Projecting the College Players Taken on Day Two of the Draft

June 14, 2017

Yesterday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Between then and now, an additional 240 players have been selected. Eric Longenhagen considered some notable selections this morning from both the American and National leagues. Let’s take a look at what my math says about some of those players.

Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-eight hitters and top-eight pitchers selected in rounds 3-10. Below that, you’ll find by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.

Brian Howard, RHP, Oakland, 2.5 WAR

A senior out of TCU, nothing about Howard’s 2017 performance jumps off the page. He’s been quietly effective over his college career, however, allowing just 10 homers in over 250 innings and posting a 3.52 ERA. KATOH penalizes him for already having turned 22, but loves his 6-foot-9 build. Just a tall pitcher with a strong body of work in a good conference.

Connor Seabold, RHP, Philadelphia, 2.2 WAR

Seabold has been a top Big West pitcher each of the past three years, racking up 292 strikeouts in 275 innings while walking just 42. His numbers ticked down a bit from his excellent sophomore year, but he was still extremely effective.

Trevor Stephan, RHP, New York (AL), 2.1 WAR

The right-handed Stephan put up big strikeout numbers in the SEC this year, trailing only Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, and Kyle Wright, all of whom were no-doubt first rounders. He was a JuCo reliever before this year, so he doesn’t have much of a track record. But he was one of the best starters in one of the best conferences this spring.

KJ Harrison, C/1B, Milwaukee, 1.9 WAR

Harrison’s numbers plateaued this past season, but he’s now put together three strong seasons in a row. He doesn’t tip the scales in any one particular area offensively, but offers a bit of everything: good contact numbers, power, walks, and even a touch of speed. Throw in that he’s aged somewhat like sophomore (turns 21 in August) and KATOH’s on board. My projection assumes he’s a first baseman, since that’s where he played almost exclusively in college. If he’s able to stick at catcher, he could be quite the player.

Noah Bremer, RHP, Texas, 1.9 WAR

Bremer pitched well as a swingman for Washington this year. His strikeout and walk numbers have never been elite, and were actually underwhelming when he started as a freshman and sophomore, but his 6-foot-5 frame and three years of solid work in the Pac-12 caught KATOH’s eye.

Mac Sceroler, RHP, Cincinnati, 1.8 WAR

Sceroler was rock solid this spring for Southeast Louisiana, leading the Southland Conference in strikeouts. He’s pitched well since his freshman year but has gotten progressively better each season. He’s aged like a senior, which gives KATOH pause, but his performance has been great.

Brian Shaffer, RHP, Arizona, 1.7 WAR

A 6-foot-5 righty from Maryland, Shaffer walked just 40 batters in his 273 college innings. His strikeout numbers have been more good than great, but he’s still managed to be a top performer in the Big 10 for two years running. He also doesn’t turn 21 until August, so he’s aged kind of like a sophomore.

Erich Uelmen, RHP, Chicago (NL), 1.4 WAR

Uelmen was one of the top hitters in the Big West this spring, striking out over a batter per inning and allowing just one homer in 15 starts. He also pitched well his sophomore year at Cal Poly and last summer on the Cape. He just turned him 21, making him young-ish for a college junior.

Will Toffey, 3B, Oakland, 1.4 WAR

Toffey’s appeal is built almost entirely around his ability to control the strike zone. He racked up 48 walks last year while only striking out 30 times, yielding an impressive .354/.475/.602 slash line. He also played well on the Cape last summer. He’s a bit on the old side, as he’ll be one of only a few players drafted with a 1994 birthday. How crazy is it that someone born in 1994 is “old”?

Joey Morgan, C, Washington, 1.3 WAR

Morgan’s numbers have gotten progressively better over his three seasons at Washington, as he’s gone from hitting .215/.318/.323 as a freshman to .324/.427/.500 this year. He’s now a very good offensive catcher who provides plenty of doubles and walks. He’s also on the young side, as he doesn’t turn 21 until September.

Eli Morgan, RHP Cleveland, 1.2 WAR

Morgan struck out a ton of batters at Gonzaga this spring, leading the West Coast Conference with 138. He was solid his sophomore year, as well, but really impressed on the Cape last summer. At 5-foot-10, he’s rather short for a pitching prospect, but his recent performance over the past year has been great.

Ernie Clement, 2B, Cleveland, 1.0 WAR

After a strong sophomore campaign, Clement really started making noise last summer by hitting .353/.400/.395 on the Cape with a league-leading 19 steals. He underwhelmed this year, however, by hitting an empty .315. Clement makes an obscene amount of contact — he struck out just seven times in nearly 300 plate appearances — but he walks almost as infrequently and is completely devoid of power right now.

Jonah Todd, OF, Los Angeles (AL), 0.9 WAR

Although he didn’t hit any homers last season at Auburn, Todd still looks promising due to his extreme contact abilities. He hit .376/.460/.471 on the strength of a 10% strikeout rate. He also flashed some speed, lacing five triples and swiping nine bases.

Brett Netzer, 2B, Boston, 0.9 WAR

Netzer hit a strong .342/.425/.509 as a junior this year at UNC Charlotte, driven by his sub-10% strikeout rate. He played in Conference USA, which means he faced weaker competition than many of his peers. But he performed on the Cape last summer and has three years of solid college numbers under his belt.

Taylor Walls, SS, Tampa, 0.9 WAR

Walls’ strength is controlling the strike zone. He walked 63 times in 65 games this year while striking out just 43 times. He performed similarly last season, when he also hit for doubles power. He’s held his own offensively in the ACC, while also playing shortstop, which makes for an encouraging overall package.

Mike Papierski, C, Houston, 0.8 WAR

Papierski’s bat hasn’t taken off in college, as he finished up with a .258/.409/.450 batting line this year. He walked plenty, but didn’t hit for power and struck out rather often for a guy with only middling power. Still, he’s a catcher from a top conference who’s shown promise with the bat.

*****

College Players Drafted in Round 3-10

Round	Pick	Organization	Name	Pos	School	KATOH
3	79	TBR	Taylor Walls	SS	Florida State	0.9
3	83	PHI	Connor Seabold	RHP	Cal State Fullerton	2.2
3	84	MIL	KJ Harrison	C	Oregon State	1.9
3	86	COL	Will Gaddis	RHP	Furman University	0.0
3	87	CHW	Luis Gonzalez	CF	New Mexico	0.1
3	88	PIT	Dylan Busby	3B	Florida State	0.6
3	89	MIA	Riley Mahan	2B	Kentucky	0.7
3	92	NYY	Trevor Stephan	RHP	Arkansas	2.1
3	93	SEA	Wyatt Mills	RHP	Gonzaga	0.2
3	94	STL	Scott Hurst	CF	Cal State Fullerton	0.1
3	95	DET	Joey Morgan	C	Washington	1.3
3	97	NYM	Quinn Brodey	RF	Stanford	0.7
3	98	BAL	Mike Baumann	RHP	Jacksonville University	0.6
3	99	TOR	Riley Adams	C	University of San Diego	0.5
3	100	LAD	Connor Wong	C	Houston	0.5
3	101	BOS	Brett Netzer	2B	UNC Charlotte	0.9
3	103	WAS	Nick Raquet	LHP	College of William & Mary	0.1
3	104	TEX	Matthew Whatley	C	Oral Roberts	0.1
3	105	CHC	Keegan Thompson	RHP	Auburn	0.3
4	106	MIN	Charlie Barnes	LHP	Clemson	0.7
4	109	TBR	Drew Strotman	RHP	St. Marys	0.1
4	111	OAK	Will Toffey	3B	Vanderbilt	1.4
4	113	PHI	Jake Scheiner	3B	U Houston	0.6
4	117	CHW	Lincoln Henzman	RHP	Louisville	0.2
4	118	PIT	Jason Delay	C	Vanderbilt	0.0
4	119	MIA	Colton Hock	RHP	Stanford	0.0
4	120	KCR	Michael Gigliotti	CF	Lipscomb University	0.6
4	121	HOU	Peter Solomon	RHP	Notre Dame	0.2
4	123	SEA	Seth Elledge	RHP	Dallas Baptist	0.1
4	124	STL	Kramer Robertson	SS	LSU	0.1
4	127	NYM	Tony Dibrell	RHP	Kennesaw State	0.4
4	129	TOR	Kevin Smith	SS	Maryland	0.3
4	131	BOS	Jake Thompson	RHP	Oregon State	0.4
4	132	CLE	Ernie Clement	2B	Virginia	1.0
4	133	WAS	Cole Freeman	2B	LSU	0.2
4	135	CHC	Erich Uelmen	RHP	Cal Poly – San Luis Obispo	1.4
5	137	CIN	Mac Sceroler	RHP	Southeastern Louisiana University	1.8
5	146	COL	Nick Kennedy	LHP	Texas	0.1
5	147	CHW	Tyler Johnson	RHP	South Carolina	0.4
5	148	PIT	Deon Stafford	C	Saint Joseph’s	0.3
5	149	MIA	Ryan Lillie	RHP	University of California – Riverside	0.6
5	152	NYY	Glenn Otto	RHP	Rice	0.1
5	153	SEA	David Banuelos	C	Cal State Long Beach	0.1
5	154	STL	Zach Kirtley	2B	St. Marys	0.3
5	156	SFG	Jason Bahr	RHP	U Central Florida	0.4
5	157	NYM	Matt Winaker	OF	Stanford	0.5
5	159	TOR	Cullen Large	2B	College of William & Mary	0.0
5	160	LAD	Riley Ottesen	RHP	Utah	0.1
5	162	CLE	Austen Wade	CF	TCU	0.2
5	163	WAS	Brigham Hill	RHP	Texas A&M	0.7
6	167	CIN	Tyler Buffett	RHP	Oklahoma State	0.4
6	168	SDP	Aaron Leasher	LHP	Morehead State	0.1
6	169	TBR	Zach Rutherford	SS	Old Dominion	0.3
6	170	ATL	Jordan Rodgers	3B	Tennessee	0.3
6	171	OAK	Logan Salow	LHP	U Kentucky	0.8
6	172	ARI	Brian Shaffer	RHP	Maryland	1.7
6	173	PHI	Dalton Guthrie	SS	Florida	0.6
6	174	MIL	Devin Hairston	SS	Louisville	0.1
6	175	LAA	Jonah Todd	CF	Auburn U	0.9
6	176	COL	Chad Spanberger	1B	Arkansas	0.1
6	177	CHW	Kade McClure	RHP	Louisville	1.2
6	179	MIA	Taylor Braley	RHP	U Southern Mississippi	0.1 (0.0 as hitter)
6	180	KCR	Tyler Zuber	RHP	Arkansas St U	0.1
6	181	HOU	Jake Adams	1B	U Iowa	0.1
6	183	SEA	Oliver Jaskie	LHP	Michigan	1.0
6	185	DET	Dane Myers	RHP	Rice	0.2 (0.2 as hitter)
6	186	SFG	Bryce Johnson	CF	Sam Houston State	0.1
6	187	NYM	Marcel Renteria	RHP	New Mexico State	0.0
6	188	BAL	Mason McCoy	SS	Iowa	0.0
6	189	TOR	Brock Lundquist	OF	Cal State Long Beach	0.0
6	190	LAD	Wills Montgomerie	RHP	Connecticut	0.2
6	192	CLE	Michael Rivera	C	Florida	0.3
6	193	WAS	Kyle Johnston	RHP	Texas	0.0
6	194	TEX	Noah Bremer	RHP	Washington	1.9
7	197	CIN	Mark Kolozsvary	C	Florida	0.3
7	198	SDP	Nick Margevicius	LHP	Rider U	0.2
7	199	TBR	Hunter Schryver	LHP	Villanova U	0.0
7	200	ATL	Landon Hughes	RHP	Georgia Southern U	0.1
7	201	OAK	Parker Dunshee	RHP	Wake Forest	0.1
7	206	COL	Lucas Gilbreath	LHP	Minnesota	0.9
7	207	CHW	Evan Skoug	C	TCU	0.0
7	208	PIT	Jared Oliva	CF	Arizona	0.1
7	209	MIA	Sean Guenther	LHP	Notre Dame	0.1
7	210	KCR	Brewer Hicklen	OF	Alabama – Birmingham	0.3
7	211	HOU	Parker Mushinski	LHP	Texas Tech	0.1
7	212	NYY	Dalton Higgins	RHP	Dallas Baptist	0.1
7	214	STL	Chase Pinder	CF	Clemson	0.2
7	215	DET	Brad Bass	RHP	Notre Dame	0.2
7	216	SFG	Logan Harasta	RHP	U Buffalo	0.5
7	217	NYM	Conner O’Neil	RHP	Cal State Northridge	0.1
7	218	BAL	Ben Breazeale	C	Wake Forest	0.0
7	219	TOR	Colton Laws	RHP	UNC Charlotte	0.2
7	220	LAD	Zachery Pop	RHP	Kentucky	0.1
7	222	CLE	Kirk McCarty	LHP	Southern Mississippi	0.3
7	225	CHC	Ricky Tyler Thomas	LHP	Fresno State	0.7
8	226	MIN	Bryan Sammons	LHP	Western Carolina U	0.4
8	231	OAK	Brian Howard	RHP	TCU	2.5
8	232	ARI	Tim Susnara	C	Oregon	0.6
8	234	MIL	Jayson Rose	RHP	Utah	0.3
8	236	COL	Bret Boswell	2B	Texas	0.0
8	238	PIT	Blake Weiman	LHP	U Kansas	0.5
8	239	MIA	Jared Barnes	C	University of South Alabama	0.0
8	241	HOU	Corey Julks	CF	Houston	0.5
8	242	NYY	Kyle Zurak	RHP	Radford U	0.1
8	243	SEA	Billy Cooke	CF	Coastal Carolina U	0.0
8	246	SFG	John Gavin	LHP	Cal State Fullerton	1.2
8	248	BAL	Jimmy Murphy	RHP	Fordham U	0.1
8	249	TOR	Kacy Clemens	1B	U Texas Austin	0.0
8	250	LAD	Rylan Bannon	3B	Xavier U	0.1
8	251	BOS	Zach Sterry	1B	Oakland U	0.0
8	252	CLE	Eli Morgan	RHP	Gonzaga	1.2
8	253	WAS	Jared Brasher	RHP	Samford University	0.1
9	256	MIN	Mark Contreras	OF	UC Riverside	0.0
9	257	CIN	Packy Naughton	LHP	Virginia Tech	0.0
9	258	SDP	Alex Cunningham	RHP	Coastal Carolina	0.3
9	259	TBR	Andrew Gist	LHP	U Georgia	0.1
9	260	ATL	Riley Delgado	SS	Middle Tennessee St U	0.0
9	261	OAK	Jared Poche	LHP	LSU	0.0
9	262	ARI	Camden Duzenack	SS	Dallas Baptist	0.0
9	263	PHI	Jack Zoellner	3B	U New Mexico	0.0
9	264	MIL	Dallas Carroll	3B	U Utah	0.3
9	265	LAA	Brett Hanewich	RHP	Stanford	0.1
9	266	COL	Sean Bouchard	1B	UCLA	0.4
9	267	CHW	Craig Dedelow	OF	Indiana	0.0
9	270	KCR	JC Cloney	LHP	Arizona	0.2
9	271	HOU	Michael Papierski	C	LSU	0.8
9	272	NYY	Austin Gardner	RHP	U Texas Arlington	0.0
9	274	STL	Evan Kruczynski	LHP	East Carolina	0.0
9	275	DET	Luke Burch	CF	Kent St U	0.0
9	276	SFG	Aaron Phillips	RHP	St Bonaventure U	0.5
9	277	NYM	Cannon Chadwick	RHP	U Arkansas Fayetteville	0.1
9	278	BAL	T.J. Nichting	OF	UNC Charlotte	0.1
9	279	TOR	Zach Logue	LHP	Kentucky	0.2
9	280	LAD	Connor Strain	RHP	Evansville	0.0
9	282	CLE	James Karinchak	RHP	Bryant University	0.4
9	283	WAS	Alex Troop	LHP	Michigan State	0.6 (0.1 as hitter)
9	284	TEX	Tanner Gardner	OF	Texas Tech	0.7
9	285	CHC	Chris Carrier	OF	U Memphis	0.0
10	286	MIN	Calvin Faucher	RHP	University of California – Irvine	0.2
10	287	CIN	Robby Howell	RHP	Central Florida	0.0
10	288	SDP	Dominic Taccolini	RHP	Arkansas	0.0
10	289	TBR	Phoenix Sanders	RHP	U South Florida	0.1
10	291	OAK	Jack Meggs	OF	Washington	0.0
10	292	ARI	Ryan Grotjohn	SS	Cal St Bakersfield	0.0
10	294	MIL	Alec Bettinger	RHP	Virginia	0.2
10	295	LAA	Daniel Procopio	RHP	Niagara	0.2
10	297	CHW	JB Olson	RHP	U Oklahoma	0.1
10	298	PIT	Beau Sulser	RHP	Dartmouth Col	0.0
10	299	MIA	Denis Karas	3B	California	0.1
10	300	KCR	Jordan Floyd	LHP	Kansas St U	0.0
10	302	NYY	Chad Whitmer	RHP	Southern Illinois U Carbondale	0.4
10	303	SEA	Randy Bell	RHP	University of South Alabama	0.1
10	304	STL	Brett Seeburger	LHP	San Diego State	0.2
10	305	DET	Garrett McCain	CF	Oklahoma State	0.4
10	306	SFG	Rob Calabrese	C	U Illinois Chicago	0.0
10	307	NYM	Stephen Villines	RHP	U Kansas	0.1
10	309	TOR	Justin Dillon	RHP	Cal St Sacramento	0.1
10	310	LAD	Zach Reks	OF	U Kentucky	0.3
10	311	BOS	Jordan Wren	OF	Georgia Southern	0.0
10	312	CLE	Jesse Berardi	SS	St. John’s	0.1
10	314	TEX	John King	LHP	U Houston	0.0
10	315	CHC	Brian Glowicki	RHP	Minnesota	0.1

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DKH

7 years ago

Thank you for the list. From your table, Clement was draft by Cleveland (your commentary lists Virginia for the team). With that in mind, Oakland and Cleveland each have two players from the top 8 hitters/top 8 pitchers.

Maybe you’ve shown this in other articles and I’ve missed it, but it might be more interesting to publish the probability KATOH gives for the player to appear in MLB, and maybe the player’s 95th %ile WAR through age 28 (or some high enough %ile to give a meaningful number and represent the player’s ceiling).

I think at this stage, fans are trying to answer two questions: how likely am I to see this player with the major league team? And how good could the player be? I think it’s tough to translate the point estimate you’re presenting (which I’m assuming is in some sense an average) into an answer to those questions.