Predictions That Will Be Wrong
Welcome to the best day of the year. The 2010 season is upon us, and we’re almost to the point where we can stop speculating and start reacting. Before we move on to writing about the happenings on the field, one last speculative exercise – my 2010 predictions. I have no special ability to see the future, of course, but given the information available today, this is what I would guess.
Playoff Teams, AL: New York-Minnesota-Texas-Boston
Playoff Teams, NL: Philadelphia-St. Louis-Colorado-Los Angeles
WS: Minnesota over Colorado
AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Position Player WAR Leader: Alex Rodriguez
NL Position Player WAR Leader: Hanley Ramirez
AL Cy Young: James Shields
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Pitcher WAR Leader: CC Sabathia
NL Pitcher WAR Leader: Roy Halladay
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz
NL Rookie of the Year: Stephen Strasburg
AL Rookie WAR Leader: Brian Matusz
NL Rookie WAR Leader: Stephen Strasburg
Five Random Guesses About 2010:
1. The Braves will take the Phillies down to the wire in the NL East.
2. The Brewers will make the NL Central far more interesting than most people expect.
3. Omar Minaya will be fired before the season ends.
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, and Mark Teixeira will all post positive UZRs and be among the league leaders in defensive value at their respective positions.
5. The first time Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward face each other, time will stand still.
Welcome back, baseball.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
AL MVP Josh Hamilton?
I think someone slipped something in your coffee this morning.
… and I really hope you are wrong with shields, I just traded him away :/
Notice that’s not his selection for the highest WAR. The good media that’s always following Josh Hamilton around will likely generate some votes if he’s in the top tier.
That said, I still don’t think he’ll be in that top tier.
What bugs me is the Neftali Feliz as ROY pick. Is he going to win Rookie of the Year as a relief pitcher? Or is he expected to take over as a starter mideason? Has there even been a RP voted as the ROY?
Do we really think Texas will stick with their current rotation? I find it hard not to see Feliz and Holland in the rotation by July, and for good.
Andrew Bailey
Kazuhiro Sazaki (2000 AL)
Scott Williamson (1999, Reds)
Huston Street
I think this was supposed to be a claim about how people would vote, not who would be most deserving. I bet Dave would list five guys in the AL who he thinks will beat Hamliton by a lot in WAR, but writers won’t see it that way. We already know he likes A-Rod better; I’m sure he thinks Mauer and Longoria are better; I bet he thinks Grady Sizemore is better; and I’m sure that he thinks there are better pitchers (but they have their own award.)
LOL