Rangers Strike First and Furious to Take Game Four

Do you like pitchers? Of course you do – you’re reading a recap of a World Series game on FanGraphs. Good news, then: Game 4 had so many pitchers. Swingmen, high-leverage guys, LOOGYs, ROOGYs, forgotten starters who had accumulated a light covering of dust throughout the playoffs, closers, setup men. You name it, this one had it. Unless, of course, you were rooting for the Diamondbacks.
When bullpen games work, a whirling mass of relievers traipse onto the mound and befuddle the hitters. When bullpen games don’t work, a whirling mass of relievers still traipse onto the mound, but with significantly less befuddling. Tuesday was one of those nights.
Joe Mantiply started off smoothly for the Diamondbacks, with four outs among the first six hitters. The bottom of the lineup was up, but Mantiply had already thrown 28 pitches, and Torey Lovullo started the bullpen carousel. Miguel Castro came in – and then things fell apart.
Castro retired the first batter he faced, but he just didn’t have it. Even that at-bat featured spotty command, and things got worse from there. With Leody Taveras batting, Castro uncorked a wild pitch that allowed a run to score. Then he walked Taveras. Then Travis Jankowski, who had only batted twice this postseason and was only in the lineup due to Adolis García’s oblique injury, laced a line drive single. Suddenly Texas’ best hitters were up with a chance to do damage.
As they have all postseason, the Rangers capitalized. Marcus Semien turned on a low and away slider and tucked it into the left field corner for a triple that scored two runs. Lovullo had just the medicine – another reliever. You can’t let Corey Seager face a righty in a big spot. But news flash: You can’t let Seager face a lefty in a big spot either. Kyle Nelson threw a slider in the strike zone, and Seager demolished it, 430 feet to center field. Suddenly it was 5-0 Rangers, and the Diamondbacks still had seven innings to cover.
Sometimes when these things don’t work, they really don’t work. Nelson wasn’t any better in a fresh inning, surrendering back-to-back one-out singles. Christian Walker booted a grounder, and suddenly the bases were loaded instead of the inning being over. Luis Frías – Arizona’s pitcher count was up to four – gave up a backbreaking two-run double to Jankowski. The game felt like it might already be over at that point, but it certainly felt like it was over when Semien cranked a patented three-run homer, fairly well hit and dead pulled. 10-0 Rangers, last Diamondback out the door please turn out the lights.
That’s not how it works, of course. It was only the third inning, with miles to go before anyone could sleep. All the Diamondbacks needed was a few crooked innings, and then maybe a few more crooked innings after that, an airtight rest of the game on the other side of the ledger, and probably a bit of luck.
While the Rangers had been bopping their way to a lopsided score, Arizona’s bats had gone quiet. Entering the game, Texas looked likely to go to some kind of bullpen game themselves. Andrew Heaney wasn’t supposed to go in Game 4; Jon Gray was the scheduled starter, but he was pressed into service when Max Scherzer left Game 3 with a back injury. The new plan: Heaney, followed by as many relievers as necessary to close things out.
That plan worked better than the Rangers could have planned. Heaney didn’t have his best stuff, but your best stuff is not required when staked to a 10-0 lead. He danced through five innings, ugly but effective. The Diamondbacks put a runner on in every inning, but they repeatedly failed to cash in. Ketel Marte got caught stealing. Alek Thomas couldn’t capitalize in a two-out opportunity; neither could Corbin Carroll. Runners on second and third with no one out turned into only one run in the fourth. Carroll got a second shot and came up empty again.
When Heaney departed, he did so with a 10-1 edge, and presumably with a standing ovation from the rest of the Texas pitching staff. His five innings turned Bruce Bochy’s pitching plan from some complex multivariate equation into a matter of simple addition. One inning from Dane Dunning, one inning from Cody Bradford; it was just a matter of time and gravity until the game ended.
That’s not to say that Arizona didn’t make things interesting. If you thought the belly of the Diamondbacks bullpen was bad, wait until you hear about the Texas ensemble. Brock Burke, Scherzer’s injury replacement, faced four batters and recorded one out. Chris Stratton, who might have been the least-trusted bullpen arm before Burke was in the fold, faced the next three and gave up two 100-mph laser beams. One of those hung up in right field for a sacrifice fly. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit the second one, and he didn’t treat the Rangers so kindly. He cleared the wall for a three-run home run, tightening the score to 11-5.
That’s right – while the Diamondbacks were slowly grinding away on offense, Texas’ bats went quiet. The reliever parade that had gone so poorly gave way to just one man: Ryne Nelson. Nelson has barely pitched this October. He was part of the rotation this year, but as I mentioned, that rotation only goes three deep these days. That made him the odd man out, but perhaps it shouldn’t have. He shredded the Rangers over five and a third innings, to the tune of six strikeotus, three hits, and a solitary run. Maybe the Diamondbacks should have started him!
Of course, that’s not how things work. Nelson got time and leash to cruise because Lovullo had shifted from win-the-game mode to preserve-my-good-relievers mode. Burke and Stratton gave up those runs because the game got so out of hand that Texas also used their weakest arms. When the game got back to even a somewhat close count at 11-5, Bochy went back to maximum effort mode to start the bottom of the ninth inning.
Will Smith came on as the sixth Rangers pitcher of the night, matching the Diamondbacks’ total. He was far from sharp – the first two batters he faced reached – but with a six-run lead, you have a little bit of room to play around and explore the studio space. Marte and Carroll, the most dangerous Diamondbacks, both struck out. Light was fading fast.
Somehow, it wasn’t fading fast enough for Bochy, though. His try-hard genes had been activated, and it was time to lean hard on the bullpen. Closer José Leclerc came in, with a six-run lead and two outs in the ninth, because I suppose you can never be sure enough. Gabriel Moreno greeted him rudely with a two-run single. But it’s pretty hard to dig out of a hole this deep; Leclerc persevered and got the final out of the game to close it out.
I just watched this game, and I can still hardly believe that the Rangers used more pitchers than the Diamondbacks. But really, that’s a weird way of looking at things. The game, the competitive part of the game at least, ended after three innings. The six innings after that were just a scrimmage that happened to take place at the World Series, more or less; both teams were playing for tomorrow. But that might be all there is; one more win will send Texas home victorious. For all the doom and gloom that had been in the air before the game – injured stars and uncertain pitching plans – it was a great night for the Rangers.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
I can’t feel my face
I can’t feel your face either with these damn t-rex arms
One of the interesting things about this playoff format is that you only need two top starters for the first two rounds, but you need at least 3 for the last two. Both of these teams were well positioned in the first two rounds but were relying on a lot of untested options for a couple of games in the series, and it taxes the bullpen depth if you go to a bullpen game. The chances that things blow up and go sideways is huge.
The separator in this series is the Rangers’ lineup. The FG odds and the prognosticators really underrated their lineup, but the whole thing is deadly from top to bottom. I still remember that piece here at FG talking about the Rays and Rangers matchup and it listed the whole lineup and it was overwhelming. The Rangers can make other teams’ pitchers blow up.
The only thing I can say is while Texas only had 2 reliable options, they did have other starters in reserve with Scherzer, Gray, Dunning, Heaney. None of them are great (with caveat for Scherzer’s health..if he was healthy he MAY be great), but, they’re all solid #3-4 types that you should feel comfortable going thru the order 1x.
Bochy could easily say that we can probably cobble together 5-6 innings in games 3 AND 4 with these 4 guys.
Plus Martin Perez to boot.
Scherzer was declared out for the Series before the game, wasn’t he?
Yes
I meant before the series started. Obviously, it’s different now..but, even then, he got his 6 innings from Scherzer/Gray in game 3 & Heaney/Dunning in Game 4.
& can probably go into Game 7, if needed, with Gray going as long as he is effective AND he has Dunning AND Heaney AND probably a couple innings from Eovaldi if needed.Also, means his relievers aren’t seen 4-5x like Philadelphia had in the NLCS.
That depth of decent starters is an advantage that AZ doesn’t have. They have 3 guys & pray for rain.
Also I was wrong about that deal for Corey Seager. Can you imagine how good the Dodgers would have been if they still had him?
Imagine if they had a competent manager!
If the other option was Lux, one of Seager or Trea Turner had to be resigned or even both. Seager’s bat plays at 3B or even 1B. Turner should last longer as a speedy non lumberer and could have moved to RF or even DH. They won 100 games and have an edge in the Ohtani competition but they should be spending in the top 3
I read recently that the Dodgers didn’t go after Seager because they felt he was going to have to move off of SS. Are they insane?!! That bat plays anywhere on the diamond times 10. Maybe Acuna, but other than him I can’t think of a hitter I would rather have on my team. Isn’t it even worse to not aggressively pursue a great player like Seager than it was for Bloom to trade Betts. Bloom got a fair amount of value in return while Miguel Rojas played SS for the Dodgers
Yordan Alvarez and Juan Soto are good too but still I agree that position is a very bad reason to not pursue Seager. Signing Turner instead would be defensible
The real reason to not sign Corey Seager isn’t because of position–it’s because of health. Seager missed a ton of games because of health with the Dodgers. That’s a good reason to not sign him. And he missed a bunch of games this year too, but he’s been healthy in the playoffs and now that they’re in it, that’s all that matters.
It would be nice if he could stick at SS for a few more years but that’s all the Dodgers would have needed from him.
He’d be an interesting one for Jay’s HoF analysis. 32 WAR entering his age 30 season. He’s got a shot, especially if he can play a little more over the next 5 years. .396 xwOBA over his last 1840 PAs is pretty convincing.
This has to be one of the most boring World Series ever.
2007 says hi.
Last night was boring and game 3 was meh but the first two games were great.
Probably in the top 120
Even as a Texan, that was brutal and unpleasant to watch. Just a slog of a game, slow and after two innings basically pointless.
The most interesting part was how it sets up today’s game. Before Ryne Nelson soaked up his 5 innings, it looked like the Rangers had a chance to completely break the AZ staff. For a while I thought we might see a hitter pitching in the World Series. But then, I also thought Bochy would let Dunning and Martin Perez soak up innings 6-9 to save his guys for tomorrow.
Today ARI likely goes Gallen, Saalfrank, Ginkel, Seawald no matter what the situation and score, right? And likewise TEX likely has to combine Eovaldi, Chapman (ugh), Sborz, and Leclerc.
The starter who goes deepest wins.
Unless Arizona scores 9 in the first or something
Chapman (ugh) is not an easy guy to root for.
If this had still been a 10-run game by the 8th, would Lovullo have used a position player in the world series? discuss.
I would say yes. Wouldn’t be the first time for the playoffs, at least. I know Cliff Pennington pitched for the Blue Jays in the 2015 ALCS.
Jace Peterson?
I was wondering why Castro came in rather than Kyle Nelson or Saalfrank when there were a bunch of lefties coming up and men on base. By the Kyle came in it was already a crooked number
I don’t think they trust Saalfrank very much right now after how walk happy he got against Philly.
And to be fair it’s really only Lowe and Jankowski who are lefties. Jung bats right and Heim and Tavares are switch hitters (I believe Heim is more dangerous as a power threat from the right side)
Yes lefties make Lowe, Jankowski and Taveras worse and Heim better. Semien and Seager are good against anyone
Semien finally breaking through and having a good/very good game was wonderful to see. He’s been underperforming in a big way and with Garcia gone, TX needs a replacement big stick.