Projecting the Hall of Fame Through 2022

Back in 1947, nine players received at least 50% of the Hall of Fame vote. That’s the last time so many players have appeared on at least half the voters’ ballots. Until this year, that is. Three players were elected this time around (Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez.) Another six received more than 50% of the vote.

Generally speaking, breaking the 50% mark is a pretty good indication that a player is going to make it at some point. Jack Morris didn’t make it, Lee Smith barely got over 50% one year and now he’s been removed from the ballot. Gil Hodges never made it. But they’re in the definite minority.

So how does the future look for the six candidates who crossed the 50% threshold but failed to reach the 75% mark? And what about players who’ll become eligible in the near future? Trying to predict the fate of those holdovers three, four, five years from now presents challenges, but we can see who will have a shot. Below, I’ve attempted to do just that.

Names of candidates through 2021 from Baseball-Reference.

*****

2018

For a more detailed look at next year’s ballot, check out my piece on it here, but the list below contains the notable new players.

First-ballot no-doubters: Chipper Jones.

Likely first-ballot Hall of Famer: Jim Thome.

Should be Hall of Famer at some point: Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen.

Deserves another ballot: Johan Santana.

Likely holdovers to Hall of Fame: Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman.

Last chance: None.

It’s going to be tough next season. Getting four guys in will be a positive step, but it could cost players like Edgar Martinez needed momentum, and the 5% rule could force out guys like Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen, who deserve a longer look.

2019

First-ballot no-doubters: Mariano Rivera.

Should be Hall of Famer at some point: Roy Halladay.

Deserves another ballot: Lance Berkman, Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte.

Likely holdovers to Hall of Fame: Edgar Martinez.

Last chance: Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff.

Edgar Martinez is at about the same place Tim Raines was when he had two years left. He’ll require a big push to gain election. It seems a bit of a stretch to think that Bonds, Clemens, or Mussina could jump more than 20% in two years, but it’s possible. If Thome has to wait, he’s also a possibility here.

2020

First-ballot no-doubters: Derek Jeter.

Should be Hall of Famer at some point: None.

Deserves another ballot: Bobby Abreu.

Likely holdovers to Hall of Fame: Mike Mussina?

Last chance: Larry Walker.

I think it’s going to be hard to get Bonds and Clemens that last push, and the presence of Jeter on the ballot is going to push just enough voters to deny two players who are viewed as cheaters. It won’t take a lot of voters to deny Bonds and Clemens. Mussina has a much better shot, though. Unfortunately, Larry Walker isn’t likely to get the boost he needs.

2021

First-ballot no-doubters: None.

Should be Hall of Famer at some point: None.

Deserves another ballot: None.

Likely holdovers to Hall of Fame: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens. Maybe Curt Schilling?

Last chance: None.

Is this the year Bonds and Clemens break through? There are no great new candidates worth a vote. It’s possible Halladay makes a big push this year. There are as many good candidates in 2018 than there are in 2019-2022 combined. We still haven’t seen too many players get aged off the ballot at this point, so it should serve as an important year for players trying to make the push for election, as well as those who might be trying to make a case for viability, Manny Ramirez, Scott Rolen, or even Jeff Kent or Billy Wagner.

2022

First-ballot no-doubters: It’s complicated.

Likely first-ballot Hall of Famer: David Ortiz.

Should be Hall of Famer at some point: Alex Rodriguez.

Likely holdovers to Hall of Fame: Maybe this is the year for Bonds and Clemens if it doesn’t happen sooner. Same for Schilling.

Last chance: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa.

This could be quite the year for the Hall of Fame. It might present the last chance for Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling, who have been kept out for varying reasons on-field and off up to this point. Sosa, if he hasn’t already been five-percented off the ballot will have his final unlikely chance here. David Ortiz seems to have the story and momentum to get in on the first ballot, and we will see if views have changed five years from now on Rodriguez or if he will be punished a bit for his transgressions.

The Hall of Fame ballot has a tremendous backlog of great candidates at the moment, but it won’t be that way forever. In the early part of the next decade, there are fewer deserving candidates coming on the ballot, and hopefully that should allow some of the crowded ballots to clear up. If you think the writers are almost done answering questions about how to vote for players who were suspected of using PEDs or caught and suspended using them, you are mistaken. Just as soon as Bonds and Clemens are on their potential final year of the ballot, David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez show up. With so many qualified candidates, next year should shape the direction of the Hall for the next half-decade.