RosterResource Chat – 3/7/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat.

20 days until official Opening Day! 11 days until Dodgers-Cubs in Tokyo!

A lot of interesting position battles to discuss. Some created by injuries. Others by players putting up big numbers this spring.

Here’s the updated Opening Day Tracker …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker

And here we go …

Michael: What are your thoughts about the Tampa Bay infield/DH situation? Is Aranda or Mead the better investment this year?

Matt B.: What does the TB bench look like when Kim comes back?

Jon Becker: Welcome everyone, happy Friday! With Mead doing really well in Spring Training and having a little more positional flexibility and probably a better glove, I think he may well end up with more plate appearances this year, even as we currently have Aranda with 385 projected plate appearances to 245 for Mead. The bench when Kim is back could be Rortvedt-Mead-Walls-Caballero, assuming Caballero takes decently enough to the outfield. But there’s also the Chandler Simpson factor, he may well beat Kim to the Rays.

Jason Martinez: I am buying the hype on Mead. Moved him to the projected Opening Day roster (over Eloy) as of yesterday …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

Darren: Christian Walker has an oblique injury and is getting an MRI. Same injury cost him a month last year. He’s a 34 year old power hitter, any thoughts on how long he’s out and what Astros do during that span?

Jason Martinez: He says it’s not as bad (don’t believe players) but oblique is a tough one for a hitter. I’m holding off on moving him to the projected IL because they’re downplaying it. But it sounds like he’s getting an MRI today so we should know very soon.

Singleton will play vs RHP and it’s likely that either Caratini or Dezenzo will play 1B vs LHP.

Bob: Of the big 4 OFers of the ’23 draft, who are you currently most optimistic for over the next 2-3 years and also over the long term?

Jon Becker: I think as far as 2025 is concerned, I’m taking Langford of the Crews/Langford/Clark/Jenkins group — I doubt the latter two play in the majors at all and Langford looked great down the stretch whereas I could see a longer adjustment period for Crews based on his first taste of MLB last year. I’ll default to Eric Longenhagen’s list for a long-term answer; he’s got Crews as the third-best prospect in baseball, so I’ll say him or Langford. Big fan of Jenkins though, too, Clark would be my fourth pick there.

David Stearns: Why is Megill listed in the bullpen? He’s either starting or starting the year in Syracuse. I don’t see Brazoban among others making the team over Kranick.

EL Chupacabra: Given the comment sections on the Mets articles this week, I have to ask why you have Tylord as the long man in Queens and not a rotation option. Gotta think he’s a better option than Blackburn and Canning, no?

Jason Martinez: I’ve had Canning and Blackburn in the rotation with Megill in AAA until recent injuries. Canning/Blackburn are out of options and make $4MM+.

With that said, I think all 3 are going to be needed for multi-inning stints whether it’s as a SP or RP. Not sure it matters as much who starts and who relieves, although Megill is the only one who has done both.

Kranick is making a case. He’s also capable of throwing multiple innings.

Brazoban was really good before the Mets acquired him. We’ll see if he can regain his form.

Steve: Have a few roster decisions to make do you see any of the following making the MLB roster?

Coby Mayo
Orelvis Martinez
Bryan Ramos
Manuel Rodriguez
Joey Cantillo

Jon Becker: Of these five, we’ve only got Manuel Rodriguez on the Opening Day roster — he’s out of options and pitched great last year, so he should be assured of a spot. Of the remaining four I think Orelvis is next-likeliest, especially if Varsho isn’t ready, then Ramos (we have Gallo on the projected roster filling in for Benintendi but he’s hit terribly in Spring and they might not want to open up a 40-man spot for him), then Cantillo, then Mayo. Orioles’ position player group is so full and Mayo isn’t doing himself any favors with how he’s performed this Spring.

Robert: Why Reyes over Pereira for nyy?

Jason Martinez: Not a good sign for the Yankees when we’re debating whether Pablo Reyes or Dom Smith will make the team.

I think Pereira would be the obvious choice — they need a RHH to DH against LHP — but the problem is that he’s recovering from TJ surgery. It’s possible that putting him on the MLB roster, even just to DH, could slow down his recovery. Haven’t heard if they are considering that possibility.

Jonathan in France: What do you think the Mariners are going to do at 2B? I know that ST stats aren’t terribly important, but with the way that Ryan Bliss is playing, does he force their hand over Dylan Moore? Thanks.

Jon Becker: Yeah, I think that’s definitely possible, and it wouldn’t take a ton of forcing since they seemed to be fairly impressed by Bliss last year. Moore’s versatility is such that he’d still play a lot all over the field even if he’s not the starter at any one position.

Bob: What do you make of the first 4 weeks of college ball? I feel like Bremner and Jace L. must be dropping down boards. Is Jamie Arnold 1-1 right now? Any word on how Ethan Holiday is doing?

Jason Martinez: Other than highlights and trying to get a feel for who will be a top draft pick, I don’t follow college baseball very closely. Way too focused on MLB/MiLB. But now that we have NCAA stats, that could change …

NCAA leaderboards … https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/college?position=&type=1&stats=bat&q…

Jon Becker: I was pretty decent at following it when I was in college, but now I just cram in preparation for the draft. But having those leaderboards will certainly help even if I’m not sitting down and watching the games!

diadem: The latest on Steer? Possible that he is the DH early on until his shoulder improves? Or is a traditional DL stint most likely?

Jon Becker: Haven’t seen anything new in a few days; he just had a cortisone shot and as of March 3 he wasn’t yet throwing or hitting. Even if the cortisone shot alleviated a lot he just might not have quite enough time to get back up to speed, even if he’s healthy. My guess is it’ll be a minimum stay on the IL (so only a week of the season, since IL stints can be backdated three days) if he doesn’t get back into games soon.

Dave T: How will the Cardinals get Nolan Gorman ample playing time with Arenado still on the team?  Or maybe they won’t??

Jason Martinez: Sounds like the biggest question right now is CF (Nootbaar, Siani, or Scott). If Nootbaar wins the job, that would mean Brendan Donovan plays a lot of LF and Gorman would play 2B on most days. If not, it’s gonna be tough, although I can see them getting Gorman, Burleson, and Donovan enough at bats between 2 lineup spots.

Calvin: Any sense on A’s OD rotation?

Jon Becker: Severino, Sears, Springs have three spots for sure. Martín Gallegos wrote at the start of Spring that Bido was “well ahead” for the fourth spot, and he hasn’t been very good so far, but just 4.1 innings, so I don’t care much about that. That leaves one spot for Spence, Ginn, Estes, Hoglund, and maybe Hogan Harris. Spence, Hoglund, and Harris have pitched the best of the three so we’ve stuck with Spence all Spring considering he was pretty solid last year.

Chisox: Wirth Berroa going down with TJ susrgery, who’s the White Sox longish-term closer?

Jason Martinez: I think Leasure has a good shot to re-establish himself as the “closer of the future”. Maybe even early 2025 with the way things look.

We should have a much better idea later this season once this next wave of starting pitching prospects either arrives or flops. Once a few of them are officially converted to relievers (probably guys like Iriarte, Eder, etc.) and they can mostly focus on 2 pitches and short stints, a lot can change and they can take off quickly. Grant Taylor would probably be the most dominant reliever if he doesn’t progress as a starter.

drplantwrench: pushing aside the (un)likelihood of trading Vlad Jr. do you think one of Reid Detmers or Caden Dana plus Joswa Lugo and Nolan Schanuel is a decent framework of a trade for the Angels and Blue Jays?

Jon Becker: Like you said, Guerrero Jr. will absolutely not be traded before the start of the season, and probably not during it even if the Blue Jays are out of contention. Hard to beat the value of the QO if you’re another team and the Jays know that keeping him around could give them something of an edge in free agency. I think your proposal is about right if it’s Dana and not Detmers (way more club control), that’s five years of your post-Vlad starting first baseman and our 25th-overall prospect in Dana, plus an interesting but faraway guy in Lugo. Definitely beats the Ortiz/Hall Corbin Burnes package that I always use as a measuring stick when evaluating packages for rentals, which are always lighter than you think they’ll be.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Veteran NRIs fighting for roster spots is my favorite part of Spring. Your roster projections are invaluable as I follow who’s in and who’s out, but two questions: which of the Ins are most likely to resurrect their careers such that their next deal won’t be an NRI? And which of the Outs have the best chance to claim a spot by Opening Day? (But, hey, I’d read a whole article breaking down all the NRIs across the league, too!)

Jason Martinez: Brendan Rodgers is the first name that comes to mind. If he’s the everyday 2B with Altuve moving to LF, he could really boost his value. He’d be a free agent and only entering his age-29 season. He’s talented. Change of scenery could help.

Full list of NRIs currently on a projected roster here … https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/college?position=&type=1&stats=bat&q…

Full list of NRIs with playing time projection here … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker?season=2…

Jon Becker: That’s a good article idea, by the way, I think I might have to do that for next Friday!

Matt Canterino: Is there a minor league version of the 60-day IL? What do teams do with players on the 40-man who have yet to debut but get major injuries? It doesn’t seem like the league would force teams to add them to the major league 60-day and start their service time clicks (and pay them the MLB minimum).

Jon Becker: The minors have a seven-day IL, a 60-day IL, and a full-season IL, I believe. If I recall correctly on the 40-man have to be put on the MLB IL if they’re injured within the last 15 days before Opening Day, which would be March 11, so Canterino could still be optioned. If they need the 40-man spot, though, they could put him on the 40-man and he’d accrue MLB service and pay while he rehabs.

Will He or Warren’t He: With the Gil injury, will Will Warren be able to get a look in the NYY rotation, or is it probably set exactly as it is in the current RR chart? (barring injury)

Jason Martinez: Rotation is set, barring injuries, but Warren seems to have solidified himself as the “next in line”. And that probably hurts his chances of making the Opening Day roster, despite how good he’s pitching, since they’ll want him to continue starting every 5-6 days in AAA. Yankees will need him at some point, though. That’s almost guaranteed.

Michael: For the Guardians, what is your take on the Opening Day 2B and who ultimately is the one that bridges to Bazzana?

Idiotic Failson: When (if at all) do you think Bazzana plays for the ML club this year?

Jon Becker: We had Brito there for a long time, but he’s been really bad so far in ST (I think hitting .063 or something?) and on the Guardians preview segment of the Effectively Wild podcast the other day, Zack Meisel said he thinks it’ll be Arias. But there’ll be mixing and matching, one or both of Freeman or Schneemann will make the team and they can both play some second, and it’s not as if Brito has played himself entirely out of the picture for this year. Maybe August for Bazzana? I know he’s working hard on his defense and that needs to come around but the bat is legit.

Etc.: Where might one look to find players IL history?

Jason Martinez: We have IL history going back to 2020 (I joined FanGraphs in June 2019) … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?timeframe=all&…

I believe Baseball Prospectus has IL and injury history going back further but not 100% sure on that or if it’s for subscribers only or not.

comish4lif: Do you think any of Sagghese, LuisAngel Acuna or Deyvison de los Santos will make their opening day rosters?

Jon Becker: Likeliest to me is Saggese (especially with how Gorman’s hitting, he might just be sent to the minors again), followed by Acuña (stiff competition from Baty). Deyvison is a distant third; he’s 2-for-11 with six Ks and I think has often been part of the “B” group that enters games later.

Insert Witty Name Here: Revisiting the trade from 2019. Who would you rather have, Cristopher Sanchez or Curtis Mead?

Jason Martinez: Sanchez. He’s already close to best-case scenario and Mead is not even an established big leaguer yet. Will be interesting to see if Mead can start evening things out this year.

Jon Becker: Sánchez is up to 99 this spring after bulking up in the offseason, I think he’s gonna have a big year.

Easy E: Is Bradford firmly in the rotation for the Rangers at this point?

Jon Becker: Nope, even though he’s not doing anything to take himself out of the running, it’s just that Leiter has been so impressive. I think those are the two real contenders for the last spot after Eovaldi, Gray, Mahle, deGrom (who will officially be the SP5 to give him more days off), Rocker’s had two rough outings and Dunning is more of a swingman now.

John B: How do you see the Giants 5th starter competition shaking out. Harrison was the favorite coming into camp but Roupp is making a strong push and Birdsong is throwing 98.

Jason Martinez: Harrison came into camp with a slight edge, in my opinion, and he’s had one good start and one bad start so far. That shouldn’t put him behind the others so early in camp, but I think the inconsistency is what’s concerning for the Giants. Finishing with a few good outings in a row is important. But it will also be something to watch once the regular seasons begins. Seems like it’s only a matter of time before Roupp or Birdsong takes the job from him.

Matt Canterino: I’m already on the 40-man, so if I get optioned and put on the minor league 60-day IL, do the Twins get a 40-man spot back? Thanks!

Jon Becker: Nope, only being on the MLB 60-day IL takes you off the 40-man, but being on the MiLB 60-day IL means you don’t count against reserve limits; teams can only have 165 players active or on the 7-day IL for domestic teams.

Ben: Upon return, where do you think Neto slots into the Angels lineup?

Jason Martinez: He finished last season as the No. 2 batter and that’s where I had him penciled in earlier in the offseason. I think he’ll be there vs LHP once he’s healthy and probably somewhere in the 5-7 range vs RHP with a chance to move up. Seems like Trout, Ward, Soler will likely be 1, 3, 4 so having a lefty/switch-hitter in the 2 spot (Rengifo, Moncada, Schanuel) makes the most sense vs RHP.

Jordan: Do you think the Butler extension is a reasonable comp for Oneil Cruz? Or at least a starting point?

Jon Becker: Closer to a starting point than a comp. Butler had five years to go before free agency; Oneil only has four, so on a seven-year deal you’d have to bump up the value pretty significantly since you’d be buying out three FA years instead of two. Maybe something like 7/84 would get it done.

George: Buying Cole Henry as immediate bullpen depth in DC?

Jason Martinez: Yes I am. Like I mentioned earlier in regards to the White Sox young pitching, sometimes it all just comes together once a pitcher is told “you are now officially a relief pitcher”. Since he’s so far down the SP depth chart, it was time to do that. Looks good so far.

Cromulent: I get why Winker would be penciled in as the Mets DH, but given the limited upside, shouldn’t they at least consider giving Brett Baty a shot? Acknowledging that his MLB numbers aren’t great, but clearly the guy has nothing left to prove in the minors. If they can’t give him 150-200 AB audition they should probably just deal him away, no?

Jon Becker: I disagree on Winker having limited upside; I know his Mets tenure wasn’t great but he was really, really good with the Nationals before the trade. And you don’t give a guy $7.5M only to take his starting spot away from him before the season even starts. But you’re right that there’s not obvious playing time for Baty, though there wasn’t for Vientos once the Mets signed JDM either, and that worked out fine. If Baty makes the most of whatever opportunities he gets — he hasn’t, yet — then they’ll find playing time for him.

Matt: Does Alan Roden have a chance to make the Opening Day roster with the Jays?

Jason Martinez: Yes, especially if Varsho begins on the IL. There’s a chance Varsho is on the Opening Day roster but relegated to DH. In that case, Loperfido or Lukes or Clase are better fits because they can play CF.

But once Varsho is healthy and playing CF everyday, Roden might be a perfect fit in a corner OF spot or DH. Just about everyone in that lineup aside from Vlad Jr. and Kirk are low OBP guys and that appears to be Roden’s best skill.

Wheelhouse: Do you expect the yankees to bring in a 3B in the mid-price range via trade? I’ve seen reporting that they’re not shutting the door on trading Stroman even with Gil’s injury, and if they can shed ~half of his salary then there’s a decent number of starting-caliber 3B around the league making a salary in the $8-12M range. DBacks want to clear Suarez and play Lawlar?

Jon Becker: I don’t ever expect any trades this deep into Spring Training, though that doesn’t mean one won’t happen. Suárez in particular would surprise me since Lawlar missed a lot of time last year and they wouldn’t have much insurance behind him if he’s hurt again or struggles. But assuming Arenado is off the table, it’s pretty slim pickings otherwise. Teams rarely do this, but maybe they pounce on a Rule 5 guy who doesn’t make a team (the Rule 5 responsibility would transfer to the Yankees)? Gage Workman has had a nice Spring and might not make the domestic Opening Day roster for the Cubs.

RAGBRAI: What kind of playing time do you see Lux getting? Stats?

Jason Martinez: I have him with 490 PA, which is basically a strong-side platoon and maybe a bit more. I also think he’ll get a chance to prove he can hit LHP and get closer to 550-600 PA … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=18

Depth Charts projection (Steamer + ZIPS) has him right at the league average … 100 wRC+, .733 OPS, 11 HR, 22 2B, 6 SB. But not a long track record because of injuries so projection systems could be underestimating him.

Matt B.: How much of Quero and Teel will we see on the south side this year?

Jon Becker: A lot, even though I wouldn’t expect either to make the  Opening Day roster. Jason has them projected with the second- and third-most PAs for Sox catchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=4

Jason Martinez: If they’re not both on the roster for at least the entire 2nd half, it will be a huge disappointment. Makes sense to find out if Korey Lee is better than he’s shown so far and Thaiss is a perfectly good stop-gap. But it’s time to look ahead to 2026 and those guys are elite prospects who are close-to-MLB-ready.

Pirates: Who is going to be backup c?

Jason Martinez: Out of 780 roster spots, this might be the most difficult one for me to figure out.

Bart is clearly the starter.

Endy is coming back from injury so it didn’t make sense to have him on the bench unless he was also going to play 1B and get some DH at-bats. No indication that will happen, though.

Davis is also not an ideal backup because he should be playing everyday in AAA.

That leaves Jason Delay, who I had as the backup for most of the offseason before moving to Endy (maybe a month ago). I think he’s the safe pick. That would allow Endy/Davis to play mostly everyday in AAA to begin the season.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us. Back next Friday at the same time. Have a great weekend!