Phillies Face Reality, Re-Sign Realmuto

On Tuesday afternoon, the Phillies answered one of the biggest questions of their offseason in decidedly positive fashion, reportedly coming to terms with J.T. Realmuto on a five-year, $115.5 million contract. A physical is still pending, but the contract will keep Realmuto in Philly until the end of the 2025 season assuming all goes well. The number-one free agent in our offseason top 50, Realmuto’s signing removes the best option for anyone looking to make a race-changing upgrade at catcher.

The Philadelphia Phillies and JT Realmuto are in agreement on a 5 year $115.5 million dollar contract. Pending physical. Per source.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) January 26, 2021

It’s hard to overstate Realmuto’s importance to the Phillies. Indeed, his presence is so crucial that if Philadelphia were for some reason only able to retain one of him or Bryce Harper, I’d have to choose Realmuto, a two-time All-Star who has led the team in WAR over the last two seasons. Harper’s a very fine player and will likely still be in baseball years after Realmuto retires, but the short-term alternatives behind the plate looked bleak if the organization had had to scramble for a Plan B. There’s no combination of Andrew Knapp, Rafael Marchan, and non-roster invitee Christian Bethancourt that would have given the Phillies a fighting chance to avoid being near the bottom of the league at the position. Nor would the free agent options have provided a panacea; James McCann, Jason Castro, and Kurt Suzuki are already gone, and Yadier Molina is ancient.

Since Realmuto’s .303/.343/.428 breakout in 2016, only Yasmani Grandal ranks higher in WAR. WAR isn’t perfect, of course, but only Buster Posey is within shouting distance. Given that Posey is four years older and already showing signs of significant decline, I doubt many would dispute that Realmuto is a top-two catcher league-wide going into this season.

I have been using $7 million per win in my projections this offseason, a decline from previous estimations given the financial uncertainty facing baseball, with 4% yearly growth. With this assumption, ZiPS would project Realmuto to receive a $116.2 million contract, within a million bucks of the actual $115.5 number.

Per source: Realmuto's contract includes a $1 million assignment clause if he’s traded. He'll earn $20 million in 2021 ($10 million deferred, paid $5 million each in 2026 and 2027). He'll earn $23.875 million per season from 2022-25.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 26, 2021

Per source: Realmuto's contract includes a $1 million assignment clause if he’s traded. He'll earn $20 million in 2021 ($10 million deferred, paid $5 million each in 2026 and 2027). He'll earn $23.875 million per season from 2022-25.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 26, 2021

The contract appears to be mostly straight-up meat-and-potatoes, with no buyouts, team options, incentives, or opt-out seasons. The only bits of garnish are the assignment fee, intended as a minor speed bump if the Phillies want to trade Realmuto, and the deferred 2021 salary. The deferred money reduces the present value of the contract by about $1.5 million, as a back-of-envelope calculation, and has the additional benefit, for the Phillies, of shifting costs to a season that (hopefully) will take place in a normal world with people able to attend games in person.

Yes, Realmuto’s new deal is for considerably more than Grandal received (four years, $73 million), but there are a couple caveats involved. Grandal was a year older when he signed, though that year is a bigger deal than it might initially sound; Realmuto’s projected five-year deal goes from $116.2 million to $101.2 million if I tell ZiPS that he was born in 1990 instead of 1991. And when it comes down to it, Grandal was simply a great deal for the White Sox.

When a team signs a long-term deal with a free agent who is never projected to drop much below league average, it’s hard to come out that poorly in the end. Deals like the Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera contracts, on the other hand, left their clubs projected to receive below-average play for the majority of their respective contracts.

If anything, one could argue that the teams are underrating just how durable catchers will be. A first base version of Grandal or Realmuto might get a six or a seven-year deal. ZiPS saw both as aging well in five years and historically, long-term catcher projections haven’t been any less accurate, either in terms of playing-time or quality, than projections at other positions.

The Phillies find themselves on dangerous ground, a contender that isn’t actually contending. 2020 was the third consecutive season the team hovered around .500.

With Realmuto back on the roster, let’s re-roll some NL East projections.

The projections outline the basic problem for the Phillies. Bringing back Realmuto doesn’t make them a top contender, it can only get them back to where they were with Realmuto in tow. A 90-win season isn’t completely out of the question — projections have a great deal of uncertainty — but the team still could use a better second baseman, another outfielder (two, really), another starting pitcher, and some additional relief help.

Bringing Realmuto back was absolutely necessary for the Philadelphia Phillies. There’s also a great deal more work to do if the team is ever going to match the promise they had three or four years ago. It’s going to take imagination, guts, and a willingness to use cash.