Projecting Dustin Fowler

On Tuesday, the Yankees called up infielder Tyler Wade in the wake of Starlin Castro’s injury. They dipped into their farm system again on Wednesday, calling up Miguel Andujar (3.6 KATOH, 2.6 KATOH+) to replace the injured Matt Holliday. And wouldn’t you know it, they did it again today. This time it’s Dustin Fowler getting the in place of Tyler Austin.

Fowler is easily the best prospect who was called up this week. He’s demonstrated a rare combination of power and speed in the minors, mashing 12 homers this year to go along with 13 steals. He’s also kicked in eight triples after lacing 15 last season. Fowler doesn’t strike out all that often, either. He’s whiffed 20% of the time this season, which puts him right around league average.

On defense, Fowler has primarily played center field, though he’s gotten regular reps at both outfield corners. He possesses plus speed, which is typically more than enough to man center field, but the metrics aren’t fond of him out there. Clay Davenport’s numbers have him as a -14 defender over roughly a full season of games in center between this year and last. Regardless, he should be more than fine in an outfield corner, which is where New York will likely use him for the time being.

Fowler’s offensive success as a 22-year-old center fielder at Triple-A makes him one of the most compelling prospects in all of baseball. My KATOH system pegs him for 9.1 WAR over his first six seasons by the stats-only method and 8.0 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his prospect ranking. Those marks place him 11th and 26th, respectively, among prospects. The discrepancy between KATOH and KATOH+ is because Baseball America left him off of their most-recent top-100.

To put some faces to Fowler’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Fowler’s Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Fowler’s come a long way since the Yankees drafted him in the 18th round four years ago. He’s displayed an interesting power-speed combo since his early days as a professional, and has basically had three breakout seasons in a row. His one flaw is that he rarely walks, but in KATOH’s eyes, that’s more than outweighed by everything else he does well. Fowler has flown somewhat under the radar as a prospect. As far as I’m aware, Eric Longenhagen was the only one to put him in a top-100 list. But now that he’s hit his way to the Bronx, he may not fly under the radar much longer.