 MPH
|
| 2:28 |
Arcia, Jesus Montero, or Rusney Castillo ROS |
| 2:28 |
: Arcia, Rusney, Jesus
|
| 2:28 |
Any optimism on a 2nd half bounce back for Steve Pearce? |
| 2:29 |
: Not really, sorry. Seems 31-year old, 383 PA breakouts aren’t sustainable after all. Who knew?!
|
| 2:29 |
Would you hold a $1 Shane Greene in an AL keeper league or is it not worth the roster spot? |
| 2:29 |
: I would try to, yes. I still think he has the stuff to become something, but he does need work so it’s a long-term play at this point. He just hasn’t commanded his stuff the way he did last year and for three starts this year
|
| 2:29 |
deep keeper–abreu/desmond vs bryant/alcides? |
| 2:30 |
: Pretty even up, there. I lean Bryant ever-so-slightly
|
| 2:30 |
Marcus Semien or Jung-ho Kang ROS? |
| 2:30 |
: Kang
|
| 2:30 |
Gun to your head… Trout or Harper ROS? |
| 2:31 |
: Y’all, call the cops, I have a gun pointed at me. 🙂 Still Trout, but they will both go 1 in a ton of leagues next year and I can’t imagine you can really clown anyone for picking one over the other
|
| 2:31 |
If you had to take a guess, do we see Matz again this season? |
| 2:31 |
: Yes
|
| 2:31 |
ROS expectations for Tanaka, assuming he doesn’t miss significant time? |
| 2:33 |
: If healthy, I think he’s great. Maybe not last year great, but very good. The problem is that HRs can muddle an ERA in no time. The only thing in his skill set that says the 3.63 ERA is legit is that 1.3 HR/9. Everything else points to a much better pitcher. So maybe another half in the mid-3.00s is the downside (again, with health)
|
| 2:33 |
Should the mets buy or sell? i keep hearing they want zobrist, and i know alderson loves everything beane does, but that is not an upgrade that will improve their chances enough to get to a 1 game playoff AND it will cost too much. They are projected to finish behind the pirates, cubs, and giants. They should sell what they can right? sellers market |
| 2:37 |
: it is a seller’s market, but what are they going to sell? I do think Zobrist would be a great acquisition for them because they can move him around. Good Zobrist could be a 2 WAR player the rest of the way and that would be a substantial upgrade for them.
|
| 2:37 |
Hey Paul, thank you for the advice. I’ll pull the trigger on Sonny then. With that in mind, now that Sano will be gone…who would you keep after Correa/Kluber/Pollock? Cueto (8th round cost, 6th, then has to be thrown back), Salazar (12th, 10th, 8th), Rizzo (2nd), Altuve (4th, 2nd), or Mesoraco (21st, 19th)? Those would be my other options. Again, thanks for the advice. |
| 2:37 |
: Cueto is situation dependent since he’s an FA. Maybe just take Rizzo as a 2nd since he’s a 1st rounder
|
| 2:38 |
Is Byrd a top 30 OF ROS? I feel he’s continuously underrated. |
| 2:38 |
: Top 30 might be a touch high, but top 50 seems right. If you lop off that April, he’s been fantastic. He is underrated bc he’s old and the power was kinda outta nowhere
|
| 2:38 |
holy crap, its 1 oclock already? how did this happen? |
| 2:38 |
Is Jayson Werth worth a stash? |
| 2:39 |
: Yeah
|
| 2:39 |
Wouldn’t Jay Bruce look nice in the OF here? |
| 2:39 |
: Yes, That could be a good target, but I doubt they wanna bench Cuddyer or Curtis
|
| 2:39 |
Odds Dickerson plays again this year? The foot injury won’t fully heal without surgery, right? |
| 2:40 |
: I still think he’ll try to come back after some rest, so I’d say at last 85% that he plays, but for how long and how well, I don’t really now. Plantar fasciitis has become an injury I run away from. Traded Dickerson the second the foot was a thing earlier this year even though he was still raking
|
| 2:40 |
Where does Bruce land? |
| 2:40 |
: TBD. Let’s see if Cincy actually really sells. I could see a muted selling that they think is bigger than it really is
|
| 2:41 |
Arrieta for Tanaka and Aroldis? |
| 2:41 |
: Gimme the duo!
|
| 2:41 |
Any word on M Montero’s thumb injury? Will we see Schwarber? |
| 2:41 |
: haven’t seen any word yet. I do think we see Schwarber if MM hits the DL
|
| 2:41 |
If healthy, do you see Pence returning to top 20 OF status? |
| 2:42 |
: Maybe. He’s more of a compiler which boosts him in the rankings as the season wears on. On a per PA basis, he’s probably more top 30 than top 20
|
| 2:42 |
Do you see the Angels moving someone to the pen to keep Heaney in the rotation? |
| 2:43 |
: Yeah, Shoemaker has relieved before and certainly hasn’t done anything that guarantees him a rotation spot
|
| 2:43 |
Would you trade JD Martinez to get Miggy in a H2H league where you’re already locked into the playoffs? |
| 2:43 |
: Sure
|
| 2:43 |
Is Jesse Chavez in the rotation for much longer? |
| 2:44 |
: Who would replace him at this point? Might have to stick out of necessity, but could be replaced in August some time.
|
| 2:44 |
Is Dickerson done for the season? Should I sell him for anything I can get right now? Or just hold at this point |
| 2:45 |
: No word that he’s done. I wouldn’t be agianst selling if you could get something useful, but that might be tough
|
| 2:45 |
Watermelon is best served cold. |
| 2:45 |
: Duh.
|
| 2:45 |
Thoughts on Mat Latos ROS? |
| 2:45 |
: Solid if healthy. Skills aren’t too far from pre-2014 levels. I’m a fan.
|
| 2:46 |
What do I get with Fangraphs +? |
| 2:46 |
: All of the player profiles from this year and years past, plus a couple pieces of week from Eno (including a recent one on Gregory Polanco, who was asked about a lot in this chat)
|
| 2:47 |
:
|
| 2:47 |
I just want to say thank you, youre absolutely killing it right now! |
| 2:47 |
Paul, is Puig overrated? His numbers this year are just ok, considering the injuries. His numbers in past years aren’t other worldly. Is it the hope for the high ceiling? |
| 2:49 |
: Aren’t they otherworldly, though? .305/.386/.502 for 1072 PA coming into this year. He hasn’t been great this year, but it’s really been the 11 games in July weighing his numbers down. He only has 43 games so that’s a quarter of his work and it’s been abysmal. If he had these numbers 43 games into the season (so mid-May?), I doubt we’d really hear much. Feels worse bc of the calendar, but he hasn’t played a full half
|
| 2:49 |
Verlander’s projections look pretty good to me for an AL only league. 4 ERA even, lotta innings, 8k/9. Are they way too optimistic? |
| 2:49 |
: No, they’re not. He’s still very talented.
|
| 2:49 |
Maybin for Jordan Zim? I have 4 good to great OF already, and my SP is solid, so it’s a matter of which one is better overall. |
| 2:50 |
: Yes, that’s a good deal.
|
| 2:50 |
Still on board with Cashner? |
| 2:50 |
: yes, though annoyed and little cool on his rest of season, but still overall a big fan and wouldn’t be surprised if he got right and surged to the finish line
|
| 2:50 |
How long until Buxton is a solid MLB player? |
| 2:50 |
: Couple years
|
| 2:50 |
Thanks for the answers and the long chat today (MORE CHAT = MORE FUN = MORE KNOWLEDGE). And, love SaTB podcast too |
| 2:50 |
Would you be looking to trade Harper in a redraft? I feel like he’s already achieved a full season of stats and worried about his injury history… |
| 2:51 |
: if you feel that way, then yes. you’ve already gotten fantastic production and he’ll fetch a mint. I’m not really looking to deal him myself, but your rationale is sound
|
| 2:51 |
Rank in a 8-team triple slash: |
| 2:51 |
next 2 years of Posey, 2 years of Donaldson, 3 years of Arenado, 3 years of Mookie |
| 2:52 |
: Arenado, Mookie, Donaldson, Posey
|
| 2:52 |
I don’t think they’ve given a hard limit on Banuelos’ innings, but Mark Bowman with MLB.com has reported it’s likely between 120-130 IP. |
| 2:52 |
Do you think Anibal Sanchez turns things around in the second half? |
| 2:53 |
: If he keeps the ball in the park. It’s that simple… but at the same time so very hard. It’s all about command. Stuff is there. He was the best home run-preventer for two years running and then collapsed this year, I think we could definitely see a big rebound. He’s actually someone who could’ve made my 2H bust-out podcast on Tuesday
|
| 2:53 |
Could you rank Span, Souza, Melky, and Dyson ROS? |
| 2:53 |
: I think you just did.
|
| 2:53 |
What’s the expected K/9 for Nola? |
| 2:53 |
: Maybe 7s
|
| 2:53 |
Corey Seager and Odorizzi for Archer? |
| 2:53 |
Sorry that was in dynasty |
| 2:54 |
: The pair is probably better there. Archer’s gap over Odorizzi isn’t Seager so gimme the duo
|
| 2:54 |
any chance of a Pittsburgh Meet-up in the future? |
| 2:54 |
: I don’t know. Going to PNC would rule.
|
| 2:54 |
Is Patrick Corbin worth holding onto? |
| 2:54 |
: Depends on league type.
|
| 2:54 |
Keep or drop Alex Wood in a shallow redraft roto. Killing ratios. |
| 2:55 |
: The WHIP Is filthy, but the ERA was 2.85 in 10 starts prior to the Coors outing. Yeah I’m OK replacing him if you’ve got a solid arm on the wire
|
| 2:55 |
What do I do with Corey Dickerson? Droppable in 12-team redraft? I haven’t heard anything on him in weeks, and I don’t have a DL spot. |
| 2:55 |
: if you don’t have a DL spot, I understand it, but I have a hard time just cutting him without any news. We still haven’t heard anything that says he’s out for the year
|
| 2:55 |
Time to give up on Semien? I can drop him for Alcides or Brad Miller in an OPS league. I don’t need SB, just counting stats |
| 2:56 |
: Yeah I’d take Miller. I’m not a huge Semien guy. I overrated the shit outta him in my May update. Got drunk on the HR/SB pacing like a twerp
|
| 2:56 |
Who are some names that will be future fantasy aces in the next few years? |
| 2:58 |
: Syndergaard, Stroman, Rodon, Gausman, Wheeler
|
| 2:58 |
My McCutchen for his Bryant, Hosmer, and Moustakas. 10-team roto. Would you pull the trigger? |
| 2:58 |
: Who are the Royals replacing is the key?
|
| 2:58 |
Danggit man give me some feedback on Mat Latos ROS.. |
| 2:58 |
: I did. Relax. Hella questions.
|
| 2:58 |
Re: Brandon Belt: He’s swung at 82% of pitches in the zone but only 27% of pitches outside the zone. That’s some impressive pitch recognition. |
| 2:58 |
: I really like him.
|
| 2:58 |
What do you think of Latos’ long term prospects? I’m looking to buy low on him in a dynasty league (18 team). I’m thinking about selling high on Montgomery and dumping vmart. Thanks |
| 2:59 |
: I like selling high on Monty, but I wouldn’t dump VMart. Get Latos, but not for VMart
|
| 2:59 |
I need an OF and have solid pitching. Deal David Price for Cespedes or for Adam Jones? Or hold Price and stick with Soler/Kemp/Calhoun/Pence? |
| 2:59 |
: I could do either OF, but I prefer Cespedes personally
|
| 2:59 |
replacing dl Hahn do you pick up Tazawa,Dickey, Medlen, Porcello, Johnson, May,Feliz, Doubront? please rank, or even top 3 |
| 3:00 |
: Taz, Dickey, and May (wish he had a rotation spot)
|
| 3:00 |
Was offered Sandoval for Sano 3B for a 3B in a re-draft league. Am I crazy for holding onto Sano? |
| 3:00 |
: No hold onto Sano
|
| 3:00 |
Rusney Castillo. He’s 28. He’s not impressed so far. My team is out of it. Should I take a flier on Jesus Montero who is somehow THREE YEARS YOUNGER?!?!?! |
| 3:01 |
: I think I’m just gonna be late on Montero if he ever pans out .. I can’t get on board yet
|
| 3:01 |
Speaking of potential 2nd half buy low candidates, do you think Jaso holds onto the #1 spot in the batting order? I have him in an AL-only OBP league. |
| 3:01 |
: Yes, very high on him as a sneaky good C, espec. in OBP
|
| 3:02 |
Yovani Gallardo has a higher bWAR (3.4) than Hamels, Cueto or Samardzija but seem to be flying under the radar? What kind of package do you think it will take to get him? Possible bargain? |
| 3:02 |
: I’d take all three over him by a LOT. He’s been running hot because he’s a veteran pitcher who can get guys out, but he’s nowhere near this level in terms of true talent. I’d tack a full run onto his 2H ERA at least (3.62)
|
| 3:02 |
I can keep 3 of these pitchers for a keeper league. Who do you like most, who should I look to move for draft capital?David Price, Cueto, Salazar, Pineda, Kluber, Keuchel |
| 3:03 |
: Kluber is still my favorite. He, Price, and Cueto will give you the biggest returns.
|
| 3:03 |
Is Ottoneu worth the price? |
| 3:03 |
: Yeah if you like that kind of league format. It’s very detailed and a lot of fun if you’re ready to dive into it
|
| 3:03 |
Jesse Chavez’s last four starts have been awful. Time to cut him loose or is this just a blip? |
| 3:04 |
: Could be wearing down some, but I’m not sure they have a replacement just yet so they could let him work it out. I’d be shopping for a replacement, though. If you dont’ get rid of him now, you will still want to relatively soon
|
| 3:04 |
I leave for an hour and you’re still here. #respect |
| 3:04 |
Leave for 3 hours, come back, and you’re still chatting. You’re the man Paul. |
| 3:04 |
Better stash in an OBP league where I’ve still got a shot this year: Berrios or Conforto? |
| 3:04 |
: I think Berrios comes up this year so since you’re contending go with him
|
| 3:04 |
Searching for an eventual closer with some upside… Strickland, Jeffress, Will Smith or Kela? |
| 3:05 |
: Eventual meaning ’15? If so, you gotta go with your favorite of the two Brewers. If you’re looking more long-term, then Strickland is a great option. I could even get behind Strickland as a possible ’15 guy, but I think K-Rod HAS to get moved opening up the MIL situation
|
| 3:05 |
: Hey y’all, I’m gonna have to get going soon, i have to record the pod and eat lunch
|
| 3:05 |
also as a pittsburgh Native, “yinz” should come down. PNC is absolutely stunning. not a bad seat in the house |
| 3:06 |
: I’m dying to go
|
| 3:06 |
youve effectively killed 3 hours of my work day. i cant say thank you enough |
| 3:06 |
: Wood!
|
| 3:06 |
What are your thoughts on Iwakuma ROS? Do you think his injury hurts his value significantly? |
| 3:07 |
: It has hurt his value significantly for sure, but this is when you buy low. This is an ACTUAL buy low. People say Carlos Carrasco is a buy low bc he has a 4.07 ERA, but you’re still paying for him. With Iwakuma, he’s basically free now. I like him as a gamble
|
| 3:07 |
What are vigs? |
| 3:07 |
: The charge at a DFS site for playing the game. So you put in $10 for a game and they take $1 off of that
|
| 3:07 |
Cant believe this is still going, writing your name down for sure. |
| 3:07 |
Paul- have you called Guinness for the length of this chat yet? |
| 3:07 |
: This isn’t even close to my longest 🙂
|
| 3:08 |
Come to Philly for a meet up! Great seats still available at Citizens Bank! |
| 3:08 |
: Been to Citizen’s a bunch bc my best friend used to live in Philly. Great park.
|
| 3:08 |
:
|
| 3:08 |
Hanley for Archer, redraft. Who wins? |
| 3:08 |
: I generally lean hitter in those 1-for-1s
|
| 3:08 |
Thoughts on Jake Peavy the rest of the year? |
| 3:08 |
: Just OK. Not quite like his SF run of ’14. Maybe a 3.75 ERA?
|
| 3:08 |
You should note that that 47-42 record began as like 15-3. That’s 32-39 since. |
| 3:10 |
: true, true. that’s re: Mets for those not following. They were unstoppable w/even a modicum of offense. I feel like Cuddyer and Duda getting on track plus an acquisition (Zobrist preferably, but Aramis, too) would be enough to stabilize the O w/Curtis, Murphy, and TdA being solid-average or a tick better.
|
| 3:10 |
what they should do is bring up conforto and send cuddyer tot he glue factory |
| 3:11 |
: Well they won’t obviously
|
| 3:11 |
McGee or Capps in a 12 team, redraft holds league? |
| 3:11 |
: McGee probably better for the HDs
|
| 3:11 |
You think Pomeranz closes if Clippard is moved? |
| 3:12 |
: Could. Really up in the air, espec. w/OAK who doesn’t just follow convention
|
| 3:12 |
Thanks again Paul have a good Pod |
| 3:12 |
Looks like Schwarber is getting recalled. Montero do the DL… |
| 3:12 |
Drop Kyle Gibson, my worst SP, for Schwarber? |
| 3:13 |
: he’s the worst you can cut right now? if so, then sure bc Schwarber seems to be in line for a call
|
| 3:13 |
OBP League – Granderson or Aaron Hicks ROS? |
| 3:13 |
: CURTIS!
|
| 3:13 |
Need a catcher after trading Vogt. Offer up Maybin for Grandal or Martin or McCann? Which one would you do that for? Or all 3? |
| 3:14 |
: Any of em is fine, tbh. I’m a Grandal honk from the spring (had him highest among the rankers at 10 I think… now 2 in latest ranks)
|
| 3:14 |
Drop Lucroy for Schwarber OBP? |
| 3:14 |
: No, that’s too much.
|
| 3:14 |
Schwarber ROS if he stays up? Where would you place him in your rankings? |
| 3:15 |
: Not sure. Gonna update them in a few minutes, though. Let’s get it confirmed first. But at least top 12 I’d imagine
|
| 3:15 |
I’m looking to trade Matt Moore, I’m not high on him. Some still are, apparently. Any specific position players I should target? |
| 3:15 |
: Nah, just see what you can get. I’m not super high on his ’15 prospects. Still a long-term fan
|
| 3:16 |
: OK y’all, I gotta roll for real. Hopefully I’ll be back again soon. Take care. Hit me up on twitter @sporer if I missed your question and you want it answered still
|
| 3:16 |
:
|
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.