Power vs. Finesse: Scouting 2014 Draftees Hess and Imhof

When our other prospect writers submit scouting reports, I will provide a short background and industry consensus tool grades.  There are two reasons for this: 1) giving context to account for the writer seeing a bad outing (never threw his changeup, coming back from injury etc.) and 2) not making him go on about the player’s background or speculate about what may have happened in other outings.

The writer still grades the tools based on what they saw, I’m just letting the reader know what he would’ve seen in many other games from this season, particularly with young players that may be fatigued late in the season. The grades are presented as present/future on the 20-80 scouting scale and very shortly I’ll publish a series going into more depth explaining these grades. -Kiley

David Hess, RHP, Aberdeen IronBirds (BAL, SS-A; Viewed 8/8/14 vs. Vermont)

Hess went in the 5^th round out of Tennessee Tech last June and signed for $280,000.  He is a medium-framed athletic power arm that regularly hits 95 and it still learning to have the consistent off-speed pitches and command to be a starter.  The Orioles development staff is working to have him use just one breaking ball to simplify his repertoire, likely ditching the slider.

Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 40/50+, Changeup: 40/50+, Command: 40/50  –Kiley

Fastball: 60/65

Hess’ fastball is his bread and butter, an explosive pitch that already grades as plus. He worked at 91-94 mph, touching 95 several times in the first two innings of his outing. He shows the ability to add lateral movement in both directions, running some fastballs in on right-handers and cutting others away from them. The pitch can miss bats in all four quadrants, and Hess already has a good feel for sequencing locations and movements with it to put batters away. It will only get more consistently deadly as he adapts to a professional schedule and professional opponents.

Curveball: 35/50

The curve is probably Hess’ most-used secondary pitch, and it comes in twenty mph slower than the fastball at 71-74. As one might expect, it’s a bit on the soft side, and Hess frequently gets around the pitch, costing it bite. However, it does flash big break and good shape on an 11-to-5 trajectory, and he began to find some feel for it as his outing progressed (the .gif’d pitch above was his final pitch of the night, and easily his best curve). Given its flashes and Hess’ pitchability, it could round into a solid pitch in time.

Changeup: 40/50

While Hess turns to the curve more, the changeup is his superior offspeed pitch at present, coming in at 84-87 mph with good sink and occasional fade. It almost looks like a splitter at times, and he tends to drop it out of the zone like one, getting empty swings over the top in two-strike counts. With more reps, it should develop into a consistently average offering.

Slider: 35/45

Hess only threw one slider in the outing; it came in at 82 mph with some bite. The Orioles want him to just pick one breaking pitch going forward, and it’s likely that the slider won’t be a major part of his arsenal, at least for the time being. If he ends up keeping the pitch, though, it could also become a serviceable offering.

Command: 35/55

Hess’ muscular, athletic build evokes fellow Orioles youngster Dylan Bundy, and he employs a smooth, rotational delivery that he should have no trouble repeating as he gets reps, assisting him in spotting his pitches. Like most young pitchers, he isn’t quite at that level of mechanical consistency at present, and he struggles to locate the curveball in particular, but I don’t have significant concerns in that department for the long term. He already has an advanced feel for pitch sequencing and shows the ability to adjust in game, further helping his cause.

Summary

Hess looks to be a good value pick for the fifth round, with a plus fastball, a workable arsenal of offspeed pitches, and the pitchability to make that stuff play up to its full potential. Some might look at his fairly short stature and big fastball and picture him as a late-game reliever, and that’s a plausible outcome, but if the curve and change can round into consistently average offerings, Hess could also find success in a major league rotation.

Matt Imhof, LHP, Lakewood BlueClaws (PHI Low-A–Viewed 7/19/14 at Kannapolis)

Imhof went in the 2nd round (47^th overall) out of Cal Poly last June and signed for just under $1.2 million.  He is 6’5/220 with some funk to his delivery and had a huge draft year with gaudy stats (99.1 IP, 65 H, 43 BB, 124 K), despite his solid-average stuff, with scouts chalking it up to his plane, deception and command.  Some are still skeptical given the pure stuff and a delivery that is tough to repeat at times, but this is the kind of guy that keeps proving scouts wrong and could be a quick-mover.

Fastball: 50/50+, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/55  –Kiley

Fastball: 40/50

Imhof works at 88-91 mph with good downhill plane from his 6’5 frame and high arm slot. The ball gets on hitters quickly than its velocity might indicate because of the deception in his delivery, and he’ll sneak it by batters at the letters, though this strategy may be less viable as he advances. The pitch is fairly straight. Imhof’s fairly mature 220-pound frame doesn’t necessarily imply a lot of projection on the pitch.

Slider: 40/50

I didn’t get a good look at the slider in my viewing—there were steady rains after Imhof’s first inning of work, and he essentially abandoned the pitch (a strategy his opponent, Kannapolis’ Robinson Leyer, would have been wise to adopt, but I digress…) at that point. The ones he threw registered 78 mph and came in on a curveball-esque 11-to-5 trajectory due to the high arm slot, but the pitch has the tightness of a slider. It shows good shape and could be a solid weapon as he refines it, especially to lefties.

Changeup: 45/55

This is often billed as Imhof’s weakest pitch, but in my viewing, it was right there with the other two offerings if not superior. It arrives at 82-83 mph with fade and sink, and Imhof does a good job selling the pitch with excellent arm speed. The cost of the arm speed is that the changeup lacks great velocity separation, but it can still be an average or better pitch without that asset.

Command: 35/50

It’s hard for me to fairly judge Imhof’s command on three innings, two of which were marred by the most rain I’ve ever seen during a game that continued play. He certainly hasn’t had any issues throwing strikes so far (7 BB in 33 pro IP), but how much of that is due to advanced command and how much is due to low-minors hitters having trouble figuring out his arsenal is an open question. Imhof’s mechanics aren’t the most conventional, with a slight pause in the back of the arm action, a pronounced hop to the plate, and a significant back-leg collapse, and he doesn’t seem to repeat his release point consistently. He does have some aptitude for sequencing and good feel for his pitches, and he’s around the zone at present, so he has a chance to hit his spots with some frequency in the future.

Summary

Since he lacks a knockout pitch and isn’t a big projection guy, Imhof has a fairly low ceiling—I’d be surprised to see him as more than a #4-caliber starter in the big leagues. With premium size and three pitches that flash at or near average at present, though, he has a high floor and should at least be able to manage a Jerry Blevins sort of career out of the bullpen unless his skillset backs up from its present form. His consistency with his motion will determine whether he can be an innings-muncher or a deceptive lefty reliever.

Comparing Hess & Imhof

Imhof was drafted three rounds ahead of Hess, but watching them, it’s almost surprising they weren’t drafted in the reverse order. That’s not to say that Hess is a three-rounds-superior talent, but more a comment that he’s the more obviously exciting pitcher, while Imhof’s skillset is more sneakily effective, with three reasonable pitches and deception as opposed to Hess’ big heat and pretty motion. One might think that it would be easier to “steal” a pitcher like Imhof in the middle rounds than one like Hess, but that’s obviously not how it played out.