RosterResource Chat – 2/5/26

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Last one before pitchers and catchers begin to report to Spring Training. Offseason is almost done, although I still think they’ll be another 10-20 MLB deals and hoping for 1-2 more big trades.

Here we go …

Pitchers: Which of these pitchers—most of whom had only partial seasons or were partly injured—are locks for their teams’ starting rotations: Ian Seymour, Cristian Javier, Stephen Kolek, Troy Melton, Jack Perkins, Reid Detmers. Thanks.

Jon Becker: Just Detmers and Javier. The other four are somewhere between fifth and seventh-ish in their team’s SP pecking order, so not only are they not locks for spots, they might need an injury or two just to be projected for one at any point in spring training.

Bud: Are positions listed on roster resource based on what you think the opening day lineup is? How the majority of playing time shakes out? What the team’s “ideal” lineup is? Something else? For example, if the Cards make it clear in spring that Herrera is able to catch and he will catch at least some of the time, do you make him the starting C?

Jason Martinez: It is specific to Opening Day if a RHP is on the mound. You can view a projected lineup vs LHP on our platoons page … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/padres

Viewing the projected playing time % together with the Opening Day projection, which you can see on the RR pages and a few others, including here … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=29 … is probably going to give you the best sense of an overall general state of a roster.

For Herrera, I think he’ll be the Opening Day DH no matter what so he’ll be listed as DH. If there is any indication that he’d be the starting catcher, I’d make the change. If he was ever listed on the bench for any reason, he’d be listed as C or C/OF (not sure he’ll continue to get time in the OF). But all that stuff is updated regularly as news comes out or lineups posted.

Ryan: Arizona seems to have a glut of MLB-ready or close middle infield types – Blaze, Lawlar, Troy, Tawa(?) – with both 2B and SS locked down for the foreseeable future. Are they going to regret not moving some of those guys for pitching or outfield help this offseason? Or is that something you could still see happening?

Jon Becker: I could still see it happening, sure. Trades in spring training still happen, and the Diamondbacks haven’t done enough to build SP depth this offseason, IMO. Just saw that Burnes hasn’t had setbacks and is aiming for June but I’m just really not sure how well Soroka will hold up or what the plan is with that bullpen.

Dan Norman Lear: Waldrep is listed as the Barves’ 5th SP, which makes sense in terms of talent. With his options remaining, I guess the question is, how likely is that to hold up?

Jason Martinez: This one is probably top 3 of roster projections that I’ve almost changed based on beat reporter and public opinion but this is where I’m at right now …

1) Waldrep was great at the end of the season. With so many question marks for other options, I just left him there to begin the offseason. Seemed like he made clear he was MLB-ready.
2) Braves seem likely to add another SP. There are a lot of good ones remaining.
3) Grant Holmes would be in the rotation if there were no concerns regarding his elbow. But the rest/rehab route doesn’t have a high likelihood for success. Seems like the bullpen is where he’d have the best chance to stay healthy.
4) Elder is still on the team so I imagine they could just give him the No. 5 spot to begin the season to avoid losing him on waivers.

My guess is they sign another starter and Waldrep begins in AAA.

NFP: I’ve always looked at the 26-man payroll (or 40-man, usually the same because the excess 14 guys aren’t being paid much) to note a team’s budget. I’ve also always seen a CB-tax 40 man figure that’s usually much higher.

Which one do teams actually use as their budget? I had gone the offseason thinking the Orioles were underspending 2025 ($149M vs $160M on 26-man), but someone pointed out to me the CB-tax 40-man payroll is actually ~$188M this year vs ~$176M last year.

Jon Becker: Unsatisfying answer, but it really depends, and teams are going to be looking at both. But if you’re a team well under the tax line as the Orioles are, I’d guess that you’re not going to care too much about the CBT payroll because you’re not going to get up to that line anyway, and it’s not like there’s bonus points for being under by a lot vs. a little. Teams near the line have to be really careful and sometimes do use it as a soft budget or even a hard line, but smaller-payroll teams are probably working more with real dollars and cash flow per year rather than the AAV-based calculations.

Hazmat Corntail: How slim are Troy Melton’s chances of making the Tigers rotation out of camp now?

Jason Martinez: I’d say it went from 50% to 25%. Only 1 spot up for grabs now and Reese Olson has more of a track record. Just needs to be healthy.

But his chances of making the bullpen might’ve gone from 25% to 50%. The more SP depth they have, the sooner they’d be willing to put Melton in their ‘pen.

Barring a rash of injuries, though, I think they’re good with letting him start in the minors and not forcing him into the bullpen until later in the season. It’s a good problem to have.

Justin: Something I’ve noticed “talking about baseball online” is that it seems like the average fan may over weigh an awkwardness that a team has when fully healthy – like either a player has to be at a position he isnt amazing at or maybe even someone good goes to the bench.   As guys who are constantly adjusting these RR lineups during the season, do you feel good saying that there’s almost always an injury or something that helps to resolve these issues?   Overall i feel like the only thing that fans handle worse than “not having enough good players” is “having too many good players” lol.

Jon Becker: So, as a hypothetical perfectly rational concept you always want more good players, knowing that injuries happen and that teams can make the playing time work more often than not. But when roster building requires adding external players via free agency and you’re dealing with human beings, it can be hard to make that the case. For example, Austin Hays signed with a worse team for a pretty reasonable price that I’d guess other teams were offering or willing to offer, but he prioritized a place where he’s definitely going to play as long as he’s there and isn’t at risk of being platooned. Sometimes you can just offer what other teams can’t.

Also breaking news from Passan: Skubal won his arb case and will make $32M instead of $19M.

War2D2: Saw an unsubstantiated rumor shared from a Dodger blog I’d never heard of (so, you know, take it for what its worth) that the Dodgers were offering Roki, Hope, and like three other top-50 guys for Skubal. Then literally ten minutes later I found out about the Framber signing. What’s your feeling on A) whether there’s any indication that the Dodgers would empty the farm for Skubal and B) if you’re the Tigers do you do that? Seems to me trading Skubal would hasten the closure of the current window, and effectively put them on a path to a rebuild/reload that might punt 2027.

Jason Martinez: Good follow-up to the breaking news that Skubal won his arbitration case. That’s a $13MM difference to the Tigers’ payroll, which is why the Skubal trade rumors could intensify unless the Tigers come out and say he’s staying put. I’ve seen it reported that the Valdez signing and Skubal’s arb case would make no difference in whether he’s traded or not. But I don’t believe that. Asking price will be astronomical but there is one particular team that could do it.

The Dodgers would be the most logical trade partner. Not only can they take on the $32MM salary but they have the best mix of elite prospects and MLB-ready talent to send over in a trade. And unless there’s a drastic change to the CBA, the Dodgers will be the favorite to sign him next season. If they acquire him now, they’d be getting him a year early and not trading anyone who would’ve make a big difference in 2026. It would be a ton of talent, but wouldn’t really affect them now.

Justin: Do you think Marcell Ozuna ends up in Pittsburgh?  Would the offensive upgrade be worth the defensive downgrade of probably a bit too much Ryan OHearn in LF a bit too often?  I lean yes, as I think an Ozuna bounceback is on the horizon (a torn hip probably would impact me at *my* job and I sit at a desk all day), but just curious your thoughts.

Jon Becker: With how things were trending I thought it would be the Pirates or Padres, but that was before the Padres signed Andujar. The Pirates do need righty power, big time, and this version of Ozuna still provides that, but I wouldn’t want to have my DH spot completely inflexible if I was them. Would rather just trade for someone like Vientos and hope he can get better at 3B with new coaching.

Jason Martinez: Remember that Ryan O’Hearn would be playing a lot of LF or RF if Ozuna signs. If they’re fine with that, Ozuna is a fit.

t-015-284-600: Outlook for Jac Caglianone

Jason Martinez: This article on Cags from Michael Baumann is very informative … https://blogs.fangraphs.com/coming-out-of-my-cags-below-the-mendoza-li…

From a roster standpoint, they’re leaning on him to provide some left-handed power in the middle of that lineup. Carter Jensen could also be that guy. But Cags was really bad in the majors and Jensen was good. And Cags should probably be playing 1B/DH and not RF. But that’s likely where he’ll get most of his time.

Biggest question is how much of a leash they give him if he struggles early in the season. I think they’d send him back to AAA within a month. But there’s not a lot of pressure right now from other competitors for his lineup spot.

diadem: It seems to me that the Reds are kind of kicking Steer to the curb? Am i wrong?

Jon Becker: “Kicking to the curb” is pretty strong but he’s going to have to fight for playing time, yeah. I don’t see much of it coming against righties unless there’s injury, though if Marte or Bleday struggle he could get more LF/RF time. He should still play every day against lefties with Bleday on the bench.

BeHereNow: What is the story with Will Benson and Enarcacion Strand?

Jason Martinez: Both have MiLB options. As things stand, I think Benson is competing with Bleday for at-bats vs RHP. He can play all 3 OF spots so he has value as a 4th OF. But has been way too inconsistent to pencil in and expect him to play regularly.

CES is buried on the depth chart behind Suarez, Stewart, and Steer. He was really good when they brought him up in 2023. But that was a long time ago. Not sure he’ll be a DFA candidate at some point but he will be if he’s not crushing Triple-A pitching.

DFJ: How high do you think the Devers DH risk is? Imminent or perhaps years away?

Jon Becker: He was less bad at first than I thought he’d be though still below average. But he might actually stave off DH time for a while just because Eldridge might be even worse at first base, and he’s got six years of club control. That’s not to say Eldridge will be completely banned from playing the field but Devers is definitely ahead of him for now.

March on?: What does the split behind the plate look like for Philly this year? Is there a path to marchan getting more time

Jason Martinez: It was about 80/20 last season. As expected, Marchan was not very good playing once every 5 days. Realmuto will be 35 and his offensive numbers have regressed. Seems logical to get closer to a 70/30 split. Would be beneficial to both of them. And if they’re not doing that, maybe they need a better backup.

Ryan: If you were starting an MLB team from scratch, what would your team uniform/logo colors be?

Jon Becker: I will take any opportunity to say that I’m sick of almost every team wearing some combination of red, blue, and navy, and that more teams should either go the Padres route of going back to an old, more fun color scheme or rebrand as such. Marlins should be wearing pink on their uniforms all the time.

viceroy: How confident are you that Andujar is the DH against righties? Was this based on any comments from the team?

Jason Martinez: Pretty confident that he’ll be the primary option. His numbers vs RHP were good last season. But I think they’ll mix and match depending on how Song looks. Sounds like they made it clear to Song that he’d be in a bench role but I expect him to get a lot of opportunity. A lot of that will be when Machado or Sheets are DHing to get a day off of their feet.

DC51stState: second question: who is Cam Smith competing with for ABs in Houston? Any chance he returns to 3B (his minor league and college position)?  Thanks!!!

Jon Becker: Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole, and Jake Meyers (Smith is going to get some CF time in spring training), most prominently. I don’t think there were any plans to move him back to 3B anytime soon and it especially wouldn’t make much sense now with their glut of infielders. Also possible he starts back in the minors if there’s not enough playing time for him.

Insert Witty Name Here: Who is the softest tossing SP currently? Would throwing 2008 Jamie Moyer for one trip through the lineup then healthy Ben Joyce once more work on throwing off the hitters timing more so than an average No. 3 starter?

Jason Martinez: I don’t think anyone who is currently penciled into a rotation throws under 90 MPH. If Tyler Anderson signs a MLB deal, he’d probably be the lowest at 89 MPH. Bailey Ober averages 90 MPH but he’s like 6-10 so it’s a unique angle. I think arm angles and velocity differences definitely throw off hitters, which is partly why shorter stints from starting pitchers has become a thing.

White Sox: How do you think Luisangel Acuna will be utilized?  Platoon with Brooks Baldwin in CF and late game pinch runner, or something bigger?

Jon Becker: I would think something bigger, or at least give him every opportunity to be something bigger. And even if he’s nominally in a platoon with Baldwin, it’s not as if he’d never play against righties since he’s versatile.

Torrence: how incredible of a spring would McGonigle need to have in order to break camp as the starting SS?

Jason Martinez: Having a .850 OPS in Spring Training isn’t incredible for someone like McGonigle but I think that’s probably the bar to clear for what he can control. It’s a big decision for the Tigers because calling up one of the best prospects in the game means you think he’s up for good. So there will be a lot more evaluation other than a few weeks in ST stats. The roster is kind of crowded, too. If no injuries occur, my guess is that either Jahmai Jones would have to be DFAd (out of options and was really good last season) or one of Matt Vierling, Wenceel Perez, or Parker Meadows would have to be optioned to make room.

Nuxie: What’s baty,s outlook for playing time?

Jon Becker: He’s got a really clear path at least against righties, especially because he’s versatile. I’d expect him to get time at DH, third, second, left, and maybe even a little first.

Mendoza’s dilemma: Aren’t the Mets better off DHing Polanco and putting Baty at 1B?  Let Polanco focus on hitting and build off of last season, while the younger more athletic player is in the field.  Baty being a natural 3B should make the transition to 1B fairly smooth, no?

Jason Martinez: Sounds like Baty, if he’s not traded, is going to bounce around so I don’t think there is a plan to stick him at one spot. Polanco will get some DH time, but I know he’s been working at 1B and maybe exclusively there since the Mets probably won’t use him much at 2B/3B (if at all).

Oaktown Steve: Thanks for the time!  Will the Angels go “give it to the old dude with closing experience” and make Yates the guy or is Stevenson a real option there?

Jon Becker: I think they’ll see how everyone looks in spring, especially since Yates, Romano, and Stephenson all ended the season with injuries. Ben Joyce is of course the x-factor here but I haven’t seen anything on his timetable from shoulder surgery.

Guest: is there a way to see default lineup vs. lefties on the RR team pages?

Jason Martinez: We have projected platoon pages. One of our newest features that Jon built …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/tigers

Thanks!: Does a Vientos/Keller framework make any sense?

Jon Becker: Not really for either side. The Pirates probably need to add SP innings rather than trading more away now that Burrows is in Houston, and the Mets have a lot of starting pitching around the skill level of Keller so I’m not really sure what adding him would accomplish for them. I would think the Mets would want one of the prospects with minor league options, Harrington perhaps.

JB: Can you explain how (and why) you think the cards will give playing time to saggese, Gorman, and JJ after moving Donovan?

Jason Martinez: My current projection … Wetherholt (532 PA), Gorman (532 PA), Saggese (385).

If Wetherholt wins the job out of Spring Training, that will easily go to 600-650 range. But the uncertainty of it at the moment (I have him making the team but he has competition) requires that projection be lower.

Gorman has a clear path to play everyday. But there is potential to be really bad, which is why I don’t have him over 600 PA.

Saggese is probably Wetherholt’s top competition at 2B, but it sounds like they plan on utilizing his defensive versatility (2B/SS/3B/OF) so I think he’ll get plenty of at-bats even if he’s in a bench role.

Updated projections here … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=28

Biscuit: What is stopping Cole Young from getting 500 AB?

Jon Becker: Colt Emerson. I think he’ll have every chance to win a spot out of camp and even if he doesn’t he should be up early on. Young had a nice stretch for a few weeks but otherwise didn’t hit at all and Emerson looks like he’ll be a stud.

Phil: I feel like every week someone asks you what the heck the Red Sox are doing, and I guess this week it will be me. Kiner-Falefa is definitely a useful supplement to Romy González and David Hamilton (I’m now seeing rumors that González might be traded, but as always I take those with several buckets of salt). In some sense, you can kind of squint and see a daily mix of Mayer, Story, K-F, González, Hamilton, and Contreras as a defense-first infield that will hit just enough to support a team with all of its best hitters in the outifield. But that still requires us to overlook the fact that, with this roster, especially against righthanded pitchers, either one of the best overall defenders in the league (Rafaela) or one of the four best left-handed hitters on the team will be on the bench every day, while an 85 WRC+ guy is playing on the infield. Right?

Jason Martinez: I changed the roster projection 3 times after it was reported so I was also thinking “what the heck are they doing”. Here’s the latest … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

I eventually listed him in a platoon with Mayer but that more about Mayer’s uncertainty and lack of track record and IKF likely to get his playing time somewhere. He doesn’t have good numbers vs RHP or LHP. I also moved David Hamilton to the roster to give them another left-handed bat for 2B. So the other platoon options (Sogard, Eaton) didn’t fit anymore.

Not an easy one to figure out. Still have to assume they’re not done.

Ryan: Can the red sox has a tenable infield with their current players (and avoid Rafaela leaving CF), or do they need to aid a 3B or 2B?

Jon Becker: Depends what qualifies as tenable to you, but at least they have options. Story and Contreras are locked in at SS and 1B of course, and they’ve got Mayer, IKF, Gonzalez, Hamilton, Campbell between 3B and 2B. I totally get how disappointing it is to miss out on Bregman and all the other targets but they have to be cognizant about not blocking Campbell forever, too.

Friars: The return of Joe Musgrove is not getting the proper amount of hype it deserves.  It’s feasible he could re-emerge as an ace-level starter.  Agree?

Jason Martinez: He missed all of last season and was pitching thru a partially torn ligament the previous season. Understandable if people forgot how good he was from 2021-23. And then inconsistent performances like Sandy Alcantara after returning from TJ surgery remind us that they don’t always return to form right away. But I’m hoping he does resemble an ace again, at least by May or June. Padres need him.

Jason Martinez: That will do it. Thanks for joining us! Back next Thursday.