Projecting the Prospects in the Carlos Gomez Trade

Days after acquiring Scott Kazmir, the Astros went out and bought more players last night. This time around, they acquired Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers in exchange for four prospects: Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Adrian Houser and Josh Hader. Let’s take a look at how this quartet of minor leaguers projects. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)

Brett Phillips, 3.7 WAR

Brett Phillips, 21, has split the 2015 season between High-A and Double-A where he’s hit .320/.377/.548 in 97 games. Phillips hit for gobs of power (.268 ISO) at the former location, but it’s yet to show up (.142 ISO) at the latter. Still, his ability to get on base has enabled him to post a 133 wRC+ since his promotion. Phillips also has above-average speed, which shows up in his stolen-base numbers.

Phillips’s name came up a couple of weeks ago when I conducted a search for the next Paul Goldschmidt. His numbers in High-A this year looked an awful lot like Goldschmidt’s from the same level, which is encouraging.

KATOH really likes Phillips. Based on his 2015 performance, my system pegs him for 3.7 WAR through age 28, which would have made him the 119th-highest-ranked prospect on KATOH’s preseason list. KATOH gives him a 71% chance of cracking the big leagues by his age-28 season. His projection represents a modest decrease from the 5.2 WAR forecast yielded by his 2014 numbers. Here are some statistical comps based on this year’s performance between High-A and Double-A.

Rank	Mah Dist	Name	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.26	Gary Scott	198	0.0
2	0.36	Luis Saturria	11	0.0
3	0.49	Juan Encarnacion	3,627	5.5
4	0.63	Steven Proscia*	0	0.0
5	0.67	Jermaine Dye	3,401	10.3
6	0.85	Brian Gordon	0	0.0
7	0.85	Roger Kieschnick*	136	0.0
8	0.87	Corey Hart	2,629	8.6
9	0.89	Justin Morneau	3,601	14.6
10	0.91	Brian Turner	0	0.0
11	0.91	Jeremy West	0	0.0
12	0.91	Curtis Granderson	2,896	20.1
13	0.92	Nic Jackson	0	0.0
14	1.02	Brett Lawrie*	1,810	9.0
15	1.07	Mac Williamson*	0	0.0
16	1.08	Reid Brignac	905	0.0
17	1.10	Jeff Fiorentino	173	0.6
18	1.10	Rene Tosoni*	189	0.0
19	1.10	Decomba Conner	0	0.0
20	1.11	Elliot Johnson	531	0.6

*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****
Domingo Santana, 14.3 WAR

I wrote about Domingo Santana a few weeks ago when the Astros called him up in June. Since little’s changed in the last six weeks, I’ll keep things relatively brief here. Santana’s hit an astounding .320/.426/.582 in Triple-A this year, but his high-power (.262 ISO), low-contact (28% K%) profile makes him a risky prospect. His zone contact rate in Triple-A has been all sorts of terrible, which suggests he’ll have trouble transitioning to the big leagues.

Despite his chronic contact problems, KATOH’s all in on the 23-year-old. My system pegs him for a whopping 14.3 WAR through age-28, which would have put him 4th overall on KATOH’s preseason list. His 2014 numbers yielded a forecast of 8.2 WAR. The comps:

Rank	Mah Distance	Hitter	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	1.74	Rob Maurer	29	0.0
2	3.43	Jason Botts	326	0.5
3	3.71	Nate Rolison	16	0.0
4	3.85	Jim Thome	3,782	28.7
5	5.31	Josh Whitesell	142	0.0
6	5.32	Russ Canzler	102	0.0
7	5.33	Monty Fariss	259	0.0
8	5.54	Joe Vitiello	597	0.0
9	5.68	Brent Brede	473	0.0
10	5.74	Mark Leonard	334	0.7
11	5.86	Bobby Abreu	3,554	30.8
12	6.14	Jack Cust	676	2.4
13	6.17	Warren Newson	382	1.2
14	6.38	Vince Belnome*	14	0.0
15	6.40	John Vander Wal	671	0.5
16	6.60	Travis Hafner	1,548	10.1
17	6.83	Terrell Lowery	241	0.0
18	6.89	Jack Hannahan	680	1.7
19	7.20	Ryan Langerhans	1,141	3.4
20	7.27	Melvin Nieves	1,392	0.0

*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Adrian Houser, 0.8 WAR

Former second-round pick Adrian Houser has split this year between High-A and Double-A, where he’s worked primarily in a starting capacity. The 22-year-old has pitched to a 5.10 ERA and 4.67 FIP between the two stops, but has pitched decidedly worse since his mid-June promotion to Double-A. In 33 Double-A innings, he’s posted a 5.70 FIP, and and his strikeout rate has dropped from to 15% from 25%.

KATOH projects Houser for 0.8 WAR through age 28 with a 33% chance of cracking the big leagues. His 2014 numbers yielded a similar 0.7 WAR forecast. The comps:

Rank	Mah Dist	Name	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.34	Darrin Babineaux	0	0.0
2	0.37	Glenn Bott	0	0.0
3	0.40	Miguel Nunez*	0	0.0
4	0.48	Brian Stephenson	0	0.0
5	0.54	Brooks Pounders*	0	0.0
6	0.59	Bryan Shaw*	274	1.9
7	0.59	Simon Mercedes*	0	0.0
8	0.69	Matt Perisho	215	0.0
9	0.70	Stacy Hollins	0	0.0
10	0.71	Rick Roberts	0	0.0
11	0.73	Dae-Eun Rhee*	0	0.0
12	0.74	Jason Stockstill	0	0.0
13	0.78	Chad Frontera	0	0.0
14	0.78	Nelson Castro	0	0.0
15	0.80	Neomar Flores	0	0.0
16	0.82	Jayson Durocher	55	0.0
17	0.89	Dan Kyslinger	0	0.0
18	0.90	Chad Renfroe	0	0.0
19	0.92	Woody Heath	0	0.0
20	0.93	Joey Nation	11	0.0

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Josh Hader, 2.3 WAR

Josh Hader, 21, has pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 3.47 FIP in Double-A this year, where he’s split time between the rotation and the bullpen. Hader’s struck out a respectable 24% of batters faced this year, and has put up similarly impressive strikeout numbers in prior years.

KATOH projects Hader for 2.3 WAR through age 28 with a 79% chance of cracking the big leagues. His 2014 numbers yielded a similar 2.4 WAR forecast. The comps:

Rank	Mah Dist	Name	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	1.12	Brian Sanches	36	0.0
2	1.36	Brian Stephenson	#N/A	0.0
3	1.47	Brooks Pounders	#N/A	0.0
4	1.48	Brandon Villafuerte	102	0.0
5	1.61	Aaron Small	201	0.3
6	1.68	Hansel Robles	28	0.2
7	1.71	Amalio Diaz	#N/A	0.0
8	1.72	Wilfredo Boscan	#N/A	0.0
9	1.80	Zach Davies	#N/A	0.0
10	1.82	Fernando Cabrera	175	0.0
11	1.84	Benj Sampson*	88	0.0
12	1.91	Anthony Swarzak	439	1.3
13	2.02	Jeff Housman*	#N/A	0.0
14	2.03	Matt Lubozynski*	#N/A	0.0
15	2.05	Juan Oramas*	#N/A	0.0
16	2.08	Ryan Franklin	89	0.0
17	2.10	Mike Saipe	10	0.0
18	2.11	Martin Perez*	225	2.4
19	2.14	Carlos Alvarado	#N/A	0.0
20	2.16	Scott Sullivan	324	1.7

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.