Production Per Swing in 2012

There are rate stats for just about every kind of opportunity a hitter faces in a game. Batting average tells you how often a player reaches base via a hit. On-base percentage tells you how often a player avoids making an out per plate appearance. But what about swings as opportunities?

Last year, I played around with the idea of production per swing. The idea was to examine what hitters gave the most value when they took a swing. The methodology was pretty simple: calculate the Weighted On-base Average (wOBA) each hitter generated using their swings — instead of plate appearances — as the denominator*.

Of course, there is a healthy correlation between actual wOBA and wOBA per swing (.83 in 2012), but less so Isolated Power (ISO). (wOBA/swing and ISO share only a .53 correlation.) Some of the results may not be all that surprising, but many certainly are.

Let’s first look at the top-25 so far this year:

Top 25 (minimum 100 PAs)

Player	Swing% (pfx)	Actual wOBA	wOBA/swing
Josh Rutledge	50.9%	0.398	0.214
Salvador Perez	49.3%	0.358	0.212
Mike Trout	39.8%	0.422	0.209
Joey Votto	37.4%	0.449	0.205
Jeff Keppinger	42.6%	0.355	0.204
David Ortiz	41.6%	0.422	0.204
Melky Cabrera	47.0%	0.386	0.203
Alex Rios	45.7%	0.357	0.203
Manny Machado	45.6%	0.337	0.202
Carlos Ruiz	47.0%	0.407	0.195
Chris Denorfia	39.0%	0.351	0.194
Billy Butler	42.1%	0.371	0.194
Miguel Cabrera	48.0%	0.412	0.192
Aaron Hill	43.7%	0.366	0.192
Michael Brantley	39.7%	0.319	0.192
Troy Tulowitzki	42.1%	0.360	0.192
Ryan Braun	48.2%	0.417	0.191
David Cooper	44.1%	0.335	0.191
David Wright	40.8%	0.377	0.190
Scott Podsednik	40.4%	0.324	0.190
Allen Craig	43.1%	0.385	0.190
Chipper Jones	43.5%	0.369	0.190
Robinson Cano	48.7%	0.382	0.190
Kevin Frandsen	43.8%	0.347	0.190

Colorado Rockies rookie Josh Rutledge so far has generated the most production per swing for players with at least 100 plate appearances this season. Only 23 years-old, Rutledge has posted a .398 wOBA since being called up to fill in for the injured Troy Tulowitzki. Rutledge has certainly not been shy about swinging the bat, offering at more than half the pitches he’s seen. He’s produced 33 singles, 14 doubles, four triples and seven home runs with his 314 swings. Sure, he plays his home games at Coors Field, but he still managed a 142 wRC+ with only a 2.2% walk rate.

The Royals 22-year-old rookie, Salvador Perez, comes in at No. 2 with a .212 wOBA/swing. Like Rutledge, the young catcher tends to hack — his swing percentage is nearly 50% — but those hacks have lead to a 126 wRC+.

Top 25 (minimum 300 PAs)

Player	Swing% (pfx)	Actual wOBA	wOBA/swing
Mike Trout	39.80%	0.422	0.209
Joey Votto	37.40%	0.449	0.205
Jeff Keppinger	42.60%	0.355	0.204
David Ortiz	41.60%	0.422	0.204
Melky Cabrera	47.00%	0.386	0.203
Alex Rios	45.70%	0.357	0.203
Carlos Ruiz	47.00%	0.407	0.195
Chris Denorfia	39.00%	0.351	0.194
Billy Butler	42.10%	0.371	0.194
Miguel Cabrera	48.00%	0.412	0.192
Aaron Hill	43.70%	0.366	0.192
Michael Brantley	39.70%	0.319	0.192
Ryan Braun	48.20%	0.417	0.191
David Wright	40.80%	0.377	0.190
Allen Craig	43.10%	0.385	0.190
Chipper Jones	43.50%	0.369	0.190
Robinson Cano	48.70%	0.382	0.190
Paul Konerko	44.10%	0.376	0.188
Andrew McCutchen	46.70%	0.401	0.188
Martin Prado	38.00%	0.343	0.188
Prince Fielder	43.30%	0.395	0.186
Nick Markakis	40.90%	0.357	0.186
Jose Altuve	43.00%	0.329	0.184
Joe Mauer	34.60%	0.370	0.184
Yadier Molina	51.50%	0.378	0.184

When we focus on players with at least 300 plate appearances, we see a list mostly of everyday players. Mike Trout and Joey Votto have been one and two in the league for most of the season in wOBA, and both repeat here. Trout and Votto also sport swing rates below 40%, emphasizing how efficient they are when they swing.

The third-ranked player, however, is the Rays’ Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger is playing for his sixth team in eight years. The 31-year-old is having a career year for Tampa Bay, and has posted a 129 wRC+ due in large part to his .204 wOBA/swing. Keppinger is swinging at fewer than 43% of pitches, but he’s made the most of those swings. That’s great value and production for a player asked to man first, second and third base at times this season.

Braves infielder Martin Prado has a very low 38% swing rate, but he’s managed to produce a .188 wOBA/swing and 84 wRC.

Bottom 25 (minimum 300 PAs)

Player	Swing% (pfx)	Actual wOBA	wOBA/swing
Brendan Ryan	44.50%	0.256	0.098
Rod Barajas	52.60%	0.258	0.102
Carlos Pena	42.90%	0.298	0.106
Clint Barmes	52.10%	0.242	0.106
Brian Bogusevic	46.10%	0.275	0.109
Cliff Pennington	44.40%	0.263	0.110
Jordan Schafer	42.80%	0.274	0.111
Jeff Francoeur	52.30%	0.272	0.113
Kelly Johnson	47.10%	0.301	0.117
John Buck	43.50%	0.286	0.118
Dan Uggla	42.50%	0.320	0.119
Sean Rodriguez	48.20%	0.271	0.119
Justin Smoak	43.30%	0.253	0.120
Daniel Descalso	46.00%	0.276	0.121
Dee Gordon	46.30%	0.262	0.121
Josh Thole	44.90%	0.257	0.122
Nyjer Morgan	46.00%	0.275	0.123
Jemile Weeks	38.40%	0.276	0.124
Gregor Blanco	42.80%	0.309	0.125
Gordon Beckham	48.90%	0.283	0.126
Jose Tabata	47.20%	0.273	0.126
Brandon Crawford	49.40%	0.279	0.126
Elliot Johnson	47.30%	0.291	0.126
Everth Cabrera	40.30%	0.302	0.127
Chris Davis	53.70%	0.326	0.128

With every leader board is the laggard board. And Brendan Ryan (.098) has the worst wOBA/swing so far this year. Ryan has a 60 wRC+ and really doesn’t offer much value to the Mariners, outside of his defense (first among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved and second in UZR/150).

The Rays’ Carlos Pena has swung the bat nearly 1,000 times this season, but those swings haven’t been very productive (.106 wOBA/swing). Pena has a wOBA below .300 — and even adjusting for park and league, he’s still been 10% worse than the league average at the plate.

Hacker extraordinaire, Jeff Francoeur, doesn’t disappoint with his 52% swing rate. But but he doesn’t do much with those swings (.113 wOBA/swing). After posting a 117 wRC+ last year for the Royals, the 28-year-old came back to earth this season in a rough way. Francoeur currently has a 68 wRC+, fourth-worst in baseball.

Finally, here is the top 25 for the big-time swingers: those swinging above the 45.2% league average:

Top 25 (minimum 300 PAs and >= 45.2% Swing Percentage)

Player	Swing% (pfx)	Actual wOBA	wOBA/swing
Melky Cabrera	47.00%	0.386	0.203
Alex Rios	45.70%	0.357	0.203
Carlos Ruiz	47.00%	0.407	0.195
Miguel Cabrera	48.00%	0.412	0.192
Ryan Braun	48.20%	0.417	0.191
Robinson Cano	48.70%	0.382	0.190
Andrew McCutchen	46.70%	0.401	0.188
Yadier Molina	51.50%	0.378	0.184
Giancarlo Stanton	48.60%	0.397	0.183
Carlos Gonzalez	45.70%	0.384	0.182
Adrian Beltre	51.20%	0.381	0.181
Albert Pujols	46.10%	0.369	0.180
Matt Kemp	45.80%	0.391	0.180
Jordan Pacheco	47.60%	0.330	0.178
Omar Infante	47.30%	0.315	0.177
Wilin Rosario	48.50%	0.339	0.175
Ian Desmond	54.70%	0.362	0.175
Aramis Ramirez	51.30%	0.382	0.172
Willie Bloomquist	49.70%	0.303	0.171
Matt Holliday	47.70%	0.382	0.170
Yoenis Cespedes	48.20%	0.359	0.170
Tyler Colvin	50.60%	0.374	0.170
Jay Bruce	45.90%	0.373	0.170
Scott Hairston	46.30%	0.346	0.169
Erick Aybar	50.20%	0.316	0.168

Everyone’s favorite replacement-level player, Willie Bloomquist, made the top-25 list with a .171 wOBA/swing. Yes, he swings almost 50% of the time. And, yes, he walks less than 4% of the time. Still, Bloomquist manages to produce a solid amount of value with those swings. For example: Bloomquist, who has a mere .096 ISO, actually has a higher wOBA/swing than Mark Trumbo (.159) and Bryce Harper (.143). And both of those guys swing as often as Bloomquist.

In terms of examining the value of wOBA/swing, part of it is just amusement. But I think there’s some value in the metric when looking at young players with limited playing time. Or in Bloomquist’s case, understanding what value replacement-level players may provide that other metrics might overlook. No, this doesn’t mean Bloomquist is much more valuable than what other metrics suggest, just that the value he has can be understood in a different way.

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Data and wOBA coefficients are current as of Sept. 10, 2012.

*wOBA here was calculated using the following equation: [(1B*.880)+(2B*1.250)+(3B*1.583)+(HR*2.042)]/Swings