Picking the 2015 American League All-Stars
Yesterday, we tackled the National League’s 34 most deserving candidates, so today, we’ll do the American League. When it comes to picking players, I lean very heavily towards in-season performance, as I tend towards the camp that sees the game as a reward for the players more than a showcase for the fans. It is both, of course, and trying to serve both masters can make for some tricky decisions, but I’d rather reward a deserving player for a big first half than simply invite the same players every year based on their legacy. I know others see it differently, and that’s fine; I personally just find it more interesting to recognize performance than name-value.
In putting this together, I broke the 34 roster spots into 21 position players and 13 pitchers, and I also held to the rule that every team had to be represented. Injured players were not considered, so while Andrew Miller will likely be picked and then replaced, I didn’t bother with that formality. And while the only stat listed is a player’s WAR, it’s just there for reference; I didn’t select the players based solely on their WAR totals. Oh, and for pitchers, the WAR listed is a 50/50 blend of FIP-based and RA9-based WAR.
Okay, on to the team. We’ll go position by position, with the starter listed first.
Catcher
Russell Martin, Toronto: +2.9 WAR
Stephen Vogt, Oakland: +2.9 WAR
Brian McCann, New York: +2.1 WAR
Vogt’s having the better offensive season, and by Statcorner’s framing metric, he’s very slightly ahead in a part of catcher defense we’re not measuring, but I’ll still take Martin as the starter. His track record and his strong history of defensive work behind the plate give him a slight edge for me, though certainly Vogt has played exceptionally well in the first half of the season, and it wouldn’t be any kind of injustice if he started instead. McCann is a pretty easy pick as the third catcher, as he’s having a strong rebound season, and there are a lack of quality alternatives; sorry, Royals fans, but Salvador Perez doesn’t belong this year.
First Base
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit: +3.5 WAR
Albert Pujols, Anaheim: +2.1 WAR
Cabrera remains a dominant force as a hitter, and unlike in the National League, the first base crop in the AL is pretty weak, so Cabrera is a slam-dunk selection as the starter. Pujols has slugged his way back into consideration for a spot after a couple of down years, and edges out Eric Hosmer and Mark Teixeira for the backup role. With more deserving candidates elsewhere and a couple of actual DHs to fill those roles, I’m only taking two first baseman from the AL.
Second Base
Jason Kipnis, Cleveland: +4.6 WAR
Brian Dozier, Minnesota: +2.9 WAR
Kipnis has been a monster for the Indians, and has run away from the pack as the deserving starter this year, though that’s no disrespect to Dozier, who continues to establish himself as one of the game’s most underrated stars. Both are terrific players, but Kipnis has just been a little more terrific this year.
Shortstop
Jose Iglesias, Detroit: +2.0 WAR
Xander Bogaerts, Boston: +1.9 WAR
Carlos Correa, Houston: +1.3 WAR
The current crop of shortstops in the AL is as weak as it has been in some time, but Iglesias is hitting surprisingly well, and his glove remains a legitimate asset, so he’s a pretty easy call as the starter. Bogaerts hasn’t yet developed the power he was projected to have as a prospect, but has settled in as a decent contact hitter and has improved dramatically on defense, so he gets the call behind Iglesias. Correa, though, looks like the future of this position, and has destroyed American League pitching since getting the call to the big leagues. Even in just 90 plate appearances, he’s been roughly as valuable as Alcides Escobar or Brad Miller has over the whole year, so I’ll take his elite performance in a smaller sample.
Third Base
Josh Donaldson, Toronto: +4.3 WAR
Manny Machado, Baltimore: +3.6 WAR
Mike Moustakas, Kansas City: +2.4 WAR
Donaldson is probably the frontrunner for AL MVP at the moment, as he remains one of the game’s truly elite players, so while Machado is quickly developing into a superstar, this is still Donaldson’s position for now. Machado can take over next year, and it isn’t clear that he’ll be dethroned any time soon, but his coronation will have to wait one more year. Moustakas gets the call over Evan Longoria for the last reserve spot here, though it was mostly a coin toss, and you could easily defend either selection.
Outfield
Mike Trout, Anaheim: +4.3 WAR
Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City: +2.9 WAR
Brett Gardner, New York: +2.7 WAR
Alex Gordon, Kansas City: +2.6 WAR
Jose Bautista, Toronto: +2.5 WAR
Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay: +3.1 WAR
Mike Trout is still Mike Trout, and then flanking him, we find a number of elite defenders having strong offensive seasons. Cain continues to improve at the plate while playing ridiculous defense in center field, and is establishing himself as a true star at this point. Gardner, interestingly enough, has a higher wRC+ than Bautista, and has developed into a legitimate offensive threat even while his defense has regressed as he’s gotten older. Gordon is having his typical Alex Gordon season, while Kiermaier is doing a pretty good Lorenzo Cain impersonation. If there aren’t enough home runs in this group for your liking, you could easily argue for Yoenis Cespedes, George Springer, or J.D. Martinez, but I’ll take the more well-rounded guys.
Designated Hitter
Prince Fielder, Texas: +1.9 WAR
Nelson Cruz, Seattle: +2.1 WAR
The AL is crowded with DH candidates this year, as Cruz is realistically a DH even if the Mariners have inexplicably made him an outfielder again. With real outfielders on this roster, though, there’s no need for Cruz to bring his glove to Cincinnati. And yes, Alex Rodriguez probably deserves a spot on this team, given how well he’s hit, but he’s not having a clearly better season than either Fielder or Cruz, and it’s tough to carry three DHs, so he’s the last guy I had to cut to get down to 34.
Starting Pitcher
Chris Sale, Chicago: +2.9 WAR
Dallas Keuchel, Houston: +3.5 WAR
Sonny Gray, Oakland: +3.4 WAR
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay: +3.2 WAR
David Price, Detroit: +2.8 WAR
Corey Kluber, Cleveland: +2.3 WAR
Felix Hernandez, Seattle: +2.2 WAR
Clay Buchholz, Boston: +2.2 WAR
Sale is probably the best pitcher in the AL at this point, and even if he doesn’t have the shiniest ERA in this group, I’ll put him on the hill in the first inning rather than punish him for pitching in front of some really terrible teammates. Keuchel, Gray, and Archer are the best of the breakout arms we’ve seen this year, and you could make a strong case for any of them getting the start; they’ve all been that good. Price, Kluber, and Hernandez are having just decent years by their own standards, but excellent year’s by anyone’s measure of performance, and are all still easily worth selecting. Buchholz is the rare Red Sox pitcher who is getting people out, and I’m not going to hold Hanley Ramirez’s defense against him.
With apologies to Scott Kazmir, Ubaldo Jimenez, and yes, Hector Santiago — I’m as surprised as you are — I only selected eight starting pitchers from the AL, because there were just too many great relief seasons to limit myself to four bullpen arms. If you have a strong preference for starting pitchers, you could grab one of those three and not be sorry about it.
Relief Pitcher
Dellin Betances, New York: +1.7 WAR
Wade Davis, Kansas City: +1.6 WAR
Glen Perkins, Minnesotsa: +1.2 WAR
Roberto Osuna, Toronto: +1.2 WAR
Zach Britton, Baltimore: +1.1 WAR
And this is without Andrew Miller, who would have been an easy pick if healthy. There’s just so much depth in the AL bullpens right now, and even taking these five, we’re ignoring guys like David Robertson and Carson Smith. Good luck to the National League trying to mount a comeback if they don’t get an early lead.
With those picks, we get the following starting line-up:
1. Jason Kipnis, 2B
2. Mike Trout, RF
3. Prince Fielder, DH
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B
6. Brett Gardner, LF
7. Russell Martin, C
8. Lorenzo Cain, CF
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
The line-up isn’t as intimidating as the National League’s group of hitters, but this is one hell of a defensive team, and with Bautista, Cruz, and Pujols on the bench, there should be plenty of options for pinch-hitting if need be. It’s not a traditional All-Star line-up, but the AL isn’t full of muscle-bound sluggers anymore, and this group represents what the game looks like in 2015.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


One starting Royal. Yep…
This article is a joke.
Just like your managing skills Ned.
The lack of royals jabs in this article is saddening.
I usually don’t care about ASG stuff. I’m fine with voting based on current-year performance, big names, or the truly best players. Those are all legitimate viewpoints.
But Omar Infante is none of the above. He’s a mediocre player having a crappy year. He cannot be allowed to start in the all-star game. Someone please stop this from happening.
As long as we’re not arguing that the NL is better than the AL.
Despite the AL being a bit different of a product, it’s still the superior league. In a down year they’re still 86-70 vs the NL.
As always the bottom of the NL is worse than the bottom of the AL but aside from that the leagues are relatively equal.
even the top NL teams are barely over .500 vs the AL.
And yet “barely over .500” means “beat the other guys more than the other guys beat them” which is the usual definition of better.
Well, yeah. The top NL teams are better than the average AL teams. I don’t think that’s the question at hand though.
I would argue its about roster construction. The a.l. Teams pay a guy just to hit, gives them an advantage at home and on the road as he is most likely the best pinch hitter on either team.
If that’s actually more of an advantage in a NL park than the NL roster construction, then I have a suggestion for NL GMs about a market inefficiency in their league.
Either way, you’re paying for 25 regular roster spots, if NL teams don’t have an advantage at home from being built for NL rules, then either the rules make a negligible difference, or the NL is doing a bad job of building their rosters.
That’s not really an inefficiency though, because a good DH makes a lot of money. The AL has an advantage when they can have someone like Ortiz as a pinch hitter – but it wouldn’t make sense for an NL team to pay him significant coin to be a pinch hitter.
But the NL team gets to spread the DH money to other spots on the roster. It doesn’t just disappear because there’s one less position to fill.
Optimal roster construction for 3-6 games isn’t necessarily the same as it would be for a full season of games. That being said, which league is better has basically no relevance to anything, no matter which definition of “better” that can’t be agreed upon is used.
AL is 36-39 in NL parks
AL is 50-31 in AL parks
I would think, although is not always the case, that NL teams would have better hitters throughout their 8 fielders than an AL roster who is afforded to play one subpar hitter, who is an exceptional fielder, because there is no pitcher hitting.
Road vs home records obviously are not equal, meaning the NL 3 game lead is negated by the fact that they were probably the favorite in that 75 game sample.
I don’t think the average AL DH is 19 games better than the 9 player on an NL roster.
The ASG game would be much more exciting and entertaining with the two lineups you have outlined, Dave.
Are you saying you don’t want to see Infante start?!? That’s crazy talk!
Not a single word on the atrocity that is Omar Infante. Cold, Cameron, ice cold.
But, once again, there’s one spot where I’d like to contest your choice.
Russell Martin is indeed having a great year so far, but in my opinion his real value to his team doesn’t come close to Vogt’s. Everything Bagel has won so many games for the A’s this year with timely, clutch hitting. Heck, he’s slashing .386/.432/.800 with RISP and .393/.471/.714 in high leverage situations.
He’s also been surrounded by Brett Lawrie, Billy Bu(s)tler and half of Ben Zobrist while Russell Martin has Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and even that crazy Colabello guy around him.
Without Martin, the Jays would be worse, but not WAY worse.
Without Vogt the A’s would be…well, still last, but not because of bad luck, but rather because they deserved it.
Two Proposals for Making the All-Star Game Awesome
1. Require Mike Trout and Bryce Harper to pitch to each other.
2. Require Jose Altuve to play all nine innings, and all nine positions.
I don’t follow your second proposal. Wouldn’t that be better for someone like Justin Turner or (when he was better) Ben Zobrist, as a lot of their value is in their ability to play multiple positions? Or someone like Prince Fielder, just to watch him at SS and CF?
I think he’s more going for the novelty of what Altuve is. I mean, you probably could market him pretty well.
WBE is probably referring to this: http://www.fangraphs.com/not/dangerous-experiment-a-roster-of-25-adam-dunns/
I wasn’t, but of course, every day when I get to spend a moment thinking about this article is a day well-spent.
Still my favorite FanGraphs article ever.
Upon re-re-re-reading that article, I cracked up giggling at my desk once again. Patrick Dubuque’s “Some managers just like to play the matchups, I guess” comment makes me lose it every time.
My favorite thing about Pujols this year is he’s doing this on a 0.224 BABIP. HE’S STRUCK OUT LESS THAN 20 TIMES. What a year.
That’s just not true …
He’s struck out 29 times, which is 10 more than less than 20.
I just checked that, and yes, whoops. Still, 29 times is not very many times, and the BABIP hopefully points to him doing even better after the break
Yes, but how many of those were intentional strikeouts?
We really need a breakdown of unintentional vs intentional strike-outs. Intention: the new frontier of sabermetrics.
I’d love, love, love to see Arod as a contender for the last guy in, just to see how (if at all) the Yankees campaign for him.
I’d vote for him 35 times.
BRETT GARDNER LOVE. So awesome, even though Cameron/Fangraphs is always kind to him.
Hope you enjoy watching me and my friends in Cincinatti.
Brock Holt deserves a spot.
For me to poop on!
It would not surprise me to see this. He could be the token utility guy.
Despite limited playing time (231 PA’s), he ranks 21st in the AL in WAR. If you look at WAR as a rate stat (minimum 150 PA’s), he moves up to 10th in the AL.
WAR/600 PA:
Jason Kipnis, 8.0
Mike Trout, 7.9
Josh Donaldson, 7.6
Kevin Kiermaier, 7.3
Miguel Cabrera, 6.7
Manny Machado, 6.6
Russell Martin, 6.5
Lorenzo Cain, 6.2
Stephen Vogt, 6.1
Brock Holt, 5.7
Brock Holt!
Brock Holt?.. pleeeeease. 5.7 WAR/600 PA. Sure. Could happen. Except that he has never even accumulated 500 PA in a real MLB season. And he hasn’t even totalled 5.7 WAR in his MLB career to date.
He’s 27, and not some fresh faced super-hyped rookie who is breaking onto the scene.
This is just like the people that wanted Daniel Nava in the ASG when he had that great half a season. How’d that end up?
All-Star is an admittedly nebulous concept. I just know that Brock Holt is not one. Not yet anyway.
let’s see what a rudimentary 2014-15 WAR/650pa (min 600pa) tool spits out for the position players:
CF Trout 7.7 ——— Kiermaier 7.5 —- Cain 6.5
RF Bautista 5.9 —— Jones 5.2 ——— Reddick 4.3
LF Gordon 6.5 ——– Brantley 5.2 —— Martinez 5.1
3B Donaldson 6.8 —– Machado 5.6 ——- Beltre 5.0
SS A.Escobar 3.4 —– Aybar 3.4 ———- Hardy 3.3
2B Dozier 4.8 ——– Zobrist 4.7 ——– Pedroia 4.6
1B Cabrera 5.5 ——- Abreu 4.5 ———- Pujols 3.2
DH Cruz 3.6 ———- Encarnacion 3.5 —- Martinez 2.8
C Martin 7.0 ——— Gomes 4.8 ———- McCann 3.6
not bad.
Man, Trout’s really slacking.
Nowhere near my 9.1 WAR/650pa
And, once again, a call for considering players based on their past full year of work since the last ASG.
Why limited to just “qualifying” batters?
Wait. Cruz’s WAR is higher than Fielder’s but Fielder is the starting DH?
Playing time
In the event where two players are nearly tied (and Cruz has only 0.2 WAR on Fielder), the spot generally goes to the player with the longer track record, with exciting rookies being an exception to that rule.
Fielder (28.8 career WAR) has a longer track record than Cruz (18.7 career WAR), so he gets the starting spot.
Also, it actually isn’t. Cruz’s WAR is 1.7, not 2.1.
Their wRC+ are 157 and 158. Fielder has 23 more PAs in one more game. I’d say this is pretty much a tossup so you go with the guy who will one day be enshrined in the Hall of Pretty Good.
Also he’s left handed and two, four, and five in the order are righties. But this is honestly a toss up.
This is a great list of AL stars!I think Holland might make it onto this roster over Osuna, but Roberto has certainly been the better pitcher. Also, Perez is nipping on McCann’s heals he may very well overtake him if he gets hot. If he learns to frame he’s going to be a beast.
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Is that the old Brewers logo?
No, that one looks like this.
I’m pretty sure RoyalsFan here is displaying the logo the Phillies have lately been forcing their fans to buy. (Strangely, it’s also the logo MLB uses for the A’s.)
Looks like the batting glove I personally stitched for Bryce Harper.
It’s amazing how quickly a mass of annoying bandwagon fans and a team full of jabronies can vaporize any goodwill the rest of the country had for those former lovable losers.
The Royals would typically be the type of other-city team I would want to pull for. But seriously, just go away.
I could not agree more. I grew up a George Brett fan and the Royals have always been my favorite AL team but the obnoxiousness of these Royals bandwagon fans and the ridiculousness of voting even the most undeserving Royals onto the All Star team make me want to pull for anyone but the Royals.
Royals fans, remember it wasn’t all that long ago when all you had was 1 token undeserving All Star who only made the team because every team had to be represented. And this happened year after year after year. Try a little humility.
Not surprising, these are the same fans who classlessly boo’ed Robinson Cano, an AL player, at their own ASG because he didn’t pick the immortal Billy Butler for the Home Run Derby.
Everything’s up to date in Kansas city
They’ve gone about as fer as they can go
They went and stuffed the ballots
To demand our full respect
Not thinking all their favorites
Would make the game a royal wreck!!
waiting for the first person to say it was will parker, not curly
This obviously can’t be right…needs more Royals…and more cow bell.
‘Donaldson is probably the frontrunner for AL MVP at the moment,’
My preseason pick for MVP.
Where’s Jose Altuve?
Look lower.
Spoken like a true yankee fan. Lost me with the a-rod nonsense.
lol @ Dave Cameron as a Yankee fan
Indeed. Which is even funnier than the thought of a pro-ARod Yankees fan. But, as is usually the case in internet comments, the cries of “bias” says more about the crier than the target.
Altuve is worthy of being around 4th or 5th in the AL at 2B at this point.
Alex Rodriguez is having a clearly better season than Fielder or Cruz. 2.1 WAR for Rodriguez, 1.7 for Cruz, and 1.9 for Fielder. The only reason to keep him out is character concerns. It is arguable that Cruz provides some position versatility with his ability to play OF – yet Rodriguez can probably play 3B just as well.
Not voting for A-Rod because he is a douche is fine, just be honest about it. Although it has some lessened credibility given Cruz’s connection with Biogenesis.
If you think a 0.2 to 0.4 difference in fWAR over half a season paints any sort of “clear” picture you don’t understand how WAR works.
I have never, ever rooted for the NL team to win the all star game, but this year will be an exception. What KC has done is an embarrassment to the game. In my wildest dreams, NL wins all star game – KC makes it to WS and loses due to NL home field advantage! Time to CHANGE the way the players are selected! The PLAYERS know who is the best at their position better than anyone!
if one were to try and make the best team out of the players mentioned, should Machado be shortstop over Iglesias?
All of my worst nightmares have come true. You nerds actually just stacked up fWAR and had a spreadsheet calculate which players are most deserving. How do you basement-dwellers find time to actually watch the games when all you do is look at calculators instead of what’s actually happening on the field? Here’s what a true fan’s MLB All Star ballot looks like:
http://twtwsports.blogspot.com/2015/06/twtws-2015-mlb-all-star-game-ballot.html
As a Royals fan, I’d say his selections are fair. As good as Salvador Perez is, he’s still incredibly overrated both nationally and locally. He’s great defensively for sure, but he’s nowhere near the offensive player Martin or Vogt are. I would say he’s more deserving than McCann but McCann’s having a good year. Cain is for sure deserving to start as is Gordon in reserve and Moustakas. However Escobar is not a top 3 AL shortstop and the fact that Infante is still leading at 2B is just a further indictment of the KC fan base that’s gone from lovable underdogs to the most hated team in the majors. And going to games and seeing the antics of the fan, KC deserves it. It’s becoming harder and harder to root for this team even though they’re winning because of the jackass fans and immature arrogant players.
If you are going to choose based on recent performance, couldn’t you at lease go from the last All-Star game? Half a season is just too small a sample size to pick an All-Star.