Player’s View: Does Lineup Protection Exist?
Lineup protection may or may not exist. Studies suggest it doesn’t, at least not statistically, but many within the game insist it does. In their view, the pitches a batter sees are influenced by the batter on deck. Almost all agree that situations play a role, but beyond that, just how much effect is there? The question was posed to six pitchers, four hitters, and two managers (both of whom are former catchers). Here are their responses:
Madison Bumgarner, Giants pitcher: “I should look over at the on-deck circle a lot of time, but my pride gets the better of me. I can’t remember a time that I looked over there and was actually smart about the situation. It should be that way. It’s a hard thing to do. You don’t want to give in, I don’t want to give in.”
Kevin Cash, Rays manager: “A lot of those questions have been asked about Longo (Evan Longoria). You have the guy who protects, you have the guy who gets the benefit of having protection, and then you have the really good hitter who does both. We factor in protection, but it’s not just having that one guy in front of him, or behind him. That’s not the driving force when making a lineup.”
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays infielder: “I think it’s like this: If you’ve been around a little bit, people are going to pitch to you the way they’re going to pitch to you. But when you have guys behind you, they’re going to be more apt to make mistakes in the strike zone. They’re going to be more aggressive throwing strikes, but not more aggressive throwing fastballs. They’re going to throw their pitches, but they’re going to throw them more for strikes.”
Joe Girardi, Yankees manager: “I worry more about stacking lefties or stacking righties. I want righties between lefties, so it’s harder for them to match up against us later in the game. That’s my biggest concern. I think about that type of protection more than anything. I don’t think hitters think a whole lot about (who’s behind them) and I don’t necessarily either, because lineups today are so deep.”
Tim Hudson, Giants pitcher: “You’re foolish if you don’t look at the next hitter. Especially for us older guys; we know who in the lineup has had success against us and who hasn’t. If you have a guy on deck that you know doesn’t see you well, and there’s a guy in scoring position, and you’re facing a guy that sees you well, you’ve got to be smart. Pitch him tough, and take your chances with the guy on deck.”
Kevin Jepsen, Rays pitcher: “As a reliever, if I’m coming into the game and facing three-four-five, on most teams they’re all studs. If I’m behind a batter 2-0 or 3-1, I’m not too upset if I walk him. If he chases, great. If not, I get a fresh count against the guy on deck. Every hitter is dangerous when he’s ahead. The only time I’m really looking to see who’s on deck is when there’s a base open.”
Evan Longoria, Rays infielder: “I think that’s a pretty silly question. It’s a question that answers itself. If you have somebody like Miguel Cabrera behind you, you’re going to get pitches to hit, as opposed to if it’s a rookie without much big-league time. There’s also handedness. If you’ve got a left-handed guy behind you, and there’s a lefthander on the mound, a right-handed hitter isn’t going to get as many pitches to hit in certain situations. They’d rather face the left-handed hitter.”
Rick Porcello, Red Sox pitcher: “It puts you more in the strike zone than you want to be. You don’t want to walk a guy and have to face a guy behind him who is capable of doing just as much damage. And hitters hit strikes, whether it’s a strike breaking ball or a fastball that catches the middle third of the plate. I think anybody who watches the game knows protection exists. If we don’t have Hanley (Ramirez) coming up behind Papi (David Ortiz), that works in their favor.”
CC Sabathia, Yankees pitcher: “I’m always conscious of it, but I try not to change the way I pitch too much. I like to stick to the game plan. I try to get everybody out, but if a certain situation calls for it, I’ll pitch around the zone a little. You have to be careful in certain situations. You don’t want to let a Miguel Cabrera hurt you, but then you have a Victor Martinez hitting behind him, and that makes it tough.”
Pablo Sandoval, Red Sox infielder: “It doesn’t matter for me. I could be hitting ninth or first. I don’t care. I think it matters for some hitters, but not for me. I’m just going to go up and swing the bat.”
Mark Teixeira, Yankees infielder: “There are a lot of variables, but common sense tells you that if a stud is hitting behind you, you’re going to see better pitches. In today’s game, you have so many match-ups. The guy behind you might not have the most robust numbers, but if he matches up really well against the pitcher, you’re probably going to see better pitches, and vice versa. But I’ve hit third, in front of Vlad Guerrero, and fourth, behind Chipper Jones. I had good seasons with both, so I don’t think it makes that big of a difference.”
Adam Warren, Yankees pitcher: “Early in the game, it’s more about getting the hitter out who’s right in front of me. I’m not worried about who’s coming up next. The deeper you get into the game – maybe it’s tied – you have to start thinking about who you’d rather face. You might pitch around a guy, or you might go right after him. You have to be smart.”
Thanks to colleague Eno Sarris for suggesting the topic, and for procuring the quotes from Bumgarner and Hudson.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
The Sandoval response was such a Sandoval response
Lineup protection does exist, but not in the way players think it does. If I’ve got a stud like Miguel Cabrera, I want to have a decent hitter behind him. For one, if you don’t, Cabrera is going to lead the league in walks and will see almost nothing to hit in high leverage spots. But also, granting that he’s going to be walked a lot anyway, you want that hitter behind him to be good enough to take advantage of the men on base.
And this is different from the way players think because?
Players think that batting Juan Pierre in front of Miguel Cabrera gives Juan Pierre better pitches to hit and improves his production. I don’t think that’s the case at all. Juan Pierre gets pitched to the same no matter who is batting behind him. But if you hit Juan Pierre behind Miguel Cabrera, then I absolutely think that affects how often Cabrera gets pitched to, particularly in high leverage situations. Hit Juan Pierre behind Cabrera, and I think Cabrera leads the league in walks, both intentional and unintentional, by a wide margin. I think that lineup protection only exists in that realm. It’s only ever noticed when you have a particularly strong hitter followed by a particularly weak hitter. So, in other words, it rarely ever is an issue.
Patrick is exactly right. A batter with protection doesn’t necessarily get “better pitches to hit” (which is what hitters think); while the protected batter is much more likely to walk and slightly more likely to strike out, he isn’t (statistically) more likely to get a hit or make better contact. And getting walked is kind of the opposite of getting “good pitches to hit.” As The Book put it almost a decade ago:
Intuitively, this seems true, but the numbers don’t back it up. My guess is that most pitchers, most of the time, must
think like Mad Bum.
Yeah, I think this is right.
In general, I don’t think pitchers act uniformly, rookie vs veteran, starter vs reliever, power guy vs junk guy, their each going to have a different approach in terms of preparation and game plan for hitters. For that reason, the stats probably aren’t going to tell you a whole lot as to whether protection matters; just too much noise in the data.
But still, I think Longo’s and Porcello’s points ring true — #1) Big league hitters hit strikes. Avg Z-contact % is 85% vs O-contact % is 60%, and #2) From Longo, protected batters get more pitches in the zone. That’s not say that the protected hitter is going to do something with that pitch, but its more like to be in the zone.
I’d like to hear Marcell Ozuna’s opinion on this.
Do #8 NL hitters see different pitches with the pitcher on deck?
if pitchers could put the ball where they wanted all the time I’d believe in protection a lot more than I do.
My understanding is that studies has confirmed it *does* exist, but that its existence is limited to the “input” side of at-bars. That is, pitchers do pitch differently to “protected” hitters, but that these differences do not have a significant impact on “output” (results).
In that case, we should expect most players to believe it exists. They are thinking primarily about the input side of things and probably don’t pay close attention to the large-sample consequences.
To Longoria,
What if the rookie is named Kris Bryant?
Or Mookie Betts?
Don’t you mean Devon Travis?
Protection does exist but not in the way you would think. Protection is actually bad. Getting more strikes thrown to hitters is bad. More pitches to hit is bad because chance of walk decreases, and chance of K increases. There is no hitter that is better than a walk, not even Barry Bonds.
…huh? If all pitches were strikes, there would be a lot more hard contact around the league. Batters would know the next pitch would be something they “have” to swing at, taking the skill (or guess work, for some) out of pitch recognition. There would probably be less striking out.
What? There would be more hard contact due to less guesswork and less to do with pitch recognition of every pitch were a strike. I mean, if all pitchers were Clayton Kershaw, sure, it would be harder, but they’re not. Hitters would have a field day if only strikes were thrown.
I agree with Bob. I don’t think it makes sense to say the opposite of lineup protection is “what if pitchers only threw strikes”. Pitchers throw pitches out of the zone in nearly every at-bat, regardless of who is hitting or who is on-deck.
But a guaranteed (or nearly guaranteed) walk is statistically better than Miguel Cabrera’s average at-bat (which even in 2013 resulted in an out 45% of the time).
Girardi doesn’t eat his own cooking, sending up nine lefties/switches against Masterson last Friday to start…
I’d have to disagree, Curacao. The switch hitters can provide that same sort of protection, without requiring Girardi to burn a bench player.
I think people are looking at this the wrong way. Too much info exists today and pitchers work to their strengths and the hitters weakness. Most guys are gonna be pitched how they’re going to be pitched regardless of who’s behind them in the lineup.
The real protection is batting with guys on base. If you want a hitter to see more strikes, put high OBP guys in front of him.
isn’t it a bit odd that we are sitting at our computers commenting on what baseball players do when we have an article quoting baseball players on what they do? I am not some crazy anti-stat person, but I think that the players have made it clear that of course the situation in the game impacts how a batter is approached by the pitcher, and that situation includes who is on deck. As Warren said, it matters more in high leverage situations. As MadBum said, it matters less if you are an ace. As CC and Hudson said, if you are trying to get by on guile after your stuff has worn down, you better pay attention to who is on deck. As several said, if the guy on deck is Miguel Cabrera, you’d better pay attention.
The numbers suggest it doesn’t happen- very very clearly. Numbers don’t lie like preconceived notions to.
The numbers do suggest it happens, though. Have you even read this comment section?
I’d like to see a modern, Pitch F/X aided study on lineup protection, personally.
For something else, I grabbed the ~300 player-seasons where the player had exactly two stints of 100+ PA for two different teams. I sorted them by the difference in team wRC+ — if protection exists then a player going from a weak line-up to a strong line-up should see a pretty decent bump.
The top 20 averaged +1 wRC+ with their teams’ offense improving by 26 points of wRC+.
I adjusted the data to set a 200 PA minimum for the teams and it went to +19 vs +4