Pittsburgh Pirates Top 50 Prospects

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Konnor Griffin | 20.1 | MLB | SS | 2026 | 70 |
| 2 | Bubba Chandler | 23.7 | MLB | SP | 2026 | 60 |
| 3 | Seth Hernandez | 19.9 | A+ | SP | 2028 | 60 |
| 4 | Edward Florentino | 19.6 | A+ | RF | 2029 | 50 |
| 5 | Johan De Los Santos | 17.9 | A | CF | 2031 | 45+ |
| 6 | Wyatt Sanford | 20.5 | A+ | SS | 2029 | 45+ |
| 7 | Wilber Dotel | 23.7 | MLB | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 8 | Esmerlyn Valdez | 22.4 | MLB | LF | 2026 | 45 |
| 9 | Jhostynxon Garcia | 23.5 | MLB | CF | 2026 | 45 |
| 10 | Murf Gray | 22.4 | A+ | 3B | 2029 | 45 |
| 11 | Hunter Barco | 25.5 | MLB | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 12 | Khristian Curtis | 24.1 | AA | SP | 2027 | 45 |
| 13 | Duce Gourson | 23.7 | AA | 3B | 2027 | 45 |
| 14 | Termarr Johnson | 22.0 | AAA | 2B | 2027 | 45 |
| 15 | Rafael Flores Jr. | 25.6 | MLB | C | 2026 | 40+ |
| 16 | Axiel Plaz | 20.8 | A+ | C | 2028 | 40+ |
| 17 | Darell Morel | 18.7 | A | SS | 2031 | 40+ |
| 18 | Tony Blanco Jr. | 21.1 | A+ | 1B | 2028 | 40+ |
| 19 | Antwone Kelly | 22.8 | AAA | SIRP | 2026 | 40+ |
| 20 | Jesus Travieso | 19.2 | A | SIRP | 2029 | 40+ |
| 21 | Estuar Suero | 20.8 | A | RF | 2028 | 40+ |
| 22 | Reinold Navarro | 19.6 | A | SIRP | 2029 | 40+ |
| 23 | Thomas Harrington | 24.9 | MLB | SP | 2026 | 40 |
| 24 | Matt Ager | 23.0 | AA | SP | 2027 | 40 |
| 25 | Levi Sterling | 19.8 | A | SP | 2029 | 40 |
| 26 | Easton Carmichael | 22.6 | A+ | C | 2029 | 40 |
| 27 | Brandan Bidois | 25.0 | MLB | SIRP | 2026 | 40 |
| 28 | Derek Diamond | 25.4 | AA | SIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 29 | Jack Brannigan | 25.2 | AA | SS | 2027 | 40 |
| 30 | Keiner Delgado | 22.4 | AA | SS | 2028 | 40 |
| 31 | Yordany De Los Santos | 21.3 | A+ | SS | 2029 | 40 |
| 32 | Sammy Stafura | 21.6 | A+ | SS | 2029 | 40 |
| 33 | Carlson Reed | 23.5 | A+ | MIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 34 | Jaden Woods | 24.3 | AA | SIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 35 | Edgleen Perez | 20.0 | A | C | 2029 | 40 |
| 36 | Jeancer Custodio | 17.6 | R | RF | 2032 | 40 |
| 37 | Wilton Guerrero Jr. | 17.0 | R | SS | 2032 | 35+ |
| 38 | Tyler Callihan | 25.9 | MLB | 2B | 2026 | 35+ |
| 39 | Billy Cook | 27.4 | MLB | CF | 2026 | 35+ |
| 40 | Nick Yorke | 24.2 | MLB | 2B | 2026 | 35+ |
| 41 | Cy Nielson | 25.3 | AA | SIRP | 2027 | 35+ |
| 42 | Cam Sanders | 29.5 | MLB | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 43 | Omar Alfonzo | 22.8 | AA | C | 2027 | 35+ |
| 44 | Irwin Ramirez | 19.4 | R | SP | 2031 | 35+ |
| 45 | David Matoma | 20.3 | A | SIRP | 2028 | 35+ |
| 46 | McLane Moody | 19.7 | R | SP | 2031 | 35+ |
| 47 | Neomar Urbina | 17.7 | R | SIRP | 2032 | 35+ |
| 48 | Hyun Seung Lee | 18.3 | A | 3B | 2031 | 35+ |
| 49 | Gustavo Melendez | 18.6 | R | SS | 2031 | 35+ |
| 50 | Jared Jones | 22.8 | A+ | 1B | 2029 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Power-Over-Hit Guys
Javier Rivas, INF
Jhonny Severino, 3B
Callan Moss, 1B
Lonnie White Jr., OF
Carter Gwost, OF
Rivas is a very projectable 6-foot-6 infielder who, aside from his stint in hitter-friendly Greensboro, has never produced on offense. Still, Rivas’ size (we’re talking big NFL receiver size) and infield fit are a rare combo. He’s going to play for as long as he can hack it at shortstop and could end up with huge power in his late 20s. He’s a looming minor league free agent of note. Severino, who was acquired from Milwaukee for Carlos Santana a few years ago, has exciting power for a 21-year-old and he can really play third base. But he’s chase-prone to such a degree that it threatens to undo him against big league stuff. He’s begun playing some left field because of how crowded it is in Greensboro. Moss, who is cousins with former NFL running backs Cedric Peerman and Donald Brown, was acquired from Kansas City for Bailey Falter last year. A Division II (Saint Leo’s) undrafted free agent, he hit well in his first two pro seasons (.287/.384/.457 at High-A in 2025) but is currently struggling at Altoona. When you combine the past two seasons, Moss is an average contact hitter with above-average raw power on paper. He’s a stiff-legged guy with a funky swing whose plate coverage might not allow his recent contact rates (around 75%) to persist. White was a two-sport athlete committed to Clemson and then Penn State, but he instead signed with the Pirates out of high school. A better fit in an outfield corner, he struck out more than a third of the time in 2024 and 2025, but has cut the K’s a ton so far in 2026, including after a recent promotion to Altoona. Is it sustainable? He’s so comically geared to pull that I’m skeptical. Gwost is a very physical 6-foot-4 lefty-hitting outfielder who signed for about $500,000 rather than go to Nebraska. He’s struggling to adjust to pro pitching in the FCL and striking out north of 40% of the time.
Contact-Oriented Reserves
Mitch Jebb, CF
Will Taylor, OF
Jesus Castillo, INF
Dylan Palmer, 2B/CF
Fredderick Ovalle, 2B/3B/LF
Jebb is a former slash-and-dash infielder who moved to center field in a full-time capacity last year. His profile has turned completely on its head this season, with much more power and less contact than before, albeit in a very small sample because Jebb injured his hand/wrist diving headfirst into first base in late April. Taylor went to Clemson, where he briefly played wide receiver, and took until his junior year to break out. He’s a speedy, oppo-oriented depth outfielder. Castillo, 22, has the best barrel feel of this group, but also the least power and size (he’s a wispy 5-foot-10). He’s also been injured and was shut down again after just two rehab games in Bradenton. Palmer is a very speedy slash-and-dash hitter out of Hofstra who lets the ball travel so deep in the zone that he’s clipping catchers’ mitts. He has prior experience in center field, a position he’s revisiting now, but mostly played second and third base at Hofstra. If he can develop into a dynamite center fielder, then he’ll be an interesting bench piece. Ovalle, 18, is a contact-oriented rookie ball left fielder (he played mostly second and third base last year) whose conservative, stride-less swing limits the kind of power he can hit for.
Early DSL Names to Know
Jhoendris Santos, SS
Carlos Tejera, CF
Mingxuan Zhang, RHP
The Pirates stream their DSL games, and that league began play this week. They have two DSL rosters, so I wasn’t able to see all of their pitchers before publication, but this is a start. Santos, who’s hitting atop the DSL Pirates Black lineup, is a very twitchy 16-year-old shortstop with exciting projection and hand speed. He won’t turn 17 until mid-July, so he’s the age of most high school juniors. In that context, he’s pretty exciting. Tejera is a projectable, lefty-hitting center fielder with explosive (if noisy) hands. Zhang, 18, is a 6-foot-7 Chinese righty who hasn’t thrown yet, but his sheer size is notable.
Sleeper Projection Arms
Angel Soriano, LHP
Claudio Estelie, RHP
Robinson Smith, RHP
Yeraldo Salcedo, LHP
Soriano, 19, spent last year in the DSL. This season, he was promoted to the FCL, where he just moved into the rotation. He’s been walk-prone early on, but his delivery is balanced and graceful. For a lefty his age, he has good arm strength (up to 95) and a promising changeup. Estelie, 22, is a projectable 6-foot-5 righty who signed last year and pitched in the DSL. He’s now in the FCL and has scraped 96. Both he and Soriano have starter-quality mechanics. Smith, currently in the FCL, is the son of three-time Australian Olympic swimmer Nicole Livingstone. The 6-foot-4 18-year-old will top out around 96. He’s throwing almost all fastballs and is clearly just getting his feet wet. Salcedo, 19, is a quick-armed little A-ball lefty who has been up to 94 and has a promising curveball. Both he and Smith are more likely to be relievers.
Fallen Famous Fellows
Dominic Perachi, LHP
Po-Yu Chen, RHP
Alessandro Ercolani, RHP
Carlos Castillo, RHP
Anthony Solometo, LHP
Jeter Martinez, RHP
Zander Mueth, RHP
Perachi had some of the best single-game statlines you’ll ever see while he was at Division III Salve Regina (they’re the Seahawks and have a 70-grade logo), and he’s had a fair amount of success as a swingman in two minor league seasons. But despite his projectability and small school pedigree, his stuff has been treading water. Chen signed for about $1.25 million, which is pretty sizable for a late-market international signee. He began his career with 26 consecutive walk-free innings, but his command has backed up as he’s climbed the minors, and his stuff remains fringy. Both those guys look like Triple-A depth arms. Ercolani hails from San Marino, and it will be a great story if he reaches the big leagues because he’s the country’s lone player in affiliated ball. He’s sitting 93 and has a cutter and curveball, a bit light for no-doubt relief work. Castillo is a young-for-the-level righty in Greensboro whose arm strength has plateaued in the low 90s after it looked, back in 2024, like he might on the fast track as an east/west operator. Solometo made two single-inning relief appearances in April, maxed out at 86, and was shut down with a shoulder issue. He hasn’t been healthy and pitched well since 2023. Martinez, who was acquired from the Mariners for Caleb Ferguson at last year’s deadline, was sitting 95 and touching 100 in Seattle’s system. This year in Bradenton, he’s sitting 92 and still struggling with command. At peak he looked like a potential late-inning reliever, but right now he isn’t a great prospect. Mueth was a big bonus high school pick in 2023 who looked like a Tanner Houck clone coming out. He has now struggled to throw strikes for several years and still hasn’t left Bradenton, where he’s walking eight batters per nine so far this season.
Fringe 40-Man Relievers
Michael Darrell-Hicks, RHP
Kyle Robinson, RHP
Alexis Torres, RHP
Darrell-Hicks was in Anaheim’s system as a starter and made a successful transition to the bullpen in 2024, then briefly reached the majors in 2025. He was a waiver pickup for the Pirates last year and outrighted to minor league camp in March. His fastball’s vulnerability was largely to blame for his slide off the Pirates’ 40-man, but MDH has a really good slider and could have a Collin Snider-type of career arc. A long, projectable right-hander who became a high-profile guy at Texas Tech, Robinson lasted until the 11th round of the 2024 draft after an underwhelming year. He sits 91-94 mph from a high slot and has a good changeup, but he struggles to land his slider. Torres, 23, is a 6-foot A-ball righty who K’d a batter per inning in 2025. His stuff was down a bit early this season (peaking at 97 last year, only 95 this year) before he hit the IL. He’s a bit behind the dev curve for his age, but he has the stuff of a typical sinker/slider middle-inning righty.
System Overview
The Pirates are in a fun, interesting, enviable spot. They have several of the game’s most exciting young players, including one hell of a homegrown pitching staff, and they’ve hit on enough of their recent acquisitions (Spencer Horwitz and Brandon Lowe via trade, Ryan O’Hearn in free agency) to give the lineup competitive depth and help balance out a roster that badly needed it. Their go-wide style of farm building has created enough depth that even as guys like Konnor Griffin, Bubba Chandler, Esmerlyn Valdez, and some of their other prospect arms graduate, the cupboard won’t be bare. In fact, we might be living in a reality where the Pirates are deadline buyers. Might they be best served to transact in both directions come July? Bryan Reynolds (who is set to make $15 million a year through 2030, his age-35 season) is an interesting sell-high candidate, especially if it frees up the payroll to extend Oneil Cruz and/or O’Hearn while also netting real pieces in return. And it wouldn’t preclude them from trading some of their prospects for big leaguers. Most of the small market teams that stay good behave in this way.
The Pirates entered this season with the best position player prospect in baseball (Griffin) and one of the best pitching prospects (Chandler), and they’ll end it with a different upper-echelon pitching prospect in Seth Hernandez. Their approach in each of the three realms of talent acquisition has been to target big tools and variance, often focusing on big, projectable athletes with massive power and arm strength. The rate of return on players like this, who can only be collected en masse when they come with a heaping helping of hit tool risk, is low. But it’s the player demo from which a Cruz or a Griffin emerges, and now lurking in this system are Tony Blanco Jr., Estuar Suero, Darell Morel, and (weirdly) Wyatt Sanford, among others. The only way a franchise like the Pirates can acquire a guy like Cruz is to do so before he actualizes, so it needs to be part of their strategy in the draft and international markets.
Are they developing pitchers? There are lots of hard throwers here, many of whom either have poor fastball movement or can’t throw strikes. The velo and strength and conditioning programs have been working, and now several of their pitchers’ deliveries have changed in a way that indicates the Pirates have an understanding of how to effectively change approach angles. It’s tough to quibble with a team’s pitching dev when its rotation looks like Pittsburgh’s does right now.
This is a strong system with a little bit of everything. It has several projected superstars up top, multiple high-risk/high-reward position players, lots of near-ready pitching depth, a number of role-playing hitters in line to replace some of the veterans who are on short contracts, and four of the top 51 picks in the upcoming draft.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
I’m just going to say I have lowered on Bubba a good bit, does he have nasty stuff? Absolutely, he also is running a 6.6% K-BB%, and his command is an issue to the point where none of his pitches have a very good whiff rate. He’d be a 50 for me, I don’t see what separates him from Hopkins for instance.
I was wondering if Chandler’s grade would get lowered, but I think Eric has a sound argument for maintaining the 60. Chandler is still a relatively inexperienced pitcher, having been developed partially as a position player until 2023, and he has the athleticism to become more consistent in his form and improve command. He’s young enough that there’s still reason to think he can come near his ceiling, which is high given not just the FB but changeup potential.
literally all of this can be said about Payton Tolle who is actually good, younger than Bubba, and still a 55
Per the prospect reports, they see Tolle’s best secondary as his change, which might develop into a 55. That’s the grade Chandler’s already has with hopes of a 70. That’s not a small difference. If you need to win a game tomorrow, you want Tolle, hands down – Chandler might strike a guy out on a video game pitch and then walk the next two on eight pitches. The 60 grade and writeup suggests that as Eric sees it, in two years you might prefer Chandler.
Tolle is already a top 20 starter, the stuff grades all suggest Tolle has a good curveball/changeup, he just doesn’t need to use it.
I think once a guy is in the majors for good Eric decides he has to live with it whether he looks wrong or not. I respect that. But I would absolutely think he’s not a 60 anymore and more of a 55 and you can definitely make an argument for a 50 if you want. I’m just personally not giving up on a guy with that level of talent yet.
Yes, Bubba has long since exhausted rookie eligibility. It would be quite the thumb on the scale to change his grade now.
Thinking about how the capsule on Griffin had to be edited to change AJ Brown from an Eagles receiver to a Patriots one (or it was written in expectation of the trade but that is risky with the timing).
AJ Brown is also a Padre!
MIL: 287.5
WSH: 242
LAD: 242
SEA: 241
DET: 236
STL: 227
BOS: 212.5
CLE: 200
Pitt: 199 (without bubba/griffin)
CHWS: 197
Tex: 192.5
TOR: 179.5
BAL: 169
NYM: 167.5
AZ: 167
Col: 154.5
A’s: 145
NYY: 142.5
KCR: 139
CHC: 138
CIN: 123.5
LAA: 121
PHI: 116.5
ATL: 114.5
SDP: 68.5
Hou: 60
Always appreciate you doing this. Thanks!
Agreed!
Out of curiosity, what would it be with Griffin/Bubba?
They’d be at 371, easily first even after redoing all the graduations
There are 3 guys in this farm ranking I think are 2 grades too low
Florentino: I know he has struggled to start A+, but he has a history of hitting for contact, power, and has good plate skills with a swing geared to pull fly balls. This guy is going to be a star, he’s a easy 60 FV for me.
Axiel Plaz: He’s a 45+ for me, there are some concerns defensively, but he puts up 70 grade exit velos, the potential is tantalizing.
Murf Gray: He just continues to rake in every way, above average hit+plus power plays and that is what he is showing. He’s a 50 FV for me
Given the way he hits Piaz has to be
A 50.
I am really high on Murf Gray and thought the Pirates got a steal with him. He is their third baseman of the future.
When an eighteen year old puts up those kinds of numbers then a lot of people are going to have the same reaction. Personally, I think he’s more of a 45+ than a 50 because of two main flaws. The first is a lack of power, which sounds absurd for someone who has hit 24 home runs in 496 plate appearances as a teenager, but the exit velocities tell a very different story. He’s getting those home runs by being so extreme about pulling balls in the air, not because he is demolishing baseballs. He’s going to get less and less pitches he can pull as he advances up the ladder, and unless he adds a significant amount of strength, he doesn’t have the ability to hit many home runs straight away or to the opposite field.
Secondly, Florentino is passive rather than discerning. His Z-Swing% of 58.2% (14th percentile) is as bad as his O-Swing% of 20.9% (86th percentile) is good. That should tell you that he’s not accurately differentiating balls from strikes, he’s just taking a lot of pitches except for ones in specific spots that he can pull. This is also something that works against poor command in the low minors but will be exploited at higher levels. The good news is that passivity is less of a flaw than being overly aggressive, but it’s still a flaw.
He is still just nineteen and he has the build to add muscle. If that happens and his exit velocities jump then so should his grade. But right now he’s not a plus defender, he doesn’t have plus power, and he doesn’t have a plus hit tool. 50FV is a perfectly fair grade if not a little generous.
The argument against Florentino’s power sounds absurd because it is absurd. First of all, his average exit velo in A ball this year before promotion was 94.5. Second of all again, his swing is geared for pulling flyballs, that isn’t changing. There are guys that hit for major power without elite exit velos (see max muncy/jose ramirez among others). Bat path/pullimg fly balls is a legit skill.
In fact i would guess Florentino’s exit velo data is as strong if not stronger than Leo De Vries. Another guy with a swing geared for pull power and a consensus top 10 prospect.
Maybe I am being mean but in summary, yes I think your argument is absurd.
Which is solid but nothing special. Samuel Basallo had an EV90 of 105.9 mph as an eighteen year old in 2023, which is well above what Florentino did in 2025.
It is, and like other skills, it can be taught. You can’t teach additional exit velocity. The frequency with which Florentino pulls the ball in the air gives him a high floor. The exit velocities that he produces prevent him from having a high ceiling.
Leo De Vries is a shortstop. Edward Florentino is a right fielder. Florentino’s exit velocities are roughly the same as the ones for Jesús Made, but Made is a shortstop who also has a much better hit tool.
No offense taken, but you will end up seeing that I was correct.
DeVries is a SS, Florentino is on the opposite side of the defensive spectrum. BAD comparison.
I hate that you guys are so good at this. At first glance, I wanted to say that you were too low on both Esmerlyn and Murf but after reading the reviews and looking under the hood a little more, I think you’ve got both of them right. Nice work!
My goodness, another Jared Jones, this time at first base!
2 60’s and 1 50, you don’t see that very often! (And of course, we don’t see 70’s very often either)
Thanks, great stuff! Not just because we feel flattered. They have long favored rawness on both sides and it’s easy to think that’s exploitable when they’re struggling, but who knows how much of that is baked in in what ways.
I was expecting Stafura to be more of a Hayes type than a Triolo type but that’s all cool. Low inside fastball hitters are rare and volatile but there’s some inherent upside too.
I don’t know that you can ever give a pitching prospect under 21 an FV60 grade, especially ones who throw hard like Hernandez. There is so much attrition that the bust rate for all of them is enormous.
Ever notice that the very top pitching prospects from 5 years ago are mostly like Grayson Rodriguez or Forrest Whitley? That’s because they were guys drafted out of high school, looked awesome against older competition, but were so far away from the majors that something was likely to go wrong. And it did for them! He’s cleared the first hurdle by performing as advertised and beating up on older players, and I can buy him up to a 55 on that. But career-altering injuries and / or the yips happen to a ton of guys with Hernandez’s profile. If he makes it through the gauntlet unscathed he’s going to be awesome (think Hunter Greene), but the chances of him doing so are well under 50%. Maybe about a third.
This is a good point, and even though he looks the part of an awesome arm, it’s why I was so apprehensive of them drafting him in the first place. If he does become a front line starter type in MLB, it’s very unlikely that he does it within his early 20s. It will probably take him five years to get there…which is what it took Greene. Although he lost a year to the pandemic.
I think the Pirates’ decision to take him looks very, very good right now. I don’t think there’s a single player aside from Eyanson who was picked after him who is as good a prospect as he is now.
I think you could theoretically make an argument for him over anyone except Kade Anderson in that draft class, and most of the players picked in front of him are at the same caliber of prospect as he is right now. If he doesn’t completely destroy his arm or shoulder and doesn’t develop the yips he’ll have a Hunter Greene / Dylan Cease type outcome.
And I also think the risk is enormous. The chances he doesn’t develop the yips or injure himself so badly he’s not the same pitcher anymore is so high. So far it is looking like it is worth it.
Something can go wrong for every prospect. You should evaluate cases individually and not specifically work against “archetypes” a similar issue happens in NBA.
Something can go wrong for every prospect, but those somethings go wrong a lot more often for pitchers under 21 than everyone else. Young pitchers have to have lower grades simply because the bad stuff unrelated to their talent happens so much more often.
The numbers here do not look good. There’s about a 1/3rd chance he’s somewhere in the Hunter Greene / Dylan Cease / Max Fried range, a 1/3rd chance he’s Alex Reyes, a 1/6th chance he’s Michael Kopech, and a 1/6th chance he’s Jordan Hicks.
That isn’t his fault, it’s just the likelihood of what will happen. And if you start weighting it by the attrition issue there’s no way you can project him as a 60 unless you’re going to ignore all of the challenges he will likely face.
He’s got about a 1/3rd chance of actually being a 60 or better, let’s say that’s a 5-win pitcher because he could theoretically be a 65 or 70. He’s got a 1/6th chance of being a mostly injured 8th inning guy (about a 0.3 WAR guy), and a 1/6th chance of being a sometimes-injured 8th inning bullpen guy (a 0.8 WAR guy). And he’s got a 1/3rd chance of being a 0 WAR guy.
That comes out to about a 50. Maybe you bump him up a half grade just because of the upside, but I can see no real justification for putting any pitcher under 21 higher than a 55. He is basically the highest-upside pitching prospect imaginable and there is probably a two-thirds chance he’s going to be seen as a bust.
That’s true too. Throwing insanely hard is bad for your health, whether you’re a prep or college arm. And one can say that even though TJ surgery isn’t routine, it’s by no means a death knell.
“You should evaluate cases individually and not specifically work against “archetypes””
This is pervasive among prospect pundits, not just fans, and it’s becoming annoying. It’s an addiction to heuristics that’s fine for the large blob of average to good players with certain attributes but is to be avoided when evaluating outlier talents.
Every time I hear or read “players of this type,” I’m like, there are hardly any players of this type!
I think this is what the argument boils down to: Some people think Hernández is an outlier talent and that the risks don’t apply or are insignificant in the face of his talent. And I think outlier talent doesn’t protect you from blowing your arm out, and that the risk that it permanently alters his ability is much higher than people are estimating.
Of course being an outlier talent doesn’t protect you from blowing your arm out, but the risk of that occurring isn’t any greater for a high school prospect than one drafted out of college. Thus, it isn’t relevant to your argument that no pitcher under 21 should ever be given an FV60.
That is almost correct.
The question is whether a pitcher is going to blow out their arm and never be the same again (or having the yips they can’t recover from). We’ll call this having an Irreversible Condition (IC).
The key is that the cumulative probability of having an IC by age 24 goes down considerably if you haven’t already had an IC by a certain age because you’ve already made it past it.
Let’s say that there’s a 3% chance of having an IC every month for six months every year. You can also have an IC in the offseason too, but let’s just do this to simplify.
We’re going to start with a pool of 1000 pitchers who are all turning 19 at the exact start of the beginning of our six month period. You can vary the ages if you want, but it just makes it more complicated.
In your age 19 year, this is what happens to your pool of 1000 pitchers.
Month 1: 30 ICs; the pool at the end of the month is 970
Month 2: 29 ICs; the pool is now 941
Month 3: 28 ICs; the pool is now 913
Month 4: 27 ICs; the pool is now 886
Month 5: 26 ICs; the pool is now 859
Month 6: 25 ICs; the pool is now 833.
This means that the cumulative probability of having an IC between the ages of 18 and 20 is 16.7%.
Now let’s look at age 20:
Month 1: 25 ICs; the pool at the end of the month is 808
Month 2: 24 ICs; the pool is now 784
Month 3: 24 ICs; the pool is now 760
Month 4: 23 ICs; the pool is now 737
Month 5: 22 ICs; the pool is now 715
Month 6: 21 ICs; the pool is now 694.
That means the cumulative probability of having an IC between the ages of 18 and 21 is 30.6%.
I can keep going with this, but you get the picture. If you take it all the way down to the end of your age 24 year–so six years–you will have lost 665 of your pitchers. The cumulative risk of having an IC by the end of age 24 is 66.5%.
But that doesn’t mean that the risk of a pitcher at exactly age 19 and exactly age 21 is the same! Because the guy who made it to age 21 has already avoided ICs for two whole years. They only have four more years left to dodge an IC.
What this means is that a guy who just turned 19 has approximately a 66.5% chance of having an IC by midnight of their 25th birthday. And a guy who just turned 21 has only a 35% chance of having an IC by midnight of their 25th birthday. Not because the injury risk is less. But because they’ve already “banked” two healthy years where they didn’t get IC’d. The chances a 21 year old is healthy by the time they turn 25 is quite a bit higher!
That’s the difference. It’s not that there’s something magical about injury risk when you’re a teenager. It’s that you have less far to go before an IC derails you.
Having Tommy John is not an Irreversible Condition. Your entire premise is a hypothetical that has no basis in reality.
The risk in drafting a high school pitcher isn’t their accumulated chance of sustaining an injury, it’s that they’re still developing both physically and professionally. What makes Seth Hernandez so special is that he’s already advanced physically and professionally. We don’t need to project any more development from him than we do from Tyler Bremner.
There’s definitely some additional risk but what Hernandez is very rare. I just looked at all the top 6 HS pitching draft picks from the last 20 years and really only one other tore up the minor leagues out of the gate the way Hernandez has and that was Dylan Bundy. There were two others that had a solid 20 innings in Rookie ball but I don’t think that’s comparable. And not for nothin’ but MLB.com has him as the #3 prospect. Not on the Pirates but all of baseball.
Had had a similar thought (as a fan)–“Hernandez’s performance in low-A is Bundyesque! Wait that’s not comforting.”
Yeah MLB.com loves upside. It’s certainly one way to do it.
There are a lot of other guys who tore up the minors as a teenager. I set the minors leaderboard for guys who had a minimum of 40 innings pitched and 8 games started, 30% K, and walks under 5 as teenagers. That gave me a list of 150 guys, but I went through and pulled out the guys with the best scouting report / performance combos. Forrest Whitley, Eury Perez, Tyler Glasnow, Kyle Harrison, Grayson Rodriguez, Tink Hence, Caden Dana, Luis Patino, Brusdar Graterol, and Hunter Greene all had incredible minors seasons at a young age within the last 10-15 years and where Top 100 prospects during that time.
The guys most similar to Hernandez in terms of scouting accolades are probably Greene, Rodriguez, and Whitley, which I think gives some sense of both the upside and the risks. I think we have forgotten how dominant Rodriguez and Whitley looked immediately. Whitley reached AA in his age 19 season and was torching hitters there. But then he got hurt, and he stopped being able to throw strikes, and I think he is playing overseas now? His problem wasn’t lack of talent.
It is a big mistake to think this way. It’s perfectly fine to say that high school pitchers have more volatility or that small build players generally have less power, but you should never have a blanket rule that puts everyone in a singular bucket. Seth Hernandez is special in the same way that Kevin McGonigle is special. They have elite talent which should preclude lumping them in with the rest of their demographic.
The possibility of injuries shouldn’t affect anyone’s FV. Only injuries that have actually occurred should do that. If Konnor Griffin tears his Achilles tomorrow, and I hope that he never has any serious injury of any kind, then he would no longer be a 70 because that type of injury would permanently reduce his extraordinary athleticism.
Seth Hernandez is very obviously a 60 and I would be tempted to make him a 65. His changeup is absolutely ridiculous and would be a plus plus pitch for a guy who threw 93 mph. Having that paired with a four seam that touches triple digits is absurd. His build and motion have no red flags, so the stuff justifies the grade regardless of any trepidation over other arms drafted out of high school. He isn’t them.
Agree with this take. if your scouting evals say he’s this good, you shouldn’t care if he’s 18 or 22, you just take the best player and hope you get the most out of him you can. If he’s that good, he speeds up the timeline and arrives earlier. If he’s not or he’s hurt, you still have him under control younger to get him back to his initial eval if you can.
Looks like you may be able to toss Jackson Jobe into the same bowl.
Jobe was always a weird case because his metrics and scouting reports were always much higher on him than his actual performance suggested.
But in general, people don’t want to think about this but the chances of any specific teenaged pitching prospect making it to MLB in one piece is super low. And for reasons that don’t have much to do with arm talent. The attrition is enormous.
No update on Griffin’s eval even after a sizable MLB sample? Just a copy and paste of the top 100 blurb.
There’s an update, it isn’t a copy/paste.
You know what? You’re right. Should’ve known better than to skim the blurb during my lunch break and rush to conclusions. I’ll take my L.
I watched a couple at bats of Johan De Los Santos. holy crap is his bat fast.
also glad you acknowledged that they’ll have 4 picks in top 51 of draft… and my bet is they chase upside
I hope they go with a mix, honestly. The 51 isn’t protected, and with a bunch of pretty intriguing college arms in that second round range, I hope they go there with that pick. But since they have the largest draft Poole, I can certainly see them chasing some upside as well.
If they go the upside route they’d probably go for Eric Booth, but I suspect that if Jackson Flora or Vahn Lackey falls to them that’s who they take.
If not I wouldn’t be surprised to see them cut a big underslot deal with a college guy (Cameron Flukey? Tyler Bell?) and then start scooping up all those high school guys who fall through the cracks. They could try and buy Trevor Condon down to pick #34, and / or scoop up one of the prep left-handers (Rojas, Bumila, or Schmidt) if they slip down to #44. Or they could just sign a bunch of high school guys with a second round grade in the 3rd-5th rounds.
My big hope is Lackey or Flora is there. At the moment it looks like there’s a clear top four of Roch/Emerson/Lackeu/Flora. I do wonder if they could float either of the latter two down to their spot. And I wouldn’t galaxy brain it if either is there. They’d still have plenty to go over slot with their picks after 5.
As far as underslot deals, I’m not too keen on it. Maybe it’s Henry Davis flashbacks, but while that often sounds like a good idea in theory, I’m curious as to how well that strategy works out.
It’s entirely possible Flora or Lackey will fall to them without having to do much. The Rays could certainly go way underslot with someone like Tyler Bell, and lots of people seem to think the Giants are in on Lombard over Lackey and Flora.
As for the underslot thing, it would look way better if Chandler was pitching better. But if you could redo the entire 2021 draft today there is a decent chance Chandler would go in the Top 10. Basically the entire top 10 of that draft looks like it has busted except Leiter. The only players in the entire first round who looked actually good were Merrill (kind of having a rough year) and Colson Montgomery.
If you were to redraft it you would go James Wood, Ben Rice, Bryan Woo, Jackson Merrill, Colson Montgomery, Emmett Sheehan, and Mason Miller in the top 7 in something close to that order. And then (in some order) Leiter, Chandler, Gavin Williams, Daylen Lile, Joe Mack, Andrew Abbott, and Spencer Schwellenbach would round out the rest of the top 15. None of the players talked about as a potential first pick would be considered. If Chandler busts then it was all for naught, but the guys picking after them in the Top 10 all had much worse drafts than they did.
But they still could have gone underslot with someone like Mayer (who signed for $150k more than Davis), and still signed two of Solometo, White, and Chandler. Maybe they still end up in roughly the same spot, as Mayer hasn’t torn it up either, but he’s a full three years younger than Davis.
The 21 and 22 drafts look horrendous throughout the top 10: injuries, bad development, poor selections. Redrafts don’t say much because it’s all hindsight and I think it’s best to really only judge teams on what they know at the time. But both of those drafts stand in stark contrast to 23 (which was thought to be legendary) and 24 (which wasn’t and looks damn good).
Such great work.
I wonder if in future years, Eric in his annual “how’s my driving” piece, discusses his early stuffing of super young international prospects. I don’t follow other outlets as closely, but it feels like Eric covers this area more intensely, and maybe a little ahead of the game in assessing players this young. For every Jesus Made, there are many more Roderick Arias and Miguel Bleis. Maybe that’s the price you pay for swimming and waters that are so volatile. But I do wonder if Eric has noticed any traits or tendencies in his scouting of these players to better assess their future.
A lot of this is that Eric scouts / sources reports from the backfields and winter leagues more than other public-facing scouts, so he sees some breakouts before they happen. But as you say, sometimes they are Miguel Bleis.
I’m torn on Johan De Los Santos. He has the earmarks of a contact guy who can probably max out his game power and grab extra bases with his speed, but it’s not just a short frame, but a narrow one. Sometimes that turns into Brice Turang but I’d like to see more before going 45 on a guy who’s not a plus glove anywhere.
It’s fun have three variations on the same “flawed slugger” profile ranked consecutively, as I wondered exactly where Valdez, Garcia and Gray would fall. I’m an Esmerlyn Valdez apologist because I think he’ll make good enough swing decisions to access his power. He looked erratic in RF in his call-up but has a nice arm.
I might favor Gray over him, as the z-contact is phenomenal for a guy with his power. I’ll monitor the chase allegations but he can survive some aggression with his contact quality. It’s a killer that he’s also a poor defender. I think he might hit enough to weather average or slightly below 3B defense, but not flat out poor glove work.
Antwone Kelly is my stay stubborn guy. This reinforces the recent BA take on his FB, and you can see it visually, but he can pitch and has the mix to start. It feels like the FB lowers his relief profile enough that even back-end starter may bring more value, especially if he’s SIRPing instead of MIRPing. There’s a Jack Perkins tweeter vibe where he just needs time to find himself.