Pondering a Possible Pete Alonso Trade

The idea of the Mets trading Pete Alonso would have seemed positively preposterous six months ago. Coming off a 101-win season, the Mets committed to a half-billion dollars in new contracts over the winter, entering the season with the most expensive team in history. But rather than battle the Braves for NL East supremacy, they’ve instead been fighting to stay ahead of the Nationals for fourth place, a mêlée they’re currently losing. The Mets have already traded off some of their veterans, including both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, so the idea of parting with Alonso doesn’t seem quite as farfetched as it once did.

There have been some sports radio rumblings about Alonso-related clubhouse issues, but I tend to not take those things too seriously. And even if I did, it’s not a surprising development in the context of a wreck of a season; unless you’re the late 1970s Yankees, winning tends to make people get along better. What I do take seriously are the reports from Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic. No deal was close, but the Mets reportedly talked to at least the Brewers and Cubs around the trade deadline, getting to the point where the players to be sent to New York were discussed.

The facts on the ground, divorced from any specific rumors, also make such a trade plausible this winter. Players a year from free agency are frequently discussed in trades, and while there’s no reason to think the Mets are going to tear the team down to a small, long-term core, a 75-win season — and that’s only if the Mets play decent baseball in September — makes some kind of short-term retool quite possible. In that case, trading the unsigned Alonso for players who can contribute past 2024 is an idea with considerable merit.

When contemplating a trade, the first question is: What kind of player is Alonso likely to be in 2024? The first baseman is having a weird season, with a Mendoza-line BABIP (.205), but he’s still hitting for power. I’m not actually worried about the BABIP — a number that low is almost never a real long-term characteristic for a position player with even the teensiest amount of competence at the plate. After all, pitchers across the majors since 2018 combined for a .239 BABIP with the bases empty. What does cause me a bit of concern is that Alonso has been a lot more passive at the plate and his contact rate has still gone down, even with stingier pitch selection. But hey, there’s a projection system on my computer, so I might as well ask it:

If Alonso were a free agent this offseason, ZiPS would suggest a six-year, $130 million offer. While that pales in comparison to some of the biggest contracts of last winter, those were mainly given to shortstops and to last year’s AL MVP, Aaron Judge. It’s a bit less than what either Matt Olson or Freddie Freeman received, but both had better projections when they signed than Alonso does now. Alonso isn’t a free agent, of course, and ZiPS would knock another $8 million-$10 million off that deal because of the season of arbitration remaining. I honestly don’t expect Alonso to seriously entertain a six-year, $120 million offer. This question isn’t just theoretical; per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the Mets have at least discussed a contract extension with Alonso recently:

“The Mets made an offer that, while it certainly wasn’t insulting, wasn’t one good enough to convince Alonso to forego free agency,” said a source with knowledge of the talks. “But the offseason is a long one. There’s no urgency to get something done right now.”

If you assume that Alonso’s next team will get $11 million plus some hard-to-quantify amount of value from having the first shot at extending Alonso or netting a possible qualifying offer compensation pick, that would put the return for Alonso somewhere in the range of a 50 FV prospect. Just to provide some context of what a 50 FV means, the current 50s on the Cubs and Brewers, two teams that have reportedly talked with the Mets, are James Triantos, Sal Frelick, Kevin Alcántara, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks. That’s not to say that all or any of these players would be offered in an Alonso trade, only that this is the level of prospect the Mets could expect under these assumptions.

But those assumptions might not be 100% correct. Alonso’s WAR projection isn’t an overwhelming one, but right now it’s also the third-best in ZiPS for the 2024 season among first basemen. The top two are the aforementioned Freeman and Olson, and they’re both in the category of unobtainium for teams wanting to upgrade at first base:

If your team absolutely needs a first baseman, you probably can’t get one better than Alonso this winter. While that’s certainly not enough to spark a serious discussion for prospects like Jackson Chourio at the negotiating table — if Chourio had actually been offered, Alonso would currently be wearing a cap with the best logo in baseball history on it — it’s likely enough to net another lower-level prospect or two if the Mets find just the right buyer.

Trading Pete Alonso previously seemed unthinkable, but coming off an infinite tire fire of a year, the one thing the Mets actually can’t afford is a verboten idea. Sure, this could all be a moot point in a month if the Mets and Alonso agree to a mutually beneficial contract extension, but failing that, the team should take the idea of trading their first baseman very seriously this offseason.