Predicting the 2019 Trade Deadline
With just a week to go before the trade deadline, it still isn’t entirely clear which teams will endeavor to make additions for a pennant run, and which teams will cash in their 2019 chips to play for another year. In the American League, nine of 15 teams have at least an outside shot at the postseason, with seven clubs having a legitimate chance. The National League is even more competitive, with every team but the Marlins possessing some chance at the playoffs, and eight clubs having a reasonable path to the postseason.
Below, we’ll go through the trade scenarios for the teams considering moves. Keep in mind, much of these proposed swaps are simply a framework for how a deal might look. Also important to keep in mind? Most of these predictions will be completely incorrect! Please consume the deals below responsibly, and use this as a preview of what teams need, want, and might do over the next week. Unless any of the predicted deals happen; in that case, I expect to receive full credit.
First, some things that won’t happen:
Star Pitchers Are Staying Put
The Tigers aren’t likely to get the kind of offer they want for Matthew Boyd, who has given up 15 homers in his last eight starts. The Mets aren’t going to get the young stars they want for Noah Syndergaard. Cleveland seems less likely to deal Trevor Bauer now that they are back in the race. Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray probably aren’t going anywhere. Even Caleb Smith of the Marlins, or Brad Keller and Jake Junis of the Royals, seem destined to stay put.
The big question remaining is San Francisco, which brings us to a few things that will (maybe) happen:
San Francisco Giants
Everyone wants to know whether the Giants will deal Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, and Sam Dyson or will take their slim playoff hopes through the rest of the season. The guess here is that they make two big moves. First, they make a trade with the…
Minnesota Twins
The division title that once seemed inevitable is looking a little precarious as Cleveland has closed the gap in the Central considerably. With a tight Wild Card race looming if the Twins were to cede control of the division, we’ll see Minnesota make a big move to try and stave off the competition. The Giants won’t send Madison Bumgarner alone, and will also provide Minnesota with another reliever in Sam Dyson. Minnesota will be loath to part with Alex Kirilloff, and instead will send their third and fourth-ranked prospects in Brusdar Graterol and Trevor Larnach. As for Will Smith, the Giants will then make a deal with their rival…
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers don’t need much, but they could use some help in the bullpen. Will Smith fits a need perfectly, though the teams don’t match up perfectly, prospect-wise as the Giants don’t really need a catcher. The Dodgers have a lot of depth and Farhan Zaidi knows the system. Expect Smith to move without a headliner in return, but with two or three intriguing prospects. The Dodgers probably won’t stop there and will likely grab another reliever to bolster the pen for the playoffs. The Dodgers have the best record in the National League and will still make a decent-sized move, the team with the best record in the American League will go even bigger…
New York Yankees
The Yankees have a reasonable case to be conservative at the deadline given their huge division lead, but that means they can start making moves for the playoffs and 2020. For the most part, that means getting their rotation fixed. The team’s presumptive two best starters, Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton, have struggled lately and Domingo German has already pitched more innings than he did a season ago. With Luis Severino’s status in doubt, the Yankees could approach their division foes the Toronto Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman. Oft-rumored trade piece Cint Frazier isn’t enough to get Stroman so the clubs get creative with the Blue Jays including Ken Giles and the Yankees parting with the injured Miguel Andujar. As for the second-place team in the East…
Tampa Bay Rays
With the division moving out of reach, the Rays are in a tough fight for the Wild Card. A 40-man roster crunch, which will require some consolidation at the end of the season, also looms. The Rays might not score a big name, but they should land multiple players as the deadline approaches. The Orioles’ Mychal Givens is one player who might be of interest. Roenis Elias and Domingo Santana from Seattle could fit the bill as well. Among the prospects outside of their very best, Ronaldo Hernandez, Lucius Fox, Moises Gomez, Matt Krook, and Curtis Taylor are all eligible for the Rule 5 draft and could find themselves on the move. Continuing this look at the AL…
Cleveland Indians
Now that Cleveland has put themselves firmly in the playoff mix, they sort of have to do something, but that “something” is unlikely to be very exciting. If the team gets Corey Kluber back, their rotation should be strong up front with Trevor Bauer, Shane Bieber, and Mike Clevinger. The bullpen is in decent shape, but we could see a smaller move there. The team still desperately needs help in the outfield. Bringing in Yasiel Puig from the Reds would add a lot of excitement and while it is a possibility, it seems more likely they end up with Corey Dickerson. Speaking of teams in need of outfield help…
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are still in first place and they’ve gotten great performances from their stars, but the same cannot be said of the supporting cast. They don’t need rotation help, and they already added Craig Kimbrel, but Kyle Schwarber can’t seem to hit lefties and Albert Almora can’t seem to hit at all. Chicago and Detroit have traded before and though pushing Jason Heyward to center on most days isn’t the best scenario, Nick Castellanos probably provides the biggest upgrade. Eric Sogard from the Blue Jays makes a lot of sense for the infield, and he might fit the Cubs’ price range. Toronto is like to be one big seller, but they aren’t there only one…
Seattle Mariners
Most of this space has been devoted to contenders, but Seattle has a lot of players it can move. Domingo Santana and Roenis Elias have already been mentioned. Mike Leake nearly threw a perfect game, and has another year on his contract. With the Brewers losing Brandon Woodruff, taking on Leake’s salary could provide the rotation a lift without giving up much in the way of prospects. Marco Gonzales has been solid, if inconsistent, and the Atlanta Braves might have some young pitching Seattle could use. Offers for Tim Beckham won’t likely be too enticing, though that hasn’t stopped Jerry Dipoto from making a move anyway. Maybe the Red Sox will swoop in with something to Seattle’s liking. In the same division…
Houston Astros
The Astros could use a starter, and that starter doesn’t need to take on a lot of innings in the regular season. He should be an upside play who can potentially slot in behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the playoffs but ahead of Wade Miley. A trade with the Mets for Zach Wheeler makes a ton of sense. The Astros have a bunch of pitchers outside the top-50 overall who rate as at least 45 FV prospects and should be ready to pitch next season in the majors. Assuming the Mets are still trying to compete next season, there should be a match here. As for the other team in Texas…
Texas Rangers
The Rangers got off to a surprisingly good start this season, but have fallen pretty far off pace of late, and could capitalize on the lack of sellers at the deadline. Texas has a ton of smaller pieces to deal including Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe, and Asdrubal Cabrera, though the returns won’t be great. The big prize is Mike Minor, who has another year left on his deal. Even if Texas plans to compete next season, the club could get younger, cheaper major league-ready players for Minor and hit free agency in the winter for his replacement. The Braves make a lot of sense for Minor, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals dealt either Harrison Bader or Tyler O’Neill and some majors-adjacent pitching to land the Rangers’ lefty. As for St. Louis…
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are still in the race, but after trading for Paul Goldschmidt in the winter and declaring 2019 different from recent playoff misses, the standings don’t show much change from the last three years. John Mozeliak loves to acquire lefty relievers, and while Minor is a former lefty reliever, expect another addition there, perhaps Tony Watson. The team needs its offense to produce as-is, without outside help. Trading an outfielder (or two if an AL club is interested in Jose Martinez) would make sense as Marcell Ozuna comes back and the team is still looking for room to give Randy Arozarena a shot. The Cardinals have prospects in Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson to be the centerpiece in a bigger deal, but the team seems unlikely to part with either one (for good reason). As for another team unlikely to part with prospects…
Arizona Diamondbacks
In Arizona, the team has a shot at the playoffs, but GM Mike Hazen doesn’t seem inclined to add to the roster. He has some desirable pitching in Robbie Ray and Zach Greinke, but selling isn’t really required, either. Arizona’s top prospects are a few years away with riskier profiles so the team is likely to wait out those players to see if they can produce a star. Adam Jones and Jarrod Dyson might fetch small returns, but staying competitive the rest of this season and trying to make another run next year with an improved farm system looks like the most likely route. A team that might want to give up prospects…
San Diego Padres
The Padres have been searching for starting pitching since last winter, but haven’t been able to land the rotation piece they desire. The wait continues, as the price tag for the available starters right now factors in a playoff run in 2019, and that’s not a value for the fading Padres. The team likely keeps its outfielders until the offseason when it pursues a starter. The question for San Diego is what to do with Kirby Yates. The ace closer is having a great season and won’t be eligible for free agency until after next year. The Friars don’t have to trade him, but his value will likely never be higher. The team that needs him the most might also be the team willing to part with the best players…
Washington Nationals
The Nationals were having a rough go of it earlier this year, as multiple injuries took their toll. Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg helped fuel a healthy run to put the club in playoff position, but the team still needs help once the starters exit the game. Yates is the best available reliever, but to get him the Nationals will have to do two things. First, they’ll need to give up a decent prospect in Luis Garcia. Second, they’ll need to take on $40 million of the $60 million salary Wil Myers is owed in the three years that follow this season. Myers’ backloaded contract means the salary tax hit will end up around $7 million per year, which is palatable for the Nationals, and they’d get a first baseman to replace the currently hurt Ryan Zimmerman, whose contract runs out at the end of the season. A team unlikely to take on a big contract…
Oakland A’s
They are doing it again in Oakland. The team is playing well, but they could probably use another starting pitcher and an outfielder. There is a team out there potentially willing to move both…
Cincinnati Reds
Tanner Roark and Yasiel Puig were brought in to help make the Reds competitive, and they’ve succeeded; the Reds have a positive run differential. It hasn’t been enough, though, and Cincinnati needs to start looking to next season. Roark and Puig are free agents along with Jose Iglesias and Scooter Gennett. The team’s shortstop and second base pair aren’t likely to garner much given the former’s weak hitting and the latter’s injury-filled 2019, but they can be moved for something. As for Roark and Puig, maybe Oakland would part with former prospect Franklin Barreto, as well as Triple-A infielder Jorge Mateo and a lottery ticket pitcher for a couple of pending free agents. If Roark doesn’t go to Oakland…
Los Angeles Angels
The Trout-led Angels aren’t out of it, but they aren’t going to be really in it if they don’t get better starting pitching. Putting the tragic loss of Tyler Skaggs in baseball terms is unfeeling and gross. The Angels tried to fix their starting pitching in the winter by signing Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey to one-year deals. It didn’t work. The team isn’t likely to move too many prospects next week, but Ivan Nova of the White Sox might make some sense. Taking on Todd Frazier with Tommy La Stella out might help a little, as well. The Angels are kind of stuck. Another team without much to do…
Colorado Rockies
Colorado has nearly fallen out of the race, but they don’t have a lot of pieces to move. Scott Oberg or Carlos Estevez might make decent pen additions for some teams. If the team is still down on Jon Gray, he could land a decent return. Otherwise, most everybody else is coming back for next year as the team tries to sneak in another run with the core of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and the group of young starters who helped them to the playoffs a year ago. Continuing on this theme…
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies were a year ahead of schedule last season and faded down the stretch. The club went out and got a whole lot better in the offseason, but Andrew McCutchen went down with an injury, Odubel Herrera was suspended under the league’s domestic violence policy, and David Robertson hasn’t been healthy. With Aaron Nola taking a small step backwards and Jake Arrieta taking a big one, the Phillies are still in the race, but they need pitching help. Drew Smyly might help a little, but the high-priced relievers likely aren’t fits. Expect multiple relievers — maybe Alex Colome — to go with a Jake Diekman return in column B to help Philadelphia as it fights for a Wild Card spot. In slightly better position than the Phillies…
Milwaukee Brewers
A division title is still a possibility for the Brewers, but Brandon Woodruff’s injury creates some urgency for the rotation. Mike Leake is mentioned further up, though the Brewers might not stop there. Another reliever, maybe Shane Greene, is an inevitability, but another cheap starter, like Jason Vargas, makes some sense as well. As for Vargas’ current team…
New York Mets
With Wheeler gone to the Astros and Vargas to the Brewers in this post, the big question is Syndergaard. I don’t think he’s going anywhere, at least until winter, but the Mets have a few other players who might help contenders. Todd Frazier heads to Anaheim. Maybe somebody wants Justin Wilson, who has pitched better of late. Everybody else is either too valuable or not valuable at all. One team looking for value…
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have four healthy starters with Max Fried out with a finger injury and Mike Foltynewicz still working on his home run issues in the minors. The team might be looking to make a big move for a starter, but Marco Gonzales seems the more prudent, Atlanta-like choice. Expect a reliever to head to Atlanta as well, maybe Ian Kennedy with some of that payroll flexibility. The club will likely hold on to its top prospects.
Notes
Twenty-two teams received individual paragraphs above, with every other team mentioned at some point. Other position players on those teams who are likely to move include Pablo Sandoval, Melky Cabrera, Josh Harrison, and Justin Smoak, with Baltimore’s Trey Mancini and any White Sox position players less likely to change clubs. Other than the veteran outfielders, the Pirates probably stand pat. The Red Sox might add a reliever, but not much else. Whit Merrifield is very likely staying put given the Royals’ reported asking price. The Marlins could move Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, and Martin Prado somewhere for little to no return. Nearly every contending team will add a reliever at the deadline; apologies to all the relievers not mentioned.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Interesting that he sited Marco Gonzales as a potential match for Atlanta. I have been wondering the same. Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller seem like perfect fits for a Seattle team likely to start making some noise in 2021 and getting louder in 2022. A.J. Graffanino is another piece that might fit nicely for a team lacking infield depth to move forward with.
I don’t know if that’s too much to ask, maybe Sam Tuivailala or Roenis Elias would need to be included (if moving Gonzales is even a thought for Jerry). But it’s easy to see how these two clubs match up.
This is a really great write up. Virtually everything suggested makes sense.
Nice job, Craig.
If the Braves were willing to part with Anderson, it would be for a far better player than a guy with a 5.18 xFIP. Craig’s point was that the Braves will “likely hold on to its top prospects,” which means shooting for lesser starters like Gonzales, which means no Anderson.
Ian Anderson is almost untouchable in that system I believe. Marco would maybe fetch a couple of prospects at the backend of the top 30 in that system. Definitely not anyone in the top 5.
Marco wouldn’t likely be available for another Max Povse/Rob Whalen exchange.
True, but Atlanta has other SP prospects who are very good and would instantly upgrade Seattle’s farm. Guys like Muller, Wentz, Allard … even a Touki.
Now, I personally would not want to part with them for him because I’m just not big on low-strikeout pitchers like Marco, even with team control (and given his mostly meh xFIP history in the majors and minors, 2018 notwithstanding). I just wouldn’t see it as a big enough upgrade to the current rotation. But if the Braves wanted him, they could certainly put a package together of SP prospects who aren’t Anderson.
Atlanta has a lot of interesting arms. I even like Weigel. Muller was one that cited in my original comment, which I realize was poorly worded. I just think Seattle’s focus will be on a potential front-line starter, even if it means coughing up prospects.
Gonzales (sadly) is Seattle’s best starter right now. Leake won’t be around too much longer, Kikuchi has yet to figure out MLB hitters, Sheffield needed a demotion to get his command, and Dunn is at least another year out. Gilbert is a good two years out.
They’re leaning on LeBlanc and Milone. Felix’s contract is up at the end of the season, and while Seattle is rebuilding, Jerry has been clear that they want to see things pick up in the second half of 2020 and start their run in 2021.
Personally, I think that’s a stretch. But if Gonzales is their best starter and he gets traded, that becomes even more of a stretch unless they replace him with someone better.
If I were Atlanta, I’d stay patient with Wright and Anderson. But it’s easy to see Seattle doing the same with Gonzales unless they can take advantage at the deadline and poach an arm with better potential than Gonzales.
Ironically, Leake might make the most sense for Atlanta. He would likely waive his no-trade clause to go to a contender and he wouldn’t cost them a significant prospect if they were willing to absorb most of his salary.
Mike Leake costs something like $4M for the rest of this year and $11M next year. Based on the Nova deal, Seattle would probably have to eat about another $4-5M to give him away without getting anything of note back.
This doesn’t contradict anything you said, it’s just a point of interest.
All good. He has the buyout for 2021 as well, which is 5m. All the more reason any return would be insignificant. He’s a good fit for any contender that needs innings and would rather pay cash than talent.
” I just think Seattle’s focus will be on a potential front-line starter, even if it means coughing up prospects.”
I mean, yeah, every team wants potential front-line starters, which is why these days, savvy teams are much less likely to include potential top-end starter prospects in trades for mediocre MLB back-end starters.
Well, when a team is in contention and needs a little push, they’re more likely to pay a little more than they would otherwise if that appeared to be the difference. That doesn’t mean Anderson has to be the guy sacrificed, nor does it mean Gonzales would put them over the edge.
But it’s more of a stretch to think a team that lacks pitching, and is trying to get back in the race soon, is going to give up their best starter for players/prospects with lower ceilings. Gonzales, despite his flaws, is still a top 30 starter and Seattle doesn’t have a clear cut replacement for the top spot in Seattle’s rotation yet.
Seattle isn’t likely moving Gonzales unless there’s an overpay.
“Gonzales, despite his flaws, is still a top 30 starter ”
by xFIP, xFIP-, and K%, he’s one of the 10 worst qualified starters in MLB.
“it’s more of a stretch to think a team that lacks pitching, and is trying to get back in the race soon, is going to give up their best starter for players/prospects with lower ceilings.”
Most of the other prospects I mentioned above have high ceilings but are just less likely to reach it than Anderson. That’s the type of prospects teams get back when they trade mediocre-at-best starting pitchers.
“Seattle isn’t likely moving Gonzales unless there’s an overpay.”
This might be true, and it might also be true that like Detroit with Fulmer (and quite likely with Boyd), they will be a bit disappointed that they held on too long. Trying to extract an overpay for an average to below-average pitcher based mainly on one good year (or in Boyd’s case one good half-year) is how you end up with a not great farm system. Seattle was lucky the Mets vastly overpaid last year for Diaz. That’s not likely to happen for a guy who will barely, if at all, actually upgrade the rotation he’s joining.
Run a search right here at fangraphs in a standard search and see where Gonzales ranks. He’s not a front-line starter, but you can’t just look at xFIP or K% and suggest he’s one of the worst starters in the game. That’s cherry picking. He is flawed, nobody’s arguing otherwise. But he’s not the train wreck you’re making him out to be, either.
Regarding your comparison to Detroit, it’s not the same situation. They’re nowhere near as close to contention. Gonzales can help the next good Mariners’ team.
We’re done here. If you wish to keep rambling on, feel free to do so. But if Gonzales is actually moved, don’t be surprised if the return is better than you expected. And for the record, if I wasn’t already clear, I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
I haven’t called him a “wreck,” I’ve generally described him as average. To the extent “mediocre-at-best” was too harsh, I retract.
But by most advanced metrics, he’s bottom to middle of the pack (see also FIP-, ERA-, FIP, etc.). He actually reminds me a bit of Julio Teheran, in that he’s able to pitch a number of innings at decent enough production to put up some above-average WAR in a few seasons. There’s value in that. At one point, me and my fellow Braves fans strongly overvalued what we could get for Julio on the market. Teams clearly weren’t offering those packages with top-30 type prospects (the ones with better chances at becoming star players, but not the only ones with chances at becoming star players), and the team held him. In retrospect, I’m not sure it was a great idea, as he’s one of the guys the team would be better off upgrading.
He’s just not the kind of guy most modern teams are going to give up a top prospect for. Maybe that means they hold him and he chews up innings. Maybe he takes a leap forward. Maybe at some point you’ll look back and wish you’d taken a riskier-package back. All I’m saying is it’s highly, highly unlikely the Mariners receive an Anderson-like prospect in return for him at this point. If they do, kudos to Dipoto.
A normal team might not move Gonzales without an overpay. Jerry Dipoto’s Ms? He might well trade the guy away and trade to get him back before the deadline.
He was clear that they might opt to hang on to their top pieces and target someone like Gonzales. But Seattle has zero reason to part with Gonzales for a lesser prospect. They lack starting pitching. Other pieces would have to be included, of course.
That said, I wouldn’t anticipate this happening.
All I can say is that the Mariners waited way too long to sell on Gonzales–they should have sold on him when he was coming off a year where he was healthy (a virtually unheard of thing for him) and had good peripherals. The might have been able to get a good pitching prospect, but now I’m not sure what people would give up for him now. Fourth starters with team control are pretty common; 2nd/3rd starters with team control are definitely not. From the moment they shipped out Diaz and Cano, they should have been taking offers on Gonzales.
On top of that, I’m not sure why Atlanta would be interested in him. I can’t think of a single team with less need for a pitcher with team control through 2023. Atlanta makes sense as a landing spot for a rental because they need a pitcher now, but I count 9 (!) pitching prospects on THE BOARD for Atlanta due up in 2020, and more than half of them are potential starters. I suspect that Atlanta is just going to value that amount of team control less than just about any other team.
I don’t think the M’s would have gotten much at all for Gonzales in the offseason. He needed to go out and prove it again this year for anyone to be comfortable acquiring him. He hasn’t so they should probably just keep him.
He was a top-20 starter last season who had some experience before the surgery and he was a number 1 pick. Sure they could have sold high last offseason.
How high is debatable. I don’t think anyone sees him as more than a number 3 starter.
“I don’t think anyone sees him as more than a number 3 starter.”
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While it is definitely fair to discuss how appropriate it was, Dipoto most certainly saw (and likely still sees) Marco as more than a #3 Starter.
In the 2017-18 offseason, Dipoto extended greater confidence to few players. Were he not an MLB GM, I’d say he’s got a massive fan-crush on Marco:
https://www.inquisitr.com/4759071/seattle-mariners-rumors-marco-gonzales-expected-to-be-a-star/
I consider it probably his greatest blind spot. At every turn I’ve seen Dipoto speak about and move on SP, it’s always been heavily in favor of low-BB, pitch-to-contact types and encouraging/ pushing other starters to more frequently pitch to contact. Gonzales has been the poster boy of Dipoto’s near-obsession with it.
Dipoto was probably hopeful he could be a number 2, but I don’t think he’s under any illusions now that he’s a 3 at best and probably a 4 on a good team.
But to be fair, he made a drastic switch to his shopping list. He initially was looking for that contact and built an outfield he believed would track down the excessive fly balls.
That failed, miserably. Guys like Wade Miley, Chase De Jong, Max Povse, Yovani Gallardo, Dylan Overton, etc., got lit. Even Drew Smyly fit that profile, though he never threw a pitch for Seattle. Some of them were thrown into the fire due to injury, but that approach was clearly a mistake.
Then Gonzales was acquired (more as a future piece) and shortly after, Mike Leake. Though neither missed many bats and are more pitch-to-contact starters, they kept the ball on the ground and I believe they saw something in Gonzales they thought they could fix so that he miss a few more. It worked in AAA, kind of. His velocity was up a tick, which was also encouraging.
Gonzales hasn’t been getting as many grounders this year. He started off well, then went through a pretty ugly stretch, and has somewhat rebounded since, more or less looking like the same number 3 or 4 starter he has been. That’s okay, as long as more isn’t expected of him.
And though we haven’t seen Jerry go after strike out starters–yet–we’ve seen him go after relievers with that potential. It’s worked with guys like Austin Adams, Connor Sadzeck, and to a lesser extent, Brandon Brennan, all of whom are currently on the DL. Dipoto’s probably hopeful they’ll see similar production from McGill and Wisler. Even Parker Markel is in that conversation, though he was DFA’d to make room for Lopes.
Point is, there are signs that Dipoto’s getting away from those kinds of arms you described. Maybe the reason we haven’t seen that with Seattle’s rotation yet has more to do with the lack of starters who consistently miss bats and keep the ball on the ground when there’s contact? Kikuchi had 217 K’s in 2017 in Japan. Surely they expected better results than they’ve seen this season. I wouldn’t bet on seeing more contact pitchers, though.
It’s wait-and-see with Gilbert, Dunn, and Sheffield, but I would bet that if he shells out considerable dough for a starter, or makes a trade for a front-liner (or with that potential), it’s going to be someone who misses more bats than the current batch of starters.
I felt the same. I understood wanting to hang on to Haniger, and agreed with that at the time, but at this point it really looks like they missed out on an opportunity to sell high on both.
I suppose Haniger could come back and put on a show down the stretch to boost his stock in the offseason, but it was odd to hear that Gonzales was an arm they intended to build around.