Projection Leaderboard Fun Courtesy of ZiPS and Fans

Now that spring training is getting to the point where stats and injuries are beginning to add up, it’s a good time to peek in on some in-season expectations from ZiPS and the Fans. The “Projections” tab on our header is a great place to burn away time at the office. There are currently five projection systems located there and each has a couple surprises.

ZiPS went fully live about a week ago and we’re combining it with Steamer for the WAR projection on our Depth Charts page. The Fans projection is from our crowdsourcing project. The numbers tend to come out a tad optimistic, so keep that in mind. There’s no special reason to be looking at these two systems side by side, but both recently went live for the season and both interest me.

Let’s kick off with offensive players. Below are tables for players with the best projected wOBA, best defensive projection, and highest base running. ZiPS is on the left and Fans is on the right.

Top 15 wOBA

Name	G	PA	wOBA	|	Name	G	PA	wOBA
Miguel Cabrera	149	648	0.416	|	Miguel Cabrera	151	665	0.431
Mike Trout	156	714	0.402	|	Joey Votto	155	681	0.417
Joey Votto	142	627	0.396	|	Mike Trout	145	655	0.402
David Ortiz	110	472	0.392	|	Giancarlo Stanton	139	607	0.395
Jose Bautista	113	498	0.389	|	Paul Goldschmidt	156	685	0.394
Ryan Braun	155	664	0.388	|	Carlos Gonzalez	138	603	0.392
Troy Tulowitzki	128	529	0.383	|	David Ortiz	133	577	0.390
Bryce Harper	142	599	0.382	|	Edwin Encarnacion	143	620	0.390
Giancarlo Stanton	133	553	0.382	|	Andrew McCutchen	156	686	0.390
Edwin Encarnacion	134	564	0.379	|	Troy Tulowitzki	135	589	0.390
Carlos Gonzalez	133	553	0.377	|	Bryce Harper	144	632	0.389
Chris Davis	149	612	0.377	|	Joe Mauer	147	649	0.386
Jose Abreu	130	538	0.375	|	Ryan Braun	152	665	0.386
Prince Fielder	155	669	0.372	|	Prince Fielder	156	677	0.385
Paul Goldschmidt	156	668	0.372	|	David Wright	145	637	0.384

Of the two top 15 lists, 12 players overlap. ZiPS includes Abreu, Davis, and Bautista while the Fans have tabbed McCutchen, Mauer, and Wright. Of the 12 players that overlapped, Fans averaged a 10 point higher wOBA projection.

With the notable exception of Mauer, the 20 players on this list are among the most likely in baseball to hit over 30 home runs. Other players who are projected to hit 30 home runs by one of the two systems are Mark Trumbo, Jay Bruce, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, Adam Jones, and Alfonso Soriano.

Top 15 Defense

Name	G	Fld	|	Name	G	Fld
Andrelton Simmons	143	16	|	Andrelton Simmons	154	18
Manny Machado	156	14	|	Manny Machado	138	15
Gerardo Parra	151	14	|	Josh Reddick	140	15
Craig Gentry	113	13	|	Juan Lagares	134	15
Starling Marte	138	12	|	Jason Heyward	147	14
Jason Heyward	134	12	|	Nolan Arenado	148	14
Shane Victorino	132	11	|	Lorenzo Cain	123	13
Carlos Gomez	138	11	|	Gerardo Parra	140	13
Juan Uribe	103	11	|	Starling Marte	144	12
Nolan Arenado	154	11	|	Carlos Gomez	145	12
Gregory Polanco	132	11	|	Evan Longoria	148	11
Juan Lagares	142	10	|	Jose Iglesias	143	11
Darwin Barney	152	10	|	Darwin Barney	131	11
Dustin Pedroia	145	10	|	Dustin Pedroia	153	10
Josh Reddick	140	10	|	Alex Gordon	155	10
Alex Gordon	155	10		Shane Victorino	133	10

12 of the top 15 defensive projections are shared by the two systems. There’s generally less discrepancy between the fielding projections compared with wOBA. Both ZiPS and the Fans like Simmons and Machado a ton. ZiPS includes Uribe, Gentry, and Polanco while the Fans favor Cain, Longoria, and Iglesias. Polanco and Iglesias are a little bit odd as “choices.” Polanco has a big playing time projection from ZiPS but probably won’t hit the field for 132 games. Maybe he will. Iglesias comes with excellent scouting reports on his defense, but his work to date is inconclusive. He was very good in a tiny 2012 sample and then roughly league average in his 2013 half season sample.

Top 10 Baserunning

Name	Games	BsR	|	Name	G	BsR
Billy Hamilton	140	7.3	|	Everth Cabrera	140	6.9
Mike Trout	156	5.2	|	Billy Hamilton	133	6.8
Jarrod Dyson	111	4.6	|	Carlos Gomez	145	5.2
Billy Burns	112	4.4	|	Jacoby Ellsbury	136	4.9
Quintin Berry	117	4.1	|	Mike Trout	145	4.2
Tony Campana	136	3.8	|	Ben Revere	144	4.1
Carlos Gomez	138	3.7	|	Rajai Davis	101	3.9
Everth Cabrera	109	3.7	|	Jean Segura	152	3.9
Eric Young	129	3.7	|	Jonathan Villar	120	3.9
Rajai Davis	118	3.6	|	Eric Young	102	3.9

I restricted this list to the top 10, since base runner value drops towards average very quickly. Last season, only 18 players provided over five runs of value on the bases. Obviously, our projections expect a lot of regression to league average.

ZiPS includes bullish playing time projections for a lot of backup players. Dyson, Burns, Berry, and Campana are very unlikely to play enough to make good on these numbers. They serve as a reminder that speed alone is not enough to start in the majors.

Top 20 Starter ERA

Name	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	FIP	|	Name	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Clayton Kershaw	2.26	227.3	9.23	2.14	2.55	|	Clayton Kershaw	2.40	233	9.31	2.12	2.60
Jose Fernandez	2.57	154	9.53	3.16	2.86	|	Jose Fernandez	2.82	202	9.62	2.9	2.99
Stephen Strasburg	2.83	149.7	9.86	2.46	2.95	|	Stephen Strasburg	2.84	202	9.76	2.58	2.99
Madison Bumgarner	2.86	204.7	8.62	2.37	3.09	|	Cliff Lee	2.86	227	8.6	1.27	2.92
Zack Greinke	2.95	192	8.25	2.06	3.00	|	Madison Bumgarner	2.89	216	8.71	2.29	2.92
Matt Harvey	3.01	164.3	9.15	2.68	2.99	|	Yu Darvish	2.93	218	11.11	3.34	3.12
Yu Darvish	3.03	201.7	11.74	3.53	3.17	|	Felix Hernandez	2.96	228	9.08	2.21	2.76
Cliff Lee	3.04	198.3	8.85	1.41	2.91	|	Matt Harvey	3.02	75	9.48	2.28	2.65
Felix Hernandez	3.07	211.3	9.37	2.13	2.74	|	Adam Wainwright	3.03	222	8.35	1.74	2.76
Justin Verlander	3.07	216.7	9.34	2.49	3.00	|	Justin Verlander	3.06	226	8.8	2.55	3.23
David Price	3.09	198	8.59	2.09	3.09	|	Zack Greinke	3.07	205	8.25	2.24	3.11
Gio Gonzalez	3.15	188.3	8.75	3.3	3.30	|	Matt Cain	3.10	216	7.58	2.5	3.48
Cory Luebke	3.16	71.3	8.96	2.78	3.08	|	David Price	3.10	224	8.32	2.01	3.16
Johnny Cueto	3.17	136.3	6.74	2.31	3.52	|	Johnny Cueto	3.13	169	7.4	2.5	3.56
Chris Sale	3.17	204.3	9.87	2.16	3.14	|	Chris Sale	3.14	213	9.3	2.15	3.05
Doug Fister	3.19	192	6.75	1.69	3.18	|	Gerrit Cole	3.15	198	8.77	2.5	2.94
Andrew Cashner	3.19	141	7.02	2.49	3.32	|	Mat Latos	3.16	217	8.38	2.45	3.22
Matt Cain	3.19	191.7	7.7	2.39	3.47	|	Sonny Gray	3.17	179	8.8	2.77	3.20
Adam Wainwright	3.20	208.3	7.91	1.69	2.88	|	Hisashi Iwakuma	3.17	204	7.37	2.03	3.69
Hisashi Iwakuma	3.23	195	8.03	1.85	3.44	|	Cole Hamels	3.19	224	8.56	2.13	3.20

We observe some agreement with our starting pitcher top 20 list – 16 out of 20. The divergences are Gonzalez, Luebke, Fister, and Cashner on the ZiPS side. Fans includes Cole, Latos, Gray, and Hamels.

ZiPS doesn’t know about the injuries to Harvey or Luebke. The Fans do, yet they still projected 75 innings for Harvey. Unless the Mets are in the playoff race, Harvey will almost certainly be eased back into action. A 75 inning projection basically says he’ll be back around the All Star break, which would be quite ambitious. Cueto could make for an interesting story this year. Both systems think he’ll perform very well when healthy, they’re just not willing to count on that health.

The Fans seem more willing to believe in sophomores like Cole and Gray. ZiPS only includes Fernandez and Iwakuma. That might highlight a shortcoming of either system. Perhaps ZiPS is too conservative with young pitchers or maybe the fans fall too far in love with the next big thing.

Top 20 Reliever ERA

Name	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	FIP	|	Name	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Craig Kimbrel	1.43	69	14.48	2.74	1.58	|	Kenley Jansen	2.25	71	13.18	2.28	2.06
Kenley Jansen	1.91	70.7	13.75	2.67	2.11	|	Craig Kimbrel	2.26	70	13.5	2.44	1.69
Koji Uehara	2.07	52.3	12.22	1.2	2.03	|	Koji Uehara	2.31	69	11.66	1.39	2.25
Aroldis Chapman	2.21	65.3	14.75	4	2.44	|	Greg Holland	2.38	66	12.55	2.59	1.81
Trevor Rosenthal	2.37	79.7	11.63	2.71	2.37	|	Aroldis Chapman	2.39	70	13.44	3.36	2.34
Sergio Romo	2.39	52.7	9.91	1.88	2.52	|	Sean Marshall	2.42	63	9.45	2.1	2.35
Joaquin Benoit	2.55	60	11.25	2.85	2.63	|	Sergio Romo	2.44	64	9.69	1.66	2.49
Sean Marshall	2.68	40.3	9.83	2.46	2.80	|	David Robertson	2.44	65	11.22	2.63	2.52
Jason Grilli	2.68	50.3	11.45	2.86	2.61	|	Javier Lopez	2.45	71	7.74	2.93	2.68
David Robertson	2.71	63	12.14	3.14	2.68	|	Mark Melancon	2.48	68	8.62	1.77	2.50
Mark Melancon	2.75	68.7	8.38	1.83	2.64	|	Trevor Rosenthal	2.51	66	11.55	2.55	2.39
Glen Perkins	2.79	61.3	10.86	2.5	2.84	|	Joe Nathan	2.54	68	10.19	2.78	2.75
Tyler Clippard	2.80	70.7	10.31	3.06	3.33	|	Steve Cishek	2.58	68	9.53	3.18	2.65
Steve Cishek	2.81	64	9.42	3.23	2.99	|	Glen Perkins	2.58	61	10.43	2.14	2.78
Sean Doolittle	2.87	69	9.91	2.48	2.70	|	Darren O’Day	2.61	67	8.87	2.01	3.20
Joe Nathan	2.90	52.7	10.42	2.73	2.69	|	Ryan Cook	2.63	59	9.26	3.26	2.92
Jordan Walden	2.93	52.3	10.67	3.27	2.82	|	Bobby Parnell	2.65	60	8.11	2.36	2.98
Grant Balfour	2.98	57.3	10.05	3.46	3.33	|	Eric O’Flaherty	2.65	59	7.23	2.57	3.33
Ryan Cook	3.01	68.7	9.56	3.67	3.27	|	Aaron Loup	2.70	60	6.93	1.77	3.21
Paco Rodriguez	3.02	41.7	10.14	3.45	3.34	|	Kevin Siegrist	2.75	60	9.78	3.72	2.89

Not surprisingly, there’s the least agreement with our reliever list. Only 14 of the 20 names are shared on both lists. ZiPS appears more bullish on strikeout rates than the Fans. It’s interesting to see that the Fans expect a ever-so-slightly better ERA from Jansen than Kimbrel, but a glance at the FIP column shows that it’s just a quirk of the process. Marshall missed most of 2013, but both ZiPS and the Fans foresee a quick return to form.