Rockies Overpay at Second Deadline
Due to an injury to Rafael Betancourt as well as other concerns, the Rockies were looking to add a reliever on today’s waiver trade deadline. They did just that today, acquiring Manny Delcarmen from the Boston Red Sox along with cash considerations (not Kevin Cash considerations) in exchange for minor league reliever Chris Balcom-Miller.
Delcarmen satisfies the Rockies needs in the sense that he has been a relief pitcher in the minor leagues before, but he isn’t likely to actually improve the Rockies bullpen. His 4.70 ERA is not MLB quality for a reliever, and his 5.18 xFIP and 5.69 FIP suggest that me may be even worse. Delcarmen walks far too many batters – 5.7 per nine innings – to survive without an elite strikeout rate. He has never struck out more than a batter per inning, and with the introduction of HR issues – a 14% HR/FB rate and a 1.4 HR/9 – Delcarmen has been well below replacement level in 2010. Delcarmen was moderately productive earlier in his career, as he was worth 3.7 WAR from 2005-2009, but ZiPS doesn’t see him returning to that former glory, projecting only a 4.02 FIP, and it’s hard to imagine that Coors Field will help whatever is ailing him with regards to home runs.
The real story here, however, is the guy coming back to Boston. Balcom-Miller has had a fantastic season with Asheville in the Sally League, posting a 3.31 ERA in 108 innings backed up by a fantastic 117:19 K:BB ratio. That’s a 6.2 K/BB for a 21 year old in his second professional season. Baseball America said prior to the season that Balcom-Miller’s ceiling was as a “solid middle-of-the-rotation starter,” and one has to think that this season would only improve his stock.
The Rockies might need warm bodies, but that’s about all they will get out of Delcarmen. He no longer projects as a productive reliever. Meanwhile, the Rockies will send a very promising starting pitching prospect out of the system for what might be at best a minuscule increase in their playoff odds. It’s hard for me to classify this deal as anything less than an overreaction to the Rafael Betancourt injury by Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd, and the end result will be a similarly talented (if not worse) team in Colorado and a weakened farm system.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
fist pump!
CBM is not a reliever.
Yeah..thanks. He never said he was a reliever.
“Baseball America said prior to the season that Balcom-Miller’s ceiling was as a “solid middle-of-the-rotation starter,” and one has to think that this season would only improve his stock.”
You mean with the exception of the very first paragraph in the article?
They did just that today, acquiring Manny Delcarmen from the Boston Red Sox along with cash considerations (not Kevin Cash considerations) in exchange for minor league reliever Chris Balcom-Miller.
They have 6 games left with the Padres over the next two weeks including 3 this weekend (not to mention games against the Giants/Phillies who are wild card competition)… I’m sure the thinking is it’s now or never for this season, and given their track record, it’s not unreasonable to think they can finish strong and make it in. A guy in A ball is still a year or two away, so I doubt they’ll lose much sleep over it.
“I’m sure the thinking is it’s now or never for this season”
Most certainly not. To the contrary. The move was made to bolster the bullpen for the next two years. Balcom-Miller was at least fifth on the depth chart for pitching prospects (Matzek, Friedrich, Brothers, Bettis and potentially Nicasio and Tago). The Rockies dealt the lowest ceiling of their top pitching prospects.
Why would it matter where the guy is ranked in a team’s system? If he’s a solid prospect, which it looks like he is, then he’s a solid prospect. The 5th best prospect in COL system isn’t necessarily the 5th best prospect in another system, and admittedly, COL has a decent crop of arms on the way.
And Bettis is likely a reliever, so I’m not sure he belongs ahead of CBM.
For what it’s worth, Delcarmen has two more years of team control remaining after this one. Considering that and the fact that Delcarmen’s stuff is still pretty high-octane (and he will be moving to the NL), this move becomes more defensible.
Also, I believe that you’re overrating CBM a little bit (and I even really like him as a prospect) by simply looking at his numbers. His results outpace his stuff. I’m seeing a 4/5 ceiling on him with a great feel for pitching. Those types can be valuable for sure, but it’s unlikely that he ever starts for the Red Sox.
Even if CBM ends up in the bullpen, it’s hard for me to hate this move as a Red Sox fan. Odds look good this ends up a win.
I’m not saying it’s a bad move, or that the Red Sox won’t come out ahead. I’m just providing some reasons why the Rockies would have made this trade besides what the author writes here.
Cross posting my analysis from SoSH:
Balcom-Miller Breakdown.
Statistics: CBM has the exact combination of peripherals you like to see in a minor league pitcher. Excellent control that he’s maintained all year (every month his BB% has been between 4 and 5%), high K-rate with a moderate upward trend over the course of the season, and an extremely high GB rate. That said, Asheville is a Southern Atlantic League team, which means that individual pitching statistics aren’t as impressive as they’d be anywhere else (the SAL is a huge pitchers league). Asheville itself is one of the better hitting parks in the league, and CBM’s H/R splits show this (3.72 ERA at home, 2.98 away), however, as CBM’s peripherals are extremely similar that’s really nothing to worry about.
Stuff: Balcom-Miller has shown a four pitch repertoire this season, with a sinker, cutter, slider, and changeup. Of those two pitches, his sinker and slider appear to be his primary pitches, which no doubt explains his high groundball totals. While CBM does not have huge velocity (he operates in the 88-92 range), he combines strong command with good movement. While I’ve come across conflicting reports on the movement of his pitch, I think that’s due to people failing to differentiate his cutter and his sinker (some reports say his fastball shows plus horizontal movement with a little drop, others seem to indicate more of a pure sinker), but in any event almost all reports seem pretty positive about the pitch. It’d be nice if he could up the velocity, and given his frame (6-2, 190) I think that’s still possible. Regarding his other pitches, nothing I’ve read indicates the changeup to be anything more than a work in progress, but reports on the slider are pretty positive. Comes in the low 80s with good movement, and importantly he throws it out of the same slot as his fastball which adds to the deception of the pitch.
Mechanics: A wee bit jerky, and there’s a break in his motion that I’d like to see somewhat smoothed out if possible. CBM was an outstanding two-sport athlete in high school, which is something I really like to see in a pitcher (mainly as it suggests they may have the coordination to maintain a consistent delivery). Overall, I’m not a pitching mechanics expert, but from the video I’ve been looking at it looks like he’s got a little deception in his release, and his arm action is smooth. One thing that did stand out was the inconsistency in his leg kick, as on some pitches he’s got a really high leg kick going, while on others its a much more subdued motion. Definitely not a huge issue, but something that might merit a little work.
Overall: A nice pick up. I like the fastball/slider combo, I like the command, and there doesn’t seem to be any huge negatives with the kid. Sure the fastball could stand to pick up a little bit of velocity, but movement and the ability to locate can make even a slower fastball into a plus pitch. Obviously the big challenge will come in the next year or two as he advances into AA, as that will really determine how much he’s gotten by on pitchability, how much he can develop his changeup, and whether or not his raw stuff will be good enough to take him to the MLB. Worst case scenario, he could always be put in relief in the hopes that that gives his fastball a little bit more juice, and allows him to survive with just a fastball/slider combo.
I agree that it’s unlikely he will ever start more than a few games for the Red Sox, especially with the rotation tied up for the foreseeable future. I think his value to the Sox is as a future trading chip, packaged with others to get a stud player down the line, not unlike Justin Masterson.
Man I’m almost happy the Red Sox season is a washout now. We just dumped a disposable part and got a cheap #3 starter in a few years.
Let’s not get too excited.
This is a bit of an over-reaction. Balcom-Miller is an interesting prospect, but he is on the old side for the SAL, especially for a prospect, and does not have overwhelming stuff.
His stuff sounds like it’s good enough based on my reading today that if it plays up a bit as he develops, he could turn into a solid mid-rotation starter. But, his projection is probably more of a 7th/8th starter or mop up reliever in Boston, if it is that high. He was ranked Colorado’s 26th prospect last offseason by BA, and after a very strong season, is still a longshot to crack Boston’s top 30 this offseason. He’s a ton more than I expected to get back for a player that was going to get non-tendered in a couple months, and I am excited about his acquisition. But, this trade in no way changes how frustrating and disappointing this season has been.
The Red Sox spent $170M and will be playing golf in October, but hey, they traded for an ok prospect who might, if everything breaks right, fill the back of their rotation in 2014!!
“Delcarmen satisfies the Rockies needs in the sense that he has been a relief pitcher in the minor leagues before….”
Majors, too…
Alas, you forget how struggling pitchers from the AL East dominate when traded to the NL West. That’s what the Rockies are counting on. And giving up a guy who projects, key word, “projects” as a middle of the rotation SP’er in a few years is hardly a great loss when looking for immediate relief.
Unlike the Red Sox, some teams actually care enough to win now.
Also, MDC was a pretty darn good RP’er in 2007 and 2008 but was over worked in 2008 and has not been the same pitcher since. He does not strike out as many batters now, but he does not give up many hits. His problem has been the HR this year. He might be lightning in a bottle for the Rockies if he can keep the ball in the park at that altitude and is used wisely.
2 WS wins in the past decade isnt enough for the Red Sox?
This was a rebuilding year from the start and their FO was open about it. (Not a Sox fan but ripping them is a bit of BS).
Didn’t they take their payroll up about $30M from last year? How is that a rebuilding year?
“Unlike the Red Sox, some teams actually care enough to win now.”
LOL
MDC dropped off a cliff in 2009 and never looked back. And the worst move possible for any pitcher with a home run problem is moving them to Colorado. Basically, the Rockies are banking on the AL East->NL improvement.
And as a Red Sox fan, CBM my not be a top prospect, but he definitely is interesting. Those kind of peripherals show promise at the very least, and I’ve heard fairly good scouting reports. Seems like a good pickup for the Red Sox.
” And the worst move possible for any pitcher with a home run problem is moving them to Colorado. ”
Didn’t seem to be an issue for Jorge de la Rosa, Jason Hammel and Matt Belisle, all of whom served up a lot of home runs in their previous stops.
Don’t forget (the almighty) Jason Marquis!
What the Rockies are hoping for most of all is that a pitching coach with an excellent and current reputation for fixing flawed reclamation projects can fix this flawed reclamation project. The NL Worst isn’t, not any more.
Don’t forget that Delcarmen has the much needed playoff and big-game experience. He used to pitch against the Yankees, for the RED SOX. Now, that’s a rivalry!
Delcarmen is a non-factor for a team that wants to “win now” – especially for a team whose playoff hopes are only marginally better than the team from which MDC was acquired.
“He has never struck out more than a batter per inning…”
Hey, that’s not true. He struck out the side once in 2008!
It’s all about the HR rate for the most part and Andrew Fisher up above nailed it…The sample size for RP’s is so small that you can group together all of them in any year and around half of them will end up better the next. In many cases significantly better.
Delcarmen isn’t anymore dead than Belisle was two years ago. In fact, his track record is better. Maybe he won’t be any good anymore in the future but this analysis sure isn’t going to be the reason why. It simply isn’t very good due to the small sample size. Most of these RP’s need to be thought of like FanGraph’s tells us to think of UZR, and even then you are probably better off not making too many conclusive statements.
I’m reluctant to adopt the sports radio gung holier than thou attitude but occasionally, yes, infrequently, there’s something to such blather. And one of the standard maxims of sports radio is that the 9th inning is different. Gotta have that closer, that clutch guy to shut the door blah blah blah.
Only that whole worship of clutchiness thing really seems relevant when discussing Manny Delcarmen. For about 3 years, the Red Sox tried to spoon feed him up to higher leverage innings. And it never took. As soon as they started to count on MDC, he crapped the bed. One year, maybe it was 2008, through August, if you wanted to know how well he pitched all you had to know was how close the score was when he came into the game. Close game, and he allowed a .900 OPS against. 4 run lead for or against and he allowed a .600 OPS.
There was a statement in the papers from John Farrell that he and Francona have tried to get Delcarmen to fix a mechanical issue with his motion, his getting his body too far ahead of his arm in his pitching motion. But despite everyone seeming to know exactly what the problem is, Delcarmen never seems to quite fix it.
Good luck Colorado. He’s not a bad guy. He’s just a bad pitcher.