Ronald Acuña Jr. Is Toying With the Marlins

As baseball re-adjusts to the typical rigors of a 162-game marathon, the enormity of the season looms large. The rush of new beginnings has already subsided after cresting atop pomp, circumstance, and red, white, and blue bunting. Seven months of this stuff can take a toll on the mind, because even though the gatekeepers of fun want the players to act more robotic, they’re still hopelessly human.

To break up the monotony – to prevent the edges from blurring together – life needs texture. The smoothness of everyday things, people, and feelings must be offset by secondary and tertiary characters, those who remind us what it’s like to experience things in technicolor rather than dull gray. For most of us, it’s the fun extended family member who you only see every so often, or the friend of a friend who’s always good for a chuckle.

For Ronald Acuña Jr., it’s games against the Miami Marlins.

The Marlins occupy an interesting development arc when contrasted with Acuña’s ascendant career. While the Braves’ outfielder has been excellent since the moment he arrived in Atlanta, the Marlins spent the first few years of Acuña’s rise with hooks in their lips. In 2018, despite still clinging to J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro, and several other capable players, Miami finished 63-98, owners of the worst record in the National League. As the Marlins labored through the pollution of that campaign, Acuña’s Braves were on their way to their first division title in five years. The next year, Realmuto was gone, and so were the faintest hopes that the Marlins could escape the NL East’s all-encompassing net. The 2019 Marlins sank to 57-105, again the worst record in the senior circuit, while each of the other teams in their division won at least half of their games. One of those teams won the World Series that year. And while the Braves lost out in the Division Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, they took the division with 97 wins, with their 21-year-old wunderkind posting 5.6 WAR and falling just a few steals shy of a 40-40 season.

Acuña’s line first got tangled with Don Mattingly’s bunch in his 2018 rookie season. In his first 11 games versus the Fish, he had a 114 wRC+ and two home runs. Then, in the team’s mid-August series, he found another gear. On August 15, Acuña took his turn at bat to lead off the bottom of the first inning of the final game of a four-game set. Atlanta had won the first three games of the series quite handily, outscoring their Floridian foes 25-8, while Acuña went 8-for-13 with four home runs and nine RBI. Not only that, the man led off each game with a homer. That trio of games had been a bit of a coming out party for the vivacious Venezuelan. The day before, he followed his leadoff shot with another in the seventh for his first two-homer game in the majors, lifting the Braves 16 games above .500.

The Marlins, for some reason, were big mad.

Before most fans could even settle into their seats, Acuña got senselessly drilled by José Ureña’s first pitch, a 97-mph fastball with the settings turned to violent. After the game, Freddie Freeman called Ureña “completely classless.” Brian Snitker, immediately incensed, said that he wasn’t sure he’d “ever felt like that in a baseball uniform.” MLB deemed Ureña’s actions to be intentional, slapped a fine on him, and suspended him for six games. Meanwhile, Acuña got an X-ray on his elbow, found nothing troublesome, and lay in wait for the next time he crossed paths with the Marlins. That ended up being just eight days later, and Acuña responded as though he’d been storing up spiteful strength in the intervening days.

That colossal middle finger of a home run certainly sent a message to Miami, the Marlins franchise, and trophy fish everywhere. But it couldn’t have felt as satisfying as a long ball off Ureña would have. Fast forward to June 2019, and Acuña finally enjoyed that delicious flavor for the first time. I bet vengeful bat flips taste sweet and savory, like the perfect peanut butter and jelly.

The tired trope of the big swaggering kid picking on the shrimpy nerd got a bit of a re-write in 2020. The Marlins went from consecutive last-place finishers to surprise postseason crasher. But after upsetting the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, guess who was waiting for them in the NLDS, still wreaking havoc from the leadoff spot?

Atlanta speared the Marlins in three games to advance to the NLCS, and even though Ureña is no longer with Miami, Acuña wasted no time picking on his favorite organization when 2021 rolled around. He posted a triple, three walks, and two runs in the clubs’ first meeting, while still finding time for a bit of banter with Jazz Chisholm. Even foes can appreciate good hair, after all:

He came back with a single, a walk, and two more runs in the series’ second game. That would pale in comparison to his outburst on Wednesday night, however, when a pair of two-run dingers further twisted his cleat on Miami’s neck.

Thursday’s matinee brought yet another chain-jingling home run trot, the 20th he’s completed against the Marlins. That’s the thing with the Braves phenom. He’ll yuk it up with you on a Tuesday and rip your heart out by Thursday. Acuña now flexes a comical 192 wRC+ in 48 games against Miami, with a .328/.426/.709 line, a .465 wOBA, and those aforementioned 20 home runs.

Though the Braves have largely struggled in the season’s early going, Acuña sparks hope by simply showing up to the ballpark every day. He leads the National League in every major offensive category. He’s one of only two NL hitters to have already surpassed 1.0 WAR on the season (Justin Turner is the other). He looks miraculous in the Braves’ alternate throwback jerseys. But perhaps most importantly, he’s still finding time to clown on the Marlins, a team that gives his life joyous texture for all the world to see. As Chisholm knows, sometimes all you can do is tip your cap.





Matthew is a contributor at FanGraphs and a staff writer/podcast host at Lookout Landing. His previous work includes bylines at Baseball Prospectus, Riot Fest, and one-on-one interviews with Sue Bird, Megan Rapinoe, Brenden Dillon, David Fizdale, and several minor league players. He goes by the full Matthew, and it's pronounced RAW-berson.

13 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
sadtrombonemember
3 years ago

Ronald Acuna Jr has hit 7 home runs in 60 PAs. At this pace, he would hit 70 or 71 home runs over a 600 PA season, and put up approximately 15 fWAR.

In all of this, the Braves have somehow managed to only win 5 of their first 8 games…because despite having the hottest player in baseball not named Byron Buxton, their wRC+ is still below 100.

dukewinslowmember
3 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It’s interesting, I think the Braves give up too much offensively by having pache and inciarte in center field. A side effect of that is it suppresses Acuna’s WAR (his UZR in center is good enough to stick there, but he gets crushed for some reason when he moves to the corners- maybe Pache and Inciarte take balls away?). I dunno if it fixes the offense, but surely they could use another decent bat in the lineup who they could hide in the corners.

kula
3 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

“I think the Braves give up too much offensively” Not really, there’s just been a lot of short-sample shenanigans. According to statcast Acuna’s defence in the corner has been good (he has a good added catch percentage). The only bad thing I have seen so far is that his jumps have been bad so far.

dukewinslowmember
3 years ago
Reply to  kula

I’m willing to bet his negative defensive value is small sample weirdness. I’m curious what the opportunity cost of another decent bat is, though.

sadtrombonemember
3 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

Amazingly, Inciarte is running a .353 OBP, making him not totally useless (although it looks like he hasn’t done much more than hit singles). Pache, on the other hand, has been (predictably) way overmatched. To some extent, it was always going to be a gamble relying on Pache and Riley because there wasn’t really anything that suggested they would be able to hit major league pitching at a passable level but they’re not even in “good for a pitcher” territory now, which I think most people would have pegged as the low-end outcome.

On top of that Freeman has been only okay and Ozuna has been real, real bad; d’Arnaud has struck out seven times more than he’s walked and Dansby Swanson has struck out eight times more than he’s walked. There’s a lot of season left and there’s really no reason to think everyone will be this bad going forward (especially Ozuna and Albies) but so far Acuna has got to be wondering where everyone else is.

PhilBrickmamember
3 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Interestingly, Riley at least looked to be having some good at-bats during the first 5 games or so of the season; he seemed to be just having some bad BABIP luck (like the whole team was having, really). But right after that, it just looks like things cratered.

Also interesting: the Statcast data on Savant shows his xBA and xSLG as .218 and .328, respectively, while the Statcast data on his FG page shows (at least for me) figures of .231 and .342. Obviously, neither is great, though the latter is a tad bit better. Regardless, all of his percentile rankings, outside of max exit velocity and hard hit percentage, are terrible.

Based on the the Statcast pitch distribution he’s seen this year, the problem is most obviously fastballs, which seems mind-boggling, since those are usually pitches that historically, he’s pummeled. On fastballs, he’s gone from a SLG of .352 last year to .160 this year, and a wOBA of .300 to .165. Further, his EV on fastballs is down by over 4 mph year-over-year, and his whiff percentage has gone up by 9.0%. At the same time, his performance via those metrics on offspeed pitches has improved. His performance on breaking pitches, as one might expect knowing his history so far, has also been terrible, and dropped off precipitously from last year.

I’m obviously no expert, but it would seem that in trying to fix his issues with recognition of offspeed and breaking pitches (which, at least on the latter, he seemed to find some comfortability with last year), he’s suffered in the one ability that he came to the majors with that was foundationally solid, which was his ability to absolutely punish fastballs. Hopefully he can turn that around by just mentally recalibrating somewhat.

As for Inciarte, that .353 OBP feels like it will also vanish soon, since he’s never been a guy to take his walks. But as a Braves fan, I hope it lasts.

Anon21member
3 years ago
Reply to  PhilBrickma

Riley has struggled against the hardest fastballs (see here: https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/3/31/22339416/one-thing-to-watch-position-players-atlanta-braves-opening-day-roster ), so maybe he’s just getting more high heat than he’s used to.