Penultimate Statistical Report for the Arizona Fall League

November 13, 2013

The author has published a weekly statistical report for the Arizona Fall League each week since its brief season commenced back in October — not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows is the the penultimate edition of this site’s weekly statistical report for the AFL, which league concludes with this Saturday’s championship game.

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Penultimate SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Hitters
What follows represents the penultimate SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Arizona Fall League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	MLB	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Thomas La Stella	Braves	24	78	1	16	4	1.6%	17.1%	5.1%	148
Jared Mitchell	White Sox	24	82	5	13	16	3.9%	14.2%	19.5%	139
Michael Ohlman	Orioles	22	38	3	10	6	3.2%	15.7%	17.7%	138
Andrew Susac	Giants	23	59	2	15	10	2.3%	18.0%	17.0%	137
C.J. Cron	Angels	23	79	4	7	10	3.3%	9.5%	12.7%	131
Travis Shaw	Red Sox	23	65	5	9	14	4.0%	12.4%	21.5%	131
Henry Urrutia	Orioles	26	72	3	6	7	2.8%	9.3%	9.7%	131
Kris Bryant	Cubs	21	83	6	12	23	4.4%	13.3%	27.7%	126
Mitchell Haniger	Brewers	22	105	4	11	16	3.0%	10.5%	15.2%	126
Dustin Garneau	Rockies	25	53	3	7	9	3.0%	11.8%	17.5%	125

Penultimate SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Pitchers
What follows represents the penultimate SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the AFL. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	MLB	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Nick Wittgren	Marlins	22	12	0	12.2	46	18	2	32.9%	9.0%	61
Dominic Leone	Mariners	21	10	0	11.0	45	14	1	27.5%	8.5%	75
Alex Meyer	Twins	23	6	6	23.0	91	25	6	27.5%	8.5%	76
Kyle Crick	Giants	20	6	4	12.2	56	19	9	31.3%	12.5%	76
Jeff Urlaub	Athletics	26	10	0	11.0	44	14	2	27.8%	9.1%	76
Angel Baez	Royals	22	8	0	11.2	58	19	9	30.7%	12.4%	77
Seth Frankoff	Athletics	24	11	0	11.1	46	14	2	27.2%	9.0%	78
David Goforth	Brewers	24	11	0	11.0	48	14	3	26.6%	9.5%	81
Jonas Dufek	Astros	25	7	0	9.1	39	12	2	26.4%	9.4%	81
Cam Bedrosian	Angels	21	7	0	7.1	28	10	2	26.9%	10.1%	82

On Thomas La Stella
Atlanta middle-infield prospect Thomas La Stella appears to remain indefatigable so far as his plate-discipline is concerned in the AFL. The relevant figures for The Star over the past week: 12 PA, 3 BB, 0 K. “Decidedly indefatigable,” one is compelled to say.

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On Alex Meyer and Kyle Crick
For various reasons, the AFL doesn’t generally feature as much in the way of pitching as hitting talent. Very hard-throwing and equally right-handed prospects Alex Meyer (Minnesota) and Kyle Crick (San Francisco) are somewhat the exception in this regard, then. Meyer appeared in last week’s report, since which time he’s made an additional start, recording a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 19 batters over 5.2 innings in same. Crick makes his debut on the pitching leaderboard this week, following a Friday start during which he struck out five of 10 batters faced over 3.0 innings, walking none.

On Nick Wittgren
Former ninth-round pick and current Miami relief prospect Nick Wittgren was excellent this week, producing the following line: 2.0 IP, 10 TBF, 5 K, 0 BB. He was excellent in 2013 at High-A Jupiter, as well, producing this different line: 54.1 IP, 214 TBF, 27.6% K, 4.7% BB. One supposes it’s entirely possible that he’ll be something like excellent as a major-leaguer at some point. Excellent for a reliever, at least.

Here’s video of Wittgren from one of his recent appearances, during which one finds him throwing an 80 mph breaking ball for a strikeout (0:12), an 82 mph breaking ball for a strikeout (0:20), and then a probably less well-placed breaking ball at 81 mph for a fly out (0:35).

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG