Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/14/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: With the draft almost in the rear view mirror, the summer trade season is about to get started.

Dave Cameron: Should be an interesting six weeks leading up to the deadline.

ChiSox: Do you see STL, PIT, MIL going for it at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: STL yes, PIT and MIL no.

Grate: How does draft pick compensation work now? Do you think the Reds would be better off trading Cozart or getting compensation for losing him this offseason?

Dave Cameron: You can still make a qualifying offer, but what kind of pick you receive is based on the player’s total contract, whether you’re over the luxury tax or not, and whether you pay or receive revenue sharing. In the Reds situation, the last two factors don’t really impact them, but Cozart probably isn’t cracking $50 million this winter, which is what he would need to get for the Reds to get a 1st round pick. A trade makes the most sense.

Cody: People keep saying the Brewers will be sellers at the deadline. Who will they sell? Braun is almost un-tradable, Travis Shaw is only 27, Thames’ contract makes him too valuable to trade right now, and the bullpen sucks so they can’t trade from there. Junior Guerra?

Dave Cameron: Matt Garza probably goes.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, they’re probably more of a hold team than a sell team.

Justin : Hey Dave I hope I get the question to go through this time. More of an NBA and college fan but in a wannabe baseball analytic guy just not there yet. The question is how does a team like say the padres, who I heard on mlb network had passed all these great players, rebuild in a draft like say an NFL team or NBA team? How long is the usual timeline for a staff to rebuild and contend. I understand it’s going to vary based on the minor leagues and things just curious about the process. Please and thanks in advance!

Dave Cameron: You can’t really just rebuild through the draft in MLB. The failure rate of draft picks is too high. You have to sign international guys (which SD did very aggressively last year), make trades and small free agent signings that land you guys with upside, and draft well. It’s not just one thing.

The Average Sports Fan: 64 games in, and the Cubs sit at 32-32. A lot of talk about their rotation, but in reality they have not hit. Any easy solutions?

Dave Cameron: Patience might not be easy, but it is the solution.

primantis: Will the average fastball velocity top 100 mph within the next 10 years?

Dave Cameron: We’re at ~92-93 now, so no. Eventually, maybe, if the league doesn’t do something to intervene, but we’re not that close to 100 mph average velo.

The Average Sports Fan: Dusty Baker seems a little upset with his bullpen situation. What do you think they do?

Dave Cameron: They’re clearly going to trade for a closer. Kelvin Herrera and David Robertson most often rumored. Ryan Madson could be a short-term fix if they want someone sooner than later.

Eduardo: Is there any logical reason for the Mets to continue to keep Rosario down, especially now that Cabrera is hurt?

Dave Cameron: When you’re starting Jose Reyes, the bar to clear is so low that you can’t really argue that Rosario wouldn’t be better. But I do think his expected production is probably being overstated. Steamer projects him for a 76 wRC+ right now. His numbers aren’t that great for being in Vegas. Obviously a lot of upside, but idea that he’s ready to come up and hit big league pitching right now isn’t so sure.

Dave Cameron: Jose Reyes also can’t hit big league pitching, though.

Al: Is CarGo broken? Could he be in the Heyward/McCutchen camp of ”healthy but swing is off”? Feel like his track record of ups/downs should actually make Rockies fans feel better?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s more in the always-been-overrated camp. He’s an aging player with flaws who looks like he’s in decline.

Matt: Dave, thanks so much for your work. I’m about to subscribe, as I’ve been freeloading for years. What sense of urgency should Cubs have , in terms of addressing the SP? With Lackey’s free fall, there are beginning to be negative knock-on effects with the pen.

Dave Cameron: They clearly need another starter.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that they have to make a move for an ace, since Lester/Arrieta still pretty good, but they need depth.

Dave Cameron: Jason Vargas could be a nice fit for them.

JTT: Vlad Guerrero JR was born in Canada, why was he not draft eligible?

Dave Cameron: He was raised at his brother’s academy in the D.R.

Hannah Hochevar: Read the O’s Pitching piece with interest. Do you think the new pitching coach has been a factor (changing pitch selection or arm slot stuff?) or is he just a bystander to the ineptitude? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Don’t think there’s much he could have done about Tillman getting hurt or bad pitchers being bad. Gausman is the one you could maybe say there’s a development problem, but no real evidence to link that to pitching coach.

Benjamin Wittes: Yankees trade Gardner to get rid of the logjam during the season and capitalize on his newfound power, or they roll with the 4 OF’s till after the season?

Dave Cameron: No reason to make the team worse when you’re in first place.

Erica: Orioles finally going to tear it down? And if so do they go all the way and unload Machado?

Dave Cameron: They’re at .500 with lots of guys underachieving. I don’t see them selling unless the next month goes really poorly. Easy to talk yourself into “once Machado hits, and we get Britton back, and Gausman gets straightened out…”

Jake: I was thinking about how the hard salary cap in the NBA hurts parity, by forcing players to prioritize non-salary opportunities in big markets/championship odds. Can you think of any MLB parity mechanisms that backfire similarly?

Dave Cameron: Compensation picks for losing free agents. The teams that have players good enough to get a QO are generally high-revenue clubs who can afford to let a guy like that get to FA instead of trading him first. The Yankees got Aaron Judge’s pick as compensation for letting Nick Swisher leave, for instance.

Ryan: I love the PitchTalk events. How do the panelists perceive them? Are they enjoyable, or more of a chore?

Dave Cameron: They’re definitely enjoyable. Always a fun time.

David: Who would you guess the Cubs and Astros will target?

Dave Cameron: Astros still most likely Quintana buyer. Cubs probably more look for cheaper back-end guy unless Darvish becomes available.

Charlie: Thanks for the chat. Is a Jose Quintana for Corey Ray swap reasonable? The Brewers get a starter they can afford long term (assuming he turns it around) and the Sox get a guy who not only makes baseball sense, but is the most famous graduate of their ace program, so I’m sure there’s a lot of desire to add him. Or am I being too romantic?

Dave Cameron: Quintana is worth a lot more than just Ray.

Reginald Denton III: Do you think Judge will surpass Stanton as MLB’s premier power hitter over the next few years? At what point will pitchers start pitching around him more? It doesn’t seem like it’s happening yet.

Dave Cameron: Decent argument he already has.

Dave Cameron: Stanton isn’t hitting the ball as hard as he used to, as he’s trying to make more contact now.

Roadhog: Red Sox need Jed Lowrie, no?

Dave Cameron: Could see him as a fit at 3B if they decide Devers isn’t ready.

Dave Cameron: But I’d just give Devers a look first.

Moltar: Just noticed the addition of the time stamp to the main page. Thank you for taking into account reader feedback. Happy to support a website that values its customers!

Dave Cameron: We appreciate the responses to the re-design. Our goal is always to make the site as good as it can be, and it was something that you guys clearly missed, so I’m happy Sean was able to bring it back.

Charlie: Assuming they don’t trade Duda, should the Mets A. Offer him a QO B. Re-sign him or C. Let him Walk?

Dave Cameron: He’s not a $17M per year guy.

Dave Cameron: I’d offer him 2/$20M or something but if he wants more than that, I’d pass.

Kid: How close are we to your idealized version of baseball in terms of game length, offense vs. defense balance, strike zone, etc?

Dave Cameron: Not very close. I’d prefer much more contact and less time between pitches.

Eduardo: Everyone keeps saying the Yankees are going to trade for a starting pitcher, but I can’t see them giving up Torres. Frazier seems like he’ll be wearing another uniform in 6 weeks, right? Which pitcher could he be in a trade for?

Dave Cameron: I could see them winning the Sonny Gray bidding war. Under control for several years, young enough to fit into the core.

Harold: Can the White Sox still get a good return for Quintana, or should they wait until the offseason or next trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: They can still get a good return. Just not what they were asking for over the winter.

David: Loved Eric’s live draft stream.

Dave Cameron: Eric and Chris did a great job with draft coverage. I know it’s not necessarily what we’re known for, but they crushed it.

Porcho Villa: What’s your sense on how the LAD rotation shakes out? Does Maeda get his spot back? Should Hill lose his given the control issues and inability to go more than 4-5 innings?

Dave Cameron: They’ll just piece together 7-8 guys all year, rotating to keep everyone’s innings down. In the playoffs, I bet it’s Kershaw/Wood/Hill/Maeda, with maybe Urias swapping out for Hill if his command doesn’t improve.

Brendon: What was the result of your leg injury? Are you getting surgery?

Dave Cameron: Torn ACL and meniscus. Surgery next Thursday. Good news for you guys is that I’ll be unable to walk for most of July, so should have plenty of time to write.

Lou: Better future, Judge or Bellinger?

Dave Cameron: Judge

Andy: Could Judge’s performance impact the Yankees’ pursuit of Harper? Why pay Harper $500 million when you already get similar production out of a guy on his rookie contract? Conversely, if this is Judge’s team by 2019, will Harper be okay with a supporting role, the way A-Rod deferred to Jeter?

Dave Cameron: Why only have one really good player when you can have two?

Dave Cameron: It’s not an either/or.

Terence: If the Astros decide to target a SP at the deadline, do you think they’d make a modest, short-term addition (e.g., Marcus Estrada), or go for a long-term option (e.g., Quintana or Archer) to try to address Keuchel’s departure in free agency after 2018?

Dave Cameron: They’ve got the chips to make a big move.

Dave Cameron: Depends on price, probably, but easier to see them making the blockbuster than anyone else.

Frankie: Should/ Could the M’s make a play for Quintana? It seems like, with their offense and window, adding a good SP would yield the most benefits.

Dave Cameron: They don’t have the prospects to get him.

Booger: NBA is a soft cap… NHL is a hard cap.

Dave Cameron: NBA has a hard-cap on player salaries, not team payrolls. The max contract means that NBA stars end up picking teams based on non-monetary factors, and so you end up with very underpaid superstars clumping together to give each other best chance to win.

Anon: What’s the most common non-fantasy question you don’t answer?

Dave Cameron: Nick Markakis questions.

Skuggs: One of my gripes with the way that some people use Steamer/projections is that they use it with equal force to say “X Player who has 5,000 MLB PAs is projected for Y” and “X Player who has never seen an MLB pitch is projected for Z”. Has there been work done on Steamer/projections’ accuracy with respect to minor leaguers compared with veterans?

Dave Cameron: Any forecast is going to have wider variance with less data, so projections are inherently less accurate for young players. That said, baselining off the projections is still a lot better than people’s confirmation-bias-enthusiasm.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You have suggested that you do not care about Carson’s lawn projects in the least. On a 20-80 scale, how much do you *actually* care about Carson’s landscaping issues and how they relate to baseball?

Dave Cameron: 15

Chaps: re. Astros on Quintana: Quintana’s gotten significantly worse (unless his underlying stats say otherwise; haven’t had the chance to look at them), and Lunhow’s said he wants a left-handed reliever. Would it make more sense for them to try and trade for Cole & Watson, or is that price way too steep?

Dave Cameron: If you’re backing away from Quintana because of 2017 performance, you shouldn’t be interested in Watson.

Tim: Re: Astros Blockbuster–are the Astros confident enough in Marwin Gonzalez as a 3B option that Bregman could be a potential chip in such a deal?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it.

OH GOD MY PITCHING IT HURTS: Derek Fisher was called up. Any chance he can stick for the Astros this year? Is Aoki done?

Dave Cameron: He could stick if he gets hot. Beltran isn’t looking so spry either. Everyone talks about HOU’s pitching but their offense is a bat or two short.

Nate: rank the value of Darvich (pending FA), Gray, and Quintana for trade purposes, please

Dave Cameron: Gray/Quintana close, maybe slight edge to Gray right now. Big gap between them and Darvish.

Justin Verlander: Will I finish the year with the Tigers?

Dave Cameron: Not pitching very well and you’re super expensive. Unless Tigers decide to dump everyone, don’t see you moving.

Anon: What about Cueto? No one seems to be mentioning his name but the Giants should definitely be selling now at 26-40.

Dave Cameron: I do think he gets traded, but return will be less than SFG would hope, given the opt-out.

Dave Cameron: Lots of risk for a team there.

Jimbo McGee: What limiting factors keep baseball teams from tanking as hard as basketball teams?

Dave Cameron: Draft picks aren’t worth nearly as much in MLB as they are in the NBA.

ATCQ: Could Darvish be available for a package with a back-end top-100 prospect as the headliner? Or will there need to be a top-50 type guy?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if Darvish is on the block, not getting him at a discount.

Dave Cameron: Rangers would probably ask for something like the Chapman package from last summer.

Jon: Could a team negotiate something with SF regarding Cueto?Like if he suffers an injury and opts in there will be a PTBNL.

Dave Cameron: Sure, but SF isn’t going to be super motivated to agree to give up something super valuable if Cueto gets hurt while out of their control.

Sean: The projections have the Rockies and Dbacks as ~.500 teams RoS. Are you buying the over?

Dave Cameron: There’s a bunch of regression coming for both teams. I actually like AZ more than COL right now, actually.

Anon: Even if Cueto opts in, 4/84 isn’t outrageous, is it?

Dave Cameron: If he opts in, it’s probably because he got hurt.

Dave Cameron: And then you’re paying for rehab.

Booger: If Darvish is available, but costs the same as Chapman did last year, do you really see the Cubs spending huge for a rental again? I can see them paying the price for a cost controlled starter, but not another rental.

Dave Cameron: They still have more hitters than spots to play them.

Dave Cameron: And as Hoyer said recently, you only get so many shots at a WS title.

Anon: Is there any merit to a team signing a free agent they don’t need to a market rate contract, then trading him and paying most of his salary in exchange for prospects. Kinda like what the Yankees did with trading Brian McCann last offseason.

Dave Cameron: Can’t really do sign-and-trades in MLB.

Dave Cameron: Can do sign, hold for a while, and trade six months later, but that’s risky.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Dave, we [the readers] appreciate these chats. But where do you stand on them? Are they an inconvenience [another Nick Markakis question?!] or do you ever glean anything interesting or worthwhile to possibly be written about later?

Dave Cameron: They’re enjoyable, mostly. Good data gathering to find out what people want to talk about, so a lot of articles come out of chat questions.

Legeisc: For players like Cueto with right to opt out/in, I assume teams have insurance policies to mitigate the risk. Is this correct? I would assume a team acquiring Cueto could get a short-term insurance policy and have that factored into prospect cost.

Dave Cameron: Insurance policies on contracts are super expensive. Some teams get them, some don’t.

Dave Cameron: And often guys with a history of arm problems (like Cueto) can’t get blanket insurance. So you might be able to insure against him breaking his leg, but not him getting Tommy John.

Jack: If your Rick Hahn, do you trade Kahnle?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely

Matt: I’ve heard it asked before and found it intriguing – does the CBA allow for conditional trades? For example, trade Price with the qualifier that if he doesn’t opt out, he goes back to the Sox (not that they’d be trading…just an example).

Dave Cameron: No. You can’t agree to future transactions that aren’t directly laid out in the deal at the time.

Snarfle: How good is Chase Anderson?

Dave Cameron: Solid back-end guy. Don’t think this recent run is a new level.

Snarfle: Can the Rays stick around? Surprised to learn they are currently in the second WC spot.

Dave Cameron: Kiermaier loss hurts. Would think that they’re good enough to hang in race, but not sure i want to bet on offense carried by Dickerson/Morrison.

HappyFunBall: As I understand it, most contract insurance is about catastrophic inability to perform. You can insure a guy against never pitching again, but if he’s hurt and continues to rehab or plays at a lower level you’re just out of luck.

Dave Cameron: That’s somewhat true. The Mets are getting insurance to cover David Wright’s salary this year, I believe, but it phases out if he comes back and plays some percentage of games.

Dave Cameron: You do get coverage if a guy is rehabbing, I believe, but never makes it back.

AK: I thought that PTBNL-based deals are often conditional, based on the performance of other players in the deal, or am I misremembering?

Dave Cameron: Sort of. PTBNL is usually a pre-arranged list of players, and the buyer agrees to let the seller choose which player from the list he gets after some period of time, and sometimes, they are broken into tiers, so if a guy plays x% of the time, you get a guy from Bucket A, but if he plays only y% of the time, you get a guy from bucket B.

Dave Cameron: Alright, I’m off to go read the new Ben Lindbergh article on juiced balls.

Dave Cameron: Link: https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-home-run-spike-juiced-ball-testing-reve…

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week.