Pondering a Possible Pete Alonso Trade
The idea of the Mets trading Pete Alonso would have seemed positively preposterous six months ago. Coming off a 101-win season, the Mets committed to a half-billion dollars in new contracts over the winter, entering the season with the most expensive team in history. But rather than battle the Braves for NL East supremacy, they’ve instead been fighting to stay ahead of the Nationals for fourth place, a mêlée they’re currently losing. The Mets have already traded off some of their veterans, including both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, so the idea of parting with Alonso doesn’t seem quite as farfetched as it once did.
There have been some sports radio rumblings about Alonso-related clubhouse issues, but I tend to not take those things too seriously. And even if I did, it’s not a surprising development in the context of a wreck of a season; unless you’re the late 1970s Yankees, winning tends to make people get along better. What I do take seriously are the reports from Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic. No deal was close, but the Mets reportedly talked to at least the Brewers and Cubs around the trade deadline, getting to the point where the players to be sent to New York were discussed.
The facts on the ground, divorced from any specific rumors, also make such a trade plausible this winter. Players a year from free agency are frequently discussed in trades, and while there’s no reason to think the Mets are going to tear the team down to a small, long-term core, a 75-win season — and that’s only if the Mets play decent baseball in September — makes some kind of short-term retool quite possible. In that case, trading the unsigned Alonso for players who can contribute past 2024 is an idea with considerable merit.
When contemplating a trade, the first question is: What kind of player is Alonso likely to be in 2024? The first baseman is having a weird season, with a Mendoza-line BABIP (.205), but he’s still hitting for power. I’m not actually worried about the BABIP — a number that low is almost never a real long-term characteristic for a position player with even the teensiest amount of competence at the plate. After all, pitchers across the majors since 2018 combined for a .239 BABIP with the bases empty. What does cause me a bit of concern is that Alonso has been a lot more passive at the plate and his contact rate has still gone down, even with stingier pitch selection. But hey, there’s a projection system on my computer, so I might as well ask it:
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .250 | .342 | .503 | 555 | 84 | 139 | 24 | 1 | 38 | 113 | 64 | 128 | 4 | 133 | -1 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | .246 | .338 | .486 | 541 | 79 | 133 | 23 | 1 | 35 | 106 | 63 | 124 | 4 | 127 | -1 | 3.2 |
| 2026 | .242 | .335 | .471 | 524 | 75 | 127 | 22 | 1 | 32 | 99 | 61 | 120 | 3 | 123 | -1 | 2.7 |
| 2027 | .241 | .332 | .459 | 503 | 70 | 121 | 21 | 1 | 29 | 90 | 58 | 116 | 3 | 119 | -2 | 2.4 |
| 2028 | .235 | .327 | .438 | 473 | 63 | 111 | 19 | 1 | 25 | 79 | 54 | 111 | 2 | 112 | -2 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | .229 | .321 | .412 | 437 | 54 | 100 | 18 | 1 | 20 | 68 | 49 | 105 | 2 | 104 | -2 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | .224 | .316 | .401 | 392 | 47 | 88 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 59 | 44 | 95 | 2 | 99 | -2 | 0.7 |
If Alonso were a free agent this offseason, ZiPS would suggest a six-year, $130 million offer. While that pales in comparison to some of the biggest contracts of last winter, those were mainly given to shortstops and to last year’s AL MVP, Aaron Judge. It’s a bit less than what either Matt Olson or Freddie Freeman received, but both had better projections when they signed than Alonso does now. Alonso isn’t a free agent, of course, and ZiPS would knock another $8 million-$10 million off that deal because of the season of arbitration remaining. I honestly don’t expect Alonso to seriously entertain a six-year, $120 million offer. This question isn’t just theoretical; per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the Mets have at least discussed a contract extension with Alonso recently:
“The Mets made an offer that, while it certainly wasn’t insulting, wasn’t one good enough to convince Alonso to forego free agency,” said a source with knowledge of the talks. “But the offseason is a long one. There’s no urgency to get something done right now.”
If you assume that Alonso’s next team will get $11 million plus some hard-to-quantify amount of value from having the first shot at extending Alonso or netting a possible qualifying offer compensation pick, that would put the return for Alonso somewhere in the range of a 50 FV prospect. Just to provide some context of what a 50 FV means, the current 50s on the Cubs and Brewers, two teams that have reportedly talked with the Mets, are James Triantos, Sal Frelick, Kevin Alcántara, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks. That’s not to say that all or any of these players would be offered in an Alonso trade, only that this is the level of prospect the Mets could expect under these assumptions.
But those assumptions might not be 100% correct. Alonso’s WAR projection isn’t an overwhelming one, but right now it’s also the third-best in ZiPS for the 2024 season among first basemen. The top two are the aforementioned Freeman and Olson, and they’re both in the category of unobtainium for teams wanting to upgrade at first base:
| Player | WAR |
|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 4.6 |
| Matt Olson | 4.4 |
| Pete Alonso | 3.7 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 3.5 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3.0 |
| Christian Walker | 2.8 |
| Yandy Díaz | 2.7 |
| José Abreu | 2.4 |
| Ty France | 2.3 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2.2 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 2.2 |
| Josh Naylor | 1.9 |
| Justin Turner | 1.9 |
| Wilmer Flores | 1.8 |
| Triston Casas | 1.8 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1.8 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 1.8 |
| Spencer Steer | 1.8 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1.6 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1.6 |
| Luke Raley | 1.5 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1.5 |
| Josh Bell | 1.5 |
| Brandon Belt | 1.4 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.4 |
If your team absolutely needs a first baseman, you probably can’t get one better than Alonso this winter. While that’s certainly not enough to spark a serious discussion for prospects like Jackson Chourio at the negotiating table — if Chourio had actually been offered, Alonso would currently be wearing a cap with the best logo in baseball history on it — it’s likely enough to net another lower-level prospect or two if the Mets find just the right buyer.
Trading Pete Alonso previously seemed unthinkable, but coming off an infinite tire fire of a year, the one thing the Mets actually can’t afford is a verboten idea. Sure, this could all be a moot point in a month if the Mets and Alonso agree to a mutually beneficial contract extension, but failing that, the team should take the idea of trading their first baseman very seriously this offseason.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I fundamentally agree with this but I expect the comments to be kind of deranged to judge by the response every time a NY-based writer has floated this idea on Twitter. Man, people think Pete Alonso is a lot better than he actually is.
It’s hard to give up top prospects for a year of any player. Unless the player is Mookie Betts- or Francisco Lindor-caliber, which Alonso certainly is not.
But he is still the player with the 21st-best wRC+ among qualified hitters this year. The only player with a higher one who is a free agent this winter is Cody Bellinger (although I expect some team will talk themselves into signing Jorge Soler instead of trading for Alonso). So I do think they can expect an FV50 prospect, approximately.
I wanted to edit it but FG has been annoying about editing lately, but truly Alonso reminds me a lot of Ryan Howard – he has exactly one skill, and it’s hitting for power – and I would not expect him to age gracefully.
Ryan Howard was significantly worse defensively, and on the basepaths compared to Alonso at the same ages. Howard was a DH in the wrong league, and it ate into a decent amount of his overall value.
Despite baseball-reference saying there’s only a 5 lb. difference between the two, I’d judge Howard’s listed weight of 250 to be about as accurate as Trump’s 215 lbs.
I’m not saying Alonso will age gracefully, necessarily, but he’s starting at a higher athletic baseline compared to Howard, that’s for certain.
And Howard was still a very good hitter from ages 29-31. I would at least expect Alonso to remain a lineup anchor during those same prime years.
He will be a lineup anchor (in the positive sense) before he inevitably becomes a lineup anchor (in the other sense)
The problem is he hits FA at 30.
Ryan Howard was also a much better hitter than Pete Alonso!
Except he wasn’t. Howard had only 2 years with a higher wrc+ than Pete’s career line
Of Alonso’s top comps through age 27 on b-ref, only Delgado had a qualifying season after age 34. Almost all players with Alonso’s profile fall off a cliff in their early 30s.
Are we ignoring Matt Olson at #2 and Shohei Ohtani at #3 because they don’t fit your narrative? Delgado at #6 who was still a great hitter at 37…
Also a couple guys in Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder who ate themselves out of the league, which I don’t think Alonso will do.
While Alonso very well might age poorly, cherry picking data, and ignoring the ones who don’t fit does not help the argument.
Have either Olson or Ohtani produced in their 30s? They are both 29, every single hitter on that list was producing at a high level at age 29. I think we can reasonably exclude Olson, Ohtani, and Josh Bell from the sample since we don’t know how they will age yet.
There are a handful of guys with the profile who have aged well (Delgado, David Ortiz, Willie McCovey, Lee May). But most don’t, even Frank Thomas saw a 43 point drop in his wRC+ in his 30s. The comps of Alonso’s comps (Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Nate Colbert, Carlos Pena, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn) tend to follow a similar pattern. Many of those players saw their career cut short by injuries, but those seem to be a fairly common occurrence among these larger players. Playing baseball at 240+ lbs puts a lot of strain on the human body.
I was looking at wRC+ yesterday, and Ozuna and Jp Crawford are inside the top 20 and Alonso is not. Those were not names I expected to see there before the season began.
And Isaac Paredes too (10th highest wRC+ of a qualified hitter) – putting up a nice 4 win season (below replacement with the Tigers, over 6fWAR in under 850PA with the Rays – Austin Meadows has, of course, been below replacement in his two seasons with the Rays).
So, in a couple of years, GMs, when the Rays want to trade Paredes away, find out who they want from your team – that is the player who is going to put up a 4 win season!
Better yet, don’t trade with the Rays. 😁
And I would guess that will be reversed next year, but I am definitely noticing that recency bias is not consistent across teams so it is hard to predict how teams will interpret it.
Seems like that’s the penalty for being merely an all-star caliber player in a market like New York 😂 – Everyone thinks you’re Mike Trout
The Yankees have one exceptional player, when healthy, and that’s Judge. They have one exceptional pitcher in Cole. Everything beyond that ranges from useful but not standout, to “maybe if everything breaks his way”, and OMG, that’s what you are putting out on the field? Excruciating to watch
And yet I have seen comments from Mets fans who think Lindor is a massive disappointment, e.g. his bat (a 119wRC+ this season) isn’t very good.
Overrate the pretty good guys and blame the future HoFers for the teams struggles – though I imagine lots of fanbases have similar idiosyncrasies.
I listen to the Mike Francesa podcast for laughs and he said Alonso should ask for the contract Lindor got lmao.
I like WAR but the gap between the value Alonso provides and Lindor provides is misrepresented in this case (namely the untrustworthiness of defensive WAR and the extremely unlucky BABIP season Alonso has had, which WAR does not account for).
The most important part of baseball is hitting, and Pete Alonso has a top 10 xwOBA in the entire league. We also know most of Lindor’s value comes from his defense, which any smart person will tell you is very poorly quantified by current statistics.
I’m not saying Alonso is worth a Lindor contract, because he’s not; but people just looking at WAR and making these types of proclamations is dumb. Lindor is having a very good year. WAR overrates the value of his defense tremendously – he’s a great defender, but the idea that he’s having an MVP type season is laughable. Every other player in that discussion is a great hitter – Lindor isn’t. And his defense isn’t otherworldly enough to account for that discrepancy.
I posted something far less eloquent but trying to make the same point on the Lindor article the other day.
Lindor is not worth Lindor’s contract.
I mean, we can definitely quibble over the degree to which WAR values defensive metrics. But, I don’t think there is anything fundamentally controversial in acknowledging that a player capably of fielding a far more demanding position at a high level will inherently be more valuable than a player who can only field a less demanding position at an average level.
Secondly, while fWAR is likely more predictive than many traditional counting stats, it is still fundamentally a results driven metric. So of course its not going to value a player with an impressive xwOBA if that doesn’t actually translate into on field production. Alonso’s low BABIP on the season may be a fluke, but it is an actual result and if you are measuring the Value a player provided you go by the actual results, not the expected ones.
Yeh, the problem isn’t WAR but baseball fans. We fundamentally don’t understand how much more valuable an adequate defensive SS (and Lindor is better than that) is than a good defensive 1B.
WAR does weight offense more the defense (and funnily enough Lindor has more offensive runs than defensive runs this year – for his career, he’s been worth 125 offensive runs and 150 defensive runs – he is not Ozzie Smith, he is a genuinely good hitter).
Top offensive runs this year: Ohtani, S, 59.7 (Betts, Acuña, Freeman all above 55)
Top defensive runs this year: Bailey, P, 22.0 – but he’s a catcher and is getting a lot of credit for good framing – most the top defensive runs are catchers as they can influence every pitch.
So top defensive runs, non-catcher this year: Doyle, B, 15.8.
I don’t think Lindor is going to get any top 3 NL MVP votes – because WAR is saying while his defense is great – and better than the guys who are going to get lots of MVP votes – it still leaves him as comfortably less valuable than Betts, Acuña, Freeman.
Exactly. I was comparing Lindor and Alonso’s stat lines from this year and I have to say, considering that to this point Alonso has only be about a 10 percent better hitter than Lindor, and the differences in their values on the basepaths, and the difference in the value of their positions and the level at which both field their respective positions, the 2.5 fWAR gap completely tracks to me.
Don’t they bother to look at Judge? He’s right there!
Or, more likely, for a team that’s been around for over 5 decades, there is value in the idea of finally having a homegrown offensive player spend his entire career with the Mets, especially since we had to watch David Wright fall apart.
This is entertainment after all. I’m a lifelong Mets fan who knows exactly what Alonso’s value is, and I get disgusted at the idea of trading him for a 50 FV prospect.
Really can’t second this enough. There are obvious and legitimate reasons beyond $/WAR that fans care about players and want to keep watching them play for their teams. Pete is a perfect case in point, and this is still the case whatever deranged nonsense is being said about him by angry WFAN callers or Twitter randos.
I am often questioned for thinking that baseball is about players and not just a string of statistics. There are players who have become part of the fabric of a franchise and Pete Alonso has established a strong bond with the Mets and their fans. He is, much like Jose Abreu was with the White Sox, an integral part of what the Mets are and should be locked up for life by Steve Cohen
What about Alvarez?
He looks likr a posible Mets lifer.
Alvarez after a brilliant start couldn’t hit ice in the Arctic. Since May 30 his line is .184/.266/.368 and his defense has holes all over the place. (.135/.244/.202. since July 20, fwiw.) He’s very far from a sure thing and the Mets are such a dim organization they couldn’t figure out to move Ronny Mauricio to a position he might actually play, or teach even one of Baty, Vientos, or Ronny to play a competent 3B (or anywhere else for that matter) despite having them for a combined 18 years. Alvy’s just on the wrong team for fixing, should he need fixing.
Yes, that’s true, but you have to make some hard choices about which players you do this with. Look at the Red Sox. They knew they couldn’t keep all of their homegrown stars so they made the difficult decision to trade away Mookie Betts and let Xander Bogaerts walk. Yes, it was hard on the fans, and sure the team is much worse off for it, but… wait, what was I getting at?
hey so “people think alonso is better than he is” is not the reason Mets fans don’t want to see him traded
I mean that’s at least part of the reason, even if it’s not the main one.
The reality is the casual fan isn’t reading fangraphs, and looks Alonso’s sexy RBI totals and value him as one of the best players in the game. Pete Alonso is obviously very good, but Met fans overvaluing him is definitely part of the problem here
As a Yankee fan I would give up any young player other than Volpe or Dominguez for Alonso.
Which is inconveniently the only two players who would actually get him.
Considering how much of his value is derived from power, I’m concerned that he’s one injury away from being near-useless. I certainly wouldn’t want to be the team giving him his next contract.
It’s hard to know if the Cubs and Brewers are even going to be looking for upgrades this winter. The Cubs may prefer to see where they are midseason, and the Brewers have resisted the urge to go all-in before their core hits free agency up to this point.
Among those teams, I think Tyler Black or Kevin Alcantara are reasonable types of prospects to look for. Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, Jacob Misiorowski, and Jeferson Quero are probably not on the table for a rental.
As a first-place club seeking a much-needed stud 1B for (potentially) two postseasons, I think the Brewers were more likely than the Cubs to pay up for Alonso at midseason. But this offseason, that probability reverses. The Cubs have motivation to improve to win the division next year, have a bevy of pitching prospects, and have the payroll to add Alonso and still fill other holes through free agency. It is less risky for them to take a chance on Alonso in 2024, maybe even sign him to an extension.
The Brewers cannot part with *any* farm pitching — as they have little of it and soon-departing aces — and I doubt would be keen on giving up Frelick for a *shot* at one postseason run with Alonso. Wiemer could be had, sure, but that’s probably their best offer. Another team — Cubs or otherwise — will beat that.
IMO, the team most likely to trade for him is probably the Padres. This is because the Padres are the most likely team to make a move of any type. But on the flip side, Alonso likely hasn’t played shortstop since Little League, so the Padres wouldn’t be able to move him off it like they do for everyone else.
Indeed.
Two many IF not enough 1B.
He’d fit perfect with their Window. Thst is, *now*.
Job one for the Cubs is Bellinger.
Job two is Semien.
Alonso might be more of a fallback.
Semien? The guy under contract with the Rangers?
(sigh)
Stroman.
Got me the two Marcus S. all tangled up.
(Brain cramp!)
I think they let Stroman walk.
No way I trust a 33 year-old 5’9″ starting pitcher who is literally falling apart already and unavailable at this crucial time.
I’m going all in on Sonny Gray. And then Snell, or Aaron Nola, or Eduardo Rodriguez, or maybe Giolito. Take a gamble on Julio Urias.
Sonny Gray, who is 33 and 5’10”?
That extra inch makes all the difference tho
TWSS
There’s also the matter of a team figuring it can get two wins from any half-decent slugger able to field remotely passably at 1B or any prospect with an odd combination of skills, then thinking that means they’d be paying an enormous premium just to get an additional 1 to 2 wins a season from Alonso at 1B on the extension he’ll be wanting, and even then only during the few years before his decline become permanent.
Is Anthony Rizzo not on the list because he projects for less than 1.4 WAR? Or some other reason?
Zips projects Rizzo for 1.7 WAR, so I don’t know.
According to Dan’s recent article about the Yankees, Rizzo’s current median projection for next year is 0.9 WAR. The 3 year zips on the player pages are from the beginning of the year
I have a tough time seeing Alonso getting a top prospect in return. I doubt Houston would do it or the Mets would do it, but for a somewhat fair trade it would need to be someone like Jake Meyers (but at a position that Mets need help) that has value and some control, is not as good as Alonso, and the other team has other players at position making them willing to part with the control. I expect Mets are going to try to retool quickly.
The Astros would be a very logical fit for him if not for the fact that the owner almost certainly was the driving force behind signing Jose Abreu. But the Mets already have everyone they want from the Astros’ system it’s hard to see how a deal comes together. Maybe if the Astros remain ideologically opposed to getting offense from the catcher spot then Yainer Diaz could be a trade piece.
I wonder if a team like the Guardians would go after him, even if it’s not their typical way of operating. They have the $ for one year of Alonso after unloading Josh Bell. And they could use a one year rental while Manzardo further develops. Finally, if they have another poor season, they could unload Alonso at the deadline and recoup part of what they traded for him. Not sure what they could give up for him though – Mets would probably have to take a package in return, rather than one high-level prospect.
Not impossible.
Bieber for Alonso?
They have a new minority partner…
Speaking of: Cleveland pulled down the white flag and spent $3.5M on Giolito, Lopez, and Moore.
Go figure.
It’s nice to see someone pull down the white flag
Well, its not like anybody else is taking command.
Glad to see those Yankees players gobbling up WAR at first base (sorry, bad year here). Realistically, it depends on whether you think you are going to contend. But a long term extension? Is he really that good? You have him locked for 2024, you get a pick for the QO in 2025, unless you are really happy with an offer, it’s not a gigantic risk to hang on and see. Sluggers like this don’t always grow on trees, but the only real reason to extend him early is to find a reasonable price.
I agree this is the right approach for the team, and it’s even more true if they think he has some amount of intangible or rooting value to the fans in Flushing that he wouldn’t have to another team. If the two sides are too far apart on a pre-FA extension, just let him go on the market next year with an understanding he’ll give the Mets a chance to top his other offers. If the prospect return is going to be what this article suggests, there’s really not a strong reason to trade him now.
I’m a Mets fan, I love Alonso, I want the Mets to extend him (I’d be tickled if they agreed on 6/130), and I’m pleasantly surprised to see that ZiPS thinks he’ll decline somewhat gracefully but…
…he just doesn’t profile as a dude who is likely to age well, especially given his skill set.
If Pete wants to bet on himself and go to FA, then I hope he hits like Aaron Judge in his walk year. However, Judge’s contract with the Yankees probably wasn’t too wise and betting on Alonso’s mid-30s and beyond going well probably wouldn’t be either.
I suspect that’s the hang up on an extension now and I don’t really see how that can change, barring a massive change in Alonso’s profile and skillset.
I totally agree with your overriding point, but I think ZiPS projections are always smooth curves for all players, positions, and body types. I don’t think they do projections like (4.0 to 0.8 to -0.2 and out of the league) or anything like that, even though we’ve seen plenty of players go that route. I think they tend to follow aging curves down by like 0.5 WAR/year after age 30 or thereabouts
This is largely true, but I would caveat that, to my understanding, ZiPS is at a basic level based on nearest comps amongst historical players (similar to PECOTA and notably not the same framework as Steamer), presumably based on a cluster analysis or something similar. Thus, the aging patterns should reflect players similar to Alonso rather than a generic aging curve.
Likely doesn’t make a massive difference for most players but for edge cases it definitely does.
Dan, if you’re reading the comments, please correct me if I butchered this description of how ZiPS operates.
The problem with Alonso’s bat is that his on base skills are only ordinary, and just power as a carrying tool just doesn’t carry you as far as you would think.
Judge also gets on base. Alonso’s got an old man profile without the definitive old man skill. It’s a problem.
It’s also a question as to how much longer he’s a 1B. If you think that’s 3+ more years, great. If you think he’s a DH sooner than that, than the value is tanked even more
That’s sort of the additional rub. Even if Alonso’s prime extends to 31 with his current ~4 WAR/150 skillset, he doesn’t have a ton of margin of error to drop down.
If he loses some defense, he could pretty easily slide over to DH. If his power slips to “merely” 30ish+ HR pop and his contact drops with it? then suddenly you’re looking at someone who, name aside, would be a pretty fungible Quad A type of have-bat, will-travel slugger.
It may well be that Alonso’s value to the Mets next year is simply greater than it would be to any other team. The likelihood of any team giving up a true top prospect for one year of a 3-3.5 win slugging first baseman who will be making plenty of $ in his last arb year, his age 29 year, seems nonexistent. To my mind, the Mets are probably best served by trying to re-tool and compete for a Wild Card next year with Pete in tow, and then letting him walk as a FA, and get the draft pick. I usually think this is a dangerous strategy — you don’t want to be letting a truly elite player walk for nothing more than a draft pick, but Pete isn’t quite elite and there’s value in trying to compete while Lindor, Nimmo, Alonso, etc. are still in their 20s. I think it’s fair to assume he won’t age well on a long contract through his 30s, so pivoting in 2025 makes the most sense to me.
The variables for me are how much money Cohen would eat to get a better prospect return and whether or not any team thinks Pete’s baseline is a bit higher than ZIPS currently thinks. His numbers this year are dragged down by one brutal month after which he was hit on the hand with a pitch and rushed back, only to hit like a light-hitting backup middle infielder for a few weeks. If a team sees him as more of a 4-win shoe-in than a 2.5.-3 win guy, and Cohen takes on a lot of the salary burden, then maybe some team would send over a 60 FV guy in return.
Mets are reloading for ’25, judging by some comments from Cohen.
If they’re not they’ll want MLB ready pitching.
Cohen has said the team will be competitive and won’t punt 2024 and Rosenthal said they’ll spend on pitching this offseason.
The 2025-26 comment from Scherzer always seemed to me to be them saying “that’s when the Dynasty begins,” not “that’s when we’ll try again.”
I agree. I’d be sincerely surprised if they doing make a legitimate effort to contend next year, even if they think that 2025/26 is a likelier time to really compete with the Braves year in, year out.
Saying they want to be competitive and actually being competitive are two fundamentally different things. They were supposed to compete this year, remember? What they need to fix won’t get fixed in one off season and their prospects they just acquired will be lucky to see any MLB play time next year.
They do want to sell season tickets. And “competitive” takes many forms. Cleveland has been competitive all year despite hitting half a lick.
I am convinced that the Mets are going to be making a major play for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, since he’s so young and they need pitching both now and later. They’re going to try and blow him away with a huge deal. The consensus seems to be that Yamamoto is a full scouting grade higher than Senga, and Senga looks like a mid-rotation starter going forward.
I would also expect them to be in on Mahle (on a deal with a player option or two, let him rehab for a year and then see what he looks like for 2025) and probably also Giolito, Montgomery, and E-Rod to some extent. Maybe Flaherty and Montas too.
Overall I don’t think they’re going to be exactly shying away from signing big name free agents, but mostly because you can’t necessarily count on filling all your pitching holes in a single free agency period. If that means the Mets compete in 2024 too? All the better. Their whole MO has been to spend liberally on free agents without QOs attached, and it’s hard to see that changing.
Agree I’d be very surprised if they didn’t sign Yamamoto and Senga might be a top of a rotation guy he’s been a monster since late May.
Agreed. Senga is nothing like a MOR starter.
I recall an Alonso for Goldschmidt deal being discussed the offseason before Alonso’s rookie year when Goldy was a rental. That never happened and would have been a bad deal but something similar could make sense. If the Mets ate money, could they get someone like Kjerstad?
I also recall (I believe even on this site) a lot of discussion about Alonso’s skillset not being especially valuable past the mid-20s so losing the extra year of team control by calling him up for the full season not being a big deal at the time – this was obviously incorrect then and is moreso now. He may not age well into his 30s but an extra year of team control would have a lot of value.
Alonso’s skillset has a lower ceiling than you’d expect because his on base skills are so mediocre. He has to *really* slug to be a borderline-all star and it’s hard to get higher than that with no defensive, baserunning value and an OBP around .325 to .340. You’d like to see his patience grow as he ages, because he’s otherwise got a very old-player skill profile, but those guys sustain their value with good selection, and his skills in that area haven’t improved in 5 years in the majors.
Are you talking about his BB% or something else? Cause I’m pretty sure 10% isn’t mediocre
Even with a 10% BB%, his OBP is barely over league average because his BA is so low. He needs to have Soto/Muncy/Schwarber walk rates to offset the lack of BA upside. He has always run very low BABIPs, so it’s really difficult to have plus OBP without elite walk rates.
His ba is low at least this year because his babip is around .200 he’s had no luck this year.
10% is pretty low for a slugging 1B.
It isnt really low but its not remarkable. His OBP isn’t bad, but it’s not remarkable. But “OBP is league average, power is awesome, negative everywhere else” isn’t a long-term skillset.
I meant “low” in the sense that a guy with his kind of power should roll out of bed with a 10% walk rate because pitchers should be pitching around him. Even average plate discipline with 80 grade power would get him closer to 15%, which would give him a hell of a lot more room to decline into his 30s.
That’s really my main issue with this profile. It doesn’t require a huge degree of pessimism to see a potential .310 OBP DH in 3 years
It’s still a better skillset than someone like Randal Grichuk, who has great power but can’t post even a league average OBP most of the time, which overall still makes him a pretty decent hitter. Once Alonso starts declining, he’ll likely first fall into Grichuk territory before he falls completely flat.
His BB% is fine but combined with a low batting average, as mentioned, his OBP is only average to slightly above, and there’s a ceiling on how good you can be offensively when you bring absolutely nothing else to the table.
Alonso doesn’t have the ceiling of an Olson or Freeman type at first base because he sucks as a defender and because he doesn’t get on base the way that they do.
As soon as one little bit of his bat-to-ball or slugging decline with age, he’ll pretty rapidly be average. His hold on borderline all star is pretty tentative, and his BB%, while not bad, is also the only skill that can be expected to sometime grow with age, so you’d hope that someone with his profile would do so, because the rest of the skillset is not going to be getting any better than it is now.
Right now Alonso is like a 4th-6th best 1B in the league type of player. But the gap between that and being fairly expendable is another 25-30 points of OBP, and you’d like to see it going in the other direction.
Freeman has nearly double the BABIP of Alonso this year (and his wOBA is a few points ahead of his xwOBA so it isn’t Freeman getting really lucky with bloop singles falling in all the time).
Alonso is striking out at about league average, which is fine – I’d imagine most of the prototypical slugging 1B strike out more often than league average.
But yeah, a higher OBP would be helpful (it always is!)
Citi Field is not a great place to hit and his career numbers are better on the road so it would be interesting to see what he would do with a friendlier home park for a season, how many extra flyballs could he loft into the crawford boxes in Houston per year.
Statcast says otherwise. Actually says he’d have hit 6 less HRs in Houston than Citi Field
Indulge me for a moment…
“The Mets were right in their idea to move on from Tom Seaver in 1977. He was already 32, and the Mets had gotten his best years by far. In fact, his best year on the Reds doesn’t even crack the top 8 years by WAR he put up on the Mets. His ERA jumped significantly, his FIP went up a full run over his Reds tenure, and with an ERA+ of 116 for the Reds, he was merely good, rather than great. Besides, the Mets weren’t going to win anything in the late 70’s and early 80’s, with or without him.”
Now, try making that argument to a Mets fan and see what happens. Mets fans who watched him win 300 games and throw a no hitter in another uniform.
I am aware that comparing Alonso to Seaver is completely laughable, I am only using hyperbole to show that sometimes a player’s value to a fanbase goes far beyond WAR.
This is taking nothing away from Dan, who is correctly showing Alonso’s value on the open market is not as high as some might think.
As a fellow Mets fan, the hyperbole hurts your argument here. Seaver exists in a stratosphere that Alonso would love to be adjacent to in his wildest dreams.
With that said, it doesn’t have to be more than it would be nice to have a homegrown player spend their careers with the Mets.
Maybe he would net a great prospect. Maybe. But Alonso is good to great now and will likely be for several more years. Resources are such that there is no crunch if they pay him something near market value and, IIRC, outside of a guy like Mark Vientos who is very much a question mark at the MLB level, Alonso isn’t blocking anyone.
On the position player side, it’s been pretty damn bleak since the halycon days of Reyes and Wright coming up. Would be great to hold on to some stalwarts like Alonso and Nimmo on the way (hopefully!!!) to a championship.
There will indeed be a crunch if the Mets pay Alonso 7/200m or whatever offensive number he’s looking for above and beyond what Goldy, FF, and Olson got so as to keep him from FA, given we’ve seen how Cohen didn’t even want to spring for a real bullpen after the lunge for Correa failed. Signing Lindor in 2021 cost them an ace in 2021, 2022, 2023…. Signing Nimmo will cost them an All-Star FA in 2028-2030. And so on.
I’m not sure 6 years are an option, myself. Not without options, team or vesting.
Three yes. Four maybe?
Six? With those projections?
Hey, 6 years after the Seaver trade, he was 5-13 with a 5.50 ERA! (He bounced back nicely afterwards though).
The back years of any extension stink, we know that. Alonso will ask for 7 or 8, the Mets will want 4, and they’ll likely meet in the middle at 5 or 6.
And yeah, the last year or two, he will probably be a DH with slightly above average offensive numbers. Which is more than a lot of teams are getting from the DH position anyways.
Look at the projections: it’s not “the last year or two” its the last three years. As in 2.5 WAR over three seasons.
Agreed, but it will be tough to pay him less than what they gave Nimmo, and if there’s a fixed sum, spreading it out over as many years as they can is a plus for the team.
What made the Seaver trade really hurt was that they didn’t get much back. This wasn’t Amos Rusie for Christy Mathewson. Or even Gerrit Cole for Joe Musgrove
Playing Devil’s advocate, I think most casual baseball fans think that trade was a lot more lopsided than it was, in value terms…
Seaver, as I mentioned before, gave the Reds 5 1/2 years of 116 ERA+, and 18.4 WAR, before moving on. Really good, but I guarantee you most baseball fans would’ve guessed the over on that number.
Steve Henderson gave the Mets 4 years, and 9.4 WAR before they traded him for Kingman. Zachry chipped in with 7.3 WAR before moving on, and was pretty promising before injuries took their toll. Granted, getting WAR from one guy is a LOT more valuable than getting it from two, but from a value standpoint, the trade is a long ways away from Bagwell for Anderson…
Sometimes a trade goes beyond just the WAR, when you take everything else into account.
Ya that’s true. People, including me, were comparing Zachry and Henderson with peak Seaver, not Reds Seaver.
“Granted, getting WAR from one guy is a LOT more valuable than getting it from two,….” —Never understood this one. In 2023 it only means you’re able to add the organization’s 25th best player to the roster (typically replacement level or worse on most teams) when he’d otherwise be down in AAA, while the team needing two players to get that much value has to settle for adding only 24 more players to the roster.
The Mets have been targeted players that are a ways away from the majors so far. There are only a handful of fv50s in that portion of their development curve. So it might be a couple of fv40s. There a number of teams that would make sense as dance partners beyond the Cubs or Brewers. The Rangers or Mariners would make a lot of sense. Unless he ends up in Seattle it would make a lot of sense for him not to sign a new contract and try to rebuild his value.
Gilbert and Acuna and not far away they could make their debuts as soon as next year.
Have they? The two centerpieces (Acuna and Gilbert) are in AA with realistic paths to 2024 debuts
And contribute meaningfully, in more than a late season callup? Very unlikely that both will. Gilbert, maybe, especially because the Mets may be desperate for a better fielding CFer than Nimmo, or may simply be desperate for a starting OFer. Acuna’s OPS in Binghamton, though, is .606 and the Mets, because they’re idiots, are playing him almost exclusively at SS. That’s something they did with / to Mauricio, and they’ll soon find out that (a) watching him make 30 errors a season at 2B is unpleasant, and (b) watching McNeil lose 1.5 WAR in the move from 2B to LF is just as foolish as it was 3 years ago when they forgot to teach Mauricio a new position he was at all likely to play—and *SHOULD* play. —Maybe they think Acuna will figure out how to play the OF by watching from the IF?
Trading Alonso for a couple of FV40s whose upsides tend to be as MIRPs or 5th OFers is a certain recipe for permanent fan outrage. The Mets would do better to keep him, make a solid, fair last offer, then when he walks make the QO and take the pick. At least that way Cohen won’t be booed in Queens for the rest of his life.
When you have something solid to offer, always aim to consolidate value received.
Mets fans, particularly the type that don’t come to FanGraphs, seem to have an extremely inflated opinion of Alonso. I recall a future HOFers analysis at The Athletic (I believe by Stark) that dismissed Alonso as very unlikely and most of the comments were focused on his snub. He piles up HR and RBIs and that seems to convince some that he is one of the very best players in baseball.
Even people who read fangraphs sometimes succumb to RBI Fever. These are the people who should know that if you hit Wilmer Flores behind Nimmo, Marte, and McNeil / Lindor he’d rack up 100+ RBI.
Pete Alonso probably bears as much responsibility for the Mets’ downfall this year as any other player, due to his selfish and self-aggrandizing decision to come back weeks early from his wrist injury. If you get Alonso, you’re also taking on his “I’m still better than all my teammates, even with a wrist injury” attitude.
You should call wfan with that one the nincompoop hosts prob would agree.
I am pretty sure when other players do that they get lauded as competitors who are rushing back to help the team.
That doesn’t make it the right thing to do.
It certainly isn’t helpful most of the time, but there are a whole lot old school aphorisms suggesting that it’s not “selfish” or “arrogant.” You can’t make the club in the tub…
How’d that work out for Trout?
Too many pitchers come back early, hurt the team, and eventually themselves. Baseball is not a game for less than healthy players.
It may well be true that he’s better than Mark Vientos
Agree Vientos was at -1 war last I checked
His replacement was more Canha than Vientos.
Canha/Pham
But not Can o’ Spam
Not during the 5 weeks after he rushed back (.137/.252/.295).
We’ve seen a remarkably similar trade in recent history — one year of Goldschmidt to STL. Arizona got two FV 50-caliber players in Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly and a FV 40 in Andy Young. Alonso is probably considered a small step below that version of Goldschmidt, but their values are close enough for the comparison to be made.
Arizona got unlucky and didn’t get much in the long run, but that was still a nice prospect haul for one year of Goldschmidt. It makes all the sense in the world for the Mets to try and make a similar deal and build for ’25.
Relatedly – I had placed a bet on the Mariners when they were hosting the A’s a couple nights ago. When I placed the bet either George Kirby was listed as the scheduled starter. “The Mariners haven’t lost since like May…and they’re hosting the hapless A’s? With Kirby starting?? Free money!!”
Smash cut to a few hours later and Luke Weaver is now listed as the scheduled starter. Chalked it up as an immediate loss before the first pitch is thrown and learned a valuable lesson to make every money line or run line bet tied to the listed starter actually starting.
Thanks for that warm welcome to this meeting of Gamblers Anonymous. Sunny Delight and hydrox cookies are on the folding table by the door.
How is this “relatedly”
“Relatedly, (insert most random thing ever)”
Seeing Luke Weaver’s name reminded me that he helped set some money on fire a couple nights ago
I think you underestimate how good Goldschmidt was compared to Alonso. Alonso may have more power, but Goldy was the total package of power, contact, and on-base ability, plus he’s always been an excellent defender at 1B and also a pretty good baserunner.
Still, if Goldy was good for two FV 50s and a FV 40, I can still seeing Alonso being worth a least a FV 50 and a FV 40.
I missed this one but when he was traded, Goldschmidt had had *5* seasons better than the best season of Alonso’s career. They are not comparable players.
This is exactly what I’m talking about when I say that Alonso is consistently overvalued. The guy has never had a 5 win season (he might scrape across this year). With the Dbacks alone Goldy had 2 5s, a 6 and a 7!
One of those is an outside chance HOFer, the other is a player no one besides Mets fans remembers in 20 years unless someone brings him up.
If you only care about winning games, then Alonso might be overrated among some.
However, at the end of the day, baseball is entertainment.
Player A hits a home run and strikes out three times while player B walks three times and hit a single, then player B did more to help the team win.
What/who are the people who watched the game going to remember, not to mention an arguably larger number of people who only watched the highlights?
Yes, we are in an era where everybody hits double digit home runs and even 20 home run season is not particularly elite.
But even then, very few players can and have hit 40 home runs.
Alonso is all but guaranteed to have three 40 HR seasons in his first four full seasons (and the other is 37HR).
Stanton has a single 40HR season in his career and Judge has two.
Is 40 home runs an arbitrary cutoff? Sure.
Since 2019, HR leaders are
1. Pete Alonso 185
2. Matt Olson 166
3. Aaron Judge 166
4. Kyle Schwarber 164
5. Shohei Ohtani 149
The gap between 1st and 2nd is larger than 2nd and 5th, despite the fact that Alonso calls Citi Park his home (80HR in home, 105HR in away games).
Alonso is no Aaron Judge or prime Stanton, but I don’t think it is irrational for people to value having a 40HR 3.5WAR wRC+ 135 1B in their team over a 20HR 4.0 WAR wRC+ 110 2B.
It’s not irrational.
But the question of trading Alonso isn’t one of absolute value–he absolutely is worth having next year, even two years after that–but the context matters. The Mets are short on starters and unless they run the table on Free Agents they are likely to fall short no matter how many dingers Alonso launches.
Somebody has to go to bring back arms.
So…who?
Alonso is a one dimensional DH faking it at 1B on his last contract year, looking for a 9-figure *long* deal. He is expendable and, as Branch Rickey uxed to say, it is best to trade a player a ydar too early than a year too late. An with Alonso a year is all you have if you can’t extend him.
Extend, trade, or wat h him walk?
What help the franchise more?
Really not sure where people get this idea, unless it’s the reputation he had when called up, still saddling him years later. Do you watch the games? OAA has him as a scratch 1B this year, which pretty much comports with the eye test for me.
He didn’t grade out very well last year, but he seems to be a perfectly functional 1B for the time being.
Definitely agree on that last point. I’d say WAR probably undervalues Alonso to a certain degree, but not to the degree that his RBIs overrate him
Alonso is an interesting case study on the information gap between fans and teams, and how front offices are valuing players very differently than casual fans that are probably still looking at stats from 20+ years ago (HRs, RBIs, etc)
Turn on NY sports radio right now now, and they’re talking about the Mets offering Alonso well north of $200m. The same guys couldn’t understand why Brandon Nimmo was worth what he was worth. A fan has every right to choose which stats he cares about, but it becomes an issue in situations like these when they’re not in tune with modern evaluation
NBA/Soccer has this figured out with sign-and-trade.
The ZIPS number going forward is 6/130.
Let’s say the team really wants him and, including 2024, is willing to do 8/175. (It only takes one.)
They’ll pay more in prospect value to be able to do 8/175 than they’ll pay for one year of control and the potential of QO compensation.
Let players pre-negotiate with teams they’re being shipped to–everybody wins.
The “one” might be Preller.
But baseball’s approach is more fun to watch: Trade and sign (if you can). 😎
I think it would have been worth it for the Cubs to give one of those guys up.
If I’m David Stearns (who will be in charge of this decision in approximately 6 weeks), I trade Alonso during the Hot Stove season, and then, after surveying my options, if I don’t have a better plan after 2024, I try to re-sign Alonso the next offseason, and I’ve basically gotten a free 50 FV prospect, i.e. a big-league regular, who’s A) more athletic than Alonso, and B) about 8 years younger.
Then you had better hope 2023 was ugly enough for Cohen to stop wanting to be the de facto GM
Trading 40 year old mercenaries with zero connection to the team or the fanbase for prospects is one thing. Trading a player that has the potential and is on pace to set every single Mets offensive record and has been the only player that has nearly 100% approval rating among the fans is completely different.
As a Mets fan as well as (I like to think) a smart baseball fan who understands roster building, I’d offer Pete basically the Olson contract. You have to add more money than a simple projection system would offer; this isn’t fantasy baseball. This is real life, and other factors need to be accounted for.
Namely Steve Cohen’s insane and unlimited fortune, as well as Alonso’s popularity, marketing, and his potential place in the Mets history books. The Mets NEVER produce hitters that are both really good and stay with the team. Pitchers, yea, but the hitter that holds the Mets records for home runs is still Strawberry!
The list of hitters in the Hall of Fame that played with the Mets is embarrassing, and mostly consists of late career stints like Rickey Henderson and Roberto Alomar. We have Piazza, Gary Carter for a couple years, and that’s IT! (Keith and Beltran should be in but that’s another story…)
Us Mets fans are starved for homegrown hitters, and if one of the richest men on earth decides he can’t afford a few extra million to let us keep watching one of our favorites, then screw the whole thing…
It’s not the money.
It’s the return.
Alonso can’t pitch.😕
Somebody has to get 27 outs.
He can’t simultaneously be not that good and also fetch a good enough pitching prospect to matter
But like all Met fans under the age of 40, I’ve never seen them win a World Series. That is the only thing I want to see, and honestly I couldn’t care less who hits the most HRs in team history.
Now, you can make an extremely viable argument that the Mets best chance at a WS in the next few years includes Pete Alonso, but I don’t understand the relevance of Alonso hitting more HRs than Strawberry. This is a franchise that has repeatedly prioritized cheap thrills over actually winning games, and I’m hoping those days are over
“The player means more to the fans” is a short term issue. Fans come around with wins. You cant be completely mercenary about it but if they let Alonso walk and are back to winning a year or two later, the fans will have new players they care about.
Cohen invested a lot of money and resources into Lindor. He brought back Nimmo for big money because it made sense. He threw insane numbers at ancient pitchers. That all bought him some good will with the fanbase but now that they’re losing it’s “same old Mets” “the FO is incompetent” etc etc
The 20 or 25 mil a year Pete will make (including just next season in arbitration) could get you Yamamoto and if you make the right trade you might be able to get 80% of Alonso for $800k. It doesnt matter how much money Cohen has if he’s limited by luxury tax penalties – the tax hits still count and if Alonso’s age 32 year is anything like Chris Davis’ age 32 year the fans aren’t going to give Steve credit for keeping him around to make them happy in 2024.
Giving him Freeman’s deal of 6/162 seems close enough to his value that, assuming that the Mets don’t think he’s a clubhouse problem, would be a reasonable contract. You overpay a little for a homegrown guy at a position that is apparently tough to fill and he gets a contract of a “top first basemen in the league.”
He and Ohtani are going to be the meat of the Cubs’ offseason. They can has Triantos, Brown, and Alcantara np, just throw in that lefty with 96-97 Wolf
Oops, few things here:
– *Ideally* he and Ohtani are the meat of the Cubs’ offseason. Ideally the Mets also include that lefty
– “They can has” makes me want to throw up but mostly because it just sounds dumb
– The Cubs org is in fantastic position if multiple of that trio would be an overpayz for an elite among the elite power hitter at a position of need like Alonso. That leaves room to still trade for a SP (Brady Singer? My Skubal dream may be dead)
The Mets should trade Alonso, but I doubt they do. Really two driving factors.
Teams have gotten wise that 1B don’t age well and provide limited defensive value, while 1B and their agents always think they’re going to be the exception that ages gracefully through their mid-30s. See Rizzo, Anthony. And Alonso is already showing some decline though perhaps it’s just a BABIP. And thus it’s pretty unlikely Alonso is going to sign an extension because even if the Mets offer well above a fair deal, he’s going to test free agency.
The Mets already said they aren’t going to be good in 2024. A full year of Alonso is worth much, much more than ~2 months.