Projecting the College Players Taken on Day Two of the Draft

Yesterday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Between then and now, an additional 240 players have been selected. Eric Longenhagen considered some notable selections this morning from both the American and National leagues. Let’s take a look at what my math says about some of those players.

Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-eight hitters and top-eight pitchers selected in rounds 3-10. Below that, you’ll find by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.

Brian Howard, RHP, Oakland, 2.5 WAR

A senior out of TCU, nothing about Howard’s 2017 performance jumps off the page. He’s been quietly effective over his college career, however, allowing just 10 homers in over 250 innings and posting a 3.52 ERA. KATOH penalizes him for already having turned 22, but loves his 6-foot-9 build. Just a tall pitcher with a strong body of work in a good conference.

Connor Seabold, RHP, Philadelphia, 2.2 WAR

Seabold has been a top Big West pitcher each of the past three years, racking up 292 strikeouts in 275 innings while walking just 42. His numbers ticked down a bit from his excellent sophomore year, but he was still extremely effective.

Trevor Stephan, RHP, New York (AL), 2.1 WAR

The right-handed Stephan put up big strikeout numbers in the SEC this year, trailing only Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, and Kyle Wright, all of whom were no-doubt first rounders. He was a JuCo reliever before this year, so he doesn’t have much of a track record. But he was one of the best starters in one of the best conferences this spring.

KJ Harrison, C/1B, Milwaukee, 1.9 WAR

Harrison’s numbers plateaued this past season, but he’s now put together three strong seasons in a row. He doesn’t tip the scales in any one particular area offensively, but offers a bit of everything: good contact numbers, power, walks, and even a touch of speed. Throw in that he’s aged somewhat like sophomore (turns 21 in August) and KATOH’s on board. My projection assumes he’s a first baseman, since that’s where he played almost exclusively in college. If he’s able to stick at catcher, he could be quite the player.

Noah Bremer, RHP, Texas, 1.9 WAR

Bremer pitched well as a swingman for Washington this year. His strikeout and walk numbers have never been elite, and were actually underwhelming when he started as a freshman and sophomore, but his 6-foot-5 frame and three years of solid work in the Pac-12 caught KATOH’s eye.

Mac Sceroler, RHP, Cincinnati, 1.8 WAR

Sceroler was rock solid this spring for Southeast Louisiana, leading the Southland Conference in strikeouts. He’s pitched well since his freshman year but has gotten progressively better each season. He’s aged like a senior, which gives KATOH pause, but his performance has been great.

Brian Shaffer, RHP, Arizona, 1.7 WAR

A 6-foot-5 righty from Maryland, Shaffer walked just 40 batters in his 273 college innings. His strikeout numbers have been more good than great, but he’s still managed to be a top performer in the Big 10 for two years running. He also doesn’t turn 21 until August, so he’s aged kind of like a sophomore.

Erich Uelmen, RHP, Chicago (NL), 1.4 WAR

Uelmen was one of the top hitters in the Big West this spring, striking out over a batter per inning and allowing just one homer in 15 starts. He also pitched well his sophomore year at Cal Poly and last summer on the Cape. He just turned him 21, making him young-ish for a college junior.

Will Toffey, 3B, Oakland, 1.4 WAR

Toffey’s appeal is built almost entirely around his ability to control the strike zone. He racked up 48 walks last year while only striking out 30 times, yielding an impressive .354/.475/.602 slash line. He also played well on the Cape last summer. He’s a bit on the old side, as he’ll be one of only a few players drafted with a 1994 birthday. How crazy is it that someone born in 1994 is “old”?

Joey Morgan, C, Washington, 1.3 WAR

Morgan’s numbers have gotten progressively better over his three seasons at Washington, as he’s gone from hitting .215/.318/.323 as a freshman to .324/.427/.500 this year. He’s now a very good offensive catcher who provides plenty of doubles and walks. He’s also on the young side, as he doesn’t turn 21 until September.

Eli Morgan, RHP Cleveland, 1.2 WAR

Morgan struck out a ton of batters at Gonzaga this spring, leading the West Coast Conference with 138. He was solid his sophomore year, as well, but really impressed on the Cape last summer. At 5-foot-10, he’s rather short for a pitching prospect, but his recent performance over the past year has been great.

Ernie Clement, 2B, Cleveland, 1.0 WAR

After a strong sophomore campaign, Clement really started making noise last summer by hitting .353/.400/.395 on the Cape with a league-leading 19 steals. He underwhelmed this year, however, by hitting an empty .315. Clement makes an obscene amount of contact — he struck out just seven times in nearly 300 plate appearances — but he walks almost as infrequently and is completely devoid of power right now.

Jonah Todd, OF, Los Angeles (AL), 0.9 WAR

Although he didn’t hit any homers last season at Auburn, Todd still looks promising due to his extreme contact abilities. He hit .376/.460/.471 on the strength of a 10% strikeout rate. He also flashed some speed, lacing five triples and swiping nine bases.

Brett Netzer, 2B, Boston, 0.9 WAR

Netzer hit a strong .342/.425/.509 as a junior this year at UNC Charlotte, driven by his sub-10% strikeout rate. He played in Conference USA, which means he faced weaker competition than many of his peers. But he performed on the Cape last summer and has three years of solid college numbers under his belt.

Taylor Walls, SS, Tampa, 0.9 WAR

Walls’ strength is controlling the strike zone. He walked 63 times in 65 games this year while striking out just 43 times. He performed similarly last season, when he also hit for doubles power. He’s held his own offensively in the ACC, while also playing shortstop, which makes for an encouraging overall package.

Mike Papierski, C, Houston, 0.8 WAR

Papierski’s bat hasn’t taken off in college, as he finished up with a .258/.409/.450 batting line this year. He walked plenty, but didn’t hit for power and struck out rather often for a guy with only middling power. Still, he’s a catcher from a top conference who’s shown promise with the bat.


College Players Drafted in Round 3-10
Round Pick Organization Name Pos School KATOH
3 79 TBR Taylor Walls SS Florida State 0.9
3 83 PHI Connor Seabold RHP Cal State Fullerton 2.2
3 84 MIL KJ Harrison C Oregon State 1.9
3 86 COL Will Gaddis RHP Furman University 0.0
3 87 CHW Luis Gonzalez CF New Mexico 0.1
3 88 PIT Dylan Busby 3B Florida State 0.6
3 89 MIA Riley Mahan 2B Kentucky 0.7
3 92 NYY Trevor Stephan RHP Arkansas 2.1
3 93 SEA Wyatt Mills RHP Gonzaga 0.2
3 94 STL Scott Hurst CF Cal State Fullerton 0.1
3 95 DET Joey Morgan C Washington 1.3
3 97 NYM Quinn Brodey RF Stanford 0.7
3 98 BAL Mike Baumann RHP Jacksonville University 0.6
3 99 TOR Riley Adams C University of San Diego 0.5
3 100 LAD Connor Wong C Houston 0.5
3 101 BOS Brett Netzer 2B UNC Charlotte 0.9
3 103 WAS Nick Raquet LHP College of William & Mary 0.1
3 104 TEX Matthew Whatley C Oral Roberts 0.1
3 105 CHC Keegan Thompson RHP Auburn 0.3
4 106 MIN Charlie Barnes LHP Clemson 0.7
4 109 TBR Drew Strotman RHP St. Marys 0.1
4 111 OAK Will Toffey 3B Vanderbilt 1.4
4 113 PHI Jake Scheiner 3B U Houston 0.6
4 117 CHW Lincoln Henzman RHP Louisville 0.2
4 118 PIT Jason Delay C Vanderbilt 0.0
4 119 MIA Colton Hock RHP Stanford 0.0
4 120 KCR Michael Gigliotti CF Lipscomb University 0.6
4 121 HOU Peter Solomon RHP Notre Dame 0.2
4 123 SEA Seth Elledge RHP Dallas Baptist 0.1
4 124 STL Kramer Robertson SS LSU 0.1
4 127 NYM Tony Dibrell RHP Kennesaw State 0.4
4 129 TOR Kevin Smith SS Maryland 0.3
4 131 BOS Jake Thompson RHP Oregon State 0.4
4 132 CLE Ernie Clement 2B Virginia 1.0
4 133 WAS Cole Freeman 2B LSU 0.2
4 135 CHC Erich Uelmen RHP Cal Poly – San Luis Obispo 1.4
5 137 CIN Mac Sceroler RHP Southeastern Louisiana University 1.8
5 146 COL Nick Kennedy LHP Texas 0.1
5 147 CHW Tyler Johnson RHP South Carolina 0.4
5 148 PIT Deon Stafford C Saint Joseph’s 0.3
5 149 MIA Ryan Lillie RHP University of California – Riverside 0.6
5 152 NYY Glenn Otto RHP Rice 0.1
5 153 SEA David Banuelos C Cal State Long Beach 0.1
5 154 STL Zach Kirtley 2B St. Marys 0.3
5 156 SFG Jason Bahr RHP U Central Florida 0.4
5 157 NYM Matt Winaker OF Stanford 0.5
5 159 TOR Cullen Large 2B College of William & Mary 0.0
5 160 LAD Riley Ottesen RHP Utah 0.1
5 162 CLE Austen Wade CF TCU 0.2
5 163 WAS Brigham Hill RHP Texas A&M 0.7
6 167 CIN Tyler Buffett RHP Oklahoma State 0.4
6 168 SDP Aaron Leasher LHP Morehead State 0.1
6 169 TBR Zach Rutherford SS Old Dominion 0.3
6 170 ATL Jordan Rodgers 3B Tennessee 0.3
6 171 OAK Logan Salow LHP U Kentucky 0.8
6 172 ARI Brian Shaffer RHP Maryland 1.7
6 173 PHI Dalton Guthrie SS Florida 0.6
6 174 MIL Devin Hairston SS Louisville 0.1
6 175 LAA Jonah Todd CF Auburn U 0.9
6 176 COL Chad Spanberger 1B Arkansas 0.1
6 177 CHW Kade McClure RHP Louisville 1.2
6 179 MIA Taylor Braley RHP U Southern Mississippi 0.1 (0.0 as hitter)
6 180 KCR Tyler Zuber RHP Arkansas St U 0.1
6 181 HOU Jake Adams 1B U Iowa 0.1
6 183 SEA Oliver Jaskie LHP Michigan 1.0
6 185 DET Dane Myers RHP Rice 0.2 (0.2 as hitter)
6 186 SFG Bryce Johnson CF Sam Houston State 0.1
6 187 NYM Marcel Renteria RHP New Mexico State 0.0
6 188 BAL Mason McCoy SS Iowa 0.0
6 189 TOR Brock Lundquist OF Cal State Long Beach 0.0
6 190 LAD Wills Montgomerie RHP Connecticut 0.2
6 192 CLE Michael Rivera C Florida 0.3
6 193 WAS Kyle Johnston RHP Texas 0.0
6 194 TEX Noah Bremer RHP Washington 1.9
7 197 CIN Mark Kolozsvary C Florida 0.3
7 198 SDP Nick Margevicius LHP Rider U 0.2
7 199 TBR Hunter Schryver LHP Villanova U 0.0
7 200 ATL Landon Hughes RHP Georgia Southern U 0.1
7 201 OAK Parker Dunshee RHP Wake Forest 0.1
7 206 COL Lucas Gilbreath LHP Minnesota 0.9
7 207 CHW Evan Skoug C TCU 0.0
7 208 PIT Jared Oliva CF Arizona 0.1
7 209 MIA Sean Guenther LHP Notre Dame 0.1
7 210 KCR Brewer Hicklen OF Alabama – Birmingham 0.3
7 211 HOU Parker Mushinski LHP Texas Tech 0.1
7 212 NYY Dalton Higgins RHP Dallas Baptist 0.1
7 214 STL Chase Pinder CF Clemson 0.2
7 215 DET Brad Bass RHP Notre Dame 0.2
7 216 SFG Logan Harasta RHP U Buffalo 0.5
7 217 NYM Conner O’Neil RHP Cal State Northridge 0.1
7 218 BAL Ben Breazeale C Wake Forest 0.0
7 219 TOR Colton Laws RHP UNC Charlotte 0.2
7 220 LAD Zachery Pop RHP Kentucky 0.1
7 222 CLE Kirk McCarty LHP Southern Mississippi 0.3
7 225 CHC Ricky Tyler Thomas LHP Fresno State 0.7
8 226 MIN Bryan Sammons LHP Western Carolina U 0.4
8 231 OAK Brian Howard RHP TCU 2.5
8 232 ARI Tim Susnara C Oregon 0.6
8 234 MIL Jayson Rose RHP Utah 0.3
8 236 COL Bret Boswell 2B Texas 0.0
8 238 PIT Blake Weiman LHP U Kansas 0.5
8 239 MIA Jared Barnes C University of South Alabama 0.0
8 241 HOU Corey Julks CF Houston 0.5
8 242 NYY Kyle Zurak RHP Radford U 0.1
8 243 SEA Billy Cooke CF Coastal Carolina U 0.0
8 246 SFG John Gavin LHP Cal State Fullerton 1.2
8 248 BAL Jimmy Murphy RHP Fordham U 0.1
8 249 TOR Kacy Clemens 1B U Texas Austin 0.0
8 250 LAD Rylan Bannon 3B Xavier U 0.1
8 251 BOS Zach Sterry 1B Oakland U 0.0
8 252 CLE Eli Morgan RHP Gonzaga 1.2
8 253 WAS Jared Brasher RHP Samford University 0.1
9 256 MIN Mark Contreras OF UC Riverside 0.0
9 257 CIN Packy Naughton LHP Virginia Tech 0.0
9 258 SDP Alex Cunningham RHP Coastal Carolina 0.3
9 259 TBR Andrew Gist LHP U Georgia 0.1
9 260 ATL Riley Delgado SS Middle Tennessee St U 0.0
9 261 OAK Jared Poche LHP LSU 0.0
9 262 ARI Camden Duzenack SS Dallas Baptist 0.0
9 263 PHI Jack Zoellner 3B U New Mexico 0.0
9 264 MIL Dallas Carroll 3B U Utah 0.3
9 265 LAA Brett Hanewich RHP Stanford 0.1
9 266 COL Sean Bouchard 1B UCLA 0.4
9 267 CHW Craig Dedelow OF Indiana 0.0
9 270 KCR JC Cloney LHP Arizona 0.2
9 271 HOU Michael Papierski C LSU 0.8
9 272 NYY Austin Gardner RHP U Texas Arlington 0.0
9 274 STL Evan Kruczynski LHP East Carolina 0.0
9 275 DET Luke Burch CF Kent St U 0.0
9 276 SFG Aaron Phillips RHP St Bonaventure U 0.5
9 277 NYM Cannon Chadwick RHP U Arkansas Fayetteville 0.1
9 278 BAL T.J. Nichting OF UNC Charlotte 0.1
9 279 TOR Zach Logue LHP Kentucky 0.2
9 280 LAD Connor Strain RHP Evansville 0.0
9 282 CLE James Karinchak RHP Bryant University 0.4
9 283 WAS Alex Troop LHP Michigan State 0.6 (0.1 as hitter)
9 284 TEX Tanner Gardner OF Texas Tech 0.7
9 285 CHC Chris Carrier OF U Memphis 0.0
10 286 MIN Calvin Faucher RHP University of California – Irvine 0.2
10 287 CIN Robby Howell RHP Central Florida 0.0
10 288 SDP Dominic Taccolini RHP Arkansas 0.0
10 289 TBR Phoenix Sanders RHP U South Florida 0.1
10 291 OAK Jack Meggs OF Washington 0.0
10 292 ARI Ryan Grotjohn SS Cal St Bakersfield 0.0
10 294 MIL Alec Bettinger RHP Virginia 0.2
10 295 LAA Daniel Procopio RHP Niagara 0.2
10 297 CHW JB Olson RHP U Oklahoma 0.1
10 298 PIT Beau Sulser RHP Dartmouth Col 0.0
10 299 MIA Denis Karas 3B California 0.1
10 300 KCR Jordan Floyd LHP Kansas St U 0.0
10 302 NYY Chad Whitmer RHP Southern Illinois U Carbondale 0.4
10 303 SEA Randy Bell RHP University of South Alabama 0.1
10 304 STL Brett Seeburger LHP San Diego State 0.2
10 305 DET Garrett McCain CF Oklahoma State 0.4
10 306 SFG Rob Calabrese C U Illinois Chicago 0.0
10 307 NYM Stephen Villines RHP U Kansas 0.1
10 309 TOR Justin Dillon RHP Cal St Sacramento 0.1
10 310 LAD Zach Reks OF U Kentucky 0.3
10 311 BOS Jordan Wren OF Georgia Southern 0.0
10 312 CLE Jesse Berardi SS St. John’s 0.1
10 314 TEX John King LHP U Houston 0.0
10 315 CHC Brian Glowicki RHP Minnesota 0.1

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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6 years ago

Thank you for the list. From your table, Clement was draft by Cleveland (your commentary lists Virginia for the team). With that in mind, Oakland and Cleveland each have two players from the top 8 hitters/top 8 pitchers.

Maybe you’ve shown this in other articles and I’ve missed it, but it might be more interesting to publish the probability KATOH gives for the player to appear in MLB, and maybe the player’s 95th %ile WAR through age 28 (or some high enough %ile to give a meaningful number and represent the player’s ceiling).

I think at this stage, fans are trying to answer two questions: how likely am I to see this player with the major league team? And how good could the player be? I think it’s tough to translate the point estimate you’re presenting (which I’m assuming is in some sense an average) into an answer to those questions.