Projecting Defense-Heavy Players
If you haven’t yet played around with the 2011 Fan Projections ballots, well, you’re missing out on some good fun. Well, as much fun as you can have while clicking drop-down boxes. I suggest putting on some music and clicking along with the beat. That should help you power through projections for the more known quantities. You might run into some trouble, though, when getting to a certain type of player.
This year, of the 45 players who produced 4 or more WAR, nine of them relied more on the fielding component than the batting. That makes them a bit tougher to project than your offense-heavy slugger. Player such as Albert Pujols and Joey Votto we can get a read on, because they’re probably going to produce gaudy offensive numbers. But the defense-heavy guys? It’s tough to imagine what we’ll see from them in 2011.
The problem is that we see more fluctuations in UZR than we see in offensive stats. One season of UZR, after all, isn’t the most reliable sample. The year-to-year variance could certainly hurt any of these nine players. How, then, should we forecast their 2011 seasons?
Here are the players:
Andres Torres
Brett Gardner
Jay Bruce
Angel Pagan
Ichiro Suzuki
Chase Headley
Michael Bourn
Marlon Byrd
Brandon Phillips
You can click here to project all nine players. I suggest putting on a slow ballad. You know, turn down the intensity. Really take your time to dig in and get a grasp for what these guys will do in 2011. With their reliance on the fluctuating UZR, I’m not sure it will be at all similar to what they did in 2010.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
Projecting Ichiro didn’t seem too difficult. Most of his numbers average right in the ranges available. And, well, he’s basically a lock to be the exact same player for the next 53 years, right?
Probably not since he will be an awesome closer after 45 years old.
I thought he was going to be a 50 homer guy / 125 RBI guy?
What the heck, I can’t keep track of all my bizarre, unfounded discussions of Ichiro’s talents.
He could be if he wanted to, just like Ty Cobb and Wade Boggs. The only reason why they don’t hit 50 HRs a season is because they choose not to.
How many times has something like that been said?
I really want to see Ichiro play baseball at the age of 90.
I think this article might actually say less than nothing.
What about when Bourjos gets 4 WAR this year just from defensive value?
The crazy thing is, that is absolutely possible.
Did anyone else think this was going to be about Kung Fu Panda
I think thats more likely then him learning any english
Sandoval’s fielding was indeed more valuable than his “hitting” in 2010: 0.3 WAR to -3.5 WAR. He just didn’t clear 4.0 WAR.
What is the variance of UZR?
What is the variance of OBP? SLG? OPS? wOBA?
What is the variance of ERA/RA/FIP ??
I don’t think this is too hard. Just by taking a holistic approach I think you can determine where a lot of these guys will fall.
For example, every metric has agreed for years that guys like Crawford, Torres and Ichiro are excellent defenders. Except for a little age regression thrown in it seems doubtful that they will fall off much.
Guys like Pagan and Bruce are still young and have been consistently trending upwards so I’d say it looks better for them.
On the other hand, guys like Chase Headley and Marlon Byrd have historically been right around average with the glove. Their seasons look like outliers, the different metrics don’t really agree on them, and the FANS don’t think they’re awesome either. Much less likely they repeat.