RosterResource Chat – 1/29/26

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Chat! Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in 2 weeks and we’ll have games in about 3 weeks!

Jon continues to put his new skills to work by adding 2025 WAR and 2026 projected WAR to our Transaction Tracker …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/offseason-tracker

And more cool stuff is on the way.

Here we go …

Raully: What are possible landing spots for Luis Arraez, Austin Hays and Luis Rengifo?

Jon Becker: I’ve been banging the “Rockies should sign Arraez” drum literally all offseason (and our Davy Andrews wrote about it last week!) so I’ll stick with that, especially because DePodesta said they could still be in the market for a 1B after acquiring Julien. As for Hays, going back to Cincinnati seems like a decent fit, he’d get more regular playing time there than he would with, say, the Mets, who have reported interest in him but could reduce him to a platoon role as soon as Benge is up (which could be as soon as Opening Day). Rengifo fits just about anywhere because of his versatility but I’ll throw the Rangers out there, why not.

Jason Martinez: I’ll add my two cents because I was the “Rockies should sign Arraez” guy before it was cool, mostly because that spacious OF is perfect for him. Unlike Petco Park, which might be the worst fit for him. With that said, I think he’d hit .340+ for the Dbacks. And he’s a fit there.

Ben: What do you think daulton varsho PT looks like this season? The projections seem to have his as an everyday CF but he was mostly platooned last year, with so many guys there I’m curious what you think that outfield alignment usually looks like.

Jason Martinez: I think I have him at around 85% right now. So, not a straight platoon but I think they’ll pick their spots with him. He’s been good vs LHP (113 wRC+ from 2023-25) and probably a better offensive option than Myles Straw on most days vs LHP.

They were cautious with him last season due to the injuries. While I think that could still be the case because the season (regular and post-season) is so long, he’s a free agent after 2026 so I think they will be less cautious.

Matt: Noticed Anthony Rendon’s full contract is still listed on the Angels payroll page despite reporting that it is spread out across the next 5 years. Is RR waiting on further confirmation before adjusting that, or how does that work on your end?

Jon Becker: We don’t show deferrals on the payroll page (yet 👀, and questions like these are a reason why my latest big project is having more descriptive payroll information), just the salary that’s allocated to each year. There should be a difference to the AAV depending on how it’s structured but it’s pretty minimal and I haven’t seen the exact information yet. The Angels are doing the deferrals much less for CBT reasons and much more for actual cash flow reasons, though it doesn’t look as if they’re reallocating that money at all.

Ozzie: What are the odds De Vries starts the season on the ML roster?

Jason Martinez: Highly unlikely. They’re set at 2B/SS for now with McNeil and Wilson, although there is a path for De Vries to debut at some point in 2026 as a 19-year-old.

Assuming he continues to hit in the upper minors and forces his way into the picture, the A’s still need to figure out if he is going to be their SS or if he will play 2B or 3B. Wilson’s defensive metrics were really bad last season so my guess is that he could move to 2B when De Vries is ready. But I also know that De Vries has a lot of work to do at SS and hasn’t played any other positions.

Steve: Wondering how you guys are thinking about Marcelo Mayer’s playing time if the SOX sign Suarez.  Do you think he gets 400+ ABs as a strong-side platoon with Romy or does he get sent back to AAA?

Jon Becker: Definitely the former assuming his wrist feels fine in spring training. I wouldn’t discount Campbell’s chances of winning 2B in such a scenario but a Mayer/Romy platoon just makes a lot of sense. Romy hits the crap out of the ball and mashes lefties, he should fill the Refsnyder role but with a lot more versatility.

Astros: Who is the astros opening day LF? Do you still see Cole winning out?

Jason Martinez: At this point, it’s Sanchez or Cole vs RHP (not sure who they’d prefer; both can play either LF or RF) and I have Yordan Alvarez there vs LHP. Not sure how often they want him out there. Sounds like as little as possible but there aren’t many other options and Isaac Paredes will DH vs LHP unless one of the infielders gets a day off.

Of course, that’s just based on their current weird roster construction. If they carry Zach Dezenzo on the roster, that would give them another corner OF to play vs LHP with Cam Smith playing RF. But I also don’t know if it makes much sense to carry Smith on the roster unless he’s playing regularly.

My guess is that the roster will change before Opening Day.

Hazmat Corntail: Boyle and Henderson are currently listed as SP5’s and Messick is slated for the minors. I may have to sacrifice one when rosters are finalized, how staring are the odds on those holding going into April?

Jon Becker: Despite Messick being the one in the minors, I think they all have roughly equal odds of getting the SP5 spot because all three teams have pretty open competitions there — any combination of the three winning that job vs. starting in the minors wouldn’t really surprise me. I think Boyle is on the thinnest ice no matter whether he wins a job or not because his control can just completely desert him at times and Seymour and Rock both looked good last year. Henderson will face competition from Sproat, too.

Guest: Why does escarra not have more value (to at least bring back a decent RP)

Jason Martinez: I was interested in finding out how much trade value he had because I thought he’d be a perfect fit with the Padres as a LHH complement to Freddy Fermin.

But I actually think the Yankees value him greatly right now as their backup catcher because they’re relying on Ben Rice to be an impact bat and probably don’t want him catching very often (if at all). There are still a few veteran backups available (Christian Vazquez, Mitch Garver) so I guess it’s still a possibility. But probably not worth trading him unless he could bring a high-leverage RP back in return.

clydethedog: Odds Carson Benge has a spot on the opening day roster?

Jon Becker: Unless they add someone like Austin Hays to challenge him more directly, maybe 75%+? That sounds really high considering his Triple-A performance but the underlying metrics like strikeout and walk and hard-hit rates were apparently no different, and Tyrone Taylor isn’t really a starting-caliber OF. So the only non-Benge lane is Baty in LF and Vientos at DH, and that’s sacrificing something on defense.

Doc: I see Garrett Mitchell in the Brewers starting lineup.  Is there an update on his recovery from surgery?

Jason Martinez: Expectation is that he’ll have a normal spring. I had Bauers in there for a while (Frelick in CF, Bauers in LF vs RHP) since he was a lineup regular to end the season and Mitchell has missed so much time. But one of the Brewers’ beat reporters suggested that Mitchell would be their starting CF and I trust beat reporters to have a good sense on this stuff.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Rockies moves so far seem….competent? What? Is this beginners luck or the new normal?

Jon Becker: Yeah, I broadly like their offseason. Don’t think Lorenzen is a great fit there but also: what starting pitcher would be? Castro is a fine add that they can trade at any point and he’s not going to block anyone since he can play all over the place. What I’ve really liked is the bottom-of-the-roster churn: taking fliers on guys like Julien, Ohl, Troy Johnston, McCarthy, Petit is exactly what a team in their position should be doing.

Ozzie: You have Taylor Walls projected to start at SS for the Rays. What has you putting him over Carson Williams?

Jason Martinez: Partly because the Rays really love Taylor Walls, as evidenced by how often he plays despite not being able to hit. And partly because Williams was really bad (.573 OPS, 6 BB, 44 K) in his 106 PA after getting called up. He’ll get a chance to win the spot but I’m assuming they’ll play it safe and make sure he’s better prepared when he gets his next call.

Vince: Do you think the Giants will platoon Gilbert and Ramos?  Or Lee and Ramos?

Jon Becker: Don’t think so, at least not to start. Ramos and Lee were both good enough last season to be full-timers, so it’ll just be Bader in center with Ramos and Lee in the corners (presumably Lee in right). I know Matos is out of options but he just hasn’t hit and he’s graduated from “super young, cut him some slack!” to “he’s 24 now, the patience can’t be endless.”

Kate: How do you all think DH PT gets divvied up for the Twins?  Cartini isn’t really going to play everyday is he?

Jason Martinez: I have Larnach, Bell, and Jeffers getting most of the at-bats at the DH spot, although they’re all listed at their position (LF, 1B, C) in the “go-to lineup”. Caratini will play more than a normal backup because he can hit and he can play 1B. And he’s making $7MM per season. That’s not what a rebuilding team pays a backup catcher so I have him in the starting lineup for now.

This is the current projected PT breakdown …

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8

Trading Julien cleared some things up and I think they could do the same with Larnach or Outman. In any case, there are a lot of young players who need to audition and get at-bats so the DH should be ever-changing.

Kate: What are the odds Goldy finds something resembling an everyday role after signing?

Jon Becker: Depends what your definition of “something resembling” is but I don’t think very likely. He was bad against righties and actually wasn’t very good against lefties either after the first six weeks or so, so I think he’ll have to settle for a platoon role. Maybe he ends up in something like the late-career-Pujols usage plan of facing all lefties and worse righties.

Snakes: Does Jordan Lawlar get 450 AB’s?

Jason Martinez: Barring an injury to Arenado, Perdomo, or Marte, Lawlar’s only path to playing time is in the OF. And it sounds like they’re going to give him a shot. But not sure that’s happening as early as Opening Day. Alek Thomas is a great defender who can’t hit. The combination of him having a really bad offensive season and Lawlar showing that he can be at least an adequate CF would likely open the door for him to get a chance. But early enough for him to get 450 PA? I doubt it.

Blind mice: Does Zach Maxwell break camp in the Reds bullpen?

Jon Becker: Injuries happen of course but it’s an uphill battle going into camp. Pagán, Santillan, Ashcraft, Burke, Johnson, Ferguson are locks for six of the eight spots. Sam Moll is out of options so he has a good shot for the seventh. And then you’ve got at least Connor Phillips ahead of Maxwell, and perhaps Luis Mey as well.

Doc Estes: Janson Junk is currently reflected as the fifth starter in Miami.  What percentage chance would you give both Tommy White and Robbie Snelling getting the spot out of camp instead of Junk?

Jason Martinez: I’d say Snelling 40% and White 5%.

Snelling had around 135 IP last season so I can see him getting 150-160 IP/25-28 starts between MLB/AAA. So it can happen but probably not likely. White pitched less than 100 innings last season so they’ll likely put strict limits on his workload. Doesn’t mean he won’t pitch in the majors. Just not likely early in the season. Good chance he could hold his own in the majors now and dominate on occasion. But I think they’ll be cautious with him and rely on guys like Junk/Gusto/Mazur to give them quality innings early in the season. Junk earned the opportunity to continue starting and he can easily slide to the bullpen when necessary.

Jonny: Does Victor Robles play everyday ?

Jon Becker: I think to start, yeah, he’s the starting RF. Canzone isn’t a great OF and it’s not like they don’t really have top prospects banging down the door for Robles’ job. Montes is probably late season if at all this year.

Ethan: With the way Framber Valdez’s market or lack thereof, has materialized, was wondering if you guys think a 2/$75 deal with the Mets, who would then trade Peterson is good baseball process.

Jason Martinez: Sure. That’s a good plan. Only issue would possibly be that Peterson at $8.1MM for 1 year becomes less of a bargain this late in the offseason with so many good SP still available as free agents and likely not getting much more $ than that. For example, a team might have to weigh signing Zack Littell or Jose Quintana at $10MM/season or trading something of value for Peterson.

With that said, I think there are enough teams in need of SP that they could find a really good deal.

Jimmy: Thoughts on Steven Matz for the Rays rotation over Ian Seymour?

Jon Becker: I think when you’re the Rays giving the guy 2y/$15M, he’s probably a starter at least at the outset despite mostly being a reliever last year. He was allergic to walks and obviously has plenty of experience as a starter so I think he’s got that spot almost 100% locked down.

Beano: I keep reading about Sal Stewart as a good sneaky 3b option but he isn’t eligible there. And, as I’ve read, he will be at the DH position. Does he gain 3b early or at all this season?

Jason Martinez: That’s a tough one. Sounds like 1B/DH is the expectation for Stewart. He’s there for his bat and I’m not sure how much the Reds value him defensively at 3B.

If the best defensive 3B in baseball gets a day off, do you replace him with a below-average defender? As currently constructed, my guess is that Stewart would play 3B whenever Ke’Bryan Hayes is out of the lineup. But I also think there’s a good chance the Opening Day roster will include someone else who will play 3B when Hayes sits. That player just hasn’t been signed yet.

Big Buxton: Thoughts on MN’s catching situation after the Caratini signing? Is a Ryan Jeffers trade inbound in your opinion, either soon or at the deadline? Jeffers and Caratini can both hit a bit but are largely C/DH only, and Alex Jackson is really a depth C defender.

Jon Becker: I could certainly see them going with three catchers knowing that Caratini can also play 1B and there’s decent versatility elsewhere on the roster. Makes it easier to DH Caratini or Jeffers and be able to PH for Jackson if he’s the one catching in that game.

daro: so Triston Casas will start the year in AAA even if he is healthy? Red Sox has real log jams in the OF and 1b/DH. Does he needs a trade to get decent ABs?

Jason Martinez: There aren’t even any DH at-bats available for Yoshida so Casas isn’t making the Opening Day roster barring an injury (or three) or a trade (or two). That was a pretty serious injury so it will be easy enough to ramp him up slowly, place him on the IL, and then send him on a rehab assignment. That will allow them to hold off on officially optioning him to AAA for at least a few weeks after the season begins. Things can change quickly but that’s likely what will happen (as things currently stand).

Justin: Where do you think Eugenio Suarez ends up.  Sea, Bos, or Pit i guess?

Jon Becker: Yeah, one of those three, though I think Seattle would surprise me a lot more than the other two. Pittsburgh so badly needs RHH power but Boston should have a lot more money to spend and are a more obvious contender. Will be interesting to see if he even gets a multi-year deal at this point.

Bryan Ramos: So who do you think should pick me up.  Red Sox and Angels like ex-White Sox (Romy and Yoan). Nationals and Rockies could use 3B help. (I am destined to go back to Charlotte).

Jason Martinez: Wouldn’t surprise me if he clears waivers. He’s out of options, unproven, and lacks defensive versatility so I doubt he’d land anywhere else but one of the rebuilding teams. Nationals and Rockies probably could give him at-bats at 3B/1B/DH. Angels could possibly use him as a platoon partner with Moncada.

GB: How is the dodgers payroll net negative from last year?

Jon Becker: Conforto, Yates, Kershaw, Enrique Hernández, Kopech hitting FA is a pretty significant amount of money, Díaz’s deal is backloaded so he basically only replaces Conforto’s salary, and the way MLB’s accounting works is such that Tucker counts for $33M this year and $87M(!) in 2027 because even though he gets the signing bonus this year, it’s prorated over the two guaranteed years before the first opt out. Another question that serves as a good example of why I’m working on more granular/easier to read payroll data on the pages!

Vic: Does Jax elite skills make him the Rays closer ?

Jason Martinez: That and his strong finish to the season (10 IP, 0 R, 12 K) make him the most likely to become the team’s primary closer. For now, I’m listing them as a committee. Jax was pretty shaky after they acquired him so I think they’ll let things play out early in the season and allow Kevin Cash to determine if someone becomes the “closer” at some point.

DUBLDicer14: Does Jordan Montgomery land in Milwaukee?  When will he be ready to go.  Also curious about some others returning from a season off – Patrick Sandoval and Joe Musgrove.

Jon Becker: I could see Montgomery going just about anywhere for a really cheap deal or even MiLB deal — he won’t quite be ready to start the season since his Tommy John was right at the end of spring training last year and almost nobody comes back in the minimum 12 months. Musgrove says he’s 100% ready to go and the Red Sox will probably want to see how Sandoval looks in spring training before deciding anything with him. Could see him traded away late in spring training he’s healthy.

Chris: If by some chance Judge and Stanton and the other OFs stay healthy, isnt it best to keep Jasson and Jones getting ABs in AAA and have a real fourth OF like say Grichuk?

Jason Martinez: 100%. Tough to send a guy back to AAA after spending a full season in the majors and having a decent amount of success but he’s not a great fit in his current projected role. If he was a plus defender and/or had good numbers vs LHP, you could make an argument for keeping him. But guys like Grichuk/Hays/Andujar are much better fits in that role.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us! We’ll be back next Thursday.