Philly-ing Up: Luzardo Inks a Five-Year Extension

With Ranger Suarez now a Red Sock, Zack Wheeler rehabbing from thoracic outlet surgery, and Aaron Nola trying to rebound from a career-worst season, the Phillies rotation has its share of uncertainty as the 2026 regular season approaches. On Monday, the team did its best to bolster that unit for the longer term, agreeing to a five-year, $135 million extension with lefty Jesús Luzardo.

The 28-year-old Luzardo is coming off an impressive first season with the Phillies, who acquired him (along with catching prospect Paul McIntosh) from the Marlins in December 2024 in exchange for two prospects, shortstop Starlyn Caba and outfielder Emaarion Boyd. After making just 12 starts for Miami in 2024 due to elbow tightness and a stress reaction in his lower back, Luzardo made a full complement of 32 starts last year while setting career highs with 183.2 innings and 5.3 WAR, both second on the team behind Cristopher Sánchez. Both his 2.90 FIP and 3.33 xERA — each of which ranked fourth in the National League — make better cases for the quality of his pitching than his 3.92 ERA; in fact, the gap between his ERA and FIP was the third-highest among all qualifiers:

Strangely enough, all 10 of those pitchers hail from the NL; José Soriano, who had the largest gap in the American League at 0.53 runs (4.26 ERA, 3.73 FIP), ranked 11th among qualifiers, just below the cutoff in the table above.

As to the discrepancy, Luzardo put up impressive peripherals, most notably the NL’s fourth-highest strikeout rate (28.5%) and third-highest strikeout-to-walk differential (21%), as well as the seventh-lowest home run rate (0.78 per nine), but he also had the fourth-highest BABIP (.324), 28 points above his previous career norm. That owed something to the Phillies’ notorious defense, as the team’s pitchers had a .299 BABIP, the sixth highest in the majors and 10 points above the major league average. The damage wrought by Luzardo’s BABIP could have been worse had he not done such a good job of suppressing hard contact. His 6.6% barrel rate matched his career low and placed in the 78th percentile among qualifiers, while his 37.1% hard-hit rate and 88.5 mph average exit velocity were both his best since 2020, with the former placing in the 77th percentile and the latter in the 69th percentile.

Luzardo’s big step forward — and it was a big step forward, given his career 4.29 ERA, 4.16 xERA, and 3.97 FIP — owed plenty to the addition of a sweeper to his arsenal. He was coming off an injury-shortened season in which he posted a 5.00 ERA and 4.26 FIP with stuff that wasn’t up to its usual quality according to our pitch modeling systems; most notably, his average four-seam velocity fell from 96.7 mph in 2023 to 95.2 in ’24. He needed a new weapon, and as Ben Clemens noted in May, his ability to throw an excellent slider made the sweeper a natural choice. He threw the new offering 31% of the time (52% of the time to lefties, 25% to righties), and with similar frequencies at the start of an at-bat (31%) and with two strikes (33%). He didn’t abandon his old slider, throwing it 7.7% of the time (2.4% to lefties, 9.2% to righties). The two pitches had nearly a nine-inch difference in horizontal movement, and batters couldn’t do much with either; they hit .178 and slugged .264 against the sweeper, with a 43.7% whiff rate, and hit .177 and slugged .242 against the slider, with a 36.4% whiff rate. According to Statcast’s run values, Luzardo and Garrett Crochet had the most valuable sweepers in the major last year, 15 runs above average. Luzardo’s four-seamer averaged a robust 96.5 mph, and his changeup remained a strong weapon, with batters (mostly righties) hitting .224 and slugging .315 against a pitch whose whiff rate (36.2%) and run value (six above average) both cracked the majors’ top 10.

Luzardo would have been eligible for free agency after this season, an unsettling prospect for the Phillies given the uncertainties around Wheeler and Nola, not to mention the fifth-starter slot. The unit ranks third on our projection-driven Depth Charts, but it’s not hard to envision how things can go sideways. The 35-year-old Wheeler, who has suggested he’ll retire after his contract expires in 2027, underwent rib removal surgery in September to alleviate venous thoracic outlet surgery; fortunately, his rehab appears to be going smoothly, with early signs pointing to a May return. The 32-year-old Nola is coming off a dreadful season in which he missed three months due to a right ankle sprain and was lit for a 6.01 ERA in 94.1 innings; he’s still owed over $122 million through 2030, so the Phillies have to hope last year was an aberration. The 33-year-old Taijuan Walker is coming off a 4.08 ERA and 5.07 FIP in a season split between the bullpen and rotation. He and 22-year-old Top 100 prospect Andrew Painter, who scuffled in the minors last year after missing two full seasons due to a UCL sprain and mid-2023 Tommy John surgery, are both likely to start the season in the rotation while Wheeler rehabs.

The 29-year-old Sánchez, the resident ace after a 6.4-WAR season and a second-place finish in the NL Cy Young voting, is the affordable one, signed through 2028 on a four-year, $22.5 million extension that also includes a couple of club options. As for Luzardo, his $11 million salary for this year remains unchanged; his new deal runs from 2027–31 and is tied with Chris Sale’s recent extension for the 15th-highest current or upcoming contract for a pitcher, just ahead of that of Suarez, whom the Phillies let walk after he declined their $22.05 million qualifying offer:

The deal reportedly includes a $32.5 million club option for 2032, as well as an escalator clause that raises Luzardo’s annual salary by $2 million following a top-five finish in the Cy Young voting.

Coincidentally enough, just yesterday Dan Szymborski cited Luzardo as one of seven players he felt teams should sign to long-term extensions now rather than waiting. Here’s the ZiPS projection again:

ZiPS only valued Luzardo’s five years at $91 million, regarding which Szymborski wrote, “I know about Luzardo’s injury history, of course, but I think ZiPS is selling him incredibly low here. I certainly don’t envision $91 million getting the job done, but I’d be willing, in Philadelphia’s position, to go far higher.”

It’s Luzardo’s injury history that’s suppressing those innings totals. While he’s gone to the post 32 times apiece in two of the past three seasons, in addition to his shortened 2024, he managed just 18 starts in ’22 due to a forearm strain, and 25 starts in ’21 due to a left pinky fracture. In the minors, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016, and missed about four months due to rotator cuff and lat strains in ’19 as well.

Luzardo appears to be in fine working condition right now (knock on wood). His extension mitigates some of the risk of assuming the same will be true in eight months while guaranteeing him a contract that was surpassed in total value by only one free agent this past winter, namely Dylan Cease via his seven-year, $210 million deal, and in AAV by only Cease and Framber Valdez. In that light, Luzardo has done quite well for himself.