Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/15
11:59 |
: Hey everybody, we’ll get going very shortly. I’m relieving Dave Cameron today, though it’ll be more the traditional 1-inning use (i.e. 60-90 minutes of chatting) as opposed to my normal multi-inning relief chats (multiple hours) just bc of scheduling.
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12:00 |
Hey Paul! Do you like any of these RPs for save speculation? Will Smith, Tazawa, Soriano, Strop, Jim Johnson, Delabar, Cecil, Hudson, Burgos, Siegrist |
12:00 |
: Smith is very interesting if KRod is moved (and he should be). Otherwise, I’m looking at Tazawa for a similar reason and Hudson as a long-shot sleeper-type
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12:00 |
Which side do you like in a keeper? Polanco+ AJ Ramos or Odor + McCullers |
12:01 |
: That’s not bad, but I’d lean the first side
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12:01 |
It’s Paul!!! What an unexpected treat for Wednesday! I’m in an AL-only league looking to scoop up the next impact SP to be called up from the minors. Am I right in thinking the top 3 options are Jose Berrios, Brian Johnson and Luis Severino? If so, would you be so kind as to rank the three in terms of 2015 impact, as well as tell me anything you feel relevant in their regards? Your help is greatly appreciated. |
12:01 |
: Yes that’s the trio. I’m loving Berrios and very excited for his call-up.
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12:01 |
12team H2H Keeper league: Was offered Marte carrasco for arenado (11th) jimmy nelson. Have Maikel Franco as backup 3rd base for 14th round. |
12:02 |
: That’s not bad, especially since you have Franco. If you need a big arm, I like getting Carrasco
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12:02 |
ROS, Matt Duffy or Marcus Semien? Do you see Duffy staying at the top of the order with Pence back and Aoki looming? |
12:02 |
: I’ll go Duffy, though I could see him moving down the lineup a bit with the returns that you mention.
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12:02 |
Come trade deadline, will the Red Sox be buyers or sellers? If your vote is seller, who would you say are the top 3 candidates to be dealt? |
12:03 |
: I’d say sellers. Uehara, DeAza and a big contract like maybe Pablo if they can find a taker
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12:03 |
What can be expected from Andrew Cashner over the next year and a half before he hits FA? |
12:03 |
: I expect strong performance because his stuff is excellent, but this year has been puzzling. I’m still buying.
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12:03 |
Better bench bat, LeMahieu or Fowler? |
12:04 |
: DLM has impressed and plays the more scarce of the two positions. I’ll go him even though I’ve been a Fowler guy
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12:04 |
Can you rank these ROS: Velasquez, Heaney, Gibson, Nola, Nova? |
12:04 |
: Gibby, Heaney, Nova, VV, and Nola (just an unknown on Nola.. he could move up quickly if he comes up and performs)
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12:04 |
It’s hard for me to contain my excitement owning Miguel Sano. That said, I’m very much in contention to win my AL-only league. What type of return should I be looking for in order to part with my illustrious Miguel? |
12:05 |
: You need to fill your biggest need, whatever that may be, at the very least. Ideally, assuming it’s keeper, you could probably cover 2-3 holes
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12:05 |
Paul- H2H redraft, need to drop one. Which one? Pence / Maybin / Yelich / Soler |
12:06 |
: Ouch. Really tough to dump one of those. I guess Yelich bc Soler’s ceiling is too high for me to move on
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12:06 |
What are your thoughts on a Lucas Duda turn around in the second half? I was offered Duda and Kazmir for Mike Montgomery and Adrian Gonzalez… |
12:06 |
: I’d take that deal. it’s a solid sell-high on Monty. I think Duda will be fine. I can’t imagine he stays this cold unless there’s an injury we don’t know about
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12:06 |
Is Aaron Noka worth a stash in a 12 team mixer? |
12:07 |
: Eno and I discussed him on Tuesday’s pod. If you’re not cutting a worthwhile player and need a big pitching boost, I like the gamble
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12:07 |
I had high hopes for Mike Napoli coming into the season, but he sure hurt my feelings in the first half. Any chance he turns it around in the second half, or should I be dropping him in my AL-only? |
12:07 |
: You and me both. We could still see a big run, but I’ve soured on *expecting* it.
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12:07 |
How do you think the White Sox will proceed at the trade deadline? What do you think they end up doing with Alexei Ramirez? |
12:09 |
: I think it’s really still undecided. Hard to see them flat selling. I know they’re buried behind several teams, but it’s still 6.5 for the wildcard. We’ve seen teams come back EASILY from worse. I expect more of the trades that might move some vets and look dump-ish, but return enough to either keep them status quo or maybe even help them. These next few weeks will be key, too. A four-five gm losing streak could turn them in a second
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12:09 |
Keeper league trade: Bryant or Brantley/Rendon? |
12:11 |
: Lots of risk with those two bats from a health-standpoint since Brantley’s back appears to be a real thing. Seems like a win-win. Those two bats are still star level when healthy so I think I’m taking them. If I’m competing this year, I probably just hold KB
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12:11 |
Paul, you’re the man. Who would you rather have rest of season, Brad Miller or Jedd Gyorko? |
12:11 |
: Thank you! Never been a Gyorko guy and always liked Miller’s hitting so I’ll go there
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12:11 |
Hey Paul! who do you like better as that “super reliever” between Capps and C. Smith? Not terribly desperate for saves and with the seattle closer situation up in the air, I just want the guy who will help outside of saves the most |
12:13 | : If SVs aren’t a concern, gimme my boy Capps who I wrote up yesterday – |
12:13 |
best bet for 50 HRs? |
12:14 |
: Harper. Or JD Martinez!
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12:14 |
Puig or Buxton next 4 years? |
12:14 |
: Puig
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12:14 |
Think Chris Carter turns it around like he did last year? Any chance the Astros demote him soon? |
12:15 |
: I dunno that there’s a turnaround due. This is pretty well in the range of expectations. He’s still basically avg so I doubt he gets sent out
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12:15 |
Is Erasmo better than Chase Anderson and Discalfani for my last pitching spot? |
12:16 |
: Yes, higher upside w/Ks
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12:16 |
If the Tigers become sellers, do you think they could fetch Schoop and Gausman for Price? |
12:16 |
: I’d love to think so, but I highly doubt they could get either, tbh.
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12:16 |
A Sporer chat? OOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!! |
12:16 |
For those of us vultures speculating on saves, how would you rank the following relievers ROS: Tazawa, Scribner, Pomeranz, Rondon (Tigers)? |
12:16 |
: Rondon, Tazawa, Pomy
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12:16 |
Who gets the most saves in Seattle ROS? |
12:16 |
: Carson Smith should’ve locked down the closer’s job for good last night, but Lloyd McClendon still lives
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12:16 |
When can we expect this on the reg? |
12:16 |
: Lemme ask the powers that be!
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12:17 |
Anybody on your radar (call-ups or new planetary arrivals) that will provide some value down the stretch? I have been scouring the call-up news and don’t see much. Leading my league and just want to add depth/keep value away from the competition. |
12:17 |
: Jose Berrios is someone I think could make a real impact
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12:17 |
What do you see NYY doing at the deadline, and which prospects do you think they hold/sell? |
12:17 |
: I think they buy more like last year where it’s smaller pieces that are better values than their names might suggest. i think they hold most of the big prospects (Judge, Severino)
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12:18 |
Hi Paul! One of the mid season updated prospect lists is out. Ryan McMahon again makes the list of the top 50. If he continues to hit well, where do you see him playing when he makes the Big Show? Arenado clearly blocking him at third. Second? First? Or some other position? Thanks! |
12:18 |
: I could see 1B or a trade.
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12:19 |
Hey Paul, any thoughts on Iwakuma ROS? Lots of HR in his debut, but he seemed to always have a HR issue. Was he just rusty or can I bank on the elite WHIP and fairly solid ERA? |
12:19 |
: I have concerns at this point bc it extends back to his last 7 from last year, too (7.88 ERA)
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12:20 |
Need SP help! Would you pick up Rubby and hope he turns things around or roll the dice with Jake Peavy? |
12:20 |
: I’d gamble on Rubby
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12:20 |
Hey Paul, if you had to guess which would be more likely: the Rays having a new stadium built for them or leaving St. Petersburg? |
12:20 |
: I’m not a great resource on this topic, Collette is probably better. But I’ll say they move before a new stadium
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12:20 |
Does Pujols have the most painful looking homerun trot in the majors? He always looks like he is wincing. |
12:20 |
: LOL, I haven’t noticed. I’ll keep an eye out. Hopefully he crushes at least another 20
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12:20 |
I have a roster crunch and need your help since you’re a pitching guru. Who do I give my final SP slot to, Cain, Peavy, or Beachy? The only wrinkle is it’s a keeper and Beachy would be $1. |
12:22 |
I’m dying to pick up Berrios in my AL-only, but I have no available roster spots. If my current relievers are Osuna, Clippard, Carson Smith and Tazawa, can I feel comfortable dropping Tazawa for Berrios? |
12:22 |
: How badly do you need SVs because Uehara could be moved and open it up for Tazawa
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12:23 |
: Jon M., gimme Cain. $1 Beachy SOUNDS great, but the health profile is such that he might not even be deemed keepable by the time this year ends
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12:23 |
12 H2H Dynasty Points. Was offered Panik and Erasmo Ramirez for Odorizzi. My 2B is LeMaiheu and Ramirez is an SP/RP who will slot well into my RP slot. |
12:24 |
: I like that deal. Even though you don’t NEEEED 2B all that badly, it’s just a good value swap and maybe you move one of the 2Bs to plug a different hole if nec.
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12:24 |
5×5 ottoneu league. Cut $14 Trumbo or $14 McHugh and just use replacements from the wire? Could use the extra cash and Trumbo especially has been absolutely brutal |
12:24 |
: If I’m cutting one, it’s Trumbo. What is even up with him right now?!?!
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12:24 |
Thor or Matz Real life and fantasy? |
12:24 |
: Thor
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12:25 |
Hey Paul. Fellow Tiger fan in need of advice. Al-Only Keeper $260 budget. I’m in fourth but going for it. I’m sending a $6 Carrasco, $9 Castillo, and scrap for Chen, Graveman, Rasmus, Brock Holt, and an unkeepable Buxton. Pull the trigger? |
12:25 |
: That’s not a bad infusion of talent, espec. in a single league. Sucks that you can’t keep BBux bc I’m not sure he gives you much this year, but I still think i do it
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12:25 |
In a dynasty format where I’m competitive now, how clear an upgrade is Lucroy over Norris? I think I can swing it but I’m not sure what the extra pieces are. Worth pushing some prospects forward? |
12:25 |
: I still think he’s a solid upgrade over him in 2H. I loved both coming into the season, but LuCroy was my easy #2, while Norris was more of a top 10 guy
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12:26 |
Do you have any idea why Chi Chi is supposed to be good? because I just don’t see anything |
12:27 |
: Deep arsenal, polish since he’s a college guy. It can take some time. He was never seen as a frontliner, but rather a 3-4 type of guy
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12:27 |
Hutch worth the stream tonight vs CWS? |
12:28 |
: He’s really only had two good starts on the road. I don’t think I’d risk it
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12:28 |
Also, question about the ZIPS/Steamer ROS projections – is there any way to differentiate between RPs and SPs in the pitcher projections? I’m wondering if there’s a way to do that so I can sort for projected ERA without having to wade through all the relief pitchers at the top of the list. Thanks! |
12:28 |
: unfortunately, that’s not my forte. That’d be better for a Dan Szymborski
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12:28 |
Any speculation as to what’s wrong with Joc and Adrian Gonzalez? Ice cold for over a month. |
12:29 |
: Nothing. The idea that something is *wrong* when a guy isn’t toting a .900+ OPS is flawed. It’s six months. Guys have ebbs and flows. About the only ones who don’t have at least one down month are the guys who end up winning MVP and Cy, which are the transcendent seasons
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12:29 |
Does Matt Kemp have any value left going forward? |
12:29 |
: Not much. I wasn’t a buyer coming into the season so I’m certainly not jumping in now
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12:29 |
ROS SP: McHugh, Velasquez, Hughes, Kennedy, Corbin |
12:31 |
: VV is last. The other four are pretty darn close. Interestingly, McHugh-Hughes-Kennedy all have HR issues. All can be great if they contain HRs. Gimme McHugh if you’re hoping to pile up IP and get some Ws. Gimme Hughes if your WHIP needs help. Gimme Kennedy if you need Ks most.
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12:32 |
Has the qualifying offer format made it harder to deal for rentals like Cueto, or Price should Detroit decide to sell? Has giving up a late first round draft pick driven up the cost to the point that it’s not as feasible to entertain trades for such players vs say trading for Price last year? |
12:32 |
: Teams just aren’t as willing to deal major prospects for rentals as often anymore. It’s more teams smartening up than it is the QO, IMO
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12:32 |
For a fantasy question…would you sell on Cueto? He’s my best arm but I’m concerned he’ll get traded to a bandbox like Rogers Centre so I’m debating dealing him now for a large return. |
12:33 |
: I think he can succeed anywhere. Remember, Cincy is already a tough park and he’s adjusted to living there for years. Studs will stud. I wouldn’t sell unless I was in an NL-only where you lose guys
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12:33 |
If you’re AJ Preller, how do you approach this trade deadline? |
12:33 |
: :bomb emoji:
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12:33 |
Why is Joe Ross not pitching for the Nats right now? Especially since Strasburg hit the DL? |
12:33 |
: I wish I knew. That was my only silver lining to Stras getting hurt, I have Ross in both leagues where I have Stras
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12:33 |
I like it when you name drop the solo pod, because it is like naming yourself as a source. Keep it up! |
12:33 |
Need a multi-position backup with Harrison out, thoughts on Duffy? Gone a bit cold but qualifies at SS. |
12:37 |
: he had to come down, but this is a cold spell as opposed to him becoming a pumpkin rest of way
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12:38 |
What is your view on Jose de Leon (LAD version)? He’s shot up in the prospect rankings, but now his BB/9 is at 4.17 as well. |
12:38 |
Young guy. I wouldn’t get too hung up on BB rates just yet. Minor league numbers in general can be misleading on both sides |
12:38 |
DL is too full, need a drop. Harrison, Werth, Smyly or Jaime Garcia? 12tm h2h points and pitching is really the driver. |
12:39 |
: Smyly or Werth. Still a month away from Smyly and he might not be peak Smyly upon return
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12:40 |
What do you think about Robbie Ray the rest of this year? NL-only keeper and I’m fighting at the top this year and could use a decent SP. Would have to move Dilson Herrrera at a nice keeper price for him but thinking Ray could be showing something real. |
12:40 |
: I’d be OK with that move. Ray is showing some solid stuff. Heavy flyball guy who has had some HR luck so I can see the ERA rising, but I like a lot of the components he’s showing
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12:40 |
Hi Paul, thoughts on Colabello? Good run or real changes? I know his BABIP is unsustainable but Toronto has a track record of salvaging underperforming righty bats so could there be something there? |
12:42 |
: Is this from last year? LOL. I was skeptical when he started another hot run, but this one has lasted longer than his entire ’14 run… or is 9 PA away, rather. I’m buying a little something. Being in that park and lineup really help
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12:42 |
Thoughts on Carlos Rodon? |
12:42 |
: A young guy figuring it out. Lots of talent, but too raw to be a huge help in mixed leagues this year. I’m still very bullish long-term, but command and control just aren’t there yet
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12:42 |
A month ago you stayed with Kinsler over Kipnis . Can you admit now you were a raging homer and you were wrong? |
12:44 |
Be less douchey, though, man. You wouldn’t have said a damn thing if Kinsler had surged past Kipnis this year so come on down off that high horse. At no point do I expect to go 100% on my calls. Nor should you. |
12:44 |
For rest of season (NL stats only): Braun or Arenado? Also, do you prefer Braun + Cain or Arenado + Liriano and is it close? |
12:45 |
: Arenado for me and I’ll take the Arenado pair, too. It’s not a bad deal on either end, but I’m a big Arenado guy
|
12:45 |
DEvon Travis or Joe Panik ROS? and What kind of return could I expect from one of them? |
12:45 |
: Panik. I’m not sure you’d get a huge return for either since both names are kinda new. I’m a big Panik fan.
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12:45 |
Paul, you never go 100% on your calls, where do I get my refund? Just send you my mailing address? |
12:45 |
Better stash, Nola or Berrios? |
12:46 |
: Berrios for me. I’d bet Eno would go Nola. So we’re torn there
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12:46 |
Capps or Siegrist in a shallow holds league? |
12:46 |
: Lefties seem to be pile up Holds more readily. I love Capps, but I think I go Siegrist there
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12:46 |
Raging homer lol |
12:47 |
Jimmy Paredes: lucky or good? |
12:48 |
: Smashing righties at least. I think he’s alright. Not special, but solid. This year’s Steve Pearce feels like a solid comp for all the obvious reasons (same team, kind of a journeyman, etc….)
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12:48 |
So Is Ubaldo now like a top 40 SP? |
12:48 |
: God, I can’t believe this is actually a viable question, but it is. i’m not sure I’d get him quite that high, but he’s throwing well and I’m willing to take a shot so long as that BB% holds
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12:48 |
Starting Cashner tonight in Pit? |
12:48 |
: Yes
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12:48 |
What do you make of Colabello’s first half and what are his prospects for sustainability for the 2nd half? I know he’s hot hitting .330 but can he do .290 with 10-12 hr’s? |
12:49 |
: See previous. I think he can be solid like an upper-700s, low-800s OPS w/pop and worthwhile R/RBI because of that lineup.
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12:49 |
long story short Miller is still on the wire after his injury. Drop Russell (keeper – k), Buxton (k) Moore (k) Gio Mchugh Lackey? Can only start 2 RP and have Chapman and Melancon. Thanks! |
12:50 |
: Andrew Miller? I’d cut Matt Moore for him
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12:50 |
Will Gerardo Parra start losing ABs the Khris Davis? |
12:50 |
: Some, yes. they’re a natural platoon
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12:50 |
ROS Utility bat (BBs are 6th Offensive cat)—mostly looking for HR/RBI; pick 2: Alvarez, LaRoche, Carter, Granderson |
12:53 |
: Curtis and Carter
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12:53 |
Who do you prefer in a dynasty, keep-forever format: Puig or Springer? |
12:53 |
: Springer
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12:53 |
Deep 12 team keeper league: do I trade Goldi Kershaw and Bogarts for Abreu, Rizzo, and Correa? |
12:54 |
: Holy smokes that is some blockbuster. I think without any additional context, I might go ahead and do that. I don’t usually like to give the 1 and 2 players in a deal, but you’re getting 3-4-5 by a healthy margin and one of your three could overtake Kershaw as the second-best in that deal. Plus I’m good moving away from pitching in a keeper league
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12:54 |
Please rank these guys for saves, in both 2015 and 2016: Hoover, Jim Johnson, Jeffress, Will Smith, Hudson, Caminero |
12:55 |
: W.Smith, Hudson, JJ, Cami, Hoover
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12:55 |
Is Correa for real? |
12:55 |
: Yes. He’s a stud. He’ll hit a cold spell and have to adjust, but he’s awesome
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12:58 |
Do you own a terrarium |
12:58 |
one of those tiny ass plant things |
12:58 |
: I do not
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12:58 |
That trade is not a good one; Goldi > Rizzo and Bogaerts probably = Correa over time; and you’re trading the best SP in the game for a UTIL bat? Nope nope nope |
1:00 |
: Goldy has been unreal this year, but this is a career-year, not a new level (most-likely). Thus beyond ’15, I’m not sure there is much separation between the three 1B. I favor Correa over Bogaerts. And Kershaw is still excellent, but I don’t love keeping pitching long-term, even studs
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1:00 |
Lucroy, Ortiz and Betts for Trout? 12 Team 5×5 keeper roto. Thanks! |
1:04 |
: I still want Trout, but it’s a fair offer for him
|
1:05 |
Are either Archer or deGrom going to be better keepers than Posey/Donaldson/Arenado/Mookie? |
1:05 |
: No. Love both arms, but those four hitters are studs
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1:06 |
What are the odds that Corey Seager gets called up in the near future? Where would he fit in SS rankings if he was called up today? |
1:07 |
: I just can’t see the PT. Of course whenever we say we can’t see prospect A coming up or we have no idea when he will, he’s up in like 2 days. But as it stands, I don’t see an obvious chunk of PT for him so I’m not expecting a near call-up. If he is called up, I’d get him in any format just because he COULD be a top 10 SS upon arrival and SS is garbage this year
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1:07 |
Is Polanco this bad or is he set for a second half resurgence? |
1:08 |
: The majors leagues are hard. We’re spoiled by the guys who are immediate successes and so we expect it instead of realizing THEY are the outliers, not the guys who struggle in their early 20s. Polanco will be fine, IMO
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1:08 |
What do you make of Pham? |
1:09 |
: I realize the team he’s on shouldn’t overwhelmingly affect me, but his being on StL instead of just about any other team gives him some intrigue given their history of late-bloomers. Not a mixed league play, but an NL play with a watch status for mixers
|
1:09 |
Chances Middlebrooks is a mostly regular player for SD rest of season and is fairly productive in a deeper 5×5 NL format? Would you bet on Middlebrooks or Gyorko to achieve that? |
1:09 |
: I’d bet on WMB of the two, but neither instills a ton of confidence
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1:09 |
Aye Spo, is it worth rostering both Lucroy and Grandal in a 10 teamer with utility slot? |
1:10 |
: Just a 1 C league I imagine? I mean, you don’t want to cut either, but I’m not much on playing 2 Cs. I’d really try to move one (Grandal since LuCroy is in a trough right now) and fill another need. Worst case, ride it out w/both and see about trading one if/when LuCroy gets hot
|
1:10 |
What website or app do you use to follow games/stats live? |
1:10 |
: MLB At Bat is my life
|
1:11 |
Pre-injuries, which side would you have preferred in a keeper: A) Miggy, Springer, Cain, Franco … B) Trout, Blackmon, Moreland, Ubaldo |
1:11 |
: A
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1:11 |
What happened to Napoli this year? |
1:11 |
: Wish I knew. I was pretty keen on him coming into the year. He’s been worse than last year and I was thinking he’d be AT LEAST a copy of ’14
|
1:11 |
Who are a couple of high end players that have disappointed for one reason or another that you are targeting, both for this year and for a keeper? |
1:14 |
: Carrasco. Despite his near no-no, he’s still north of 4.00. I’m definitely buying. I could see Avisail Garcia exploding
|
1:14 |
Does Giolito get a cup of coffee this year? |
1:14 |
: I don’t see it
|
1:14 |
Any chance Correa takes ROY over guys like Bryant? I know Bryant is awesome, but still. |
1:14 |
: Well there’s one for each league so they can both win!
|
1:14 |
where are Puigs power numbers? |
1:14 |
: Wish I knew, tbh. I really don’t know, but I’m sitting tight with him
|
1:14 |
After Trout, Harper, Goldy, and Stanton, who do ya got as the best 5 keepers for the next 3-5 years? |
1:15 |
: Arenado, Machado, Rizzo, Correa, and Bryant. Cutch is still amazing.
|
1:15 |
Can the current Giants be called a “dynasty” if they never even make the playoffs twice in a row? I mean, this is the Wildcard Era. Heck, double wildcard. (I think they have the 8th-best record since the start of 2010, when the dynasty began.) Thanks, Paul! |
1:16 |
: They’ve got the titles. I’m not against anyone labeling them as that
|
1:16 |
what side: k. seager + lucroy + g. richards or donaldson. 10 tm |
1:16 |
: I generally prefer to accumulate star power in 10-teamers, but I think that’s a solid pkg. for JD
|
1:16 |
Thor or E. Santana ROS (12 team H2H redraft) |
1:16 |
: Thor
|
1:16 |
If you were a celebrity would you lick donuts at a donut shop |
1:16 |
: I do not get that
|
1:16 |
What is your running definition of an Ace? Is it just strikeouts and FIP? is it any particular stat? Just the top X pitchers? |
1:19 |
: It morphs. It’s definitely not one stat. It’s gotta be a combination of all of it.
|
1:19 |
Sano is SS eligible in Yahoo. Him vs. Correa ROS. Standard 5 stats + OPS |
1:19 |
: Correa, but loving both.
|
1:19 |
who is more likely to be brought up this year, Giolito or Urias? |
1:21 |
: I really don’t see either, but I’d lean Gio bc Urias has been out w/the eye surgery
|
1:21 |
Is Alex Guerrero a Dodger in 2016? |
1:21 |
: No
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1:26 |
: OK y’all, I gotta get going here in a few. I’m sorry I couldn’t do a marathon today
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1:28 |
nooo! i just got here! |
1:42 |
: I’ll see if I can get on the schedule again soon. Tweet me @sporer if your question is dire!
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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
ROS Hundley or Gomes? Thanks