Projecting the Prospects in the Craig Kimbrel Trade
The Padres and Red Sox swung a deal on Friday night that sent Craig Kimbrel to Boston in exchange for a quartet of prospects: outfielder Manny Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, second baseman Carlos Asuaje and left-handed pitcher Logan Allen. As Dave Cameron noted immediately following the trade, the Red Sox coughed up quite a package for the rights to Kimbrel. Not only did San Diego receive a high-quality prospect in Margot, but they got quantity as well. Here’s what my fancy computer math says about these prospects. The numbers next to their names refer to their projected WAR totals through age 28 according to KATOH.
Manny Margot, 10.2 WAR
The Red Sox signed Manny Margot as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican back in 2011, and he’s hit at every stop since then. He put himself on the prospect map in 2014 with a strong showing in Low-A, but he outdid himself in 2015 by essentially replicating those numbers in both High-A and Double-A. Margot makes a ton of contact, hits for modest power and runs wild on the base paths. All of that bodes well for his future in the show, especially considering he’s always been very young for his levels. Here are some comps that were generated using a series of Mahalanobis distance calculations.
| Rank | Name | Mah Dist | WAR thru 28 |
| 1 | Erick Aybar | 1.60 | 13.3 |
| 2 | Sergio Nunez | 2.10 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Nomar Garciaparra | 2.24 | 32.6 |
| 4 | Juan Sosa | 2.32 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Manny Alexander | 2.46 | 0.0 |
| 6 | William Bergolla | 2.53 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Tike Redman | 2.55 | 1.8 |
| 8 | Jacob May* | 2.57 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Robert Valido | 2.77 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Alex Ochoa | 2.79 | 4.4 |
| 11 | Jose Ramirez* | 3.21 | 2.8 |
| 12 | Brent Abernathy | 3.25 | 0.0 |
| 13 | Shane Victorino | 3.54 | 13.1 |
| 14 | Damon Buford | 3.87 | 1.7 |
| 15 | Eider Torres | 3.94 | 0.0 |
| 16 | Anthony Webster | 3.95 | 0.0 |
| 17 | Eddy Diaz | 3.95 | 0.0 |
| 18 | Aaron Holbert | 4.04 | 0.0 |
| 19 | Jesus Tavarez | 4.05 | 0.0 |
| 20 | Matt Howard | 4.15 | 0.0 |
*****
Javier Guerra, 3.1 WAR
Javier Guerra (No, not that Javy Guerra.) was one of many intriguing infielders in the lower levels of Boston’s system. Guerra spent last season — his age-19 season — in Low-A, where he slashed .279/.329/.449. That power output is exciting, especially for a shortstop, but his strikeout numbers bordered on concerning. He struck out in 24% of his plate appearances last year, after whiffing in 20% in 2014. His strikeouts are the flaw that most threaten to derail him in the upper levels. But overall, there’s a lot to like about a shortstop who thrives in full-season ball as a teenager. Here are his statistical comps:
| Rank | Name | Mah Dist | WAR thru 28 |
| 1 | Corey Smith | 0.33 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Johermyn Chavez* | 0.59 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Franklin Gutierrez | 0.65 | 13.3 |
| 4 | Dilson Herrera* | 0.70 | 0.9 |
| 5 | Anthony Garcia* | 0.71 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Jeff Key | 0.72 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Edwin Diaz | 0.84 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Jarek Cunningham* | 0.84 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Renato Nunez* | 0.96 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Craig Wilson | 1.01 | 6.5 |
| 11 | Mike Mcdade* | 1.05 | 0.0 |
| 12 | Oreste Marrero | 1.09 | 0.0 |
| 13 | Choo Freeman | 1.15 | 0.0 |
| 14 | Brad Nelson | 1.17 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Fernando Perez* | 1.18 | 0.8 |
| 16 | Matt Kemp | 1.19 | 20.8 |
| 17 | Osvaldo Sanchez | 1.19 | 0.0 |
| 18 | Reid Brignac | 1.29 | 0.0 |
| 19 | Danny Clyburn | 1.31 | 0.0 |
| 20 | Tom Nevers | 1.31 | 0.0 |
*****
Carlos Asuaje, 1.3 WAR
Carlos Asuaje is an undersized infielder who hit an unremarkable .251/.334/.374 for Boston’s Double-A affiliate last year. Asuaje lacks power or speed, but posted strikeout and walk rates of 15% and 10%, respectively, last year — both better than average. Throw in that he doesn’t play shortstop, and Asuaje looks like more of a grinder type than a toolsy guy with tons of upside. At 24, Asuaje probably doesn’t have a ton of improving left to do, but he also doesn’t have far to go before he’s worthy of a bench role. The comps:
| Rank | Name | Mah Dist | WAR thru 28 |
| 1 | Jefry Marte* | 0.03 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Scott Romano | 0.06 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Bobby Morris | 0.13 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Josh Horton | 0.33 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Bob Zambrano | 0.38 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Colin Curtis | 0.39 | 0.0 |
| 7 | David Fisher | 0.39 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Trot Nixon | 0.45 | 11.7 |
| 9 | James Darnell | 0.50 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Rafael De Lima | 0.52 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Mark DeRosa | 0.55 | 1.1 |
| 12 | Brian Friday | 0.57 | 0.0 |
| 13 | Mike Lockwood | 0.59 | 0.0 |
| 14 | Jesus Guzman | 0.60 | 3.0 |
| 15 | Jason Varitek | 0.62 | 3.9 |
| 16 | Justin Sellers | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| 17 | Doug Saunders | 0.63 | 0.0 |
| 18 | Jamie D’Antona | 0.64 | 0.0 |
| 19 | Luis Exposito | 0.67 | 0.0 |
| 20 | Chris Martin | 0.68 | 0.0 |
*****
Logan Allen, Insufficient Data
Logan Allen is the lone pitcher headed to San Diego in this deal, and is also the most raw of the four prospects involved. Boston drafted Allen in the eighth round out of high school in the most recent draft. Yet, despite being a late round pick, he dominated in his first taste of pro ball. He spun a 1.59 ERA in eight starts, with a 26:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24.1 innings. Straight up video game numbers. Of course, the sample is small, and his performance came against a low level of competition. So it would be wise to defer to scouting reports, rather than dwelling on Allen’s performance. Nonetheless, you’d be hard pressed to find a prospect with a better pro debut than Allen’s.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
In other words, we got the guy who’s the best comp to the Red Sox top prospect. Braves fans gotta chill out.
Good point, John. Because a 32-year old shortstop with one year of control at $8.5M per year is most likely to develop into a 21 year old AA player under team control for six seasons at cheap prices. Totally the same thing. It’s not like these Mahalanobis distance metrics are only one way, intending to inform what a prospect not yet in baseball will become. They’ve obviously two ways, and we can expect players to turn from one into the other. Personally, I’m hoping that Trot Nixon can make a comeback and play AA again this year.
Honestly, I’d love to see Trot Nixon make a comeback. Hot Trot was awesome. Cowboy Up!
Not really though. The reason a perfectly average MLB regular (which is what Manuel Margot is being projected to become) has value, is that you have 6 or 7 years pre-FA years of them. If the Padres were getting one year of the average projected outcome of Margot, and for 1 year and $8 million, fans would have infinitely less reason to be excited about it.
i’ve never gotten much out of these melanoobis comps and the margot list really kind of tears it for me. a player who’s been strong statistically at a young ages for his levels and his comp list is nomar, two other major leaguers and a bunch of chumps. you know… just like everybody’s. they take up an awful lot of space in the articles
Most prospects bust. Prospects with limited time in AA and none above are pretty good candidates to bust. It should not be at all surprising that most of the comps for a prospect with limited time in AA are busts.
But once upon a time, Nomar was a prospect with limited time in AA and none above. For that matter, not all that long ago, Mike Trout was a prospect.
Prospects have value because some fraction of them do well in the show and are hugely profitable, and because the rest are mostly cheap. Take a bunch, most will bust, but some will make a team owner even richer than he already is.
AFAICT the comp list doesn’t tell you the projected value, that’s at the top next to the name. It tells you a rough ceiling and floor.
This guy could be the next Nomar, in which case the Red Sox will probably be regretting the trade (baring a series win with Kimbral). He could be a future chump, in which case the Padres will be regretting the trade (baring one of the other prospects panning out or Kimbral flaming out).
Very well put, Doug. The Mahalanobis aren’t meant to give you a straight answer on how a prospect will turn out — that’s why I give the KATOH forecast first. The comps just give a range of possible outcomes. There will be a wide range of them for almost every prospect that isn’t a tippy-top prospect or org guy. If a successful player turns up in the comps (and also has similar tools), he’s a living breathing example of that prospect’s upside.
Not that into Katoh. Haven’t really agreed with it over the ones I look at, and it seems to be to broad without as much accuracy as I would like. I am not a big fan of your analysis since you never seem to be analyzing anything you just describe what your projections are doing without even getting into hardly any individual skill evaluations, or personal thoughts on them as individuals.Try writing posts that have a story instead of just roster-baiting over your own projection system.
No, that was Kato. I do agree it far more than what people are watching and it seems that the fish is not just like I wanted. I’m not a big fan of the analysis because they never seem nothing but their analysis describes how the project even without almost no evaluation of the capability of staff or personal thoughts about them as individuals. Write a story and not just a primer on the list system.
i’m not surprised that most of the prospects on the list are busts. that was kind of my point actually
That’s the point: the difference between strong and weak prospects is whether their list has two decent players, or one, or three; and whether those players are 5 win or 30. They mostly flame out, is the takeaway.
i get that, i’m just not convinced it’s that precise, to the point where i’m not sure it adds much of anything to just reading a scouting report on the guy.
maybe it’s just me!
I love seeing the range of outcomes of similar players. Much more interesting than a single summary statistic showing the average WAR. It gives you a better intuitive sense of the range of outcomes.
Basically every prospect is going to have a high proportion of duds. That’s part of what makes the best prospects stand out, when they have a lower proportion of duds.
Can’t wait for the Sullivan piece on this – seems like one of the most lopsided deals in recent history.
In other words, if Kimbrel gives the Red Sox 14.6 WAR and pays them back all his salary above the major league minimum, it’s an even trade.
I think this trade was a clear win for the Sox. It was almost certainly a good trade for the Padres as well, but there doesn’t have to be a loser in a trade like this. The Padres had an elite closer on a marginally competitive team with a minor league system bereft of talent. The Red Sox have a deep pool of minor league talent coupled with expectations that they will compete for a championship soonervrsthet than later. The Red Sox faithful have every reason to expect that their team will be competing at the highest level in the near to medium term. The acquisition of Kimbtel helps breathe life into those expectations. The Padres needed to get younger, deeper and more athletic. This trade helps them achieve that goal. This is a win win trade by almost any measure.
If I were to engage in personally projected results based analysis, I would grade this trade as a clear win for the Sox as I have little faith in the prospects involved, but I recognize that I’m in the minority there. Let’s hope both franchises flourish as a result of this fascinating trade 🙂
Kimbrel makes sense for the Red Sox, just not at this cost. Padres should have been happy to get either Margot or Guerra plus maybe Allen, not all three AND another guy AND not pick up any of Kimbrel’s money.
Any writeup on Guerra that neglects to mention his defense is missing his carrying tool. I’ve seen him a number of times, and there’s a real possibility that he rivals Andrelton Simmons defensively. Highlight reel plays happen daily with this kid. At bat, I saw a lot of line drives and gap power. He may have issues with plate discipline, but it’ll have to be pretty bad for it to keep him from being an everyday player with that defense.