RosterResource Chat – 1/8/26

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Just over a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. And still a lot of good free agents yet to sign and potential trades that could happen. Lots to discuss. Here we go …

Ethan: If you’re the Mets- would you prefer trading for Gore or Peralta?

Jon Becker: I think Gore’s got ridiculously high potential, and the Nationals probably should be asking whatever huge price they’re putting on him. That said, if I’m the Mets specifically, I think I’m more interested in Peralta. One year of control compared to two means he’d cost significantly less, and Peralta’s been a lot more durable than Gore. More than anything, that’s what that rotation really needs after they all faded hard down the stretch.

JT: Is Tyler O’Neill really going to be on the bench in Baltimore?

Jason Martinez: Depends on how you define “bench”. For my “projected Opening Day Roster vs RHP”, he’s on the bench listed as a platoon vs LHP because Beavers (RF) was so good last season and because Basallo’s (DH) upside is so high. Those are the two guys playing ahead of him right now from that “Opening Day lineup” perspective.

But, in reality, they have a group of players who they’ll mix and match so my expectation is O’Neill would always play vs LHP and his starts vs RHP would depend on match-up and who’s hot/not. I have him projected for 400 PA, which is more than he usually has.

JT: How much will Sean Murphy play in Atlanta? Cant imagine them giving him 18 M a year to ride pine half the time

Jon Becker: Right now we effectively have him in a platoon with Yastrzemski, with Profar sliding from DH to LF against LHP and Baldwin and Murphy splitting DH and C against LHP. Murphy is making a lot of money but it’s a sunk cost: he’s getting the money regardless, so they need to put the best team out there no matter how much someone’s making. That’s going to mean playing Baldwin as much as possible.

Big Buxton: I’m still working my way through the slew of all the 40-man adds from before the Rule 5 draft. Any in particular that caught your eye as surprising?

Jason Martinez: Not really anything that would surprise me as far as players being added to the 40-man. It’s more info-gathering at that point, giving an indication that a team really likes that player.

In regards to the actual draft, I think Daniel Susac being drafted was a bit of a surprise. Giants don’t really need a backup because Bailey plays so often so they’re the team that could make it work. But carrying a rookie backup catcher will be tough. If he holds his own and provides value, I guess I’d be surprised that the A’s didn’t protect him. But they have Langeliers for at least 3 more seasons so it’s still pretty low risk to not protect a close-to-MLB-ready catcher.

Drew: Piveta, Laureano, and Morejon for Tomg, Sproat, and Williams.  Solves both teams primary issues.  Thoughts?

Jon Becker: Way, way too much for the Mets to give up, I think. Pivetta’s a rental unless he gets hurt or pitches so badly that he won’t opt out, in which case the Mets are stuck paying a lot of money, and Morejon and Laureano are true rentals. I don’t see three top 100 prospects being worth three rentals, as good as they all are.

Greg: Pirates roster has been sitting at 41 since the O’Hearn agreement on December 23rd (O’Hearn’s wife had a baby Dec 27th and presumably he hasn’t traveled for his physical yet and thus the signing hasn’t been made official).

Is this the longest gap between agreement and official signing that you can remember? Or is this not all that out of the ordinary?

Jason Martinez: I wouldn’t remember if it’s the longest — probably not — but they can drag on for one reason or another. Even when it’s not during the holidays. No expectation that it won’t become official soon, as well as a bunch of players that have been in DFA limbo since end of December.

Bryce Harper: If I accepted the reported 4 year $180 million offer from LA would I have earned more than the 13 year $330 million contract I signed with Philly?

Jon Becker: The question here is basically “would Bryce Harper have beaten a nine year, $150 million contract entering 2023, his age-30 season?” If we assume everything else goes the same — exact same performance, exact same Tommy John surgery — I don’t think Harper is signing a long-term deal right away, especially since he missed the start of 2023, too. What I am almost certain is true is that he’d have earned more than $330 million over 13 years if it was multiple contracts, whether that’s two or three (he’d probably be taking a pillow deal coming off TJ). But Harper was aware right from the start that he was probably leaving money on the table to be with one team for the rest of his career; I think he just got exhausted by all the rumors, and he just wanted to settle somewhere. Of course, he also could’ve signed the $180M deal and had some career-ending injury during it.

Kate: What do you think the odds are that Jake Latz actually starts the year with a rotation spot?

Jason Martinez: Pretty high, in my opinion. If they were to add another SP, there’s a good chance that I’d probably move Kumar Rocker to AAA and leave Latz in the No. 5 spot. He was really good when he started last season so they’d probably want to keep him stretched out and also get a longer look at him in that role before Cody Bradford (or Rocker, if he starts in AAA) is ready to join the rotation.

Best-case in 2026 is that he’s a versatile guy who can be a spot starter and also help in a high-leverage relief role once the rotation is in good enough shape without him. Easier to go from SP to bullpen rather than the other way around, which is why I’d expect him to begin in the rotation.

Bucco Bats: I think we can all agree that the Pirates have done some good things this offseason, and that these are things they probably could’ve done any offseason over the past five, but alas. There’s still a giant hole at 3B where Jared Triolo can play defense, but can’t hit righties at all. Is it crazy to think that with, say, Yoan Moncada as a platoon partner (125 wRC+ against righties last year), that this could be a position of strength for them?

Jon Becker: I’d love for them to sign Eugenio Suárez and really beef up the middle of the lineup in a way that Moncada probably wouldn’t, but I’ll also fully acknowledge that Suárez comes with a lot of risk and won’t come cheap. So, yeah, sure, I think a Moncada/Triolo platoon could be pretty good if Moncada can stay some semblance of healthy.

Jeff Nold: These chats brighten the dark winter days, even when, in San Diego, the actual days are mostly bright and clear. Still, I’m anxious about my beloved Padres. How does a ~220M roster feel so thin? Am I just an ingrate, given 4 playoff appearances in 6 years, an unparalleled rate of success for this franchise?

Jason Martinez: I’m with you on this, Jeff. I’ve been a fan for more than 40 years so it’s easy for me to remind myself of a bad period. But still necessary since the expectations are so much higher these days. But I only have to think back to 2020 to remember how thin the pitching staff was after a 60-game season. One of the most exciting lineups in Padres’ history and shutdown bullpen but 0 trustworthy starting pitchers. The other 2 playoff seasons (2005-2006) during the Petco era were similar. Not enough starting pitching.

Having at least 3 legit SP in every season since 2021 is the biggest reason they are perennial World Series contenders and they still have King-Musgrove-Pivetta lined up for 2026. So I’m hopeful but they need at least 1 more SP to rely on for quality innings. Pretty sure that’s the priority right now and 1B/DH is going to end up being a bounce-back candidate who won’t cost a lot.

Big Christmas: Does a waiver claim on J. Noel make sense for the Nationals to stick at 1B? He’s probably better than their current plan of seeing who sucks the least among Chaparro/Bernabel/Mervis.

Jon Becker: If they had space on the 40-man, I’d say absolutely. But with a full 40 as of right now, I don’t know that they view Noel as a better fit than someone else on the 40-man who could end up being claimed by another team instead of getting snuck through waivers. That said, I believe it was reported a month ago that Sauryn Lao, currently on the 40-man, was working out a deal to go play in Japan. But there’s nothing official there yet, and they’re not going to release him unless they’re sure he’s getting that opportunity, and that might not time up with Noel’s DFA window.

Hazmat Corntail: How badly does the Okamoto signing hit Barger’s projected PA’s? I went into the offseason t

Jason Martinez: As far as projections, not much. It was mostly Lukes who lost projected plate appearances and I still have him with 300+. I think they like Lukes more than anyone in the No. 2 spot because he doesn’t strike out but he also struggled badly in the 2nd half while Barger looked like a future star during the post-season.

Adding Okamoto to the mix, however, will affect mostly everyone to some extent because they’ll mix and match a lot and go with the hot hand.

wheelhouse: t/f yankees should have non-tendered volpe if they’re gonna act broke

Jon Becker: False, they should not have non-tendered Volpe. But I gotta say, I don’t really get the narrative that the Yankees have acted broke this offseason. It’s not like every big free agent has signed elsewhere; they’ve reportedly got plenty of interest in Bellinger and Bichette, and whether they make a big signing on January 8th or 18th or 28th doesn’t really matter as long as they do something. If they don’t do anything of significance and their payroll stays ~$35M under what it was last season, sure, but I think it’s far too early for declarations when so many great FA are still unsigned.

Simpson: Why is Chandler Simpson seen as a platton player? I get that his defense isn’t great and he has no power, but my goodness. He hits in the .290s regardless of lefty-righty, he gets on base, and he runs.

E: Wondering why you have Chandler Simpson listed as a platoon guy. He doesn’t seem to have a platoon issue. Josh Lowe and Cedric Mullins seem like the more likely L vs L platoon guys, no?

Jason Martinez: I don’t think we even know if he’ll be starting vs RHP or on the MLB roster at this point. So whether he starts vs LHP (and whether he can hit LHP at all) isn’t the important question (at least not yet). It’s not just the lack of power or questionable defense. It’s that he doesn’t walk very often (5% BB rate between MLB/AAA) so he’s almost completely reliant on singles. The speed helps a lot in that aspect, unlike Luis Arraez.

Having someone like Jake Fraley (good enough to start if necessary, but won’t block a young player from getting a chance) on the roster, in my opinion, is an indication that they’re going to give Simpson a good shot but ready to move on (at least temporarily) if he struggles to make an impact.

Dan S.: Does the slightly lower than projected salary and a cheap option make Ryan Mountcastle attractive to a team in need of a RH bat who thinks they can get him back to being a productive regular again?

Jon Becker: I don’t think his exact arbitration-year salary would’ve mattered much in either direction, like I don’t think teams would’ve been turned off by him because he settled for the MLBTR projection of $7.8M instead of the $7.687M he actually did. What I do think matters is that the Orioles got that club option for $7.5M to cover his first free agent year, which really increases his trade value to a team that can actually give him playing time and hope he mashes. If he doesn’t, they can just decline the option. Whether the option makes the Orioles more or less likely to keep him, though, I don’t know.

Guest: Do you think the Nats appoint a closer or just go by committee of the group of guys there?

Jason Martinez: Unless they signed someone like Seranthony Dominguez or maybe Tyler Kinley, I’d be surprised if they named a closer before Opening Day. As of now, they have two candidates (Beeter, Henry) who did pretty well in high-leverage at the end of the season and have the ability to close out games. But neither is proven and both have very high BB rates. Maybe there’s a surprise candidate or two who could emerge in Spring Training. They have a lot of SP depth so maybe someone gets a chance from that group. Not a great situation at this point but the new front office doesn’t seem too focused on the 2026 roster.

g4: For a team needing depth at 2B/3B, slight emphasis on bat, how do you rank the following free agents: R. Urias, Castro, Rengifo?

Jon Becker: Rengifo, Castro, Urías. I think with depth you can chase upside a little bit and Rengifo and Castro have both shown long runs of excellence in the recent past. Urías is the safest option, though, and the best glove.

Jemccla: How many innings will SGL pitch in Detroit this year? Does he have a chance to crack the opening day rotation, or will he serve more as a swingman/6th starter/minor league depth?

Jason Martinez: It’s a long season and the Tigers are preparing accordingly. Skubal-Flaherty-Mize are locked into the rotation while Reese Olson, Drew Anderson, Keider Montero, Troy Melton, and Sawyer-Gipson Long are the candidates for the No. 4/5 spots. That’s really good depth, which will be important. Expect injuries to occur so whoever begins in AAA should still expect to make a lot of starts in the majors.  

Anderson could move to the bullpen if necessary and the other 4 have MiLB options. If I had to guess, SGL will make 10-15 starts and also get a look out of the ‘pen at some point.

Marjinwalker: To me, I think it’s odd that the O’s couldn’t have offered a better package (beginning with Mayo) for Cabrera than what the cubs got him for. Do ya’ll agree?

Jon Becker: Without knowing what the O’s offered, I can’t say that they didn’t offer a better package than what the Cubs offered to get a deal done, at least as an outsider. It’s really easy from the outside to look at prospect rankings and form our own opinions about better and worse packages, but that doesn’t always line up with what the Marlins may have wanted. Even if you or I like Mayo more than Caissie, that doesn’t mean the Marlins did, so sometimes you just have a player a team really wants even if the overall package doesn’t seem great.

Barold Bondsworth: Is the Giants’ current Gilbert/Matos platoon in RF the bleakest position player plan for any team nominally trying to win?

Jason Martinez: I’m sure there’s worse but it’s a pretty clear need and my expectation is that they would add an everyday RF. Even if it’s a decent LHH to to play vs RHP with Matos playing vs LHP. Gilbert had some fun highlights as a rookie but he really struggled at the plate. Biggest question is whether they’re aiming high (Bellinger or Tucker) or would they look at the next tier (not many good options) or focus on the trade market.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. We’ll be back next Thursday. Thanks for joining us!