Projecting the Prospects Traded Over the Weekend

A bevy of trades went down over the weekend, as this year’s trade deadline-season entered into full swing. Here are the prospects who changed teams the last couple of days, as evaluated by my newly updated KATOH system. KATOH denotes WAR forecast for first six years of player’s major-league career. KATOH+ uses similar methodology with consideration also for Baseball America’s rankings.

The Andrew Miller Trade

Clint Frazier, OF, New York (AL)

KATOH: 2.7 WAR
KATOH+: 4.7 WAR

Frazier had been promoted to Triple-A a week ago after slashing a strong .276/.356/.469 with 13 steals at Double-A this year. He pairs a high walk rate with decent power and speed, making him one of the most promising offensive prospects in baseball. Despite possessing average speed, Frazier plays mostly the corner-outfield spots these days, and hasn’t graded out particularly well there defensively. This suggests most of his big-league value will come from his hitting. Still, considering he’s a 21-year-old who’s already mastered Double-A, his future looks bright.

To put some faces to Frazier’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the Yankees’ new outfield prospect. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Frazier’s Double-A performance this year and every season at those levels since 1991 in which a hitter recorded at least 400 batters faced. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Clint Frazier’s Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name Mah Dist KATOH+ Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Carlos Gonzalez 0.67 5.6 19.0
2 Jacob Cruz 0.80 3.5 1.4
3 Tony Tarasco 0.84 4.3 1.4
4 Alex Romero 0.98 4.2 0.0
5 Todd Linden 0.99 4.9 1.0
6 Cody Ross 1.02 4.0 7.3
7 T.J. Staton 1.18 3.5 0.0
8 Scott Hunter 1.43 4.4 0.0
9 Ozzie Timmons 1.49 4.6 0.9
10 Todd Dunwoody 1.53 4.1 1.7

To help you visualize what his KATOH projection entails, here is a probability density function showing KATOH+’s projected distribution of outcomes for Frazier’s first six seasons in the major leagues.

Frazier

*****

Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York (AL)

KATOH: 1.6 WAR
KATOH+: 2.4 WAR

Definitely NOT the nephew of Gary Sheffield, Justus is an under-sized lefty who’s had some success in A-ball the last two seasons. Sheffield’s numbers aren’t eye-popping but strong enough to suggest he’ll be a useful big leaguer. KATOH doesn’t particularly like that he’s only 5-foot-10, but doesn’t see that as a major inhibitor.

Justus Sheffield’s Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name Mah Dist KATOH+ Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Benito Baez 0.96 1.8 0.0
2 Tim Drew 1.20 1.6 0.5
3 Chad Durbin 1.44 2.2 1.4
4 Gaby Hernandez 1.49 3.5 0.0
5 Shawn Nottingham 1.55 1.7 0.0
6 Allen Levrault 1.65 1.8 0.2
7 Jose Garcia 1.66 2.4 0.0
8 Ryan Tucker 1.67 1.7 0.0
9 J.D. Durbin 1.78 3.1 0.3
10 Javier Martinez 1.81 1.3 0.0

And here’s a graph illusttrating the probability of certain outcomes:

Sheffield

*****

Ben Heller, RHP, New York (AL)

KATOH: 1.1 WAR
KATOH+: 1.0 WAR

As a soon-to-be 25-year-old reliever who was drafted in the 22nd round, Heller has lived outside the prospect radar. His numbers, however, tell of a potentially useful bullpen arm. He’s pitched to an excellent 1.73 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A this year, on the strength of a 29% strikeout rate. He struck out a similarly impressive 33% in 2015. For obvious reasons, KATOH never gets excited about relievers in their mid-20s, but it’s at least mildly intrigued by Heller’s strikeout abilities.

Heller

*****

J.P. Feyereisen, RHP, New York (AL)

KATOH: 1.2 WAR
KATOH+: 1.0 WAR

Feyereisen’s another late-round, old-ish relief prospect who’s posted excellent strikeout numbers in the minor leagues. The 23-year-old has whiffed 33% of opposing batters in Double-A this year, after fanning 30% in A-ball last year. Feyereisen could stand to walk fewer hitters, but as with Heller, his strikeouts make him mildly interesting.

Feyer

*****

The Mark Melancon Trade

Taylor Hearn, LHP, Pittsburgh

KATOH: 0.7 WAR
KATOH+: 0.7 WAR

Hearn has pitched very well in the low minors this year, but has worked primarily as a reliever. Prior to this year, the 6-foot-5 lefty had a good-but-not-great season in short-season A-ball in 2015. Hearn has good stuff, and his numbers have been fine, but KATOH would like to see a bit more from a soon-to-be-22-year-old reliever in the low minors.

Hearn

*****

The Billy Burns Trade

Brett Eibner, OF, Oakland

KATOH: 2.4 WAR
KATOH+: 2.6 WAR

A second-round pick from way back in 2010, Eibner finally made it to the big leagues this year after hitting a very respectable .298/.371/.515 in Triple-A between this year and last. Eibner pairs interesting power with a decent walk rate and a touch of speed. On the downside, he’s already 27 and hasn’t always done a terrific job of making contact. He smells like a future reserve outfielder.

Eibner

*****

The Tyler Clippard Trade

Vicente Campos, RHP, Arizona

KATOH: 1.6 WAR
KATOH+: 1.4 WAR

Campos sat out all of 2014 and much of 2015 following Tommy John surgery, but has already managed to log 121 innings this year. He’s held his own, pitching to a 3.20 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate. Campos’ numbers have been decent, but KATOH dings him for being a 24-year-old who just recently graduated from A-ball. Given his injury history, that penalty may not be entirely justified, so KATOH might be underrating him slightly.

Campos

*****

The Zach Duke Trade

Charlie Tilson, OF, Chicago (AL)

KATOH: 4.3 WAR
KATOH+: 4.4 WAR

Tilson makes a lot of contact, but offers very little in terms of power. Given the fact that he’s already 23 and stands at just 5-foot-11, that’s unlikely to change. Still, he’s managed above-average wRC+s in the high minors while playing center field and demonstrating good speed on the bases. His lack of power probably limits his upside some, but as a high-contact player who’s just about big-league ready, he’s a good bet to provide at least some big-league value.

Charlie Tilson’s Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name Mah Dist KATOH+ Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Denard Span 1.26 3.9 18.6
2 Tike Redman 1.40 3.0 2.7
3 Julio Borbon 2.27 5.3 1.2
4 Jason Conti 2.39 5.1 1.2
5 Reggie Taylor 2.66 2.6 0.4
6 Gregor Blanco 2.93 5.6 7.4
7 Angel Pagan 2.95 4.3 10.0
8 Andres Torres 3.01 2.8 0.0
9 Tony Gwynn 3.32 4.6 6.5
10 Austin Jackson 3.68 5.5 18.0

Here’s the projected distribution of outcomes for Eibner’s first six seasons:

Tilson

*****

The Wade Miley Trade

Ariel Miranda, LHP, Seattle

KATOH: 0.6 WAR
KATOH+: 0.6 WAR

Miranda’a held his own as a starter at the Triple-A level this year, but hasn’t stood out in any one area. KATOH doesn’t like that Miranda’s already 27 years old, and his underwhelming numbers do little to waver my system’s pessimism. He looks more like a Triple-A depth piece than an impact big leaguer.

Miranda





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

14 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Francis C.
7 years ago

Justus is not related to Gary Sheffield. See last question in the linked interview:
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/166008912/get-to-know-indians-prospect-justus-sheffield/

dodgerbleu
7 years ago
Reply to  Francis C.

Wow. Thanks. EVERY outlet has that wrong. Good to know.